Leinster vs Northampton Saints; 14/12/14, 6pm - live on Sky Sports 2

former legend

Leinster Rugby15. Rob Kearney; 14. Dave Kearney, 13. Brian O'Driscoll, 12. Gordon D'Arcy, 11. Luke Fitzgerald; 10. Ian Madigan, 9. Eoin Reddan; 1. Jack McGrath, 2. Sean Cronin, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Devin Toner, 5. Mike McCarthy, 6. Rhys Ruddock, 7. Sean O'Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip (c)
16. Aaron Dundon, 17. Michael Bent, 18. Martin Moore, 19. Leo Cullen, 20. Shane Jennings, 21. John Cooney, 22. Jimmy Gopperth 23. Zane Kirchner

Northampton Saints15. Ken Pisi; 14. Jamie Elliott, 13. Dom Waldouck, 12. Luther Burrell, 11. George North; 10. Steve Myler, 9. Lee Dickson; 1. Alex Waller, 2. Dylan Hartley (c), 3. Salesi Ma'afu, 4. Courtney Lawes, 5. Christian Day, 6. Calum Clark, 7. Tom Wood, 8. Samu Manoa
16. Mikey Haywood, 17. Ethan Waller, 18. Tom Mercey, 19. Sam Dickinson, 20. Phil Dowson, 21. Kahn Fotuali'i, 22. Glenn Dickson 23. Tom Collins

Revenge may be a dish best served cold and wet, as the weather forecast predicts a rainy and windy evening for Northampton's shot at redemption after their humiliation in Franklin's Gardens last week.


Team Selections:
Matt O'Connor has the luxury of naming the same side that ran riot over the Saints, Sean O'Brien has recoved from the flattening he received from Samu Manoa and resumes in the openside position. Cian Healy's injury turned out to be worse than expected so Jack McGrath gets an unexpected chance to boost his own standing in the loosehead spot over the next few weeks while Michael Bent continues his transition to loosehead. Isaac Boss misses out again with a hamstring strain so John Cooney will provide cover for Eoin Reddan.

In truth, it was always going to be very difficult for O'Connor to change a team that won so convincingly last week, perhaps Zane Kirchner came into the frame but will still provide a great option from the bench.

Turning to the Northampton selection, a few eyebrows will have been raised at the retention of Ken Pisi at full-back in the continuing absence of Foden and Wilson, after his less than stellar performance last week. It's an admirable vote of confidence in a young player but expect to see him peppered with high balls early on. Many Northampton fans would have preferred to see Kiwi utility back Glenn Dickson get the nod.
Other changes see Samu Manoa move from the second row to the back of the scrum with Christian Day promoted to partner Courtney Lawes; this should give Saints a bit more physicality up front, an area in which they were very disappointing last week. Elsewhere Salesi Ma'afu comes in at tighthead to replace Tom Mercey and Samoan livewire Kahn Fotuali'i has recovered to provide cover for Lee Dickson.


So how can Northampton win this?
Firstly, Northampton's accuracy needs to be vastly improved from last week. Too many silly errors and poor judgement calls at key times let them down badly; one particular instance springs to mind, when at 19-0 down in the first half, they eschewed a kickable penalty for a lineout which came to nothing. Saints need to put their egos aside and focus on the game plan set out by Mallinder and Dylan Hartley has a huge role to play here; while his talent is not in question, there still remain serious questions about his maturity and his ability to be an effective captain.
One imagines that their first plan of attack will be the scrum; Ma'afu will be eyeing up Jack McGrath and hoping to exploit his relative inexperience while Manoa will give them a more explosive carrying option off the base.
Given the somewhat makeshift appearance of their backline in the absence of Foden and George Pisi, you can probably expect them to keep it tight for as long as possible, to try to suck as many Leinster defenders in as possible and create gaps further out.
They do have options in the backs, we all know what George North can do while Luther Burrell is a serious carrying threat; where Northampton fell down last week was their failure to secure any front-foot ball to get their strike runners into decent positions. If they can manage that this week, it's going to be a different game.

