Live trade FTSE 100(Santa Rally)

arrowloopboy

Just bought the FTSE 100 @ 6633 with a Jan14 expiry .
The probability of this trade being profitable is between 80 and 90 %,this is due to the ''Santa Rally'' ,( see Simon Thompsons(IC) analysis in his book )that happens 4 years out of 5 in the FTSE index during December.
Target ,recent high of <6875,no s/l:D.
I've traded this in some shape or form for the past 3 years ,with 100% success.
Just thought i'd share( because there's a few clowns on here telling us what we should have bought 3/6/9 mts ago)
See ye in January.

Sonnenblumen

Good luck, when is the FTSE 100 list reviewed as RMG are due to be added which might give an added boost to the index?

arrowloopboy

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Good luck, when is the FTSE 100 list reviewed as RMG are due to be added which might give an added boost to the index?

Next quarterly review is on the 11th December,the quarterly review itself gives us another set up that has a high probability of winning.
The companys ejected out of the FTSE100 ,are sold off by funds that can only have FTSE100 listed companys in them,hence,alot of them become very good value,as their oversold ,for no good reason other than the index their listed in(and they no longer meet the criteria for the main index).
I don't trade it as I haven't had time to research it enough ,to add it to my list of set ups,but over time it dose deliver.

arrowloopboy

EDIT Saturday 30th December 6640 (+7 points) WOW.......:rolleyes::D:D

Tugboats

I usually play the Santa rally. Nice drop today. Might look at getting in towards end of the week

arrowloopboy

Tugboats wrote: »

I usually play the Santa rally. Nice drop today. Might look at getting in towards end of the week

yea , gorgeous :rolleyes::D.

Tugboats

arrowloopboy wrote: »

yea , gorgeous :rolleyes::D.

you still holding?

arrowloopboy

Tugboats wrote: »

you still holding?

Yea

dealhunter1985

nice movement today!

Helpneeded86

Any research papers out there on this?

arrowloopboy

Sunday 8thDEC FTSE100 @ 6580 or -53 points

The FTSE100 sank to 6490 earlier in the week,which was beginning to get a bit squeaky bum ,we'll see what happens next week,i think it'll be good:D.

Sonnenblumen

RMG (in @ <£5.40) +10% (£ 5.94) on the week and expected to be FTSE 100 next week, here's to more upside. Divis soon too.

Some brokers talking SP > £6.30 !:D

arrowloopboy

Helpneeded86 wrote: »

Any research papers out there on this?

Simon Thompson's book has all the stats on this and and a good few more statistically sound plays.
20 hard and fast rules to beat the stockmarket,i think is the name of it,its worth the tenner a thousand fold:D;).

Helpneeded86

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Simon Thompson's book has all the stats on this and and a good few more statistically sound plays.
20 hard and fast rules to beat the stockmarket,i think is the name of it,its worth the tenner a thousand fold:D;).

Is this essentially the January effect or how do they differ?

arrowloopboy

Helpneeded86 wrote: »

Is this essentially the January effect or how do they differ?

I've the flue,its not the January effect,get the book:eek::D

gordongekko

No sign of the rally this year. The economic data in America is positive which traders not feel may lead to tapering earlier than expected which seems to be leading to a sell of in stock. Looks like you were just a bit unlucky with your timing. Are you still holding?

arrowloopboy

gordongekko wrote: »

No sign of the rally this year. The economic data in America is positive which traders not feel may lead to tapering earlier than expected which seems to be leading to a sell of in stock. Looks like you were just a bit unlucky with your timing. Are you still holding?

