Saturday 28th December

Francie Barrett

Two for me tomorrow, one I have already got on, the other I am waiting on prices, so write up to come.

Chepstow 2:35 - Vintage Star (16/1)

Can't understand for the life of me why Vintage Star isn't among the favourites for tomorrow, perhaps the stable isn't as sexy as others, I don't know. What I do know is that everything is clicking into place for this horse tomorrow. Horse was narrowly beaten last time out by Hey Big Spender after some horrific jumping. The trip that time out was 3 mile dead, so with an extra 5 furlongs, Vintage Star should have better staying power than Hey Big Spender (who also happens to be competing in this race tomorrow. Ground is absolutely key for this horse, and the early going reports of heavy ground is ideal for this horse, who has won over heavy ground over 3m 1f the time before last. My favourite chasing jockey at the moment (Ryan Mania) takes the ride, so no worries whatsoever on that front - these chasing slogs over awful ground are just the kind of races that he relishes. Check out his record this season as well, he's showing some nice profit, especially in chases and you always know he will give everything to at least get you the place.

Only real negative is the jumping. It's not a case of whether the horse will makes mistakes or not (because it will), the question is whether the mistakes will be bad enough to prevent it from winning. At 16/1, I am going to take the chance.

Second pick is at Leopardstown, just waiting to see the lay of the land with prices before I throw out my write up.

Clonsuttonlad

Will be having a big bet on Lord Windermere tomorrow at 10-1.


Can't for the life of me understand why he is more than double the price of Unioniste .

the groutch

Mail De Bievre seems to be nicely weighted off 140 in the 3:10 @ Chepstow

SRFC

I see a group one winning flat horse is running around Catterick tomorrow where did it all go wrong :pac:

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

I see a group one winning flat horse is running around Catterick tomorrow where did it all go wrong :pac:

Who's that ?

UrbanSea

jimjamcos wrote: »

Who's that ?

Rainbow Peak won in Milan

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Who's that ?

Rainbow Peak of John Fergusons in the first race,won an italian grp1 actually beat cavalryman in it,from milan to Catterick

UrbanSea

Anyone fancy Si Cetait Vrai in the beginners tomorrow, 4/1 his second to Morning Assembly is heads above anything else in the race. Ran disappointing since though

Goldcupfav

UrbanSea wrote: »

Anyone fancy Si Cetait Vrai in the beginners tomorrow, 4/1 his second to Morning Assembly is heads above anything else in the race. Ran disappointing since though

Think 4/1 is a fair price on his 2nd to Morning Assembly. I'd be worried that Arthur Moore has laid Talbot Road out for this race after winning the maiden hurdle on this card last year. Landed some nice bets that day too. He seems to always get a winner at Leopardstown at Christmas. Anyone else having trouble on the ATR website trying to go through horses form. Heading to Leopardstown tomorrow and trying to go through the form but the website aint working properly for me..

UrbanSea

Bulling I missed the big prices on Palace Moon have had him down as one for next time out, had a good bet at 15/2 nevertheless.

UrbanSea

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Think 4/1 is a fair price on his 2nd to Morning Assembly. I'd be worried that Arthur Moore has laid Talbot Road out for this race after winning the maiden hurdle on this card last year. Landed some nice bets that day too. He seems to always get a winner at Leopardstown at Christmas. Anyone else having trouble on the ATR website trying to go through horses form. Heading to Leopardstown tomorrow and trying to go through the form but the website aint working properly for me..

Money for that horse already. Are you using it for video form or just for the cards?

Goldcupfav

UrbanSea wrote: »

Money for that horse already. Are you using it for video form or just for the cards?

Video.

ste2010

Rossoms favourite Carmela Maria is running in catterick again in the last race tomorrow

JR23

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Think 4/1 is a fair price on his 2nd to Morning Assembly. I'd be worried that Arthur Moore has laid Talbot Road out for this race after winning the maiden hurdle on this card last year. Landed some nice bets that day too. He seems to always get a winner at Leopardstown at Christmas. Anyone else having trouble on the ATR website trying to go through horses form. Heading to Leopardstown tomorrow and trying to go through the form but the website aint working properly for me..

Sorry for asking But does "laid out" means the trainer had specifically targeted this race?

UrbanSea

Hopefully can make some dosh tomorrow. Think Palace Moon has a big chance.