So what do Leinster do?
More of the same, one would imagine. Not even the most optimistic of Leinster fan would expect the same bounces of the ball that we got last week but the encouraging thing from Matt O'Connor's perspective was the precision and accuracy in almost everything Leinster attempted last week, both in attack and defence. While Brian O'Driscoll took many of the plaudits for his assists in the first two tries, Rob Kearney was instrumental with the angles of his running and the timing of his passes, particularly for Heaslip's try. Luke Fitzgerald will be hoping to have as much influence again.
The absence of Sean O'Brien after 30 minutes was barely felt with the performance of Rhys Ruddock; he looks like a different player this year and hopefully he can keep the momentum going. Expect Sean Cronin to be given a lot less space too.

Crystal Ball
Paddy Power has Leinster as 11-point favourites for tomorrow night. That seems tempting given last week's performance but there has to be a reaction from Northampton.

Leinster will know that a win of any description will see them 95% of the way to the quarter finals, particulary if Ospreys can beat Castres tonight. while Northampton know that a defeat will end their interest in this year's competition, so there should be no shortage of motivation on either side.

The key question is, are Leinster really as good as they looked last week? It was the first time that they have really clicked under O'Connor, so we can't rule out the possibility that it was a freak occurrence, but if they can reproduce the goods tomorrow, it won't really matter what Northampton do. Are Northampton as bad as they looked last week? Absolutely not, so if Leinster allow their performance to drop, Saints won't be long taking advantage of it.

Jerome Garces takes charge.

Prediction: Leinster to win without a bonus point.

For those who can't be in front of a Sky-enabled TV at 6pm, live commentary is available on Newstalk, beidh na buaicphointí ar fáil ar TG4 ag 21.05.

jamiedav2011

Aye that'd be my prediction too.

The rain, Garces, them getting a few guys back and obviously their sense of annoyance will all play a part, this won't be nearly as flowing and easy as last week.

former legend

What the hell happened my table?

Larbre34

Does anyone know for sure if Block 113 Row H is weather covered, Im estimating probably not!

rrpc

former legend wrote: »

What the hell happened my table?

You made a hames of it :pac:

Podge_irl

Serious table fail :P

former legend

rrpc wrote: »

You made a hames of it :pac:

Ah here, don't be blinding me with techno-jargon.

.ak

FL OUT!!

techdiver

Larbre34 wrote: »

Does anyone know for sure if Block 113 Row H is weather covered, Im estimating probably not!

I would seriously doubt it. In fact I'll go out on a limb and say no. You usually need to be at least 20 rows back to be weather covered.

vienne86

Can't wait for this match - with nearly a sellout now, let's hope for a good atmosphere, and no attempt by any anouncer to 'create' an atmosphere. We need to concentrate for 80 minutes tomorrow - it could be very messy with the weather, and broken up with a whistle-happy Garces. I'd love it to be a good spectacle, but I'll take a win of any sort.

rrpc

former legend wrote: »

Ah here, don't be blinding me with techno-jargon.

hames

Pronunciation: /heɪmz/
noun

• two curved pieces of iron or wood forming or attached to the collar of a draught horse, to which the traces are attached.

Phrases

make a hames of

Irish informal do (something) very badly or ineptly; make a mess of:Galway made a hames of their chance of a goal or former legend made a hames of his table.

CatFromHue

If Ospreys beat Castres tonight with Castres not getting a bonus point and we win tomorrow with no bonus point we're pretty much through as Castres would need to get 2 bonus point wins in their last 2 games to get ahead of us

Leinster 17
Castres 8
Northampton 5/6
Ospreys 5

Swiwi.

former legend wrote: »

Jerome Garces takes charge.

Yeah for former legend with a totally legendary preview
Yeah that Garces takes charge

Leinster for a comfortable enough victory, but nowhere near the margin of last week.

vienne86

CatFromHue wrote: »

If Ospreys beat Castres tonight with Castres not getting a bonus point and we win tomorrow with no bonus point we're pretty much through as Castres would need to get 2 bonus point wins in their last 2 games to get ahead of us

Leinster 17
Castres 8
Northampton 5/6
Ospreys 5

I have my finger on the red button already for tonight's match - no Alun Wyn Jones for Ospreys, and now I gather his replacement, Evans, is also out. Not what we want.

