Football Championship 2014

Fr Tod Umptious

Someone started one for hurling so I though I might do the same for football.

I think Dublin are in a very strong position to become the first team since Kerry '06/'07 to win back to back titles and the first since Cork '89/'90 to do it with the same manager,

There are three main reasons for this
1. A deep and young squad
2. Having won two in quick succession, thus the "hangover" should not be as big in 2014 as it was in 2012.
3. The fact that the pool of possible winners is quiet small in 2014.

It will become clear in the Leinster Championship if Dublin are up for it again in 2014, we saw in 2012 that they were sluggish early on and everyone told us that they would get going when it mattered, but it never got going.
The same was said of Donegal in 2013, the relegation and poor Ulster displays where shurgged off to a certain extent.
I would not expect Dublin to be all that competitive in the league however, a play-off spot and safety may suit them, it will be a good opportunity for them to get some new players in, safe in the knowledge that they have a fine squad available.

Mayo are a team that I can see appearing in the final alongside Dublin again. But that comes with a huge if.
The if is if they can reporduce the commitment, intensity and focus as they have done for the past 3 yaers as they have built themselves up to where they are.
If they can do that then I don't think there are many that will stop them getting to the final again.
They do however need to have health on their side, in 2013 they were missing Doherty, Conroy and Moran for the whole season you could say, and COC will playing with a bad shoulder all season, and certainly in the final.
They are all guys who can contribute and having a fully fit squad would be an immense help to them for 2014

We will see early in the season if Mayo are up for it for another year, if they struggle to win Connaught they they will not get past the AI Semi, and they may not even get that far.
If they loose in Connaught then forget about them, they have never been a team to prosper through the back door.
I think Mayo should go out and try to win the League, winning something that has eluded them (lost finals in '07, 10, 12) would be a good boost for the Championship.

Another advantage for Mayo, if they get to the SF, is that they will play the winners of Munster or a qualifier, which looks to be the 'easier' side of the draw.
Right now the winners of Munster may do well to get into the SF.
Cork are on a rebuilding program with a new manager and 6 winter retirements.
Kerry are still going to rely on the likes of O' Mahoney, Marc O' Se, Galvin and Declan O' Sullivan. All guys who are getting older and slower as the years progress.
And they do not have the players coming through, not right now anyway.
I dobn't think that Gooch will be as influential on the 40 as he was in 2013, other teams will be more prepared for him this year, that's not saying that he will have a bad year by the way.

I can see one of the teams that don't win the Ulster Championship possibly end up in the SF v the Connaught\Qualifier

The Ulster Champions, if they keep winning, will liklely end up playing Dublin in the SF which will be a tough task (assuming that Dublin are on top form unlike 2012).
The darw is packed on one side with potential winners, Tyrone/Monaghan/Cavan, with a much easier other side with Derry and Donegal.
Any of the above that do not win Ulster could very well get a good run through the back door and make it to a AI final via the Connaught/Munster SF
The winner could end up going out in the SF to Dublin.

So in summary
Dublin to be favourites
Mayo, IF focused and healthy, to be finalists, and possible winners obviously
Cork/Kerry to get to SF at best
Ulster Champion to loose to Dublin in SF
Other Ulster team to make AI final, if Mayo are not up to it.

Not sure about some of the other counties
Galway - Good back door, will loose QF
Kildare - New management and players that voted for the outgoing guy, may make a QF
Meath - May make a QF

gpat14

Yeah it's hard to look past Dublin again.

I personally think Mayo will get to the final but will fall short again, can't help but feel the real chance was last September.

Kerry haven't won in 5 years now and look to be an ageing side with not many players coming through, yet they could still find themselves in an AI final if the draw is kind. I don't think Cork can be considered realistic contenders just yet, losing so many players to retirement and worse of all losing their most influential player. It can't help that Aidan Walsh looks set to juggle between two sports either.

Can't see Donegal in the reckoning either and I think it's too soon for Tyrone to mount a serious challenge. Winning Ulster could funnily be a disadvantage given you're likely to meet the Dubs in a semi.

So all in all I'd be surprised if anyone other than Dublin and Mayo won the AI.

I know it'll be hard for Mayo to bounce back but I think they'll breeze through Connacht and then potentially face a back door team in quarter and Cork/Kerry semi. They have every chance to make their third final in a row

Ulster will be the most competitive, any one of Down, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone or Cavan will feel they can realistically win it. Even Derry if they can build up some momentum.

It'll be interesting to see do we've any surprise packages that can build up a run and make a semi or even final (Down 2010, Wexford year before). I wouldn't rule out Monaghan taking a scalp or two again, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Kildare have to offer

Fr Tod Umptious

gpat14 wrote: »

Yeah it's hard to look past Dublin again.

I personally think Mayo will get to the final but will fall short again, can't help but feel the real chance was last September.

Kerry haven't won in 5 years now and look to be an ageing side with not many players coming through, yet they could still find themselves in an AI final if the draw is kind. I don't think Cork can be considered realistic contenders just yet, losing so many players to retirement and worse of all losing their most influential player. It can't help that Aidan Walsh looks set to juggle between two sports either.

Can't see Donegal in the reckoning either and I think it's too soon for Tyrone to mount a serious challenge. Winning Ulster could funnily be a disadvantage given you're likely to meet the Dubs in a semi.

So all in all I'd be surprised if anyone other than Dublin and Mayo won the AI.

I know it'll be hard for Mayo to bounce back but I think they'll breeze through Connacht and then potentially face a back door team in quarter and Cork/Kerry semi. They have every chance to make their third final in a row

Ulster will be the most competitive, any one of Down, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone or Cavan will feel they can realistically win it. Even Derry if they can build up some momentum.