Red Rocco 2.35 Chepstow 28/1


Typically wide open and competitive renewal of the Welsh National and it’s going to be a proper war of attrition on heavy ground tomorrow and you’ll need a proper dour stayer to stand a chance here and I think there are plenty that don’t fulfil that criteria, hopefully he isn’t one. A likeable horse, he has only finished out of the first three 5 times in 16 starts, and only once over fences. He was runner up three times in a row over hurdles the season before last before breaking his maiden in a heavy ground 2 ½ mile maiden up at Ayr doing it the hard way from the front with the pair a distance clear from a horse who is rated 130.


Proved even better as a chaser, chasing home the smart Highland Lodge over 3 miles at Towcester (rated 143) before making all in a 3 mile heavy ground handicap at Newcastle last December off a mark of 127 from a subsequent winner (third won twice since, fourth won twice since including the Kim Muir at the Festival, fifth won a 60K class 2 handicap chase since). Made it two wins in a row next time out in a novice at Kelso, staying on strongly and once again doing it from the front, giving a stone to the runner up who won a handicap off 110 since. Ran his first and only bad race over fences next time out at Fontwell, finishing a remote fourth. Changed trainers subsequently and ran a very promising race last time out at Haydock, keeping on well over this trip at Haydock, finishing ahead of Ace High in third who he re-opposes tomorrow (first three clear).


He’d look a cracking each way bet tomorrow only that he runs from seven pounds out of the handicap. That said, he could still have a few pounds in hand if coming on from his comeback run,he is a proven stayer over this trip and this ground, and he carries a feather weight ten stone. This is wide open but at these odds he could give a good run for his money.

Lyreen Legend 20/1 2.55 Leopardstown


The Grade 1 Lexus is the highlight of the day at Leopardstown tomorrow and this is another strong renewal, with reigning Gold Cup champion Bob’s Worth at the top of the market, followed in second by the runner up that day Sir Des Champs. This race strikes me as one that could throw up a bit of a surprise and the 20/1 on offer about Lyreen Legend looks a few points too big and looks a good each way price.


Another consistent horse, he had some smart form over hurdles, winning three times, including when winning a Thurles Grade 2 over 2 ½ miles back in March 2012 on heavy ground, and chased home some smart horses when runner up to Monksland and Boston Bob, and finished his hurdling career on a high when a 2 ½ lengths third to Dedigout in the Gr.1 at Punchestown.


Proved to be an even better chaser than hurdler, he won first time out at Galway last year over 2 ¾ miles on heavy ground in a race that has worked out well, the runner up Ipsos du Berlais was third, beaten under 2 lengths in the Paddy Power today off a mark of 133, and the third Carlingford Lough was runner up to the high class Don Cossack last time out and is rated in the 150s. He lost nothing in defeat next time out when a good second to Back in Focus at Punchestown, a distance clear of a gelding who won a Grade 2. He was in the process of running a big race next time out over this course and distance, only for falling three out, prior to finishing a close up fourth next time out over a trip too short around here behind Boston Bob in the Grade 1 P.J Moriarty Chase.


He ran his best race of his career when a close runner up to Lord Windermere in the RSA at Cheltenham (finished ahead of Unioniste), before looking like it was a case of one run too many when third to Mount Benbulben at Punchestown. This is a warm race and he needs to improve, but he is very consistent and he has won fresh on his last two seasons. Could go well.

Palace Moon 2.10 Lingfield 8/1


Previously a really smart horse who would pick up this lot and carry them on his shoulders back on his best form but he has been in a steep decline this year and the handicapper has reacted accordingly, and I think he has a big chance tomorrow. A Salisbury maiden winner at 2, he has won five other times, including a Doncaster handicap off a mark of 88 on his handicap debut, making a mockery of that mark when hacking up by 5 lengths, and took his form to a new level that year when beating Swiss Diva to land a Newmarket Listed race.


He went a long time without winning subsequently, primarily contesting the top handicaps and graded since, he was third in a top Ascot handicap off a mark of 105 in summer 2010, he finally got his head back in front in January 2012 over seven furlongs at Kempton, and followed up over this course and distance in a handicap off a mark of 98, winning comfortably. That season proved to be a productive one, gaining his last victory in Newmarket, springing a bit of a surprise at 25/1 when just getting there off a mark of 100.



More hit than miss subsequently, but his mark has plummeted as a result, and he did run quite well when beaten two and a half lengths into 5th at Newmarket in August off a mark of 90, and really caught the eye last time out around Kempton off a mark of 80, breaking slowly and was hampered before finishing well to be beaten under three lengths.


The handicapper looks to have been very generous to drop him two pounds for that, and he is well drawn tomorrow with Jim Crowley being an eye catching booking (has won twice on the gelding in three runs). A bit annoyed that I missed the bigger prices on him (has been backed from 14/1) but this could be a seriously well handicapped horse and represents a good bet.