The rally isn't officially meant to start till next week,I jumped the gun,because I liked the level I entered at ,given my target.
The profit taking in the dow/s&p hasn't helped either.
I'm holding till the weekend and i'll size up the situation then,but this isn't going to be a winner for ME this year,its about damage limitation:D for me now.
I'll keep ye posted.

dealhunter1985

arrowloopboy wrote: »

The rally isn't officially meant to start till next week,I jumped the gun,because I liked the level I entered at ,given my target.
The profit taking in the dow/s&p hasn't helped either.
I'm holding till the weekend and i'll size up the situation then,but this isn't going to be a winner for ME this year,its about damage limitation:D for me now.
I'll keep ye posted.

well the result of the fed meeting on Wednesday is seriously gonna move the markets.. in some way
QE4LIFE!

arrowloopboy

Edit ,Monday 16th FTSE 100 @ 6511.00, position -122 points
The Ftse added about 1% (70 points)today,there will be no tapering announced Wednesday by the fed and there will be a bull run of Pampolona proportions from Wednsday night till early January (I think/HOPE):D:D.
Might make a few bob on this trade yet ...........

dealhunter1985

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Edit ,Monday 16th FTSE 100 @ 6511.00, position -122 points
The Ftse added about 1% (70 points)today,there will be no tapering announced Wednesday by the fed and there will be a bull run of Pampolona proportions from Wednsday night till early January (I think/HOPE):D:D.
Might make a few bob on this trade yet ...........

Ho ho ho
How do you know the Fed isnt going to make a move tho?

arrowloopboy

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

Ho ho ho
How do you know the Fed isnt going to make a move tho?

Because its nearly Christmas,Bernanke is gone in a fortnight ,and they'll wait till there's the first every woman at the helm ,so everyone can blame her:D,and there's a good few guys(decent analysts) that had a hell of a lot more spent on their education than me,reckon there'll be no tapering till early 2014.

dealhunter1985

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Because its nearly Christmas,Bernanke is gone in a fortnight ,and they'll wait till there's the first every woman at the helm ,so everyone can blame her:D,and there's a good few guys(decent analysts) that had a hell of a lot more spent on their education than me,reckon there'll be no tapering till early 2014.

Fair enough. Lets hope your right :pac:

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Just bought the FTSE 100 @ 6633 with a Jan14 expiry .
The probability of this trade being profitable is between 80 and 90 %,this is due to the ''Santa Rally'' ,( see Simon Thompsons(IC) analysis in his book )that happens 4 years out of 5 in the FTSE index during December.
Target ,recent high of <6875,no s/l:D.
I've traded this in some shape or form for the past 3 years ,with 100% success.
Just thought i'd share( because there's a few clowns on here telling us what we should have bought 3/6/9 mts ago)
See ye in January.

A few observations/questions:

How far (Years) back does this 80/90% stat go?

Did the fact that you've had 3 out of 3 years not make you think this year would be less likely?

On the day you placed the trade, you can see how weak the ftse was technically. The strong fx was playing its part here.

I can't think off hand of any year where such an important monetary policy decision was made this late in the trading year. So your stats don't account for that.

It's options expiry on Friday morning which tends to be volatile. Also, there could/should be heavy buying or selling into the close at 4:30.

Did you analyse the time of taking your position? i.e. did the stats back up buying on the 26th of Nov?

What we saw last year, during the quiet period i.e. couple of days up to the end of the year, was dumping of positions. The market then gapped up in January. Looking at things now, that's probably where you'll be covered though tapering may hamper that.

dealhunter1985

Ixus,
Can I ask you to elaborate a little on how the ftse was technically 'weak'?
Trying to expand my knowledge in the area of technical analysis and it would help.. Thanks

ixus wrote: »

A few observations/questions:

How far (Years) back does this 80/90% stat go?

Did the fact that you've had 3 out of 3 years not make you think this year would be less likely?

On the day you placed the trade, you can see how weak the ftse was technically. The strong fx was playing its part here.

I can't think off hand of any year where such an important monetary policy decision was made this late in the trading year. So your stats don't account for that.

It's options expiry on Friday morning which tends to be volatile. Also, there could/should be heavy buying or selling into the close at 4:30.

Did you analyse the time of taking your position? i.e. did the stats back up buying on the 26th of Nov?

