The madness has returned

handlemaster

Its top heavy alright

lima

techdiver wrote: »

Another fine example of the madness!

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/213-beechwood-court-stillorgan-road-blackrock-co-dublin/2694990?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

EDIT: Checking the property price register, another 2 bed sold for €280k recently. So almost €100k in the difference!!

Lol, for me I instantly put that out of my radar. But who would actually pay that?I just don't understand??

GavMan

handlemaster wrote: »

Must be very little interest if he's calling you to see if you want to offer. EA should do that but my experience they never have

Possibly but I don't think so. There were a few couples viewing with us. She had that offer on the day and day before. Seemingly after too. She said she would call on Monday and she did. So fair play to her. Maybe she's just diligent

Cuddlesworth

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Others are insisting this is a dead cat bounce which is not a proven or definite thing. People were outright asked to point to an economic theory of dead cat bounce happens in property and have yet to produce. It is a stock market expression relating to fast moving stock transactions. It is pretty hard for it to happen in a much slower sales environment that is property.

Thats because a DCB actually has its roots in stocks not property, of which there are plenty of examples. But the principal remains the same and has been seen on the more macro economic scales, hence why its brought in here.

TBH, after seeing some of the hysteria involving houses in Dublin recently I think it would be hard to say we are not likely to see another larger crash. It's not something I want to see, since it will most likely involve another bailout. But if we do see continual 6% annual growth in prices, where do you think the money is going to keep coming from?

kennyb3

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

TBH, after seeing some of the hysteria involving houses in Dublin recently I think it would be hard to say we are not likely to see another larger crash. It's not something I want to see, since it will most likely involve another bailout. But if we do see continual 6% annual growth in prices, where do you think the money is going to keep coming from?

The 90bn of private household deposits? - which has been remaining steady despite the large number of cash purchases in the year.

handlemaster

there are so few properties changing hands its hardly an avalanche just yet. But I cant help but notice private investor funds and the like have snapped up a lot of property over the last two years. These guys buy to make a profit and don't buy on the advise of what they see on boards.ie.

minotour

techdiver wrote: »

Another fine example of the madness!

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/213-beechwood-court-stillorgan-road-blackrock-co-dublin/2694990?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

EDIT: Checking the property price register, another 2 bed sold for €280k recently. So almost €100k in the difference!!

I see this ad and i feel relieved that i may not be in as much neg eq as i thought.....am i being selfish? Hard to imagine anyone actually paying that price though............

Idbatterim

I see this ad and i feel relieved that i may not be in as much neg eq as i thought.....am i being selfish? Hard to imagine anyone actually paying that price though............
__________________

Its a very nice apartment, but personally I wouldnt spend any more than 200k on a nice 2 bed apartment in a good area...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-altamont-hall-dundrum-dublin-14/2659031

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/olaf-hall-sandyford-road-dundrum-dublin-16/2230923

why would anyone with that money A) buy it as an investment (I doubt they would, yields would be **** compared to alternatives) to own (for not much more, you could get a nice 2 or 3 bedroomed house)

moxin

techdiver wrote: »

Another fine example of the madness!

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/213-beechwood-court-stillorgan-road-blackrock-co-dublin/2694990?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

EDIT: Checking the property price register, another 2 bed sold for €280k recently. So almost €100k in the difference!!

Could be NAMA chancing their arm on the sale.

techdiver

minotour wrote: »

I see this ad and i feel relieved that i may not be in as much neg eq as i thought.....am i being selfish? Hard to imagine anyone actually paying that price though............

"Unfortunately", I doubt very much that the price being asked is in any way realistic. One only sold recently for €280k so, I think we have a dreamer on our hands with this one. More than likely the reason for such asking price increases is the bull**** that is being peddled in the media about a boom in prices in SCD. Eventually it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as everyone jumps on board.

I have seen more properties all around Dublin with the same crazy differential between asking prices and properties that have sold in the past year.

jmayo

kennyb3 wrote: »

The 90bn of private household deposits? - which has been remaining steady despite the large number of cash purchases in the year.

So all the people with deposits are going to rush out and spend them on property ?
Maybe some will, but a fair few people have at least copped on after seeing the current bust.
And I do think the bust is not over.
How can one consider the bust to be over when we have 100,000 of mortgages in default ?

handlemaster wrote: »

there are so few properties changing hands its hardly an avalanche just yet. But I cant help but notice private investor funds and the like have snapped up a lot of property over the last two years. These guys buy to make a profit and don't buy on the advise of what they see on boards.ie.

Investors invest for continuing returns and at the moment the yields on Irish property is pretty good.
These guys are playing for the long term not to flip next year or the year after.

Also these high end investors are massive players with access to huge capital resourses.
They aren't trooping down to the local Irish bank leveraging another Irish property for the loans.

