Hennessy Gold Cup, Saturday November 30th 2013

Jayo11780

Ok said I'd start a thread on this seeing as the field is almost complete at this stage with the weights adjusted after Tidal Bay's expected withdrawal..

A potentially high quality renewal of the race!

After studying the form/trends etc I have come up with the following shortlist:

Katenko 12/1 Being aimed ultimately at gold cup & even carrying 11st 11 will take serious beating from a stable in-form
Lord Windermere 10/1 has all the form necessary to win this race
Our Father 8/1 - fits all known trends and Pipe fancies this one big time

Super Duty & Theatre Guide may be the big-value bets of the race and could very possibly upset all the odds or at least run into a place.

kiers47

I flagged it up at the initial entry stage(well in fairness it was obvious to most) but I believe if Invictus shows up at 80% he will win this off his mark.
I couldn't be backing anything against him and the king stable is in decent form to suggest he will be ready to run a big race.
7/1 is about the price you'd want in this and I will almost definitely be having a bet.

the groutch

Loch Ba gets my e/w money, very progressive, has the advantage of a run already this season, and sneaks in at a plum 10st1

Slattsy

Invictus and Lord Windermere i both really like.
Will wait till the day but i'd be leaning towards Invictus atm.

the groutch

I'm waitng til the final decs before touching Invictus, already got stung on Dynaste for the PP (we know from his Betfair Chase run how far ahead of the handicapper he was)

longshotvalue

i cant get past Imperial Commander at all here at 16/1.. i'm unconvinced by the younger brigade here. Still that said i don't know how Katenko isn't favourite

bigcat13

-Invictus looks thrown in on a line threw Bobs Worth on his lto run, but allowing for the fact that Bos's Worth didn't run his race that day his mark only looks fair. With a 21 month lay-off to contend with his price is plenty short enough for me.
-Got my fingers burned from an erratic Pipe horse in the PP so will be staying clear of Our Father.
-Katenko has gone up 21lbs for two very impressive heavy ground wins but is unlikely to have similiar goning on Sat.
-Henderson's horses don't seem to be firing on all cylinders yet(drugs don't usually kick in till after Christmas) so i'll avoid Hadrians Approach.
-A mark of 151 looks plenty high enough for Rocky Creek, earned by winning small field soft ground novices.
-Ignoring Culloty's "twice the horse" nonsense talk, Lord Windmere looks to have the most going for him to me.

jimjamcos

Between Katenko, Invictus, Lord Windermere and Imperial Commander for me. Couldn't see past Katenko for the last ages but kind of worried now he'll most likely not get his ground and be top weight. Will wait until the day but looks like Lord Windermere's price will be gone by then. I see he's blue across the board. Was he put up by a big tipster of is it a result of Culloty's comments?

Gavin "shels"

Have a feeling Hadrian's Approach may avenge some of his losses last season come Saturday.

CheltenhamJ

Who will ride lord Windermere ? Presumably Davy not available. I like Rocky Creek and feel that Nicholls will have him right and with Ruby not riding he will be a more realistic price

UrbanSea

Our Father created a huge impression first time out over fences and is clearly one to catch fresh. 10/1 is plenty short though for a horse that isn't too reliable, if I could get a point or two bigger ill back him if not probably just a watching brief

Johner

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Who will ride lord Windermere ? Presumably Davy not available. I like Rocky Creek and feel that Nicholls will have him right and with Ruby not riding he will be a more realistic price

Robbie Mac is on him.

Dr. Bre

Cape tribulation at 25's could be tempting

Johner

Don't think he's good enough to carry a piano around and win.

bigcat13

jimjamcos wrote: »

Between Katenko, Invictus, Lord Windermere and Imperial Commander for me. Couldn't see past Katenko for the last ages but kind of worried now he'll most likely not get his ground and be top weight. Will wait until the day but looks like Lord Windermere's price will be gone by then. I see he's blue across the board. Was he put up by a big tipster of is it a result of Culloty's comments?

