Buying 2014

Mr.McLovin

Is there any incentives to buy a house in 2014 like 2012's MIR or 2013's exemption from property tax for 3 years?

Woodville56

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Is there any incentives to buy a house in 2014 like 2012's MIR or 2013's exemption from property tax for 3 years?

Is there any chance that the RPT 3 year exemption will be carried forward to 2014 house purchases ?

runawaybishop

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Is there any incentives to buy a house in 2014 like 2012's MIR or 2013's exemption from property tax for 3 years?

The no LPT isn't really an incentive, its minuscule.

stevedublin

Possible lower property prices as repo's etc. increase supply.

moxin

Govt interference:

2012 had the surge of buyers for the ending of the MIR
2013 *might* have a surge of buyers for the LPT exemption though its alot smaller than the above
2014...what else can the govt think of to interfere in the market? Budget day has passed so there is hope that there is nothing coming.

Zamboni

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Is there any incentives to buy a house in 2014 like 2012's MIR or 2013's exemption from property tax for 3 years?

If you don't buy in 2014 - you will never buy. The rich will simply sell their houses to each other and laugh and the poor will be housed by the state.
Private tenants in the middle will be tossed from landlord to landlord like cats toying with a doomed mouse. One drop of blood at a time.

:pac:

Ardent

The Mrs and I will be looking to purchase a family home in 2014. Unless a bit of sanity returns to the Dublin market early next year, we will either purchase outside Dublin or rent for a year.

Supply is the biggest problem right now - when we went looking at potential areas recently we couldn't get over the lack of for-sale signs. This needs to change.

Mr.McLovin

stevedublin wrote: »

Possible lower property prices as repo's etc. increase supply.

how likely is that though? seems the strategy is to cherry pick houses that may have equity and set examples than to actually tackle that problem

I could see them building again before that becoming a factor but I'm no expert as seen in a previous thread

moxin wrote: »

Govt interference:
2014...what else can the govt think of to interfere in the market? Budget day has passed so there is hope that there is nothing coming.

The interference for 2014 might be to keep strangling the supply either by NAMA or the banks, seems to be working too unfortunately for buyers

spaceHopper

If you don't buy in 2014 the banks will need cash and we'll see a Malta style bail in of the banks using your savings (and mine), you have to spend it in 2014 or lose it! You'd better buy a house, a big bag a of rice and a shot gun to defend it.

Mr.McLovin

runawaybishop wrote: »

The no LPT isn't really an incentive, its minuscule.

true but its better than nought I suppose

Tigger

Zamboni wrote: »

If you don't buy in 2014 - you will never buy. The rich will simply sell their houses to each other and laugh and the poor will be housed by the state.
Private tenants in the middle will be tossed from landlord to landlord like cats toying with a doomed mouse. One drop of blood at a time.

:pac:

lol

Glenbhoy

stevedublin wrote: »

Possible lower property prices as repo's etc. increase supply.

or when the cash currently funding 50% of purchases runs dry.

Mortgage lending is currently 5.4% of 2006 levels. But, this boom is here to stay, not bubble or bounce this time though, cause bubbles can only be caused by excess credit and we're not seeing that!!

caew

Ardent wrote: »

The Mrs and I will be looking to purchase a family home in 2014. Unless a bit of sanity returns to the Dublin market early next year, we will either purchase outside Dublin or rent for a year.

Supply is the biggest problem right now - when we went looking at potential areas recently we couldn't get over the lack of for-sale signs. This needs to change.

Agreed, as well as the supply problem sellers are also turning away buyers in the hope prices will rise. In my own experience and I've seen a few posts on here with similar experiences, the deal is almost done and the seller has backed out thinking they will get more.

MurdyWurdy

We also want to buy in 2014 - I agree lack of supply is our main problem. Also, we won't be planning to apply for a mortgage until mid 2014 but I am concerned with how much the banks are willing to lend etc

Villa05

Glenbhoy wrote: »

cause bubbles can only be caused by excess credit!

