2013/14 Heineken Cup permutations after Round 4

thomond2006

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes number of tries scored, the rules below indicate that tries scored is the first differential used to seperate teams from different pools that have the same points.

The top 2 runners up qualify for the Heineken Cup knockout stage, the 3rd-5th best runners up move into the Amlin Challenge Cup knockout stage.

2.2 The six pool winners and two best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:

(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the two clubs with the highest number of match points out of the six clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 6 and the best-placed runners-up 7 and 8 by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two or more clubs in the same pool are equal on match points, their ranking will be determined by the matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:

(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or

(ii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches; or

(iii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches.

(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, ranking will be determined as follows:

(i) the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or

(ii) if equal, the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or

(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended for incidents in the pool stage; or

(iv) if equal, by drawing lots.

http://www.ercrugby.com/heinekencup/rules/index.php

Pool 1

Leinster 13 (8)
N Saints 9 (7)
Castres 8 (2)
Ospreys 5 (1)

Ospreys vs N Saints
Castres vs Leinster

N Saints vs Castres
Leinster vs Ospreys

Saints' victory in Dublin has blown this pool wide open, with only Ospreys only out of the running. As Leinster earned more points in their head-to-head with Northampton, Leinster will be seeded higher if both sides are tied on pool points. Castres must beat Leinster in Round 5 to stay in contention. Leinster's low try count of 8 tries puts them at a disadvantage for qualification seeding.

Prediction: Leinster to qualify in a tight finish! They will grind out a losing bonus point in Castres and defeat the Ospreys in Round 6.

Pool 2

Toulon 15 (11)
Cardiff 13 (7)
Exeter 7 (9)
Glasgow 6 (9)

Exeter Chiefs vs Glasgow Warriors
Toulon vs Cardiff Blues

Glasgow Warriors vs Toulon
Cardiff Blues vs Exeter

Toulon can wrap up top spot in Pool 2 if they defeat Cardiff in Round 5 and deny Cardiff a losing bonus point. Exeter and Glasgow are too far behind in points to have a hope of catching the two leaders. If Toulon can win both remaining matches then they should earn a home quarter final.

Prediction: Toulon to qualify.

Pool 3

Toulouse 15 (15)
Saracens 15 (7)
Connacht 9 (5)
Zebre 0 (2)

Connacht vs Zebre
Toulouse vs Saracens

Saracens vs Connacht
Zebre vs Toulouse

This pool is all about Saracens vs Toulouse in Round 5, as both sides will expect to win their respective Round 6 fixtures. Toulouse are at home in Round 5 so they will be favourites and should earn all five points against a hapless Zebre side to claim a top seeding and a home quarter final.

Prediction: Toulouse to beat Saracens in Round 5 and top the pool, with Saracens also qualifying as a runner up.

Pool 4

Clermont 15 (11)
Harlequins 11 (8)
Scarlets 6 (7)
Racing Metro 6 (2)

Racing vs Scarlets
Harlequins vs Clermont

Clermont vs Racing
Scarlets vs Harlequins

Harlequins face a must win home match against Clermont in Round 5, with Scarlets and Racing both out of contention. Clermont will be fancied to win in London and of course they are unbeatable at home.

Prediction: Clermont to qualify.

Pool 5

Ulster 18 (13)
Leicester 15 (11)
Montpellier 6 (9)
B Treviso 0 (1)

B Treviso vs Leicester
Ulster vs Montpellier

Leicester vs Ulster
Montpellier vs Treviso

Both Leicester and Ulster will fancy getting full points in their Round 5 matches, meaning their Round 6 clash may not prevent both sides going through. Ulster on 23 points could be enough for qualification, but Leicester will need to defeat Ulster at Welford Road in order to advance.

Prediction: Ulster have been flying this season and I fancy them to win at Welford Road which would be a statement of intent. Ulster to qualify with a home quarter final and Leicester to get 6 points from the two rounds putting them on 21 points, enough to qualify as a runner up.

Pool 6

Munster 14 (11)
Gloucester 9 (7)
Edinburgh 8 (7)
Perpignan 7 (7)

Edinburgh's shock win over Gloucester opens the door for Munster to top the pool with ease. A win for Munster at Kingsholm in Round 5 will assure top spot and then Munster will look for maximum points and a measure of revenge over Edinburgh in Round 6.

Prediction: Munster to qualify.