I wouldn't be bothered backing anyone now til the morning. All the bookies do in the last week is shorten horses up to get their name in the papers, Guarantee you they'l be betting 9/1 the field on the morning.

NaiveMelodies

This is tough, a real head wrecker, lots of angles to take.
The one angle I'm veering towards at the moment is that I'm really not sure there are any superstars in the lineup.

Highland Lodge is interesting. He's quite strong in the market at the moment, which surprised me when considering his connections(Lavelle/Aspell) and his first run this season came in a class 3 handicap in Wincanton. He also had a really poor end to last season, ran 3 shockers after quite a promising start.

However, his opener this season actually has a bit of substance to it, Standing Ovation the winner on the day, is up 23 pounds since, with Highland Lodge giving him almost 2 stone that day. He gave Coleman an awful time of it in the run-in, stumbling twice and just making a meal of things in general. Despite this he stayed on well to finish a clear second.
(Standing Ovation followed up with another win before running flat at Cheltenham, but that was his 5th start over 3 miles or further in just over a month...)

Taking his 2nd chase start this time last year, in Newbury, he finished 3 lengths behind Harry Topper, Benefficient and just ahead of Houblon Des Obleaux at level weights. All rated mid 150s now.
He followed up this performance with a 22 length win over Our Father at Cheltenham, taking 3 pounds from Our Father that day, and does the same on Saturday.

If he can stay mistake free for the beginning of the race and get into a nice rhythm, I'm certain he has a good chance.
I think he's weighted to do well, and while pace might be an issue, he'll most definitely get the trip with no real ground concerns.


Another positive is that Emma Lavelle has also had a flying start to the season, with 20 winners from 90 odd runners. While she's not known for her big wins, Eastern Meteor was very unlucky in the PP Gold Cup and might have come close had he not fallen.
I don't really have an opinon on Aspell as a jockey, but he gave the aforementioned Eastern Meteor a good ride LTO. He's never ridden Highland Lodge before, but he has had a good NH season to date.
Anyone care to shed some light on him??


Highland Lodge is BP 12/1 atm, but I'd be confident he'll be bigger closer to Saturday. Expecting a big gamble on Invictus.

hucklebuck

I am looking at Imperial Commander and Katenko. Invictus is tempting but wont touch if Coc Thornton is riding. I had a big fancy for Hadrians Approach, he has a handy weight and even though a sketchy jumper he looks to have bags of stamina and we know 90% of the field will be treading water at the 2nd last, the yard form is really putting me off.

NaiveMelodies

only1stevo wrote: »

This is tough, a real head wrecker, lots of angles to take.
The one angle I'm veering towards at the moment is that I'm really not sure there are any superstars in the lineup.

Highland Lodge is interesting.

For anyone who doesn't have the patience to read through my weak grammar.. .Gary Nutting has put Highland Lodge up this morning and outlines a few of the points I was trying to make in proper English.
http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=264965&lid=&raceid=&title=Ante-Post+Focus&ref=Tips+and+Analysis&nav=&sub=&day=Tue

ste2010

only1stevo wrote: »

This is tough, a real head wrecker, lots of angles to take.
The one angle I'm veering towards at the moment is that I'm really not sure there are any superstars in the lineup.

Highland Lodge is interesting. He's quite strong in the market at the moment, which surprised me when considering his connections(Lavelle/Aspell) and his first run this season came in a class 3 handicap in Wincanton. He also had a really poor end to last season, ran 3 shockers after quite a promising start.

However, his opener this season actually has a bit of substance to it, Standing Ovation the winner on the day, is up 23 pounds since, with Highland Lodge giving him almost 2 stone that day. He gave Coleman an awful time of it in the run-in, stumbling twice and just making a meal of things in general. Despite this he stayed on well to finish a clear second.
(Standing Ovation followed up with another win before running flat at Cheltenham, but that was his 5th start over 3 miles or further in just over a month...)