It'll be interesting to see do we've any surprise packages that can build up a run and make a semi or even final (Down 2010, Wexford year before). I wouldn't rule out Monaghan taking a scalp or two again, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Kildare have to offer

I also think that the real chance may have been last year for Mayo in the sense that winning an AI was the next step on the ladder or on the learning curve, beaten in the semi in 2011, beaten in the final in 2012, next step win it in 2013.
However the fact that they failed to win and thus now may be at a standstill and possibly regressing will be more evident in a poor Connaught display and an early AI series etc, rather than getting to the final again and loosing.
If they get to the final again in the form that they got to it in 2013, then they will be well capable of winning it.

Tom Joad

Good post Tod - hard to disagree with much there.

Dublin for me are odds on to win Sam.

Big question over Mayo is getting the same commitment and sacrifice three years in a row - but if they get that should be another final in them.

Hard to call where Kerry will be come championship - are only 3-4 players away from being in the mix. Would expect Cork to be away for a year or two given the amount of retirements.

Of the rest of Leinster would expect Meath to have another good year. Not sure where Kildare are at tbh.

Ulster again is hardest to call - I think Tyrone are on the way down and could be taken by Down in the preliminary round. Derry could have a good year but you never know what you get with Derry but would expect them to make Ulster Final. Cavan or Monaghan could meet them there and/or have good years in the qualifiers.

ProudDUB

I honestly think that the 2014 All Ireland champo will be one of the hardest ever to predict. There are just so many big question marks hanging over all of the likely contenders, far more so than there were in recent years.

Dublin - On paper, they have the bigger and better squad than anyone else. On paper, they are well capable of repeating as winners. But we all know how hard doing back to backs are. A lot of people say that the players and mgt will have learned from the mistakes of 2012. That is true. They will. But Tyrone and Kerry won Sam seven times in eight years and yet only one of them was able to win Sam back to back once. So all that 'learning from your mistakes' lark is not as easy as it looks. You can't conjure up hunger and intensity from thin air, if it is not there to begin with.

Mayo - Very, very hard to say how they will bounce back from the heartbreak of 2013. They definitely need more fire power up front, but they are so good at the back, they may not need to be firing on all cylinders up front, all the time, to get places. Maybe their best days have come and gone. Or maybe their pride will kick in. Maybe they won't want to end their careers as two time chokers and they'll find what it takes to get them over the line in 2014. Who knows?

Tyrone and Kerry - People have been saying that their best days are behind them for a long time now. Yet in 2013 they were still at the business end of proceedings when it mattered. Is 2104 the year when it all comes to and end for them & they have to go away and do serious rebuilding? Or have they the smarts and the will to to surprise us all again? I wouldn't bet on both on them exiting the AI champo without one hell of a fight in either August or September. My money is on Kerry to make the AI final.

Donegal - How will they bounce back from what was probably one of the worst seasons ever after winning Sam? How will being in Division Two impact their prep for the AI champo? Will internal discord, their small squad and their vulnerability if key players get injured, torpedo their season again? Or, like Mayo, will pride at not being remembered for how their 2013 season ended, spur them to dig deep and come up with the goods? It may, if they can keep their main men healthy. Their panel is so small, that is a very big "if" though.

Cork and Kildare - New managers, lots of players retiring, lots of new players coming in. Both very, much an unknown quantity.

Dark horses....Cavan, Monaghan, Galway, Meath....who knows?

For what it is worth, I am going to go with Mayo, Dublin, Kerry and Tyrone in the semi finals again, with Dublin winning the final against Kerry. Bring it on !

Syferus

Apart from Dublin everyone else is in a tumble dryer near the top of the pile. Anyone from Mayo to Kildare could emerge and make a SF or final. The league will be important to a lot of sides this year.

gpat14

ProudDUB wrote: »

For what it is worth, I am going to go with Mayo, Dublin, Kerry and Tyrone in the semi finals again, with Dublin winning the final against Kerry. Bring it on !

If Mayo get to the semis vs Kerry, I'd have to fancy Mayo tbh, I know hunger and intensity levels are being questioned now but if they find themselves in the last 4 in August you'd imagine they'll be able to rediscover (or will have already rediscovered) the intensity levels or at least nearly match those intensity levels they showed in 2013 by that stage

I think if they're to be caught it would be in the first weekend in August v a qualifier, if they navigate their way to the semis via the conventional route they should do enough to meet Dublin again

My own semi predictions would be Mayo v qualifier, Dublin v qualifier

Basis for 2 qualifiers- I just think we'll have a few improved teams from 2013 who could use momentum from a few Qual wins to make semis, kind of like Tyrone last year. I think Munster and Ulster champs could be vulnerable at QF stageand not much separates teams from Kerry/Tyrone down to the likes of Kildare IMO. Mayo could be vulnerable in QF too, it really depends on how they turn up after last years disappointment. Then again they've been outstanding in QF last 3 years- arguably peaking too early?

ProudDUB

Given the number of teams that made improvements this year & the over all strength of the Ulster Chamionship in particular, I agree that one of the semi finalist could very well be a qualifier. But I don't think that more than one of them will be. I don't think that you can compare Tyrone in 2013 to the average county in the qualifiers. Tyrone were an anomaly in 2013, in that you had the All Ireland champions and a 3 time All Ireland winning squad, meeting in the first round of the provincial championships. It's not like that happens every day of the week. Tyrone were always going to do better and, go further than your average county in the qualifiers.

gpat14

ProudDUB wrote: »

Given the number of teams that made improvements this year & the over all strength of the Ulster Chamionship in particular, I agree that one of the semi finalist could very well be a qualifier. But I don't think that more than one of them will be. I don't think that you can compare Tyrone in 2013 to the average county in the qualifiers. Tyrone were an anomaly in 2013, in that you had the All Ireland champions and a 3 time All Ireland winning squad, meeting in the first round of the provincial championships. It's not like that happens every day of the week. Tyrone were always going to do better and, go further than your average county in the qualifiers.