What we saw last year, during the quiet period i.e. couple of days up to the end of the year, was dumping of positions. The market then gapped up in January. Looking at things now, that's probably where you'll be covered though tapering may hamper that.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

A few observations/questions:

How far (Years) back does this 80/90% stat go?

Did the fact that you've had 3 out of 3 years not make you think this year would be less likely?

On the day you placed the trade, you can see how weak the ftse was technically. The strong fx was playing its part here.

I can't think off hand of any year where such an important monetary policy decision was made this late in the trading year. So your stats don't account for that.

It's options expiry on Friday morning which tends to be volatile. Also, there could/should be heavy buying or selling into the close at 4:30.

Did you analyse the time of taking your position? i.e. did the stats back up buying on the 26th of Nov?

What we saw last year, during the quiet period i.e. couple of days up to the end of the year, was dumping of positions. The market then gapped up in January. Looking at things now, that's probably where you'll be covered though tapering may hamper that.

Stat is for the past 25 years.
The fact I've traded it successfully for the past 3 yrs doesn't bodder me(but this lowers the 85% stat for remanding years)
I jumped the gun on the trade on the 26th,but I liked the level,and hindsight is great:eek:.
I think their'll be no tapering ,and a strong run into early January.
I trade mostly situations that are a lot more lightly than not of been winners,over time ,I win:D.

arrowloopboy

I think were looking good,just bought the DJA @ 16023,s/l 15990.

arrowloopboy

Ben has said ''moderate'' and modest in relation to tapering about 6 times in the last 5 minutes,i like it a lot.

gordongekko

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Ben has said ''moderate'' and modest in relation to tapering about 6 times in the last 5 minutes,i like it a lot.

markets are liking it Dow nas and s&p all up

anto77

This is the kind of reaction I would have expected if there was no change, not the reaction I expected for a taper. Interesting to see the effects on the bond market over the coming weeks...

gordongekko

anto77 wrote: »

This is the kind of reaction I would have expected if there was no change, not the reaction I expected for a taper. Interesting to see the effects on the bond market over the coming weeks...

its a bit mad really. Anytime upto now if tapering was mentioned stock markets fell. Now the actually taper and markets rise. I still remain bearish but with this market who knows.

ixus

I find it interesting that you make no comment on the BOE minutes and what Carney said.

gordongekko

ixus wrote: »

I find it interesting that you make no comment on the BOE minutes and what Carney said.

when America sneezes everyone else gets a cold

ixus

gordongekko wrote: »

when America sneezes everyone else gets a cold

That's just a flippant remark indicating a lack of understanding of market dynamics.

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Because its nearly Christmas,Bernanke is gone in a fortnight ,and they'll wait till there's the first every woman at the helm ,so everyone can blame her:D,and there's a good few guys(decent analysts) that had a hell of a lot more spent on their education than me,reckon there'll be no tapering till early 2014.

At one stage, you were 200 points offside yesterday. Even before the FOMC, you were 160 points offside on the back of BOE comments. You've been pretty much offside since you entered the position based upon weak analysis. Shocking risk management really. I wouldn't bother commenting normally but it had to be highlighted.

It's options & futures expiry tomorrow. I won't be surprised to see the Ftse expire at 6500 or there about.

Based upon monetary policy; we should see a buy Europe sell UK theme at start of next year.

dealhunter1985

Shocking moderation really. Is criticism all you have to contribute to the forum?

ixus wrote: »

That's just a flippant remark indicating a lack of understanding of market dynamics.



At one stage, you were 200 points offside yesterday. Even before the FOMC, you were 160 points offside on the back of BOE comments. You've been pretty much offside since you entered the position based upon weak analysis. Shocking risk management really. I wouldn't bother commenting normally but it had to be highlighted.

It's options & futures expiry tomorrow. I won't be surprised to see the Ftse expire at 6500 or there about.

Based upon monetary policy; we should see a buy Europe sell UK theme at start of next year.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

That's just a flippant remark indicating a lack of understanding of market dynamics.