SEEDING PREDICTION:

1. Ulster (27 points)
2. Toulouse (24 points) - Seeded higher via try count.
3. Toulon (24 points)
4. Munster (23 points) - Seeded higher via try count.
5. Clermont (23 points)
6. Leinster (18 points)

---

7. Leicester (21 points)
8. Saracens (20 points)

Quarter-Finals in this case:

1 vs 8: Ulster vs Saracens
2 vs 7: Toulouse vs Leicester
3 vs 6: Toulon vs Leinster
4 vs 5: Munster vs Clermont

Obviously a lot of assumptions and predictions went into the above! Please point out any mistakes!

awec

I'd be shocked if we came out as top seed.

Though I would love a crack at Saracens at Ravenhill.

durkadurka

There's been a lot of strange results so far so I wouldn't rule anything out.

Most of the results in Leinster's group have been surprising tbh.

Bellview

Do you know when the round 5 dates and times for fixtures will get announced?

durkadurka

Bellview wrote: »

Do you know when the round 5 dates and times for fixtures will get announced?

Wednesday I think.

Edit: defo Wednesday

Kanrith

Don't like the look of a Toulon quarter final , I always support every Irish team so I still won't be routing for Munster or Ulster to lose any matches but I would hope the draw is better than that, I reckon we would be able to beat anyone except Clermont and Toulon away providing we play better than last weekend ofc. :P

who_me

Kinda scary if the 4th / 5th seeding were to be decided on tries like that. Not that Clermont are easy to beat anywhere, but to think you could finish up on 23 points (a very healthy points total) and still end up travelling to SMM. Yikes.

former legend

Harlequins

Love this time of year when all the head melting permutations start.

In response to the OP, i'd back Clermont to get a tbp in round six if they need one so I don't think they'll finish level with Munster. But then I wouldn't regard them beating Quins as a done deal either.

who_me

p.s. Those potential quarter finalists have 13 wins between them. Would be some epic weekend of rugby if it turned out like that. Almost impossible to pick a "highlight".

Quint2010

Northampton Saints

Depends on injuries but I would fancy Leinster to bounce back and beat Castres and The Opreys. Castres only 8 points and their away form is so bad I reckon they will throw the towel in after this weekends results.

Phoeey

WorldRugby99

still plenty of rugby to play so for me a bit pointless to start trying to think who may be playing who.who knows who will/wont get bonus points etc

On the one hand you could say a line up of the big teams makes for cracking QF/SF-on the other you could argue the tournament is getting somewhat predictable with all the teams you would have predicted before a ball was kicked,making it through.Personally I want and hope to see a glasgow,a harlequins or a scarlets win the tournament-not just the big teams,with the big budgets and big name players-but unfortunately its looking less and less likely that will happen.

Fireball07

From a Munster pov, we have to try and get 9 or 10 points from our remaining games.


I wouldn't fear anyone in Thomond Park, even Clermont and Toulon. But I would not like to travel to SMM...

touts

I think Munster will lose in Kingsholm but not concede 4 tries meaning a 4 try win against Edinburgh in Thomond will still see them through but away for the qtr finals. Progress beyond the Qtrs will depend on who they get and more imortantly the injuries after the 6 nations.

I actually think Leinster are in real trouble. They have been brittle at times this season as they adjust to life under a new coach and I think Castres will turn them over in France. That'll leave them to play an Ospreys team who dont fear any Irish team and would love nothing more than to take Leinster out with them. That group could well come down to losing bonus points.

Snickers Man

Working through the permutations, I think a very likely Quarter Final line up is (home team first):
Toulouse v Saracens
Leicester v Ulster
Toulon v Clermont Auvergne
Munster v Leinster

that last one, if it comes off, should keep the Mods busy

awec

Snickers Man wrote: »

Working through the permutations, I think a very likely Quarter Final line up is (home team first):
Toulouse v Saracens
Leicester v Ulster
Toulon v Clermont Auvergne
Munster v Leinster

that last one, if it comes off, should keep the Mods busy

We have a deal with the ERC, Munster and Leinster are to be kept apart for the sake of our health.

Also, I can't be bothered playing Leicester again. How rubbish would that be?

Snickers Man

awec wrote: »

We have a deal with the ERC, Munster and Leinster are to be kept apart for the sake of our health.

Also, I can't be bothered playing Leicester again. How rubbish would that be?

You'll have to beat them in Welford Road then.