To be fair they'd a few close calls in the qualifiers, I remember Kildare had them on the rack at one stage in the second half and was more down to their own failings they lost that one

Scraped past Meath too (not a bad result tbh), and even Roscommon. While they did well to recover after a first round exit and go all the way to the semis, I still never really overly impressed with them bar the first 15 v Mayo where I thought they played brilliantly. They were lucky in that any other QF draw and they were gone more than likely

2014 could well follow a similar pattern to 2010 in that it could become all about the qualifiers, especially if Mayo aren't the force of 11/12/13.

Bear in mind, for example if same teams win provinces again (Dublin, Monaghan, Mayo, Kerry), the likes of Donegal, Tyrone, Cork, Kildare, Meath, Down will all be qualifiers. None will be easily beaten, and you also have some tricky teams like Laois, Cavan, Derry or even Galway if they can finally perform.

I can't help but feel 2014 could either be the most exciting championship in years, especially if Mayo and Dublin don't reach 2013 levels, or it could be a letdown for neutrals, if both do reach or even exceed 2013 levels I can see both nearly strolling to final. Can't wait anyway, I think the league will be very intriguing first

aveytare

Niall Morgan's back in goal for Tyrone which is a bit of a bonus for us. McConnell was poor against Mayo - I felt throughout the qualifiers that Morgan's injury would end up coming back to haunt us though it was obviously not the only reason Tyrone lost in the sf. Hopefully Harte gives some of our young forwards a bit more of a chance this year - there are good young players there though in fairness a few were recovering from injury last year which always seems to be the way with Tyrone forwards. It'd be nice to see a bit more positivity in attack next year - e.g. I thought Tyrone played great attacking football in '08 without a few of our marquee forwards so it's not as if Harte's not capable of setting the team out that way.

Fr Tod Umptious

gpat14 wrote: »

If Mayo get to the semis vs Kerry, I'd have to fancy Mayo tbh, I know hunger and intensity levels are being questioned now but if they find themselves in the last 4 in August you'd imagine they'll be able to rediscover (or will have already rediscovered) the intensity levels or at least nearly match those intensity levels they showed in 2013 by that stage

If Mayo, or any other team, does not have the intensity and hunger from the start then they will not 'discover' it at the semi final stage.
See Dublin 2012, Donegal 2013.

Based on what we saw in 2013 I'd fully expect Mayo to beat Kerry in a semi final.
They are younger, fitter, have better backs and a better midfield and a much stronger bench.

deadybai

Ulster- Tyrone and Donegal final for me. Obviously its hard to leave Monaghan out of the final but I don't think they were all that strong last year. Id say they do well in the qualifiers . I hope I'm wrong as Monaghan is my adopted football team, seen as Kilkenny don't feature in the football championship. I hope Cavan can progress this year as well they were impressive last year and the experience of Croker would have been fantastic.

Leinster- Cant look past Dublin and a Meath final again with the Dubs winning.

Munster- Kerry were very flat up until the semi-final but somehow managed to get there by not playing well. Im going to go with a Cork and Kerry Final with this time the Rebels coming out on top. Think Kerry will still have a say in the championship.

Connacht- Well its really Mayo against who ever else with Mayo winning. You'd have to feel bad for the Mayo team playing in that provincial championship and then having such disappointments. Dont think London will do as well next year. Hope they do as that would be some achievement.

Overall. I do think this years championship will be competitive but I just think Dublin will win it outright. I do think Cork, Kerry, Tyrone, Donegal will all make a impact somehow. Mayo should have it in them to get to another final they are a good team. Dublin are so strong though its unfair :P.

corny

I'd be surprised if Dublin match the level they reached last year. They may still have enough but they won't win it convincingly as many suggest. More likely they lose a semi imo.

Don't fancy Mayo to match last years level either and i don't think they have enough in hand in terms of ability to compensate for that. Same as Dublin surprised if they win it.

Kerry will have lots righting them off again but i'd make them tentative favourites. Much to my surprise they didn't weaken against Dublin last year so the talk of ageing legs isn't justified. Break of ball needs to go their this time but they're certainly capable.

It'll be interesting to see what level Donegal and Cork reach. The cracks Donegal showed last year lead me to believe they'll never recapture the form of 2012 but they'll still be a threat i'd imagine.

Tyrone won't lose by much but they will find one too good.

Dirty Dingus McGee

I think Dublin could go on and do a Kilkenny this year and absolutely hammer everybody they meet.They will be stronger this year compared to last whereas all their major rivals in my opinion are going backwards.

I hope Galway finally have a good run and get to the quarter finals they have been too successful at underage level over the last year to be continually putting in such mediocre championship performances.Hopefully Cavan can push on from their good year last year, they have some lovely footballers and Gearoid McKiernan will play this year which will be a big boost to them.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

3 brief things I just want to say, if Mayo met Kerry this season I think they would have mullered them. I don't mean they would've hammered them, but they would have stifled all their scoring threats and won by 3/4 imo. Kerry will be weaker next season, Mayo potentially stronger depending on how they bounce back. All their players are still in their prime and there's one good year left in Barry Moran. If he does come back it'll be interesting to see where A'OS plays, as I think S'OS is undoubtedly the better midf. Probably CF for Aidan, which would address probably their weakest position imo.