3ndahalfof6

SRFC wrote: »

Rainbow Peak of John Fergusons in the first race,won an italian grp1 actually beat cavalryman in it,from milan to Catterick

What sort of price do you think this animal will go off @? I smell a winner but I can only see SP. So I am thinking wait till tomorrow (but I am working so I will miss it),

will it open up @ a decent price and implode, or will it hold steady?

BorneTobyWilde

Merry King 2.35 8-1
Tis the season.

SRFC

Was talking to the owner of Talbot road yesterday said it needed the run the last day so he fancys him but he wants 3mile,Andrew Lynch like that grey monk I said he looked bad in Wexford but he disagreed the mulllins 4yr old gets a handy allowance.

SRFC

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

What sort of price do you think this animal will go off @? I smell a winner but I can only see SP. So I am thinking wait till tomorrow (but I am working so I will miss it),

will it open up @ a decent price and implode, or will it hold steady?

He be about 7/4 in the morning,the market usually tells the story with fergusons could go off odds on and bolt up or drift and be tailed off,think he wants good ground presume it will be soft in catterick.

UrbanSea

Won his gr.1 on soft SRFC, looks like a proper gamble on that Palace Moon now best priced 13/2 could go off fav at this rate

SRFC

UrbanSea wrote: »

Won his gr.1 on soft SRFC, looks like a proper gamble on that Palace Moon now best priced 13/2 could go off fav at this rate

Yeah I see that,his 2nd to rio de la plate on good ground was decent form,Im not a big fan of backing these ''flat rejects'' as davy russel calls them :pac: its a bit guessy for my liking you know they either hack up or tail off,always against them when they face good NH bred horses in winter ground in tough tracks.


The challow is decent but surely the ballyalton oscar rock and blakemount newcastle form is good enough to see Oscar win,dont fancy captain cutter,lavelle horse and creepy are closely matched and longsdons hasnt beaten much yet,cant have Kaki look nice but not up to these.

Clonsuttonlad

Rainbow Peak will like the ground while his main opposition in the bettings sire prefers good.

Good spot on Lyreen Legend Urban he is good value! 20-1 . Will have a bit

Anyone backing Bobs Worth, Sir DES Champs, and especially RUBI BALL or First Lieutenant !! really needs their head examined. Palace Moon 5-1 now!

nevis7

I am working at leopardstown and hope to relieve some of ye of your money. solwhit is one favourite I am slow to oppose, if I can get some each way out of the others then I will be happy having him as a minor loser.

apart from leopardstown,my main lay will be Oscars rock and I will take a grand out of him in the morning when the market matures and non runners are sorted.

Oscars rock and that Henderson horse west wizard are the two most over rated novice hurdlers around. neither have a scrap of graded form yet you hear pundits hyping them.

Oscars rock is a good horse, nothing special. he would not have bothered the judge if he ran in the Cheltenham bumper. he finished less than 4 lengths ahead of blakemount last time. if that horse was in this race he would be a 33/1 shot. the horses with real form, graded form are creepy and timeremembered. as a layer, real form counts not hype. Oscars rock will be lucky to finish in the first four, in fact if he does, it will be a career best run over hurdles.

my Christmas present, santa messaged that Charlie swan will be in the winners enclosure following the running of the limerick bumper.

SRFC

nevis7 wrote: »

I am working at leopardstown and hope to relieve some of ye of your money. solwhit is one favourite I am slow to oppose, if I can get some each way out of the others then I will be happy having him as a minor loser.

apart from leopardstown,my main lay will be Oscars rock and I will take a grand out of him in the morning when the market matures and non runners are sorted.

Oscars rock and that Henderson horse west wizard are the two most over rated novice hurdlers around. neither have a scrap of graded form yet you hear pundits hyping them.

Oscars rock is a good horse, nothing special. he would not have bothered the judge if he ran in the Cheltenham bumper. he finished less than 4 lengths ahead of blakemount last time. if that horse was in this race he would be a 33/1 shot. the horses with real form, graded form are creepy and timeremembered. as a layer, real form counts not hype. Oscars rock will be lucky to finish in the first four, in fact if he does, it will be a career best run over hurdles.

my Christmas present, santa messaged that Charlie swan will be in the winners enclosure following the running of the limerick bumper.

