Has Vladimir Putin finally met his nemesis?

Iwasfrozen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I hope so, I would love to see Ukraine join the EU. The EU needs to expand more, develop the union with the goal of eventually bringing in Turkey, the other post Soviet states and eventually Russia.

Jaysus, sure why stop there? Why not continue Eastwards, and pick up Syria, Iraq and the middle east? One or two of the 'stans? :eek:

Hannibal

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I hope so, I would love to see Ukraine join the EU. The EU needs to expand more, develop the union with the goal of eventually bringing in Turkey, the other post Soviet states and eventually Russia.

Turkey will never happen in the EU. It is a Muslim country bordering Syria, Iraq and Iran and that alone would worry every other country in Europe.
Turkey is potentially an economic power due to it's size, population, location and tourism.
It has a history of strength particularly with Constantinople and the Roman Empire. More recently ie 100 years ago it was the centre of the Ottoman empire which at it's peak contained historic and cultural cities like Istanbul, Athens, Cairo, Alexandria, Tripoli, Baghdad, Bucharest and Rome apart probably the three most sacred cities for religion in the world in Jerusalem, Mecca and Medina. Europe would run a mile from the history and potential of Turkey.
Russia in the EU haha?? I presume thats a joke. The EU would eventually be absolved into Russia and become an outpost. Germany would be shaking at the thought of it.

czx

Hannibal wrote: »

Russia in the EU haha?? I presume thats a joke. The EU would eventually be absolved into Russia and become an outpost. Germany would be shaking at the thought of it.

Russia could be absolved into germany #2ndwurld4lyfe

BuilderPlumber

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I hope so, I would love to see Ukraine join the EU. The EU needs to expand more, develop the union with the goal of eventually bringing in Turkey, the other post Soviet states and eventually Russia.

I think the EU's original plan was to expand to include Russia, all the Soviet republics, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Israel and other such countries. The reality at present means that these plans are totally derailed.

Russia: sees itself as a self contained power bloc and does not really need to be part of the EU.
Other ex USSR countries: Many have close ties to Russia instead. Others like Ukraine are unsure of their future. Yet, more like the Central Asian Republics are too remote at present to be members of the EU and forge closer ties to either Russia, America, China or surprisingly all three for different reasons.
Iran: under its new moderate government, wants to improve ties with EU but again sees its future as a regional power and would like to have Russia's status.
Iraq: is to all intents and purposes 50% a colony of the EU.
Israel: more an American satellite.
Turkey: the direction here is unsure. Earlier, we saw popular moves within it to want to join the EU but more recent Turkish politicians are not as enthusiastic as they were.
EU itself: I cannot see it take on anyone bar the former Yugoslavia nations in the near future. The Euro crisis, poor economic growth and instability in potential candidate countries (Ukraine, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Lebanon) in recent years makes matters too risky. Maybe instead we will see a looser trade based Eurasian free trade organisation or something?

BuilderPlumber

Hannibal wrote: »

Turkey will never happen in the EU. It is a Muslim country bordering Syria, Iraq and Iran and that alone would worry every other country in Europe.
Turkey is potentially an economic power due to it's size, population, location and tourism.
It has a history of strength particularly with Constantinople and the Roman Empire. More recently ie 100 years ago it was the centre of the Ottoman empire which at it's peak contained historic and cultural cities like Istanbul, Athens, Cairo, Alexandria, Tripoli, Baghdad, Bucharest and Rome apart probably the three most sacred cities for religion in the world in Jerusalem, Mecca and Medina. Europe would run a mile from the history and potential of Turkey.
Russia in the EU haha?? I presume thats a joke. The EU would eventually be absolved into Russia and become an outpost. Germany would be shaking at the thought of it.