.ak

Is the Castres game on the red button again?

Suppose you can't blame them for such a poor game last week, where as the Cardiff game was actually good end to end stuff.

durkadurka

While not expecting a repeat of last week I think we should have enough to win fairly comfortably.

A Bp would be great but after getting five points last week any old win would be grand.

Kayless

Expect the saints to come out firing for about the first 20 then Leinster will pull away

.ak

Think it'll go one of two ways. Saints will either batter us upfront and squeeze a shock win away. Or Leinster will be acutely aware of the backlash and will do their home work and try to snaffle them and use their power up front to separate them, in the latter I could see Leinster pulling away confortably.

Accuracy is the key, give Garces nothing.

Glass Prison 1214

I'm really looking forward to this but I feel quite cautious, it is essential we get parity up front because of our halfbacks. If we match them up front I'd be confident our backs can tear them to shreds again.

P.C.

Swiwi. wrote: »

Yeah for former legend with a totally legendary preview
Yeah that Garces takes charge

Leinster for a comfortable enough victory, but nowhere near the margin of last week.

I have expailned to my girl friend that she has to ask anyone who does not have an Irish accent - 'What part of Australia are you from?'

I will so laugh if we bump into you tomorrow. :P

errlloyd

Hmmm, torrential rain and South Westerly Gale with me sitting in the North East end of the stadium four rows from the front.... The question is should I be bringing a rain jacket, or a life raft.

Swiwi.

P.C. wrote: »

I have expailned to my girl friend that she has to ask anyone who does not have an Irish accent - 'What part of Australia are you from?'

I will so laugh if we bump into you tomorrow. :P

Well I'll be in block 119 and I don't bite...I was only taking the piss I'm totally immune to being taken for one of them...it's like water of a ducks back. Besides I'm almost more Irish than the Irish these days...

sullivlo

Game day

Really excited for it.

I don't think we will see the showcase of last week. I would be surprised if Fitz is gifted any time on the ball - Northampton will be eager to stop any threats. Plus the weather will be a factor.

Our pack has the beating of them, even our bench can mostly provide some great impact. I think for his work in the loose alone we need to hope Cronin can survive a good 70 mins. I have nothing against Dundon but him and Cooney are the only two people on the bench (okay maybe Bent) who wouldn't have their hand up for a starting berth in any game.

If the pack can squeeze it, the backs can blitz them.

I am hoping beyond all hopes that BOD has a trademark BOD performance. The number of times I will see him play in the flesh is decreasing and I want to soak him up. Plus the kid will be there so I want him to have the memory of him too.

Today the head and the heart say Leinster by less than 7 with no BP.

.ak

Some wind out there...

blackdog1

.ak wrote: »

Some wind out there...

Maybe more of a jimmy gopperth day..definitely gonna be alot of high balls and low percentage rugby. Gonna be a serious tough day at the office. Subs will have a huge bearing on this game

Glass Prison 1214

blackdog1 wrote: »

Maybe more of a jimmy gopperth day..definitely gonna be alot of high balls and low percentage rugby. Gonna be a serious tough day at the office. Subs will have a huge bearing on this game

Bench will have a big bearing on the game alright, good thing we have a very experienced one.

molloyjh

blackdog1 wrote: »

Maybe more of a jimmy gopperth day..definitely gonna be alot of high balls and low percentage rugby. Gonna be a serious tough day at the office. Subs will have a huge bearing on this game

Surely with this wind high balls should be at a minimum? With it due to be wet as well it probably won't be vintage stuff. And after getting so badly beaten in the contact area last week that's what Saints will be targeting. That could make this game very difficult....

Jello

It's not expected to be nearly as windy as this by evening time. I'd imagine the ball will still be slippy though.

Swiwi.