Let's face it: they're going to pick up a bonus point in Treviso, and let's assume Ulster will beat Montpelier at Ravenhill. That will put Ulster on 22 points and Leicester on 20 going into the last game. OK, a draw is always a possibility but a decisive result is a more likely outcome. If Leicester win that one, even if Ulster don't pick up a bonus point, 22 points will still almost certainly be enough to qualify as a top 2 runner up.

I figure that a few teams are going to finish up on 24 points, so it will come down to tries scored.

Leicester v Ulster is still a very likely QF at this stage though.

Fireball07

Looking at the poll, I realised I have no idea who's going to win it this year. Last year I thought Clermont would, particularly after beating Leinster twice. Toulon were always a good second bet, but I'm not sure there's the same standout teams this year.

It might just come down to who get home semi-finals.

Toulon are probably favourites but lost to Cardiff! They can look vulnerable at times. Similarly Clermont, last year's loss in the final must have been a serious blow to their confidence too. And Toulouse, haven't been the same force in recent years- and lost to Connacht in France... none of the big teams will fear them after that.

Sarries/Leicester... two good sides, I'd give Sarries the better chance, simply because they have a big pack and tend to be very clinical. Home draws might get them to the final... but I don't know if they have the necessary flair.


As for the Irish teams, Munster are probably not good enough at the moment, Leinster at full-strength are a match for anyone, but their form this year hasn't been quite as good as previous years. Ulster probably look the slickest of the Irish outfits, only unbeaten team left, yet have a dodgy fixture against Leicester, and if they only come 2nd, don't know would they win in France......


Which basically means anyone could win it.

awec

Snickers Man wrote: »

Leicester v Ulster is still a very likely QF at this stage though.

To be honest, we are still a long way off being able to say that any fixture combination is likely.

The way bonus points and the seeding works in the HEC makes predictions nearly impossible.

who_me

Snickers Man wrote: »

You'll have to beat them in Welford Road then.

Let's face it: they're going to pick up a bonus point in Treviso, and let's assume Ulster will beat Montpelier at Ravenhill. That will put Ulster on 22 points and Leicester on 20 going into the last game. OK, a draw is always a possibility but a decisive result is a more likely outcome. If Leicester win that one, even if Ulster don't pick up a bonus point, 22 points will still almost certainly be enough to qualify as a top 2 runner up.

I figure that a few teams are going to finish up on 24 points, so it will come down to tries scored.

Leicester v Ulster is still a very likely QF at this stage though.

If Ulster could get a try BP against a disinterested Montpellier, that would make things a lot more interesting. That would mean a losing BP might be enough for Ulster, as long as they deny Tigers a try BP. Not that you really want to be going anywhere hoping for a losing BP..

ArmaniJeanss

Has anyone ever suggested that 1v8 and 2v7 be swapped if necessary to avoid repeating ties from the groups?

dtpc191991

Leicester

touts wrote: »

I think Munster will lose in Kingsholm but not concede 4 tries meaning a 4 try win against Edinburgh in Thomond will still see them through but away for the qtr finals. Progress beyond the Qtrs will depend on who they get and more imortantly the injuries after the 6 nations.

I actually think Leinster are in real trouble. They have been brittle at times this season as they adjust to life under a new coach and I think Castres will turn them over in France. That'll leave them to play an Ospreys team who dont fear any Irish team and would love nothing more than to take Leinster out with them. That group could well come down to losing bonus points.

An Ospreys team that have been the one real thorn in Leinster's side while they were at their best under Schmidt.

thomond2006

Cardiff Blues

If Lobbe comes back from injury on last season's form then Toulon will take some beating.

errlloyd

Northampton Saints

I'm getting a similar frustration to last year as a leinster fan, just an annoyance that we're going to end up competing for points with teams playing dead rubber fixtures against total push overs. It feels like it's been a while since we had a handy group with a few teams that would just capitulate and let us score a **** load of tries. It's a bad state of affairs when Ospreys are the weakest team.

Still it's our fault, castre would be dead now if we didn't slip up so badly in the aviva.

CatFromHue

Thing is, before the back to back games if we were offered 5 points we'd have taken them.

It's not all bad.

errlloyd

Northampton Saints

CatFromHue wrote: »

Thing is, before the back to back games if we were offered 5 points we'd have taken them.

It's not all bad.

Considering the group we're in its good progress. I just feel we scarcely get anything soft in the pools.