I will enjoy taking your money on oscar rock thanks in advance



Blakemount has since bolted up in newcastle by half the track,ballyalton came out and won in cheltenham beating Garde le Victoire of philip Hobb's in a strong race with doctor harper of pipes well beaten and hendersons albert bartlett horse in 3rd,Ballyalton who beat this Oscar rock has won 5 out of his 6 starts on the track clearly very smart


Oscar rock is the winner of a listed bumper aswell btw hammering vago collanges and caledonia who went on to finish 2nd and 3rd in a grade 2 bumper in Aintree


Useless form alright pure hype :rolleyes:

SRFC

I see Prescott has a half brother to THE FUGUE by Dansili in the first at LINGFIELD,entered in some pattern race inc the derby,it will either be a group horse in time or else racking up a four timer around Yarmouth in a few months :pac: Gosdens invincible spirt filly is nicely bred both should be big enough prices might be worth a bet.

hawkhead

Dubai Hills 1-10 Lingfield. Going to take a chance that he takes to the track as its his first visit to Lingfield but his record around other all weather tracks is pretty impressive. 5/1 seems fair enough to me.

Arch Villain 1-40 Lingfield 7/2 Crowley should know what he has to beat here as he rode the likely fav Clerks Choice to Victory last week.

Grey Monk 2-20 Leopardstown 7/1 looks to be a more than fair price in a race that contains a lot of horses with a point to prove. The fact that Cooper is on board is a big plus too.

Mail De Bievre 3-10 Chepstow 7/1 Highly tried last season since coming over from France. If the breathing op he has had since works he should be able to put in a big performance off his current mark

jimjamcos

Newbury

1.45: I like Oscar Rock too. No shame in getting beaten bu best novice in England lto. Gets his ground tomorrow and 2/2 at the track.

Chepstow

1.30: Lamps ew

2.00 Violet Dancer

2.35: Wyck Hill ew

nobody told me

Two bets for me tomorrow mala beach and lyreen legend.

Just watched Morning Line.

Rebecca Curtis is only gorgeous.

Ive gone for 3 today in a ew patent

Goonyella

Rubi Ball

Captain Cutter

redzerdrog

I quite like the looks of a lot of Nicholls runners today, could be a good day for him and he is in good form recently

prettyboy81

Solwhit NR reported lame this morning.

Nulty

Solwhit non runner?? Bollox to that, really wanted to see him today

UrbanSea

What a terrible grade 1 when zaidpour is your evens fav

ste2010

Mala beach is the one
Solar impulse in Chepstow is one runner nicholls supposedly thinks alot of

kiers47

As I pointed out yesterday I'm firmly in the Oscar Rock camp as well and backed him for the Albert Bartlett last night. I think he would have beat Ballyalton the last day to with a better ride. I'm happy to have him on my side for today as well at 5/2 I think it's a fair price.
One other I have backed is Baradari of Venetia Williams I really fancied him for a better race than this yesterday and he was only a point bigger I think he will take all the beating after a nice introductory race lto over c&d.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Second pick is at Leopardstown, just waiting to see the lay of the land with prices before I throw out my write up.

Leopardstown 1:20 - Face Value (18/1)

The only entry of the day from Adrian McGuinness and the only ride today of David Splaine who takes the mount yet again on this horse. Have to say, this looks well chucked in and is a big max bet for me today. Seems clear to me that this race was the target for the connections all along. It has run previously at Leopardstown in two races that were far too hot for it. Horse certainly wasn't disgraced on either occasion finishing 7th of 16 and 8th of 16 over trips that were probably that bit too long for it. Those races were not the target though, if you look at the ratings, you'll see the two runs were needed to bring the horse from a mark of 125 to 123 (the maximum rating for entrants today) - so you can see what I mean about this race being the target. If you look closely, you'll also see that today sees it drop down to a straight 2 mile trip (which should suit better) and also sees it run over pretty lousy ground (which should also suit given the horse has seen a lot of success over this ground). Jockey has won previously with this horse and will be well familiar with it, so that should be no concern. Opposition has potential for sure, but there' nothing clearly better than Face Value here. Leah Claire has some nice flat credentials but there are definite concerns with it and the ground here. Pires looks to have shown that bit more ability than Leah Claire and while it should handle the ground better than Leah Claire, it won't like it as much as Face Value. One horse who will like the ground for sure is market leader Inis Meain, the question marks with that one are jumping which it hasn't been convincing from what I have seen. For me, looking at that opposition, Face Value looks as good as that lot, so for me the current price of 18/1 makes no sense.

Have paired this pick up with Vintage Star for a tenner double that would see me win €2560. I can dream, right?