This is the latest spin by the media. Again it is not true

HouseHunter13

is it just me or is there very little added to daft/myhome at the moment?

thought January would be busy time with new sales/stock no?

caew

The figures for daft are:

79 new listings on 01/012014
99 new listings on 04/01/2014
137 new listings on 08/01/2014

Going up slowly!

dowhatyoulove

Looking to buy this year or next year but keeping a sharp eye out for anything that stands out.. I've no idea about fees etc so a bit more research has to take place on my half before I go anywhere near buying a home.

handlemaster

If you can afford it and you like the property buy it. Prices will rise again in Dublin this year. There's not enough supply and houses don't get builth in a day.

GavMan

handlemaster wrote: »

If you can afford it and you like the property buy it. Prices will rise again in Dublin this year. There's not enough supply and houses don't get builth in a day.

I'd be wary enough of advice like that IMO. Yes, prices will go up but in very few areas IMO. Mainly proper south county Dublin (D4, Stillorgan, Blackrock, Foxrock, Killiney, Dalkey, etc.)

The sellers market thing is little over hyped IMO. There are plenty of fools trying to ride that coat tail and have over priced their unit. Namely in the likes of Firhouse, Knocklyon, Rathfarmham, Templeouge, etc. Some units there seeing no movement in months because they are over priced by about 10-15%. Opportunistic stuff really.

I think you'll only see nominal increases in most parts of Dublin, especial west and north.

You'll probably see a depression outside of Dublin and Cities. For example, I don't think you see any rises across the board in Kildare and probably the same in Meath.

My advice is to take your time. Judge each unit on its own merits and how it stacks up meeting your needs and only offer what you truly believe its worth. It might take time but you'll find a property you're happy with and at a price you're comfortable with. Never be afraid to walk away

handlemaster

Dublin west which I am familiar when with has a large population and if you look at daft there are very few properties for sale and hardly any to rent.

GavMan

handlemaster wrote: »

Dublin west which I am familiar when with has a large population and if you look at daft there are very few properties for sale and hardly any to rent.

True there isn't a huge stock but there also isn't a huge amount of buyers out there either, going by the number of mortgages drawn down in the country

o1s1n

GavMan wrote: »

My advice is to take your time. Judge each unit on its own merits and how it stacks up meeting your needs and only offer what you truly believe its worth. It might take time but you'll find a property you're happy with and at a price you're comfortable with. Never be afraid to walk away

Definitely this. Have a top limit on each property after you view it and do not go passed this limit. Lack of supply is causing people to go mad with their bids.

I've been watching the market in my choice of area (was looking to buy in Bray) for a few years and started viewing/making offers in September last year.

There was one property in particular we'd really have loved but the bidding got mad so we backed out.

All houses we viewed had loads of people at the viewings. All of the bidding went over asking. I'd originally thought this might be the estate agents pulling a fast one, so just told them to contact me if the winning bidder over asking dropped out - this never happened.

Eventually found one and went sale agreed in December. So in total it took almost a good, solid 4 months of viewings and offers.

I found it to be a really horrible, stressful experience (especially when you think you have a house you like in the bag, only to be outbid once again and have to start all over) - but don't let that force you into bidding more than you want/settling for something you don't want. I almost caved and bought something I wasn't 100% happy with the location of (as I was beginning to freak out thinking the search would never end) - but didn't in the end thankfully and got something we're extremely happy with

Edit; just one more thing which helped us out - try and keep in touch with estate agents. We did our best to become 'known' to them and one in particular would ring us up straight away when something they knew we were interested in came on the market.

Property websites really aren't kept up to date nearly enough. Any time I rang about one listed on Daft/myhome.ie in Bray, they were either sold or sale agreed. A lot of these houses are still up there today.

handlemaster

GavMan wrote: »

True there isn't a huge stock but there also isn't a huge amount of buyers out there either, going by the number of mortgages drawn down in the country

I would disagree. Went to a viewing late last year in Dublin 15 there were 13/14 different parties viewing. The demand is there alright. People forget you Dont stop living g because of a recession. People want to have there own place the desire to own is very strong in Ireland.