.ak

I always thought we'd get a LBP in franklin gardens, and probably just get the 4 normal points at home. So 5 points seems about right, although it happened bizarrely.

I thought it would be an away q4 for us and nothing's changed that.

My hope us we hit some super form like we did last year going into the business end of the season, and once you're in the knock ours anything can happen.

Think we just need to concentrate on winning the last two games, stuff the bonus points.

jamiedav2011

Do people really think we'll go down to Castres away considering they're out of the tournament? Tough place to go, but I don't.

former legend

Harlequins

CatFromHue wrote: »

Thing is, before the back to back games if we were offered 5 points we'd have taken them.

It's not all bad.

The other good thing is that we came out on top of the head-to-head meaning Northampton finishing level on match points is no use to them so they'll have to really pull something out of the bag to get ahead of us.

Barring any more major surprises, our fate should be in our own hands in round six.

[Jackass]

Northampton Saints

I wouldn't share the optomism with regard to Toulon. They haven't been hitting top form, yet anyway. I don't think Clermont are the team they were and don't think they'll be contenders, missed their chance unfortunately imo.

Toulouse and Munster would be my dark horses, but can't see past Ulster this year if I'm being honest. I think Leinster might have blown a home quarter now and away to someone like Toulon would be a tall order, I'm not sure we're that team any more either.

Ulster are probably the best team this year, but as the Pro12 showed last season, the best team doesn't always lift the trophy.

awec

Jaysus, people are very confident about us.

I'm not! :pac:

Ultimately the luck of the draw will play a big part. If we can avoid away games against the Toulons and Clermonts we could do it.

.ak

awec wrote: »

Jaysus, people are very confident about us.

I'm not! :pac:

Ultimately the luck of the draw will play a big part. If we can avoid away games against the Toulons and Clermonts we could do it.

Having the Italians in your group helped you tremendously. Hopefully you can do a number on the other two tough nuggets in your group. Home quarter hinges on what you can get from Welford road though really. Setting up to be another massive Ulster v Leicester game.

former legend

Harlequins

awec wrote: »

Jaysus, people are very confident about us.

I'm not! :pac:

Ultimately the luck of the draw will play a big part. If we can avoid away games against the Toulons and Clermonts we could do it.

With no disrespect to Ulster, I'm not particularly confident either.

It's not outside the bounds of possibility that Treviso will deny Tigers a try BP in Italy but this Leicester team are experts in grinding out the results they need; a penalty in the dying minutes at Ravenhill to rescue a BP, a try with the last play of the game to get the 5 points against Treviso in round 2 and then a 78th minute try for the win yesterday. They just don't look like they'll slip up.

Unfortunately, that also means they'll be unlikely to slip up at home in round six and Ulster will be on the road for the QFs.

who_me

If Montpellier "don't show up" (tm) in Round 5, Ulster could get a try BP which helps them enormously. Going to Welford Rd. 3 points ahead gives them a bit more leeway.

awec

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Do people really think we'll go down to Castres away considering they're out of the tournament? Tough place to go, but I don't.

If Castres beat you they're only 1 point behind you.

Albeit with an away game to Northampton.

iroced

who_me wrote: »

If Montpellier "don't show up" (tm) in Round 5, Ulster could get a try BP which helps them enormously. Going to Welford Rd. 3
points ahead gives them a bit more leeway.

Since we're out of Europe and considering our Top 14 fixtures, we'll probably take the last 2 group phase games as "competition-level training" games.
I could see us starting with a second string team in Ravenhill to give the last 20-30 min to our first-string players and vice versa home to Treviso so that we start back Top 14 with the optimised combination of "fresh enough and the least competition-less possible".

LuckyLloyd

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Do people really think we'll go down to Castres away considering they're out of the tournament? Tough place to go, but I don't.

They're out of the tournament? If they beat you they're right in there with a shot.

the.red.baron

former legend wrote: »

With no disrespect to Ulster, I'm not particularly confident either.

It's not outside the bounds of possibility that Treviso will deny Tigers a try BP in Italy but this Leicester team are experts in grinding out the results they need; a penalty in the dying minutes at Ravenhill to rescue a BP, a try with the last play of the game to get the 5 points against Treviso in round 2 and then a 78th minute try for the win yesterday. They just don't look like they'll slip up.