Taking his 2nd chase start this time last year, in Newbury, he finished 3 lengths behind Harry Topper, Benefficient and just ahead of Houblon Des Obleaux at level weights. All rated mid 150s now.
He followed up this performance with a 22 length win over Our Father at Cheltenham, taking 3 pounds from Our Father that day, and does the same on Saturday.

If he can stay mistake free for the beginning of the race and get into a nice rhythm, I'm certain he has a good chance.
I think he's weighted to do well, and while pace might be an issue, he'll most definitely get the trip with no real ground concerns.


Another positive is that Emma Lavelle has also had a flying start to the season, with 20 winners from 90 odd runners. While she's not known for her big wins, Eastern Meteor was very unlucky in the PP Gold Cup and might have come close had he not fallen.
I don't really have an opinon on Aspell as a jockey, but he gave the aforementioned Eastern Meteor a good ride LTO. He's never ridden Highland Lodge before, but he has had a good NH season to date.
Anyone care to shed some light on him??


Highland Lodge is BP 12/1 atm, but I'd be confident he'll be bigger closer to Saturday. Expecting a big gamble on Invictus.

I haven't looked at the race yet. But all of the above sounds very appealing to me and unless I find something with a similar profile ill probably back HL.
Hadrians approach is another that appeals. Another dour stayer but jumping must improve

sting60

Big ask for a very small stable to win this from a novice season but Lord Windermere looks a very progressive sort.He has always looked like a horse who needs a trip and his run in the RSA proved that where he ran the race of his life getting 9lbs for his impressive run.We see plenty of familiar names that have been around the block more often than not but this race is made for a young progressive type and 7yr olds have a tremendous record in the race.Lord Windermere 9/1 to win.

RichieLawlor

If Invictus has retained all his ability he will win this doing handstands off this mark

kiers47

bigcat13 wrote: »

-Invictus looks thrown in on a line threw Bobs Worth on his lto run, but allowing for the fact that Bos's Worth didn't run his race that day his mark only looks fair. With a 21 month lay-off to contend with his price is plenty short enough for me.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest bobs worth didnt run his race that day. The trip probably just out did him and he was staying on. He definitely wants 3 and a quarter on an undulating track these days.
Granted BW has definitely improved since that day i think it is unfair to Invictus to start making excuses for him that day.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If Invictus has retained all his ability he will win this doing handstands off this mark

But Richie they never come back

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

But Richie they never come back

Alas you are correct. With that in mind I have backed Lord Windermere

NaiveMelodies

kiers47 wrote: »

There is absolutely nothing to suggest bobs worth didnt run his race that day. The trip probably just out did him and he was staying on. He definitely wants 3 and a quarter on an undulating track these days.
Granted BW has definitely improved since that day i think it is unfair to Invictus to start making excuses for him that day.

The presence of Alfie Spinner in a close up 3rd that day is niggling me as another negative to take from that race and might suggest BW ran no sort of race.

Johner

From what I remember Bob's Worth hit about 5 fences and jumped very poor that day.

SRFC

Whose riding the king horse,if Thornton is on it lads throw your dockets away he'd fall off a rocking horse.

Johner

Yeah it's Thornton.

tomaussie

sting60 wrote: »

Big ask for a very small stable to win this from a novice season but Lord Windermere looks a very progressive sort.He has always looked like a horse who needs a trip and his run in the RSA proved that where he ran the race of his life getting 9lbs for his impressive run.We see plenty of familiar names that have been around the block more often than not but this race is made for a young progressive type and 7yr olds have a tremendous record in the race.Lord Windermere 9/1 to win.

Considering what you've said are ten year trends worth noting ?

Can anybody put up the trends ?