At one stage, you were 200 points offside yesterday. Even before the FOMC, you were 160 points offside on the back of BOE comments. You've been pretty much offside since you entered the position based upon weak analysis. Shocking risk management really. I wouldn't bother commenting normally but it had to be highlighted.

It's options & futures expiry tomorrow. I won't be surprised to see the Ftse expire at 6500 or there about.

Based upon monetary policy; we should see a buy Europe sell UK theme at start of next year.

So,do you just analyse using 20/20 HD Hindsight,or are you getting involved in a trade, and putting it up here??

Did ya like the trade last night on the DJIA @ 16023,or did you miss that ?

I also appreciate your concerns for my risk management ,but don't,i'm a consistent Winner.

I know your a moderator,but if you have nothing constructive to add,maybe don't bodder adding anything.


Happy Christmas ,Arrow

ixus

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

Shocking moderation really. Is criticism all you have to contribute to the forum?

This has nothing to do with moderation. If you want to discuss my moderation take it to PM.

With respect to my post, I have highlighted that there has been poor risk management. Should I not highlight such a thing? Should I sit by and let the trade go uncontested because I spotted something? The information I have contributed in this post is actually constructive. I have highlighted the flaws in the OP's trade. If the OP, or you, don't want to look at how the trade could have been better managed, that's fine. Others might.

If you just want to hail someone who had balls to put on a trade, go ahead, that's your call.

dealhunter1985

ixus wrote: »

This has nothing to do with moderation. If you want to discuss my moderation take it to PM.

With respect to my post, I have highlighted that there has been poor risk management. Should I not highlight such a thing? Should I sit by and let the trade go uncontested because I spotted something? The information I have contributed in this post is actually constructive. I have highlighted the flaws in the OP's trade. If the OP, or you, don't want to look at how the trade could have been better managed, that's fine. Others might.

If you just want to hail someone who had balls to put on a trade, go ahead, that's your call.

Each to their own opinion but I see nothing constructive about your post.
I see statements with nothing behind them but a very critical tone.

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

So,do you just analyse using 20/20 HD Hindsight,or are you getting involved in a trade, and putting it up here??

I assume you're still in the trade. How is this hindsight? You're still offside since you put it on. Where do I think it will end up. Onside. Probably at 6700 by the end of Jan.

I could never comment on my trades. I'm a full time trader in a company. I make hundreds of trades a day.

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Did ya like the trade last night on the DJIA @ 16023,or did you miss that ?

No, I certainly did not. You said you took it at 19:29. Right before Bernanke's conference. Did you know what he was going to say? Like you knew there would be no tapering? There was massive risk in that trade.

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I also appreciate your concerns for my risk management ,but don't, i'm a consistent Winner.

Define consistent? Bit of a broad statement. Here's the problem with your risk. We don't know, nor do we need to know, the size you traded with (if live). If you were trading €1 per point, the risk sounds small. But a real trader should be managing their trade the same no matter what the size. €1 per point should be treated the same as €100 per point.

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I know your a moderator,but if you have nothing constructive to add,maybe don't bodder adding anything.

Personally, I think this has been very constructive. So, this time, I chose to bother so that it might open someone's mind. It doesn't have to be you. My target is the trade and it's management.

I've highlighted the following:
1. If it worked three years in a row, it was less likely to work this year given it's a 75/80% trade supposedly.

2. The FTSE was weak technically at the time.

3. The movements in FX affected the trade.

4. There was an extremely important monetary decision coming that put the trade at risk and would overule the stats.

5. Options & Futures expiry were coming down the road. Do you know where the big strikes are?

6. You took a trade based upon stats but didn't time the entry accordingly. You said so yourself.

7. I told you what happened at the end of last years trading and how I thought your trade might pan out.

8. I highlighted that you missed (or at least in your postings) a major event for your market namely the BOE minutes, what Carney said and the new unemployment rate. This all directly affects your trade

9. I highlighted that you have given no evidence of risk management or that you quantify risk. Apart from "I'm a consistent Winner". Sounds like Charlie Sheen stuff to me.