Low flat kicks will be the order of the day, and keeping it up the jumper. NH will be the happier of the 2 sides with these conditions I would think. I expect to see Kearney, Kearney and Fitz wearing thermals...

vienne86

It's very windy out there now, but I think the wind might drop a bit by KO time. It won't be pretty, and it won't be comfortable for fans. Any ole win will do though.

rrpc

Jello wrote: »

It's not expected to be nearly as windy as this by evening time. I'd imagine the ball will still be slippy though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hJQ18S6aag

Swiwi.

vienne86 wrote: »

It's very windy out there now, but I think the wind might drop a bit by KO time. It won't be pretty, and it won't be comfortable for fans. Any ole win will do though.

The game might as well be in Wellington with these conditions TBH.

errlloyd

Lads have you had a look at the rainfall radar, it's about to get very very wet.

vienne86

Swiwi. wrote: »

The game might as well be in Wellington with these conditions TBH.

I'm just glad it's a home game for us. Hopefully the atmosphere will be good and it'll lift our guys.

Tox56

If you could have one rugby player in the world under the high ball in these conditions.. OK probably Folau but Kearney is up there... If they kick he'll catch it. Makes you wonder though, WTF is Ken Pisi doing at 15 again?! He's going to be targeted mercilessly

Swiwi.

Tox56 wrote: »

If you could have one rugby player in the world under the high ball in these conditions.. OK probably Folau but Kearney is up there... If they kick he'll catch it. Makes you wonder though, WTF is Ken Pisi doing at 15 again?! He's going to be targeted mercilessly

Provided the Leinster halves can get the ball to land in the right place...

fitz

Swiwi. wrote: »

The game might as well be in Wellington with these conditions TBH.

I've just about thawed out from the wind in the cake tin during the RWC2011 QFs. Jaysus.

Tox56

Swiwi. wrote: »

Provided the Leinster halves can get the ball to land in the right place...

Apparently Jimmy G was retelling this story to Madigan at a match earlier this season.. Hopefully Madigan was taking note..

(Ill look for any excuse to post that video)

rrpc

errlloyd wrote: »

Lads have you had a look at the rainfall radar, it's about to get very very wet.

But it will dry up.

met eireann wrote:

Heavy rain this morning and gale force winds with gusts of 90 to 120km/h.

But drier, less windy weather, along the West Coast, by about lunchtime, will extend across the country through the course of the afternoon. Top temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.

blackdog1

Gonna be like the Glasgow game last night. High balls when you have the wind..low when you don't. Might be very hard to get a good kick chase when the wind is with us due to distance the ball might travel. Gonna be alot of scrums today, could see the whole front row changed by 50-55. Lineout accuracy might be key today

durkadurka

Tox56 wrote: »

Apparently Jimmy G was retelling this story to Madigan at a match earlier this season.. Hopefully Madigan was taking note..

(Ill look for any excuse to post that video)

I witnessed that!

Taco Corp

Looks like it might rain

durkadurka

How windy will it be in the enclosed bowl of aviva?

molloyjh

durkadurka wrote: »

How windy will it be in the enclosed bowl of aviva?

VERY!

The place is a bit of a wind trap.

[Jackass]

Shocking conditions here in D4. Dirty rain spitting down and an absolute gale blowing.

Should make for an interesting game.

It's a shame it wasn't played last night, was a perfectly still, dry night without a cloud in the sky (although freezing).

19543261

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

Looks like it might rain

Blue glow engulfing our countryland? Surely its a good omen... :cool:

.ak

Surprised Leinster aren't pushing the 'blue storm brewing' thing again.

Swiwi.

Gotta love the bike to work scheme: government subsidised wet-weather gear for those rainy commutes to work Leinster home games at the Aviva.

laugh

Gerry T must be reading the blogs: "There’ll be a whiff of cordite in the air alright across European club rugby this weekend, and not least in the Sportsground and the Aviva today."

Buer

laugh wrote: »

Gerry T must be reading the blogs: "There’ll be a whiff of cordite in the air alright across European club rugby this weekend, and not least in the Sportsground and the Aviva today."

Where do you think the blogs got the phrase?!

P.C.

Swiwi. wrote: »

Well I'll be in block 119 and I don't bite...I was only taking the piss I'm totally immune to being taken for one of them...it's like water of a ducks back. Besides I'm almost more Irish than the Irish these days...

We are in Block 519.