Theboinkmaster

handlemaster wrote: »

If you can afford it and you like the property buy it. Prices will rise again in Dublin this year. There's not enough supply and houses don't get builth in a day.

Many people actually expect the opposite so I wouldn't be going around saying prices will rise.

Many analysts believe there's currently a bubble in Dublin driven by cash buyers which is about to pop and will drive down prices. Plus also pending repossessions etc.

handlemaster

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Many people actually expect the opposite so I wouldn't be going around saying prices will rise.

Many analysts believe there's currently a bubble in Dublin driven by cash buyers which is about to pop and will drive down prices. Plus also pending repossessions etc.

The repossessions will be on a drip drip... no shock drop in prices there.

o1s1n

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Many people actually expect the opposite so I wouldn't be going around saying prices will rise.

Many analysts believe there's currently a bubble in Dublin driven by cash buyers which is about to pop and will drive down prices. Plus also pending repossessions etc.

It's a very difficult one to call alright and I wouldn't want to be the one trying to advise others.

I've held off buying for several years now due to the promise of pending repossessions decreasing the market even further.

The fact that there's still no budge leads me to believe it's not going to happen. Or if it does, it'll be drip fed.

Obviously there's a huge chance I could be wrong as I'm not an expert, but it wasn't worth the gamble for me to wait any longer (plus you know, I need somewhere to live! )

caew

handlemaster wrote: »

I would disagree. Went to a viewing late last year in Dublin 15 there were 13/14 different parties viewing. The demand is there alright. People forget you Dont stop living g because of a recession. People want to have there own place the desire to own is very strong in Ireland.

The number of viewings means nothing. I sold a house in Dublin 15 last year. When it went up for sale at I had numerous parties viewings but no offers came from them.

I viewed a house before christmas that i am interested in putting a bid on. Its been up for sale for 7 months and the agent tells me there has been loads of viewings and no offers. The no offers is the important piece of information I want, the number of viewings is irrelevant to me.

o1s1n

The viewings is a good indication of the pool of potential buyers. (which is a reflection of possible demand)

If you're going to lots of viewings which are packed with people then it's logical that there is a demand.

No offers just mean there was no demand for that particular property after the viewing (perhaps it had issues not visible in the ad). The ones I viewed (and tried to view) over the last four months were all in demand - both in viewings and the resulting bids.

All depends where you're looking/what you're looking at really.

handlemaster

caew wrote: »

The number of viewings means nothing. I sold a house in Dublin 15 last year. When it went up for sale at I had numerous parties viewings but no offers came from them.

I viewed a house before christmas that i am interested in putting a bid on. Its been up for sale for 7 months and the agent tells me there has been loads of viewings and no offers. The no offers is the important piece of information I want, the number of viewings is irrelevant to me.

If people bother to show up early in the morning it shows interest. More importantly was sale agreed within two weeks. If property is not selling in Dublin it has been priced to high simple not because of low demand.

caew

You can have one viewer and an offer or 100 viewers and no offers.

People looking at houses doesn't automatically mean there is a demand for that house, there are many many reasons why a house may not be attractvie to potential buyers. I have looked at 20 plus houses, but I don't have a demand for any of them bar one.

It was the case with the houses you were looking at but that is not enough for a generalisation.

caew

handlemaster wrote: »

If people bother to show up early in the morning it shows interest. More importantly was sale agreed within two weeks. If property is not selling in Dublin it has been priced to high simple not because of low demand.

I don't know if you can judge the level of someones interest by the time they attend a viewing.

Convenience is probably a big factor in the time people book viewings for.

Obviously if a house sold in two weeks there was interest by the person who bought it does mean either that there was huge demand, the seller may have been looking a quick sale and did the deal.

o1s1n

caew wrote: »

People looking at houses doesn't automatically mean there is a demand for that house....

No, but lots of people looking at houses means there's a demand for houses - isn't that what's being discussed?