Also, I think Cork are 'sleeping giants' (of sorts). Their panel is still outstanding, the only major loss they incurred is Sheehan, but O' Neill returning should cover that. Counihan was never a good enough manager to take advantage of Cork during their prime, so it'll be very interesting to see how Cuthbert does. Wouldn't be surprised to see them win Munster and be in Croker next September. Certainly a team to watch out for in the league.

As for the championship, I think it's between Dublin, Mayo and Donegal again, and maybe Cork, depending on how their perform under Cuthbert. The rest won't come near them. Dublin the early favourites obviously, but if Mayo build on last season I would fancy them.

gpat14

THFC wrote: »

Kerry will be weaker next season

Agree

Fr Tod Umptious

THFC wrote: »

3 brief things I just want to say, if Mayo met Kerry this season I think they would have mullered them. I don't mean they would've hammered them, but they would have stifled all their scoring threats and won by 3/4 imo. Kerry will be weaker next season, Mayo potentially stronger depending on how they bounce back. All their players are still in their prime and there's one good year left in Barry Moran. If he does come back it'll be interesting to see where A'OS plays, as I think S'OS is undoubtedly the better midf. Probably CF for Aidan, which would address probably their weakest position imo.

Also, I think Cork are 'sleeping giants' (of sorts). Their panel is still outstanding, the only major loss they incurred is Sheehan, but O' Neill returning should cover that. Counihan was never a good enough manager to take advantage of Cork during their prime, so it'll be very interesting to see how Cuthbert does. Wouldn't be surprised to see them win Munster and be in Croker next September. Certainly a team to watch out for in the league.

As for the championship, I think it's between Dublin, Mayo and Donegal again, and maybe Cork, depending on how their perform under Cuthbert. The rest won't come near them. Dublin the early favourites obviously, but if Mayo build on last season I would fancy them.

Cork will play the Munster final at home to Kerry (more than likely)
Kerry never fare as well in Cork as they do in Killarney so I'd give Cork the edge in the Munster championship.
I actually Cork are in a better position than Kerry right now
The 6 retirements have forced the management to make changes.

I still think Fitzmaurice in Kerry is going to go back to the relying on his old cahrges this year and thus put back a proper ovehaul for another yaer.

He should really rest all the veterans for the whole of the league and take relegation on the chin if it comes.
It will give al lot of young guys a chance to really show that they have.
Div 2 football will not set Kerry back the way it does other counties

gpat14

I think this year will be too soon for Cork though I see them potentially as Dublin's main rivals over the next couple of years after this one.

Always_Running

Some Cork supporters have told me Cuthbert isn't much of step up on Counihan if at all. Cork have won the last three Munster U-21 titles so clearly they have plenty of talent coming through however a raft of experienced players has left their panel and 2014 is a transition year and semi final appearance will be a good year for them.

Fr Tod Umptious

With the league in the books and the Championship starting in NY on Sunday I thought it was about time to drag this thread up.

Dublin look like the team to win the All Ireland, they have the squad, the experience, and to be honest the competition is not that great.
Could they slip up, of course they could, but it would have to be in the All Ireland series, when they will not have a second chance to reg-group.

Who Dublin could meet in the final is a bit less clear cut.

Connaught play Munster this year so it’s very open on that side of the draw

Kerry are certainly rebuilding and are a number of years away from a final appearance if you ask me, the loss of Donaghy for a few months at least weakens their squad even more so.

Cork had a good league but I have always been of the impression that they were playing much closer to championship level than other teams.
They really got turned over by Dublin in the league SF and I think that performance is closer to where they are at right now.

Mayo failed miserably to do what they had publically had set out to do i.e. win the league. They failed to guarantee a SF spot in the draw v 14 man Dublin and then failed to get a final spot v 14 man Derry.
Both of those games indicate to me that this current squad and management may be out of puff physically and mentally and not able to get up to, and improve on, the performances of 2012 and 2013.

The above three teams all have enough question marks around them to suggest that they may fall at the QF or SF hurdle.

The dark horse here is Ulster, which is an impossible championship to pick a winner from.

A big beneficiary of weaknesses in Kerry, Cork and Mayo may be an Ulster championship looser. The Ulster winner may well win a QF and have to face Dublin in a SF, but the looser, assuming they avoid Dublin in a QF could have a good opportunity to get to a final via the Munster/Connaught SF

It will be interesting

iDave

Normally cant wait for the championship to start but feeling a bit meh about the whole thing. Even if my own county isn't in the running its good to follow as a neutral but Dublin seem to have it wrapped up already.
Feel free to quote this in September if they don't.
Its a shame as football as been quite open for a long time. Last year people were talking about as many as 6 teams in with a shout.
In the provincials I cant see Kildare or Meath having enough to overcome Dublin in Leinster.
Mayo have a Connacht bought and paid for and Munster will be the usual duopoly with the loser of Cork/Kerry winning a Rd 4 Qualifier.
Ulster seems to be the only championship that's properly wide open.
The qualifiers could see some relatively big names go early enough. They are being split into 2 groups with Tyrone/Down/Monaghan/Armagh/Cavan/Meath/Kildare all on one side depending who loses in the provincials.
All a side show though until the inevitable in September, but at least it will live and in stunning high definition on Sky.