Cuddlesworth

handlemaster wrote: »

there are so few properties changing hands its hardly an avalanche just yet. But I cant help but notice private investor funds and the like have snapped up a lot of property over the last two years. These guys buy to make a profit and don't buy on the advise of what they see on boards.ie.

Then I'm not sure if many of them have had experience of problem Irish tenants and our court system. Ignoring the prices of the houses themselves, the risk involved with a problem tenant and the associated costs can be immense. After a couple of years of it, I could see their underwriters telling them to back off.

kennyb3

jmayo wrote: »

So all the people with deposits are going to rush out and spend them on property ?
Maybe some will, but a fair few people have at least copped on after seeing the current bust.
And I do think the bust is not over.
How can one consider the bust to be over when we have 100,000 of mortgages in default ?

Obviously not all (where did I say that?), clearly my point was that we don't know how finite the cash that's driving a significant part of the market uptick/spike is. It's very hard to counter argue that the cash will dry up when you consider the total value of Dublin sales for 2013 to date to be to be only €2.6bn, and a significant portion of that is mortgage based. So clearly even 1-2% of that 90bn going into property would sustain the same level of activity next year, without significant erosion of the overall cash pile and clearly that's not to mention cash on deposit abroad.

Ray Palmer

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Thats because a DCB actually has its roots in stocks not property, of which there are plenty of examples. But the principal remains the same and has been seen on the more macro economic scales, hence why its brought in here.

TBH, after seeing some of the hysteria involving houses in Dublin recently I think it would be hard to say we are not likely to see another larger crash. It's not something I want to see, since it will most likely involve another bailout. But if we do see continual 6% annual growth in prices, where do you think the money is going to keep coming from?

There is so little benefit for keeping your money in the bank at the moment I would suspect those with saving will invest it. It could easily go into property.

I know I will build an extension next year and I would consider a property. Parents will give their children money. People who have been waiting will also take their saving and put it into property.

The principle for a fast moving purchases in stocks does not translate to property for a number of reasons. If you apply an economic principle incorrectly because it exists in another economic market you are not getting a realistic picture. You are getting a decidedly incorrect picture. People don't buy stock and live in it and don't have to pay to not have stock unlike property.

People were saying in the 90s that property couldn't go up much more. That isn't considered part of the boom years. While people like to ask how nobody saw it coming and say people were pointing it out they did so for well over 15 years. That isn't somebody accurately predicting a prices or the market.

There clearly isn't enough property to rent in Dublin so instead of asking where the money going to come from where is the housing going to come from? Limit supply and increase demand what happens?

Population in Dublin is going to increase over the next 20 years.

Sadly I suspect this will actually destroy parts of Dublin as people won't be able to afford the property as it stands. So as price might get restricted the property will become restricted. A 5 bed for €600k might be out of reach but a converted house into two 2 bed places for €350k each will happen. Prices rising in just a different way. All you have to do is look to any major city and that is what happens. It actually has already happened here with the Georgian houses. Where I live it has already started houses from the 50s split in two and not by LL but families. Matter of time before they get sold separately.

Villa05

handlemaster wrote: »

there are so few properties changing hands its hardly an avalanche just yet. But I cant help but notice private investor funds and the like have snapped up a lot of property over the last two years. These guys buy to make a profit and don't buy on the advise of what they see on boards.ie.

They also source their capital cheaper abroad (all that money printing needs a home), have highly efficient tax structures to minimise tax. The banks realise that lending to an Irish based person for a BTL would be madness and are now targeting foreigners

techdiver

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Population in Dublin is going to increase over the next 20 years.

We can't say that for sure. If the same mistakes of the past decade are repeated the next generation will be doomed to emigrate like the current crop of young adults.

At the moment the number of people aged 25-34 in Ireland is dropping, with a larger percentage of the ones leaving holding higher qualifications than the ones left behind. (http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Massive-brain-drain-due-to-emigration-from-Ireland-new-survey-shows-225484882.html)

These are the potential first time buyers of tomorrow. Added to the fact that the earnings potential of those left behind is decreased, due to little graduate opportunity, this will lead to less people in a position to afford property in the medium to long term.

Ray Palmer

techdiver wrote: »

We can't say that for sure. .

Well you can't really say anything for sure. It was the CSO figure used to work out the increase in population of Dublin.

Having grown up in the 80s I can tell you the mass emigration didn't stop the population increase. I'd like to see the figures of emigration compared because to me it seemed a lot more people left in the 80s and every single industry was depressed.

There are still jobs in Ireland and a lack of supply for them. The fact so many were in the construction industry and have left isn't a big deal. They would have left anyway they just stayed longer than they would have. So a spike in leaving is not surprise after years of inward immigration which was a massive change to the country.