The demand of a specific house doesn't really have anything to do with the overall demand - as you said, there may be no demand for it because of a multitude of reasons. Doesn't mean lots of people don't want to buy houses now.

caew

o1s1n wrote: »

No, but lots of people looking at houses means there's a demand for houses - isn't that what's being discussed?

The demand of a specific house doesn't really have anything to do with the overall demand - as you said, there may be no demand for it because of a multitude of reasons. Doesn't mean lots of people don't want to buy houses now.

Doesn't mean they do want to buy either. There are is an assumed correlation here.

Personally if I viewed a house and the estate agent told me there was 1000 viewings or 1 viewing it would make no difference to me. Some people may react if they hear there are lots of viewings and see it as a reflection of demand and that is up to you to do so.

I react when I hear of the offers, that is when I know there is a genuine 'demand' for the house, someone has shown their intention to buy.

Bepolite

In relation to price increases this is what I've read, based on last quarter.

Dublin West prices actually fell, South Co. Dublin saw a tiny increase (less than 1%). The city centre saw increases but this was fueled by increases on properties sub €200,000 so these saw large % increases but not large in terms of € valve.

Supply is an absolute nightmare which is fueling a mini-bubble/dead cat bounce/price stabilisation what ever you want to call it.

I welcome any corrections.

o1s1n

caew wrote: »

Doesn't mean they do want to buy either.

Can we not assume that people who view houses are in the market to buy houses? I know correlation doesn't imply causation as the saying goes, but why else would someone view a house?

And and that, would those viewing houses for reasons other than potentially being in the market to buy a house not be considered a minority?

caew wrote: »

Personally if I viewed a house and the estate agent told me there was 1000 viewings or 1 viewing it would make no difference to me. Some people may react if they hear there are lots of viewings and see it as a reflection of demand and that is up to you to do so.

I react when I hear of the offers, that is when I know there is a genuine 'demand' for the house, someone has shown their intention to buy.

I'm not going by what an estate agent told me though, would always take that with a pinch of salt.

I'm going by what I've witnessed at a load of viewings.

All of them were packed with people. Granted, some were probably tyre kicker/rubbernecking types - but you could see there were many genuine parties there.

Another thing which reflected the demand in the area, the speed in which they sold. Quite a volume of the ones I viewed didn't even make it to property websites. Listed and sold within a week or two of going up.

handlemaster

caew wrote: »

I don't know if you can judge the level of someones interest by the time they attend a viewing.

Convenience is probably a big factor in the time people book viewings for.

Obviously if a house sold in two weeks there was interest by the person who bought it does mean either that there was huge demand, the seller may have been looking a quick sale and did the deal.

Your probably right they turned up for the craic !!!

Glenbhoy

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

is it just me or is there very little added to daft/myhome at the moment?

thought January would be busy time with new sales/stock no?

Most estate agents only opened again on Monday, if supply is to increase this year, then it will be mid Feb imo before that becomes evident - that's normally just before the prime selling season starts.

Glenbhoy

handlemaster wrote: »

I would disagree. Went to a viewing late last year in Dublin 15 there were 13/14 different parties viewing. The demand is there alright. People forget you Dont stop living g because of a recession. People want to have there own place the desire to own is very strong in Ireland.

There's at least two types of demand (I say 'at least', as I'm no economist and am coining the terminology on the fly;)). Aspirational demand and Viable demand.

Aspirational demand refers to what are commonly known as tyre-kickers, Viable demand refers to those walking into the viewing with an approval in principle letter in their back pocket.

Given the number and value of mortgages issued and drawn down over the past year, it's reasonable to assume that a good proportion of viewers are aspirational.

For me, the key factor out there at present is that mortgages are (or were as at the end of Sept) approx 5% of the level they were at at their peak levels in 2006, and even more surprisingly, they are currently running below their levels in 2010, 2011 and 2012.