Prop Joe

Up North - Monaghan to beat Derry in the final

Out West - The Rossies to win the Nestor beating Sligo in the final

Down South - Kerry to get a scare v Clare in the semi before Cork taking the title

In the East - Dublin to cruise to the title beating the Royals in the final


Mayo,Donegal,Kerry and a wildcard to join the provincial winners in the quarters

Dublin to capture back to backs after a few close calls in the QF and Semi

ProudDUB

On paper, I think Dublin should be able to go all the way again. They have the best players, the best over all squad, the best manager. Most importantly, they also have key game changing players who can step up on the big day when it counts. You won't win an All Ireland without at least one of those. But history says that we will not repeat as winners & history is hard to ignore. I know that people say that we have the mistakes made in 2012 to draw from and, they won't be made again. But Kerry and Tyrone could say the same thing a couple of years after each of their AI wins, yet neither of them were able to put together back to back wins, with the same squad and management team. So I dunno....

I don't think that those old chestnuts of hunger and complacency will be to blame if we don't win Sam again. Gavins mgt style and the competition for places will see to that. But if we do get knocked out, I think it could be due to one of those damm slow starts of ours. Play as we did in the first half against Cork again, and a more ruthless team will have no problem putting us to the sword. It could happen anytime from the Leinster final onwards. We could be very vulnerable in the quarter final stages imo. I could see a big battle there, if we come up against a tough, battle hardened team who have come thru a rough road in the qualifiers & we don't quite have our September game faces & Kevlar on.

Ulster - I honestly don't know. Donegal were my dark horse to win it and make it all the way to the semis. But they looked so apathetic against Monaghan on Sunday, I am not sure if they have the legs or the stomach for another grueling campaign. Tyrone will be there or thereabouts as usual. Would not be a bit surprised if one of Cavan, Derry or Monaghan take out one one of big guns along the way.

Munster & Connaught - Cork and Mayo for me. But when it comes to Sam, I think it is a year too late for Mayo and a year too early for Cork. If Kerry (especially James O'D) are firing on a good day, they could deffo take out one of the main contenders, if they are having a bad day. But with the recent retirements and injuries, I don't think they have what it takes to go all the way anymore.

keane2097

Dublin are easily the best team this year, and will win handily barring a systems failure at QF or SF stage.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Ulster - I have a feeling that Derry will be there or thereabouts with a home draw against Donegal and then taking on the winner of Antrim and Fermanagh to get to the final. Of course Donegal, Monaghan and Tyrone will have something to say about that, but I feel it could be Derry's year. Armagh have regressed too much imo and Cavan are not the finished article.

Leinster - You can't really look past Dublin here. They have the easier side of the draw this year, with Kildare and Meath set to take one of each other out. Laois might test the Dubs for 45 minutes, Wexford have collapsed altogether and were lucky to stay in Div 3.

Munster - Unfortunately its not worth talking about anybody other than The Big Two as usual. Cork were impressive in the league up until half way through their semi final against Dublin, but I still feel they will put one over on the Kingdom.

Connacht - Sligo never quite kicked on from their successful spell a few years back, but will give a Galway team in turmoil a run for their money. A Rossie team on the up should see off Leitrim, but its hard to see them dealing with a Mayo team who beat them by 12 points last year without ever really putting the foot down. Mayo should go on to win it.

Overall, I think Dublin should win this again, unless they are shocked in Leinster and get a dirty draw somewhere up the country (Donegal or Tyrone in Clones, Cork/Kerry in Nenagh) but in Croker they're looking almost invincible, save their loss to Cork in the league. I'm not one to crow about them never having to leave their own back yard for a game and I'm not getting into the argument over whether other counties want to play there too, but its an undeniable advantage. That said, I think they are the best team in the country, if they pull off two in a row, it'll be well deserved.

Dark horses for a run through the qualifiers: Limerick, Laois, Cavan, Roscommon, Tipperary, Down

ciarriaithuaidh

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Ulster - I have a feeling that Derry will be there or thereabouts with a home draw against Donegal and then taking on the winner of Antrim and Fermanagh to get to the final. Of course Donegal, Monaghan and Tyrone will have something to say about that, but I feel it could be Derry's year. Armagh have regressed too much imo and Cavan are not the finished article.

Leinster - You can't really look past Dublin here. They have the easier side of the draw this year, with Kildare and Meath set to take one of each other out. Laois might test the Dubs for 45 minutes, Wexford have collapsed altogether and were lucky to stay in Div 3.

Munster - Unfortunately its not worth talking about anybody other than The Big Two as usual. Cork were impressive in the league up until half way through their semi final against Dublin, but I still feel they will put one over on the Kingdom.

Connacht - Sligo never quite kicked on from their successful spell a few years back, but will give a Galway team in turmoil a run for their money. A Rossie team on the up should see off Leitrim, but its hard to see them dealing with a Mayo team who beat them by 12 points last year without ever really putting the foot down. Mayo should go on to win it.

Overall, I think Dublin should win this again, unless they are shocked in Leinster and get a dirty draw somewhere up the country (Donegal or Tyrone in Clones, Cork/Kerry in Nenagh) but in Croker they're looking almost invincible, save their loss to Cork in the league. I'm not one to crow about them never having to leave their own back yard for a game and I'm not getting into the argument over whether other counties want to play there too, but its an undeniable advantage. That said, I think they are the best team in the country, if they pull off two in a row, it'll be well deserved.

Dark horses for a run through the qualifiers: Limerick, Laois, Cavan, Roscommon, Tipperary, Down

ProudDUB

I think he means having to play a qualifier game at a neutral venue. Perhaps he meant Semple Stadium in Thurles?

The last round of the qualifiers (that the beaten provincial finalists play in) are played in Croke Park, aren't they? So even Dublin are beaten in the Leinster final, their qualifier game would still be in Croker. Could deffo see Meath putting it up to us in the final, if we are off form that day. But I can't really see any nasty surprises waiting for us in the first couple of rounds of the Leinster champo.

ciarriaithuaidh

ProudDUB wrote: »

I think he means having to play a qualifier game at a neutral venue. Perhaps he meant Semple Stadium in Thurles?