10. I gave you a snapshot of what I thought the next trade would be based upon current monetary policy. Shortly after I wrote that, the Eurostoxx was up 2%, the DAX 1.75% while the FTSE was up 1%. Can you figure why?


With all of the above in mind. Please tell me how I have not been constructive. Do you think that, with all of the information above, you could have made a better trade?

ixus

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

Each to their own opinion but I see nothing constructive about your post.
I see statements with nothing behind them but a very critical tone.

One might call that constructive criticism.

Mr.David

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I trade mostly situations that are a lot more lightly than not of been winners,over time ,I win:D.

Not necessarily, you might win more frequently than you lose but you must of course consider the magnitude of each to determine if you really win or not overall.

Bit of a non-event with the tapering, I think the interest rate assurances and the fact that the tapering is very gradual were better than mkt expectations.

gordongekko

ixus wrote: »

This has nothing to do with moderation. If you want to discuss my moderation take it to PM.

With respect to my post, I have highlighted that there has been poor risk management. Should I not highlight such a thing? Should I sit by and let the trade go uncontested because I spotted something? The information I have contributed in this post is actually constructive. I have highlighted the flaws in the OP's trade. If the OP, or you, don't want to look at how the trade could have been better managed, that's fine. Others might.

If you just want to hail someone who had balls to put on a trade, go ahead, that's your call.

you have not posted on this forum in a long long long time. Why bother now?

ixus

gordongekko wrote: »

you have not posted on this forum in a long long long time. Why bother now?

A second flippant comment. This time designed to antagonize a poster and moderator.

Boards.ie has no requirement with respect to how often a user must post or be active. Not that you are entitled to an answer but; I chose to post because I was interested in the discussion. Obvious really.

If you have an issue with any of the points I've made, feel free to take them apart. I'm more than willing to engage. Do you?

gordongekko

ixus wrote: »

A second flippant comment. This time designed to antagonize a poster and moderator.

Boards.ie has no requirement with respect to how often a user must post or be active. Not that you are entitled to an answer but; I chose to post because I was interested in the discussion. Obvious really.

If you have an issue with any of the points I've made, feel free to take them apart. I'm more than willing to engage. Do you?

your posts might have been helpful 3 weeks ago. Your aggressive manner will never be helpful.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

I assume you're still in the trade. How is this hindsight? You're still offside since you put it on. Where do I think it will end up. Onside. Probably at 6700 by the end of Jan.

I could never comment on my trades. I'm a full time trader in a company. I make hundreds of trades a day.



No, I certainly did not. You said you took it at 19:29. Right before Bernanke's conference. Did you know what he was going to say? Like you knew there would be no tapering? There was massive risk in that trade.



Define consistent? Bit of a broad statement. Here's the problem with your risk. We don't know, nor do we need to know, the size you traded with (if live). If you were trading €1 per point, the risk sounds small. But a real trader should be managing their trade the same no matter what the size. €1 per point should be treated the same as €100 per point.



Personally, I think this has been very constructive. So, this time, I chose to bother so that it might open someone's mind. It doesn't have to be you. My target is the trade and it's management.

I've highlighted the following:
1. If it worked three years in a row, it was less likely to work this year given it's a 75/80% trade supposedly.

2. The FTSE was weak technically at the time.

3. The movements in FX affected the trade.

4. There was an extremely important monetary decision coming that put the trade at risk and would overule the stats.

5. Options & Futures expiry were coming down the road. Do you know where the big strikes are?

6. You took a trade based upon stats but didn't time the entry accordingly. You said so yourself.

7. I told you what happened at the end of last years trading and how I thought your trade might pan out.

8. I highlighted that you missed (or at least in your postings) a major event for your market namely the BOE minutes, what Carney said and the new unemployment rate. This all directly affects your trade

9. I highlighted that you have given no evidence of risk management or that you quantify risk. Apart from "I'm a consistent Winner". Sounds like Charlie Sheen stuff to me.