Unfortunately, that also means they'll be unlikely to slip up at home in round six and Ulster will be on the road for the QFs.

Thats a very optimistic way of looking at it. I doubt they'd be crowing that they only managed to sneak a BP against Treviso at home when Ulster had it wrapped up with 10-15 mins left to go or only just beat a french side pretty much out of the competition.

I'd look at it the opposite way, they aren't playing well and are just scraping by and are looking at a crunch tie with a team who are playing better than them and who beat them well enough at home.

I'd back Ulster to land a knockout blow.

Snickers Man

Snickers Man wrote: »

Working through the permutations, I think a very likely Quarter Final line up is (home team first):
Toulouse v Saracens
Leicester v Ulster
Toulon v Clermont Auvergne
Munster v Leinster

that last one, if it comes off, should keep the Mods busy

And now after round 5 I think the QF line up is most likely to be:

Toulouse v Saracens
Leicester v Ulster
Toulon v Leinster
Munster v Clermont Auvergne

A caveat involving two French teams, though: if Glasgow does everyone a favour and beats Toulon on a mucky afternoon in Scotland, AND Clermont beat Racing with a bonus point then the bottom two matches could still be Clermont v Toulon and
Munster v Leinster.

I know which one I want to see

mystic86

Snickers Man wrote: »

And now after round 5 I think the QF line up is most likely to be:

Toulouse v Saracens
Leicester v Ulster
Toulon v Leinster
Munster v Clermont Auvergne

A caveat involving two French teams, though: if Glasgow does everyone a favour and beats Toulon on a mucky afternoon in Scotland, AND Clermont beat Racing with a bonus point then the bottom two matches could still be Clermont v Toulon and
Munster v Leinster.

I know which one I want to see

How are Leinster not going to top their group?

vienne86

Cardiff Blues

mystic86 wrote: »

How are Leinster not going to top their group?

By losing to Ospreys next week, with no losing bonus point, and by Nothampton winning against Castres WITH a bonus point.

former legend

Harlequins

mystic86 wrote: »

How are Leinster not going to top their group?

They more than likely will but only a miraculous series of results will see them get a home QF.

Toulon is the most likely destination.

mystic86

former legend wrote: »

They more than likely will but only a miraculous series of results will see them get a home QF.

Toulon is the most likely destination.

I'd agree about Toulon away being likely....

Here is my best attempt at predicting the Quarter Finals:

Ulster v Saracens
Toulouse v Leicester
Toulon v Leinster
Clermont v Munster


Munster could get a home Quarter final against Clermont, but they'll be up against it, they will need Clermont to NOT get 4 tries against Racing Metro next week, Munster will HAVE to get a bonus point win at home to Edinburgh next week...

I mean it could well happen, it'll be interesting, it nearly always is with Munster!

Correct me if I'm wrong please....

Tomtom364

Gloucester

mystic86 wrote: »

I'd agree about Toulon away being likely....

Here is my best attempt at predicting the Quarter Finals:

Ulster v Saracens
Toulouse v Leicester
Toulon v Leinster
Clermont v Munster


Munster could get a home Quarter final against Clermont, but they'll be up against it, they will need Clermont to NOT get 4 tries against Racing Metro next week, Munster will HAVE to get a bonus point win at home to Edinburgh next week, and Munster will HAVE to score the same number of tries in their game (or more) against Edinburgh as Clermont do against Racing Metro... and if they only score the same number of tries next week as Clermont, as opposed to scoring more tries than them, they will need to ensure that the margin that Clermont beat Racing Metro by is not more than 6 points more than what Munster beat Edinburgh by...

I mean it could well happen, it'll be interesting, it nearly always is with Munster!

Correct me if I'm wrong please....

Erm... If clemont have to not get a BP and munster have to get a BP... By default Munster and clermont can't get the same number of tries so Thats an unnecessary requirement there

mystic86

Tomtom364 wrote: »

Erm... If clemont have to not get a BP and munster have to get a BP... By default Munster and clermont can't get the same number of tries so Thats an unnecessary requirement there

LOL!! my bad!!

Buer

awec wrote: »

Jaysus, people are very confident about us.

I'm not! :pac:

Ultimately the luck of the draw will play a big part. If we can avoid away games against the Toulons and Clermonts we could do it.

Indeed. Leicester/Ulster or Toulouse are the teams that people will want to face if they've to go on the road. Nobody wants Clermont or Toulon at home but the others are quite winnable for any of the likely qualifiers.