The last round of the qualifiers (that the beaten provincial finalists play in) are played in Croke Park, aren't they? So even Dublin are beaten in the Leinster final, their qualifier game would still be in Croker. Could deffo see Meath putting it up to us in the final, if we are off form that day. But I can't really see any nasty surprises waiting for us in the first couple of rounds of the Leinster champo.

Oh, come on. Dublin are not going to be beaten in Leinster and are not going to play outside Croke park fir the foreseeable future.

Lemlin

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Oh, come on. Dublin are not going to be beaten in Leinster and are not going to play outside Croke park fir the foreseeable future.

Bernard Brogan has never played a Championship game outside Croke Park so I'd totally agree. How many other footballers with careers as long as his can say that?

ProudDUB wrote: »

The last round of the qualifiers (that the beaten provincial finalists play in) are played in Croke Park, aren't they? So even Dublin are beaten in the Leinster final, their qualifier game would still be in Croker. Could deffo see Meath putting it up to us in the final, if we are off form that day. But I can't really see any nasty surprises waiting for us in the first couple of rounds of the Leinster champo.

The last round of qualifiers aren't always played in Croke Park. It depends on the teams taking part.

ciarriaithuaidh

Lemlin wrote: »

Bernard Brogan has never played a Championship game outside Croke Park so I'd totally agree. How many other footballers with careers as long as his can say that?



The last round of qualifiers aren't always played in Croke Park. It depends on the teams taking part.

Yeah I know. In fairness, even a 2/3 full Croker is worth a lot of €€€, so moving games to a smaller venue wouldn't make sense from that point of view. It might be good to have a Leinster c/ship game every 2 years outside Croke park in somewhere like O'Moore Park. Holds around 25k or so, so still a decent crowd and would be a cracking atmosphere for a game on a Saturday evening.

Before criticising Dublin too much for this people need to realise that the other Leinster counties invariably like to play in Croker aswell. It's not just Dublin getting their own way all the time.

ProudDUB

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Oh, come on. Dublin are not going to be beaten in Leinster and are not going to play outside Croke park fir the foreseeable future.

Come on where? We have had several very competitive Leinster finals over the past few years. We lost to Meath in 2010. We beat Kildare by a point in 2011. We needed a dodgy own goal from the keeper to beat the Wexicans in 2012. Last years final against Meath, was only a two pt affair at half time. None of that is opinion. It is fact.

I never said that we were definitely going to lose. I said that we could lose, if we play as poorly as we did in the first half against Cork. If the players think that all they need do is show up, they are gonna get a nasty wake up call sooner rather than later.

deadybai

The thing with Dublin is that they are the complete team. They have so many players that can come off the bench and make an impact. The subs coming on are just as good as the players coming off. I'd love to see Mayo finally win it. I still think they have a chance. however I will be puting my money on a Cork and Dublin final. Even with Dublins dominance of late Id say that game would be hard to call.

harpsman

ProudDUB wrote: »

Come on where? We have had several very competitive Leinster finals over the past few years. We lost to Meath in 2010. We beat Kildare by a point in 2011. We needed a dodgy own goal from the keeper to beat the Wexicans in 2012. Last years final against Meath, was only a two pt affair at half time. None of that is opinion. It is fact.

I never said that we were definitely going to lose. I said that we could lose, if we play as poorly as we did in the first half against Cork. If the players think that all they need do is show up, they are gonna get a nasty wake up call sooner rather than later.

lol-you beat kildare in 09, the og was not by the keeper and that was '11.
you beat meath in '12. last yrs final WAS a 2 point affair at half time but you were actually losing.
keep those facts coming:eek:

Gary Neville

Ulster - The Donegal v Derry game indicates how difficult it is to predict Ulster. It's guess work but I take Donegal to improve and take Ulster.

Leinster - No contest - Dublin.

Munster - You can never write-off Kerry but the home side usually wins in Cork v Kerry. Cork are at home this season so should shade it.

Connaught - Hard to know where Mayo are but should take Connaught again.

It's a repeat of last year for me - a Mayo v Dublin Final with the same result.

Fr Tod Umptious

ProudDUB wrote: »

On paper, I think Dublin should be able to go all the way again. They have the best players, the best over all squad, the best manager. Most importantly, they also have key game changing players who can step up on the big day when it counts. You won't win an All Ireland without at least one of those. But history says that we will not repeat as winners & history is hard to ignore. I know that people say that we have the mistakes made in 2012 to draw from and, they won't be made again. But Kerry and Tyrone could say the same thing a couple of years after each of their AI wins, yet neither of them were able to put together back to back wins, with the same squad and management team. So I dunno....

I don't think that those old chestnuts of hunger and complacency will be to blame if we don't win Sam again. Gavins mgt style and the competition for places will see to that. But if we do get knocked out, I think it could be due to one of those damm slow starts of ours. Play as we did in the first half against Cork again, and a more ruthless team will have no problem putting us to the sword. It could happen anytime from the Leinster final onwards. We could be very vulnerable in the quarter final stages imo. I could see a big battle there, if we come up against a tough, battle hardened team who have come thru a rough road in the qualifiers & we don't quite have our September game faces & Kevlar on.

Ulster - I honestly don't know. Donegal were my dark horse to win it and make it all the way to the semis. But they looked so apathetic against Monaghan on Sunday, I am not sure if they have the legs or the stomach for another grueling campaign. Tyrone will be there or thereabouts as usual. Would not be a bit surprised if one of Cavan, Derry or Monaghan take out one one of big guns along the way.