UrbanSea

Tidal Bay has absolutely no chance he has been given the kiss of death-Alex Hammond's tip of the day

BumperD

Ashford Wood ,Chepstow ,bumper ,form looks solid enough. I'll take on the fav with him.

BumperD

kiers47 wrote: »

As I pointed out yesterday I'm firmly in the Oscar Rock camp as well and backed him for the Albert Bartlett last night. I think he would have beat Ballyalton the last day to with a better ride. I'm happy to have him on my side for today as well at 5/2 I think it's a fair price.
One other I have backed is Baradari of Venetia Williams I really fancied him for a better race than this yesterday and he was only a point bigger I think he will take all the beating after a nice introductory race lto over c&d.

I was disappointed with his last run Kiers, thought he was beaten fair & square. I have followed him since last year after he sluiced up in a bumper. I personally have lost faith in him. That Ballyalton & Hobbs horse that ran at Chelt the last day are ahead of him imo. He really needs to beat this lot today but I'm just watching the race. Best of luck with him today

NaiveMelodies

Highland Lodge E/W

Empire of Dirt E/W

Can't figure out the Lexus so having a tiny bet on Rubi Ball, just in case he's coming in under the radar in a big way..

SRFC

Fully expect Emmet Mullins to ruin a few horses today,how he has a licence is a mystery wouldnt get a ride only for his surname is Mullins,azorian is a great bet without faugheen at even money,any one fancy Cesar Milan in the first at Chepstow?? fav for a grade 2 but pulled up bleeding must think a bit of him big price back in a maiden.

UrbanSea

Backe those three horses I mentioned, anyone else think Restless Harry could be worth a last chance today in an open race, he has always ran well at Newbury and his last win was this time last year over three miles here

Colonel Sanders

Anyone prepared to give Bobs Worth another chance at 7/2

In the Gold Cup he got behind & made a few mistakes but then powered up the hill. With the way the last 2 fences are at Leopardstown he'll have plenty of time to build up momentum heading for the last if the same happens again. As happens many times I was hoping he'd be shorter this morning so I wouldn't be tempted to back him.

Between him & Sir Des for me, I think Unioniste has a good bit to find with the other 2 market leaders (obviously forgiving Bobs Worth his Haydock run) although he is only 5 & will like the ground.

UrbanSea

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Anyone prepared to give Bobs Worth another chance at 7/2

In the Gold Cup he got behind & made a few mistakes but then powered up the hill. With the way the last 2 fences are at Leopardstown he'll have plenty of time to build up momentum heading for the last if the same happens again. As happens many times I was hoping he'd be shorter this morning so I wouldn't be tempted to back him.

Between him & Sir Des for me, I think Unioniste has a good bit to find with the other 2 market leaders (obviously forgiving Bobs Worth his Haydock run) although he is only 5 & will like the ground.

Would you not be worried about just how appallingly he ran last time out? Plenty of Henderson's not running as they should

andyman

UrbanSea wrote: »

Would you not be worried about just how appallingly he ran last time out? Plenty of Henderson's not running as they should

This for me. Henderson's yard is in appalling form at the moment. Even Long Run managed to fall on Thursday, and he never falls.

Francie Barrett

Going at Leopardstown is now soft to heavy, should suit my pick.

Shane732

andyman wrote: »

This for me. Henderson's yard is in appalling form at the moment. Even Long Run managed to fall on Thursday, and he never falls.

He did have SWC though - the horse was just trying to get him off his back.

NaiveMelodies

SRFC wrote: »

Fully expect Emmet Mullins to ruin a few horses today,how he has a licence is a mystery wouldnt get a ride only for his surname is Mullins,azorian is a great bet without faugheen at even money,any one fancy Cesar Milan in the first at Chepstow?? fav for a grade 2 but pulled up bleeding must think a bit of him big price back in a maiden.

I think 'The Job Is Right' is a great bet w/o Faugheen. Form line with Apache Stronghold has him closer to Azorian than the prices suggests.
Will stay every yard and loves the ground. Beat Lots of Memories well last time out and is still bigger.

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Would you not be worried about just how appallingly he ran last time out? Plenty of Henderson's not running as they should

Yes! But just going through the race I'm simply thinking 7/2 is worth risking

Could simply be a case that The Gold Cup took a big toll as he was heavily backed at Haydock

ste2010

Fancy sir des champs today. He would have won this last year had his jumping been cleaner. I don't think bobs worth will like the ground. So think shield will run well today in the first

ste2010

The carmela Maria gamble is on again today. Into 4's now