Personally, I'd be delighted to get Leicester in a one off, winner takes all clash.

menu14

Here is my guess for the Q-Finals with 1 round to go:
1. Ulster 26 - Think they have the ability to win in Welford Road
2. Toulon 25 - Have too much up front for Glasgow and win with BP. They know the importance of a home QF
3. Toulouse 24 (20 tries) - Will beat Zebra easily
4. Clermont 24 (18 tries) - Racing will play their 2nd team with big Top 14 match at home to Toulouse the week after. Easy win
5. Munster 23 - Should have enough to win with BP at home to Edinburgh but results don't go their way
6. Leinster 22 - Home BP win against an uninterested and poor Ospreys
7. Leicester 21 - Will get a losing bonus point in a close home loss to Ulster
8. Northampton 18 - Home BP win against an uninterested 2nd string Castres. After watching how limited Saracens were today I think if Connacht front up against them they can grab a win and a place in the Amlin QF.

Quarter Final Line Up:
Ulster v Northampton
Toulon v Leicester
Toulouse v Leinster
Clermont v Munster

vienne86

Cardiff Blues

menu14 wrote: »

Here is my guess for the Q-Finals with 1 round to go:
1. Ulster 26 - Think they have the ability to win in Welford Road
2. Toulon 25 - Have too much up front for Glasgow and win with BP. They know the importance of a home QF
3. Toulouse 24 (20 tries) - Will beat Zebra easily
4. Clermont 24 (18 tries) - Racing will play their 2nd team with big Top 14 match at home to Toulouse the week after. Easy win
5. Munster 23 - Should have enough to win with BP at home to Edinburgh but results don't go their way
6. Leinster 22 - Home BP win against an uninterested and poor Ospreys
7. Leicester 21 - Will get a losing bonus point in a close home loss to Ulster
8. Northampton 18 - Home BP win against an uninterested 2nd string Castres. After watching how limited Saracens were today I think if Connacht front up against them they can grab a win and a place in the Amlin QF.

Quarter Final Line Up:
Ulster v Northampton
Toulon v Leicester
Toulouse v Leinster
Clermont v Munster

From a Leinster POV, I would take a trip to Toulouse rather than trips to either Clermont or Toulon.

CatFromHue

menu14 wrote: »

Ulster v Northampton
Toulon v Leicester
Toulouse v Leinster
Clermont v Munster

Who's the odd team out here?

Clermont, they've never won it

.ak

menu14 wrote: »

Here is my guess for the Q-Finals with 1 round to go:
1. Ulster 26 - Think they have the ability to win in Welford Road
2. Toulon 25 - Have too much up front for Glasgow and win with BP. They know the importance of a home QF
3. Toulouse 24 (20 tries) - Will beat Zebra easily
4. Clermont 24 (18 tries) - Racing will play their 2nd team with big Top 14 match at home to Toulouse the week after. Easy win
5. Munster 23 - Should have enough to win with BP at home to Edinburgh but results don't go their way
6. Leinster 22 - Home BP win against an uninterested and poor Ospreys
7. Leicester 21 - Will get a losing bonus point in a close home loss to Ulster
8. Northampton 18 - Home BP win against an uninterested 2nd string Castres. After watching how limited Saracens were today I think if Connacht front up against them they can grab a win and a place in the Amlin QF.

Quarter Final Line Up:
Ulster v Northampton
Toulon v Leicester
Toulouse v Leinster
Clermont v Munster

Interesting. I'm hoping ospreys aren't going to be a banana skin for Leinster, but they are our kryptonite. But am I right in thinking even if we just win and end up on 21 your predictions will still be the same? Infact, even if we lose with a BP we'll go through against Toulouse.


If that is correct that is really a great 8 final teams. That is a list of the power houses in Europe. No Cardiff or Edinburgh slipping through because of easy pools, just the best top 8 teams in Europe. No free tickets to the semis.


As a Leinster fan I'd love to play Toulouse, it's been a while and I think there's something special about the match up between them. At the moment both teams playing very similar direct rugby also.

On current form though if that was the line up the only Irish province I'd bet on getting to the final is ulster, I think Toulouse and Clermont away will be too much, but come early April all provinces could be on form.

awec

Is the semi final a draw out of the hat, or is it predetermined like the winner of 1st v 8th against the winner of 2nd v 7th or whatever? I can't remember.