Munster & Connaught - Cork and Mayo for me. But when it comes to Sam, I think it is a year too late for Mayo and a year too early for Cork. If Kerry (especially James O'D) are firing on a good day, they could deffo take out one of the main contenders, if they are having a bad day. But with the recent retirements and injuries, I don't think they have what it takes to go all the way anymore.

I think that sums it up perfectly.

ProudDUB

harpsman wrote: »

lol-you beat kildare in 09, the og was not by the keeper and that was '11.
you beat meath in '12. last yrs final WAS a 2 point affair at half time but you were actually losing.
keep those facts coming

God, I really am crap at remembering years. We've had so many long summer lately, can you blame me for getting them mixed up?

Anyway, we did beat Kildare by a pt in 2011. BB won a late free. Am certain of that. But it was the semi, not the final.

In the final against Wexford, Anthony Masterson went to punch out a shot on goal by Mossy Quinn. The ball took a ricochet off his own defender & wound up in the back of the net. Masterson blamed himself after the game, even if he wasn't the last person to touch the ball. Anyway, what does it matter who got the blame for it? It was still a freakish goal, that was the only difference between the teams on the day. Which was my point all along.

We beat Meath in the final in 2012. Again, a single goal was the difference between the teams. We beat them again in 2013. I know I said it was a two pt game at half time. I never said whether or not we were winning or losing at the time.

Bottom line is, Dublin winning Leinster finals have rarely been easy or impressive. If we go into this year final (presuming that we make it that far) and we fail to get out of second gear, we could have a nasty surprise waiting for us. That is all I am saying.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

ProudDUB wrote: »

I think he means having to play a qualifier game at a neutral venue. Perhaps he meant Semple Stadium in Thurles?

The last round of the qualifiers (that the beaten provincial finalists play in) are played in Croke Park, aren't they? So even Dublin are beaten in the Leinster final, their qualifier game would still be in Croker. Could deffo see Meath putting it up to us in the final, if we are off form that day. But I can't really see any nasty surprises waiting for us in the first couple of rounds of the Leinster champ.

Thank you, Thurles is what I meant, not Nenagh, lol I've always mixed the two up.

Youre spot on about the quarter finals too, hadn't thought of that. Its a pity, as many Dubs fans I know reckon they'd relish an away fixture in the championship in Cork, Killarney, Salthill etc.

Gary Neville

It's dangerous to predict that a team will dominate. Cork and Donegal were one season wonders.

But Dublin look set tom dominate - superbly organised at all levels - dominant at U21. Massive funding. Home advantage and great pick. Excellent management.

If they win the U21 - they will hold Sam, NFL, Leinster Senior Title and U21 Title & AI Club Title - the only one missing is the Minor Title.

With the converyor of youth talent, Dublin could be set to dominate for the next decade, at least.

It's hard to know if Mayo are past their peak. Cork have enjoyed relative success at U21 level but are a long way off Dublin at this stage - can they bridge the gap in a year or so ?

It looks as if Dublin are way ahead and it could be tough for anyone to bridge the gap.

Lemlin

Gary Neville wrote: »

It's dangerous to predict that a team will dominate. Cork and Donegal were one season wonders.

But Dublin look set tom dominate - superbly organised at all levels - dominant at U21. Massive funding. Home advantage and great pick. Excellent management.

If they win the U21 - they will hold Sam, NFL, Leinster Senior Title and U21 Title & AI Club Title - the only one missing is the Minor Title.

With the converyor of youth talent, Dublin could be set to dominate for the next decade, at least.

It's hard to know if Mayo are past their peak. Cork have enjoyed relative success at U21 level but are a long way off Dublin at this stage - can they bridge the gap in a year or so ?

It looks as if Dublin are way ahead and it could be tough for anyone to bridge the gap.

How have Dublin been dominant at U21 level? Longford knocked them out in the first round last year. This year I expect Roscommon to beat them in the final.

I'd be wary of predicting teams to dominate. Alot expected the likes of Donegal in the past to dominate and they've regressed.

There's alot of effort put into training and its hard to motivate yourself to go back again after a long hard season where you've attained your ultimate goal.

Prop Joe

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Yeah I know. In fairness, even a 2/3 full Croker is worth a lot of €€€, so moving games to a smaller venue wouldn't make sense from that point of view.

Croker only makes money from Leinster Finals and All Ireland Semi's & Finals ,There are plenty stadia around the country that can host games involving all counties including the Dubs.

keane2097

I don't consider profit maximisation a valid argument in favour of the most biased scheduling in any sport I'm aware of.

The fact that the organisation is ostensibly "amateur" makes it absolutely laughable.

harpsman

ProudDUB wrote: »

God, I really am crap at remembering years. We've had so many long summer lately, can you blame me for getting them mixed up?

Anyway, we did beat Kildare by a pt in 2011. BB won a late free. Am certain of that. But it was the semi, not the final.

In the final against Wexford, Anthony Masterson went to punch out a shot on goal by Mossy Quinn. The ball took a ricochet off his own defender & wound up in the back of the net. Masterson blamed himself after the game, even if he wasn't the last person to touch the ball. Anyway, what does it matter who got the blame for it? It was still a freakish goal, that was the only difference between the teams on the day. Which was my point all along.

We beat Meath in the final in 2012. Again, a single goal was the difference between the teams. We beat them again in 2013. I know I said it was a two pt game at half time. I never said whether or not we were winning or losing at the time.

Bottom line is, Dublin winning Leinster finals have rarely been easy or impressive. If we go into this year final (presuming that we make it that far) and we fail to get out of second gear, we could have a nasty surprise waiting for us. That is all I am saying.