Below are the figures for the first three quarters of the years in question:

2010 - €3,764M
2011 - €1,824M
2012 - €1,637M
2013 - €1,599M

Standard Toaster

o1s1n wrote: »

Another thing which reflected the demand in the area, the speed in which they sold. Quite a volume of the ones I viewed didn't even make it to property websites. Listed and sold within a week or two of going up.

Can I ask did you become aware of these properties, the ones that were not listed online etc.

o1s1n

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Can I ask did you become aware of these properties, the ones that were not listed online etc.

Yeah, by checking in with all the estate agents in Bray every 1-2 weeks and asking was there anything new on the horizon.

You'd be surprised how many just dont make it to being listed online. Ground work is definitely needed.

Its an absolute pain and time consuming - but does pay off. Resulted in Estate agents ringing me about new houses coming up in my desired areas.

jmayo

handlemaster wrote: »

If people bother to show up early in the morning it shows interest...

handlemaster wrote: »

Your probably right they turned up for the craic !!!

Actually I knew a couple of people who used to go to viewings almost as a hobby.
Yes they had property already and may have been in market for more, but they went to viewings at weekends almost as a day out.
They saw it as a way of keepig up to speed with the market.
Granted this was pre bubble economy.
God knows how they managed when that arrived with all the champagne and
canapés at all the glam new development showings.

Plus you do get to see inside other people's houses if you are that way inclined.

I agree with caew and Glenboy on this.
It doesn't matter if a 1000 view the house, the key is how many want or are capable of making an offer.

handlemaster

jmayo wrote: »

Actually I knew a couple of people who used to go to viewings almost as a hobby.
Yes they had property already and may have been in market for more, but they went to viewings at weekends almost as a day out.
They saw it as a way of keepig up to speed with the market.
Granted this was pre bubble economy.
God knows how they managed when that arrived with all the champagne and
canapés at all the glam new development showings.

Plus you do get to see inside other people's houses if you are that way inclined.

I agree with caew and Glenboy on this.
It doesn't matter if a 1000 view the house, the key is how many want or are capable of making an offer.

Property is selling in Dublin .. that's demand satisfied.

Theboinkmaster

Glenbhoy wrote: »

There's at least two types of demand (I say 'at least', as I'm no economist and am coining the terminology on the fly;)). Aspirational demand and Viable demand.

Aspirational demand refers to what are commonly known as tyre-kickers, Viable demand refers to those walking into the viewing with an approval in principle letter in their back pocket.

Given the number and value of mortgages issued and drawn down over the past year, it's reasonable to assume that a good proportion of viewers are aspirational.

For me, the key factor out there at present is that mortgages are (or were as at the end of Sept) approx 5% of the level they were at at their peak levels in 2006, and even more surprisingly, they are currently running below their levels in 2010, 2011 and 2012.


Below are the figures for the first three quarters of the years in question:

2010 - €3,764M
2011 - €1,824M
2012 - €1,637M
2013 - €1,599M

I'd expect that given the low volume of transactions and we've heard at least half (65%?) of house sales in dublin in 2013 were cash.

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

Property is selling in Dublin .. that's demand satisfied.

By the same logic, the property market was grand in Leitrim in 2006!

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

By the same logic, the property market was grand in Leitrim in 2006!

I'm talking about demand, not opinion on what is happening is good or bad

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

I'm talking about demand, not opinion on what is happening is good or bad

Transaction volume is tiny so demand is also rather small too?

lima

It appears that most of the sales in January in Dublin are for very low amounts. Lots of small apatrments etc.

What do people think of this?

Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action..

snakeoilsales

Its a sign that the rich Irish are waiting for prices to increase...

Only crap on the market now...

The rich Irish will have a nice summer...I'm sure they have already bough their BBq in the sales,

handlemaster

I'd say there will be a hold off or pull back until the later half of this year then a surge again as people realise prices havent abated all that much.

moxin

handlemaster wrote: »

I'd say there will be a hold off or pull back until the later half of this year then a surge again as people realise prices havent abated all that much.

You've changed your tune

Pull back means a fall in prices?