Jayo11780

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 30th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. Bobs Worth won the race last year en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold in March.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-8-23
7yo: 5-7-58
8yo: 1-3-30
9yo: 1-6-43
10yo: 0-3-15
11yo+: 0-1-6
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-15-81) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-13-96).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-10-47
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 3-18-130
Higher weights hold the call in this with 6 of the last 8 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.
Top Weight: F91P1313P2 (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places in last 7 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 153 or higher: 4-9-33
Horses rated 136 to 152: 6-13-116
Horses rated 126 to 135: 0-6-28
The last 8 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.
Horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 139+ on last completed start (7 posted RPR of 156+)
7 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases (3 exceptions finished in first 6 in a previous renewal)
8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
8 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a graded chase
6 of 10 winners were second season chasers
6 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 4 were having first chase start here)

Other Races
RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): F11P1 (3-0-5)
Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: F161P22P1 (3-2-9)
Better Prices on Betfair Novice Chase winner (Unioniste): P110 (2-0-4)
Weatherite Novices' Chase winner (Ackertac): 1P00 (1-0-4)
Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Highland Lodge): F3U2 (0-2-4)
Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): 2P (0-1-2)
Previous year's Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Houblon Des Obeaux): F4 (0-1-2)
Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Quentin Collonges): 672 (0-1-3)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Harry Topper): 350 (0-1-3)
Previous season's Rewards4Racing Novices' Chase winner (Our Father): 4PPP (0-1-4)
Reynoldstown Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): P7P2 (0-1-4)
Scottish National winner (Godsmejudge): 05 (0-0-2)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner (Same Difference): 06 (0-0-2)
Grimthorpe Chase winner (Quentin Collonges): 850 (0-0-3)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Terminal): PFP (0-0-3)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Goulanes): 68P (0-0-3)
Cotswold Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 807P (0-0-4)
4 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P1
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Feltham, finishing 253
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Better Prices on Betfair Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 3 fourth season chaser winners ran in RSA as novices, finishing 14

Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 8) raced in touch or with the leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-24) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out in 2008.
Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled the winner in 2005 & 2012 and the placed finisher in 2006 & 2010.
David Pipe (1-3-9) trained a winner and 3 placed finishers in past 6 years.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-12) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained 2nd & 3rd in 2011.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 8 of the last 10 winners.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 5.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Carrying 11-0+
- Officially rated 145 or higher

- Run in 3 to 6 chases (winning at least 50%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
- Previously won a graded chase
- Finished in the first 3 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 156+ on last completed chase start
- Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 5)
- Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)
- Tends to race prominently
- Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or P Hobbs
- Priced 10/1 or shorter

Jayo11780

Just stuck 25 e/w on Lord Windermere...
I'll have a saver on Katenko @ 12's

NaiveMelodies

ste2010 wrote: »

I haven't looked at the race yet. But all of the above sounds very appealing to me and unless I find something with a similar profile ill probably back HL.
Hadrians approach is another that appeals. Another dour stayer but jumping must improve

It is appealing really, but I suppose its all based on the opinion regarding lack of superstars. Need an improvement in Highland Lodges jumping too, but he definitely prefers it left handed. Good to see he ticks plenty of the boxes in that Trend post too.
Price is still very tight on betfair(13.0) and 12s BP in the shops which is good to see.

hucklebuck

bigcat13 wrote: »

-Invictus looks thrown in on a line threw Bobs Worth on his lto run, but allowing for the fact that Bos's Worth didn't run his race that day his mark only looks fair.

Poor auld Conti must have run **** too that day.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

Poor auld Conti must have run **** too that day.

Silviniaco Conti will never win another Grade 1 Chase, he's a dog who beat a regressive long run both time last season

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Silviniaco Conti will never win another Grade 1 Chase, he's a dog who beat a regressive long run both time last season

That is nuts, of course he will.

Harry Angstrom

Disappointing field for this. It really lacks a star or a potential star. Don't think last year's staying novices were up to much.

NaiveMelodies

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Disappointing field for this. It really lacks a star or a potential star. Don't think last year's staying novices were up to much.

Definitely a disappointing field, so much so that Emma Lavelle is gonna win it:D


On another note lads- what kind of a freak was Denman to win this off 174, and 3rd off 182!

jimjamcos

only1stevo wrote: »

Definitely a disappointing field, so much so that Emma Lavelle is gonna win it:D


On another note lads- what kind of a freak was Denman to win this off 174, and 3rd off 182!