I don't think Turkey's status as a Muslim country will stop it joining the EU. Yes, there are some Islamophobes who will argue this but will turn a blind eye to Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, etc. joining the EU simply because not too many know they are even Islamic countries (though moderate). Indirectly/unofficially, 50% of Iraq is technically already in the EU. The EU would love to have a moderate and well economically developed Iran as one of its main members (in 10-20 years time, it may be the EU's only option to financially survive). Realistically, I can see Iran enter into a transition period in the late Khamenei years (similar to Franco's latter days in Spain) with a new much more moderate post-Khamenei era that could lead anywhere (provided nothing like 9/11 or a GW Bush derails the current steps towards reform like happened under Khatami, thus leading to the election of Iran's poorest and weakest president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). However, it will more likely become a partner not a member. Turkey may desire membership. However, the fact that the EU is barely out of its crises and the Euro has barely survived means that the inclusion of other countries within it will not be on the cards for the foreseeable few years.

As regards Russia. EU would more likely form loose trade relations with Russia. Russia would not be interested in joining a union that would weaken their current superpower position. True, Russia could well absorb the EU into its borders and history has not been kind to anyone who tried to take over Russia (think Hitler, Napoleon, etc.).

Jonny7

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

IThe EU would love to have a moderate and well economically developed Iran as one of its main members (in 10-20 years time, it may be the EU's only option to financially survive)

Iran will join the EU when.. *spins wheel*.. Japan does

josip

Knock down to Klitschko!
Is Putin out of the fight or will he now start the dirty stuff?

bobcoffee

Turkey joining the EU has and will be a long term goal of the EU/turkey.
Its been in the works for a long time and nothing new with that at all.
When.. only god knows :P

as for the op in hand, eh no.. not even close..
if putin position comes under attack well he can always create another throne for him to rule with in russia.
he just basically owns Russia and don't think anyone would dare go up against him in any real fashion.

BuilderPlumber

bobcoffee wrote: »

Turkey joining the EU has and will be a long term goal of the EU/turkey.
Its been in the works for a long time and nothing new with that at all.
When.. only god knows :P

as for the op in hand, eh no.. not even close..
if putin position comes under attack well he can always create another throne for him to rule with in russia.
he just basically owns Russia and don't think anyone would dare go up against him in any real fashion.

I agree that Turkey joining the EU is a long term goal for both. With the Euro crisis, I think Turkey have had second thoughts about total membership. As for the EU itself: Expansion is not their current priority.

All that said and done, the EU has always been expansionary and longterm this will continue. I can see virtually all European, Middle Eastern and Eurasian countries potentially joining (bar one obvious one: Russia).

Most likely short-term ones to join: former Yugoslavia, Albania.
Medium term: Turkey, Ukraine, Iran, the Caucasian states, Belarus, ex-USSR central Asian states, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, etc. Some depend on the regime in charge but it may make sense for to be at least partial members for all.
Longterm: Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq (officially), Afghanistan (officially), Pakistan, India, etc.

At present, many of the above echo the pre-EU Status of many current EU members. Later Franco era Spain echoes very much current late Khamenei period Iran (is Hassan Rohani perhaps going to be the post-Khamenei moderate King of Iran after his term of presidency ends and should other events not derail Iran's current moderate policy). Belarus at present is ruled by Lukashenko, a hardline nationalist with a fondness for Hitler. But latterly, he recognises that this impoverished country does need to open up. As for Central Asia's regimes: they are very dictatorial and would be an embarrassment for EU membership but are needed by the West because of Afghanistan. As for other countries like India and Pakistan: the issue of a European takeover may echo colonialism too much. This will also be an element in others too. So, it will depend on how it is sold. The EU's image we must remember is currently very poor, and the downturn is especially felt in states bordering potential new members (Greece obviously but also Latvia and others).

In August 2001, I would have said many of the above would be members (and that the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be in the depression ward where they belong and not destroying countries' economies because of whatever chip is on his shoulders). BUT 9/11 either caused war, bad feeling among countries, or recession and woke up the real intentions of another mentally unstable dude called George W Bush. The wars and elections of depressed hardline idiots with no experience set things back fro years.