10. I gave you a snapshot of what I thought the next trade would be based upon current monetary policy. Shortly after I wrote that, the Eurostoxx was up 2%, the DAX 1.75% while the FTSE was up 1%. Can you figure why?


With all of the above in mind. Please tell me how I have not been constructive. Do you think that, with all of the information above, you could have made a better trade?

Every trade I every made could have been better,i would have much preferred to get in @ 6390.00 last week,I';ve been trading a portfolio for 3 years, returning 65% ,58% and sitting on 72.3% this year as of now(that's the consistent bit I'm on about )
I appreciate the time you took to write all of the above ,given your trying to put on hundreds of trades a day (IF Live),but I don't have the time or the inclination to nit pick through all of it, I've youngsters to wash:p.
Thanks again for your insights,keep up the great work.

Arrow

ixus

gordongekko wrote: »

your posts might have been helpful 3 weeks ago. Your aggressive manner will never be helpful.

The trades still in play. All the points made are relevant albeit fomc was yesterday.

I am blunt when it comes to risk management. Have been ever since I started posting in I&M. People have could real money at stake here.

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Every trade I every made could have been better,i would have much preferred to get in @ 6390.00 last week,I';ve been trading a portfolio for 3 years, returning 65% ,58% and sitting on 72.3% this year as of now(that's the consistent bit I'm on about )
I appreciate the time you took to write all of the above ,given your trying to put on hundreds of trades a day (IF Live),but I don't have the time or the inclination to nit pick through all of it, I've youngsters to wash:p.
Thanks again for your insights,keep up the great work.

Arrow

Arrow, that's an impressive run. Well done.

The points I made are valid and worth considering for all trades. If you get the time to think about them.

yesterday was spent hanging around for fomc. Today is a non event. Options tomorrow then done for the year. Markets are quiet really.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

The trades still in play. All the points made are relevant albeit fomc was yesterday.

I am blunt when it comes to risk management. Have been ever since I started posting in I&M. People have could real money at stake here.

You should sign up to be moderator over on the gambling part of boards.ie,theres guys over there making trades on horses at 1/1 r/r in 10 horse races :eek::eek::eek::eek:,they really need help.:D NOW that's where you'll find the real Charlies:p.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

Arrow, that's an impressive run. Well done.

The points I made are valid and worth considering for all trades. If you get the time to think about them.

yesterday was spent hanging around for fomc. Today is a non event. Options tomorrow then done for the year. Markets are quiet really.

Joking aside ,I do appreciate your insights,your delivery is just letting you down slightly:D,i think i'll still get out on the right side of this trade,but it definatly hasn't gone to plan.

Happy Christmas,

Arrow

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I think were looking good,just bought the DJA @ 16023,s/l 15990.

S/L moved on the Dow trade to16050.00 trading this one free now ,might just let it run (currently sitting around 16190.00) so theres another WINNER:eek:.

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

S/L moved on the Dow trade to16050.00 trading this one free now ,might just let it run (currently sitting around 16190.00) so theres another WINNER:eek:.

Futures and options expiry today. Dow March sitting at 16138 as I type. I wouldn't expect too much movement on cash open as Emini (S&P) futures will settle around the big strike of 180000

FTSE futures for Dec expired at 6600 ( I thought it would be 6500). Rolled into March at current price of 6540.

arrowloopboy

EDIT

FTSE100 Jan @ 6609.00 ,trade @ -24 points

DowJones @ 16272.00 , trade @ + 238 points


The Ftse trade is slowly but surely creeping back for my entry point,after been 230 points offside at one stage early last week,should be in profit by the star of January.

The DJIA trade I took Wednsday night just before Bernanke spoke is flying,I'll also let this run a while,and see how it acts over Christmas on low volumes,but I'm going to use it to cover my Ftse trade if it starts heading south again.

I could just lock in a nice bit of profit now,but I think both trades should creep higher over the Christmas(this isn't based on days of research,i don't have time for that) its just a hunch .Anyone who has done days of research on it are more than welcome to add their opinion,in a cordial ,constructive manner :eek::D:D.