All signs point to a increase in population but like everything it isn't a definite. A massive eruption in Yellowstone Park could throw America into meltdown and the world economy with it.

riclad

i think investors buy property,
expect to get 10 per cent rental return ,
They buy in areas where theres high rental demand.
There was a program on rte last week,
investors are buying hotels ,at less than the cost of construction.
Most of the non nationals seem to go to dublin .
ireland has a high birth rate compared with the uk,japan etc
BUT theres lots of young people emigrating .

stevedublin

Ray Palmer wrote: »

A massive eruption in Yellowstone Park could throw America into meltdown and the world economy with it.

This would probably cause an influx of refugees into the country.

and so increasing property prices! :pac:

techdiver

Ray Palmer wrote: »

There are still jobs in Ireland and a lack of supply for them.

I agree that certain areas have a shortage of skills, but the problem is that most employers want qualified people with many years experience. Graduates in IT are finding it much more difficult to find work compared to when I finished college. These are the people that are leaving. Also, many people who are leaving are people who are already in employment.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/educated-irish-leaving-for-new-life-abroad-1.1541741

Almost half of all emigrants left full-time jobs to emigrate, while one in eight worked part-time. Students, many of whom had just graduated, made up 15 per cent, while 23 per cent were unemployed.

Also:

Over 17 per cent of all emigrants had a background in construction

So more people from non construction backgrounds are leaving.

professore

If things pick up, a lot of them will come back. Just like they did in the sustainable part of the Celtic Tiger and beyond - i.e. 97 - 02.

techdiver

professore wrote: »

If things pick up, a lot of them will come back. Just like they did in the sustainable part of the Celtic Tiger and beyond - i.e. 97 - 02.

I don't think any part of the "Celtic Tiger" was sustainable. Increased FDI on that level will never return. For the most part, at least post 99 onwards, it was a myth fueled by cheap credit. If the emigrants see a "Celtic Tiger 2.0" they would be well advised to stay away or run the risk of getting badly burned again.

We must also remember that since this is Ireland we will inevitably repeat the same mistakes again within the next couple of decades.

Who will we blame the next time though?

Yellow121

I think if people keep borrowing money to pay for houses that are overpriced there could be trouble down the line. Don't shoot the messenger.

Ashbx

Even houses to rent have gone up extraordinarly!! I live in Dundrum and have lived in the same 3 bed detached house since 2010 and my rent is 1050 a month. My friend is looking at the moment and has just got a two bedroom bungalow cottage for 1,500....absolutely ridiculous! I am scared to move even if I wanted to!

Cuddlesworth

Ashbx wrote: »

Even houses to rent have gone up extraordinarly!! I live in Dundrum and have lived in the same 3 bed detached house since 2010 and my rent is 1050 a month. My friend is looking at the moment and has just got a two bedroom bungalow cottage for 1,500....absolutely ridiculous! I am scared to move even if I wanted to!

That was a good year for rent in high end housing, such as a three bed detached house in SCD.

Renting like housing, is being squeezed by a lack of supply.

riclad

SO more investors will buy property,
in areas where rents are rising.
Competing with people who want to settle down,make a family home.

Ray Palmer

techdiver wrote: »

So more people from non construction backgrounds are leaving.

Amazingly selective quoting there.

40% of those leaving jobs are doing so by pure choice.

40% of all those leaving said they would return.

I never said the majority were construction, I said they would have left anyway but stayed here as there was work. There is a good portion of standard migration out of Ireland. When that was disrupted you were always going to get a blow back later on where more people would leave than before.

I don't know how old you are but it felt much worse in the 80s where it seemed everybody left the country for a few years at least.

techdiver

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I don't know how old you are but it felt much worse in the 80s where it seemed everybody left the country for a few years at least.

I am in my thirties and all of my family and extended family stayed in Ireland during the 80's (parents, aunts, uncles, all working class btw). That's just my anecdotal evidence the same as your "feeling" that the 80's were worse.

Anyway, my original point was that most of the people leaving are in the 25-34 age group. This is the very age that people who tend to purchase their first home. On top of this, those that are left behind have fewer opportunities and this will not change for some time yet.

L1011

Last time I had the level of recruiters hounding me as I do now was 2006 - plenty of opportunities in certain sectors.

techdiver

MYOB wrote: »

Last time I had the level of recruiters hounding me as I do now was 2006 - plenty of opportunities in certain sectors.

Agreed, but those opportunities are not as readily available to graduates. So since most of these jobs will be filled by people just moving jobs as opposed to people coming off social welfare, it's a game of musical chairs. The difference being that many positions are being filled by people from outside the country.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/why-are-so-few-computer-science-graduates-getting-jobs-1113833-Oct2013/

Take the company I work for. The last 2 software development roles were filled from outside Ireland as there were no people/lack of experience available in Ireland.

So despite the fact that there was hiring going on, none of these positions were junior or graduate level. This has a knock on effect for career progression of current graduates who end up behind the curve.

It's not just confined to IT either. I have family members with degrees (business, science, etc), who are working in non-skilled retail positions, because once again there are no entry level positions available in their areas.