Rub it in why dont you:mad:
I know you ve had tight games in Leinster in the past but Dublin are improving all the time with their best players at their peak, new young players coming through with underage success behind them and the likes of OGara adding a great option when plan A isnt firing-look at the difference he made in last years AIF.
So really, talking about games from 3 years ago isnt really relevant. I do agree with you that compacency is their biggest enemy at this stage-problem for the rest of us is that if Dublin did get caught in Leinster they wont make the same mistake twice-so I hope you have your possible off day at quarter final stage:)

keane2097

Dublin in 2014 look a very, very different proposition to Dublin in 2010, '11, '12.

harpsman

Lemlin wrote: »

How have Dublin been dominant at U21 level? Longford knocked them out in the first round last year. This year I expect Roscommon to beat them in the final.

I'd be wary of predicting teams to dominate. Alot expected the likes of Donegal in the past to dominate and they've regressed.

There's alot of effort put into training and its hard to motivate yourself to go back again after a long hard season where you've attained your ultimate goal.

Well theyve won 2 of the last 4. If they win this one then its 3/5 which definately counts as domination. Even if they lose 2/5 and a losing final is still q strong.
Nobody expected Donegal to dominate after their win-sure as champions you had to see them beaten, but it was almost universally agreed that they did well to get their one all ireland. cork,however I did expect to push on after theirs.
GAA(football) tends to be cyclical with counties coming from nowhere, having a few good years,depending on their resources, and then fading. The 2 exceptions to this has been Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry having more success relative to the size of the county, and Dublin having less success than they should,considering size etc.
However it looks as if those exceptions are no more with Kerry having a 5 year and counting "famine":) and a team in decline,and Dublin finally producing the teams that their population should give.

Prop Joe

Prop Joe wrote: »

Croker only makes money from Leinster Finals and All Ireland Semi's & Finals ,There are plenty stadia around the country that can host games involving all counties including the Dubs.

Leinster QF
Double Header - Dublin v Westmeath & Kildare v Offaly - 33,000 - take a quarter of the attendance away for the first game and the Dublin v Westmeath could of easily been played in Nowlan Park or O'Moore Park

All Ireland QF 1
Double Header - Cork v Dublin & Tyrone v Monaghan - 70,000 - take a quarter of the attendance away for the first game and the Dublin v Cork game could of been held in Semple or Limerick

ciarriaithuaidh

Prop Joe wrote: »

Leinster QF
Double Header - Dublin v Westmeath & Kildare v Offaly - 33,000 - take a quarter of the attendance away for the first game and the Dublin v Westmeath could of easily been played in Nowlan Park or O'Moore Park

All Ireland QF 1
Double Header - Cork v Dublin & Tyrone v Monaghan - 70,000 - take a quarter of the attendance away for the first game and the Dublin v Cork game could of been held in Semple or Limerick

They can't hold any 1/4 final (or semi) in anywhere other than Croker. This is part of the agreement with Corporate and 10 year ticket holders, although they could obviously be accomodated with tickets if games were held elsewhere,but it ain't going to happen.
I would agree, would be great if 1/4s could be played at provincial venues and if you look at my earlier posts ITT I said I would like to see the Dubs play outside Croker occasionally also.

Gary Neville

Lemlin wrote: »

How have Dublin been dominant at U21 level? Longford knocked them out in the first round last year. This year I expect Roscommon to beat them in the final.

I'd be wary of predicting teams to dominate. Alot expected the likes of Donegal in the past to dominate and they've regressed.

There's alot of effort put into training and its hard to motivate yourself to go back again after a long hard season where you've attained your ultimate goal.

Dublin won their 1st AI U21 title in 2003 but their efforts in recent years are really bearing fruit. The big thing from their point of view is that they are producing quality senior players from their U21 sides. 7 of the current U21 side are on the Senior Panel and another 1 or 2 injures. That's exceptional considering the strength of their senior panel.

I stated that it's dangerous to predict domination but with Dublin, I think it's possible for a variety of reasons. The competition for places in the squad means that no one can ease up. Their arrival as a force coincides with a relative dip by Tyrone and Kerry and the liklihood that Mayo are past their peak.

aidan24326

Gary Neville wrote: »

Their arrival as a force coincides with a relative dip by Tyrone and Kerry and the liklihood that Mayo are past their peak.

Not sure Mayo are 'past their peak' as such, I think they'll be thereabouts again but considering it's almost exactly the same Mayo team as the last 2 years I suspect the shortcomings that caused them to fail in 2012 and 2013 will probably be the same ones that see them fall short again this year. They don't have the strength in depth that Dublin have and don't have a match-winning forward like Bernard Brogan.

Right now Dublin are streets ahead and that's partly due to a lack of potential challengers too it must be said, unless some team unexpectedly emerges from the pack like Clare hurlers last year. Hard to know who that could be though. But take Dublin out of the equation and there's surely an All-Ireland Final place up for grabs for whoever wants it. Not that much quality overall.

keane2097

Mayo IMO hit the maximum performance level they've hit in my lifetime against Donegal last year.

If they produce a performance at or above that level again in the next five years I'll be pretty surprised.

corny

keane2097 wrote: »

Mayo IMO hit the maximum performance level they've hit in my lifetime against Donegal last year.

If they produce a performance at or above that level again in the next five years I'll be pretty surprised.

Why?

keane2097

corny wrote: »

Why?

I think it was an over-achievement by them based on fanatical workrate and intensity that I don't see them being able to replicate again.

Add in the fact that their shooting return on that particular day was high to the point of being pretty much an anomaly, which again I don't think they'll ever reproduce (some might be interested - http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2013/08/13/donegal-v-mayo-2013/).