A monster! Could have achieved even more but for the dodgy ticker!

NaiveMelodies

jimjamcos wrote: »

A monster! Could have achieved even more but for the dodgy ticker!

Watched his 09 win earlier...

His Jump at the last , HAHA ridiculous!

kiers47

How much of a good thing was he off 161 in 07. How in the name of god did he go off 5/1 is still beyond me??

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Disappointing field for this. It really lacks a star or a potential star. Don't think last year's staying novices were up to much.

True, i keep looking at it an thinking none of them could win it.. Only hope of seeing something , is if Katenko can win well or Imperial Commander gets within a stone of his best and wins. Gut is beginning to tell me something silly could happen like On His own outstaying them or something.

The first 6-7 in the betting have no interest at all for me.

tomaussie

Jayo11780 wrote: »

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 30th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. Bobs Worth won the race last year en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold in March.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Thanks for posting up the trends Jayo.

My recently deceased father was a big fan of "history repeating itself" so I'll be using trends over the next few months to try and pick big race winners.

I was born in Ireland and lived there and in the UK until I was 15 and then we moved here (oz) and I've been here for the last 25 years.

My Dad was a huge National Hunt fan so I'm trying to get back into it. The racing over here seems to be truly awful and I don't like flat racing anyway.

My memories of being a kid are all about watching the racing with my dad. The King George was always a favourite and I think the xmas buzz and family being around had a lot to do with that too.

I can vaguely remember horses like Bradbury Star (blue body red cap), Barton Bank (green with white stars) and of course Dessie. I also remember a horse that would run against these in yellow who always cruised like a Mo Fo but never found anything. Who was that ? Am I right in remembering these names and colours ? Toby Tobias was a favourite of mine but I only ever seemed to back him when he lost.

I also remember a huge punt my Dad had on a horse called Lumberjack that fell at Cheltenham if I remember correctly.

Anyway..... I've narrowed this down to 3 based on trends. Katenko, Lord Windermere and Rocky Creek.

The only trend I need help with is the fact that I need a horse that stays up with the pace / leaders throughout. Can anybody advise me which of the above 3 do that and which are 'come from behind' horses.

Cheers guys !

Malarkey121

Merry King - Ran a decent race at Ascot to chase home Houblon Des Obeaux when he should have been tracking the leaders not being held up at back! and the 14 lengths clear with Cannington Brook at Haydock over 3 mile when racing up with them is decent form.
A nice weight, supported and will love the trip and in my books laid out for this am I missing something?

BQQ

tomaussie wrote: »

Anyway..... I've narrowed this down to 3 based on trends. Katenko, Lord Windermere and Rocky Creek.

The only trend I need help with is the fact that I need a horse that stays up with the pace / leaders throughout. Can anybody advise me which of the above 3 do that and which are 'come from behind' horses.

Cheers guys !

I expect Katenko will be up with the pace. Tracked the leaders when winning his last 2 races. Same jockey, so very likely to do so again.

Lord Windermere is generally held up in midfeld.
However, the last time Robbie McNamara rode him, he tried to make all.
He didn't win though, so I doubt he'll try that again.
I expect he'll be settled in the middle of the pack like when he won at cheltenham.

Rocky Creek has usually been ridden handy by Ruby Walsh, but Daryl Jacob rides.
Jacob held him up the last 2 times he rode and he won both races, so I think he might do the same again.

yaboya1

I'm going for Highland Lodge (12/1) and Opening Batsman (33/1). Both eacy-way. Can't have Rocky Creek. Place lay in my opinion.

tomaussie

BQQ wrote: »

I expect Katenko will be up with the pace. Tracked the leaders when winning his last 2 races. Same jockey, so very likely to do so again.

Lord Windermere is generally held up in midfeld.
However, the last time Robbie McNamara rode him, he tried to make all.
He didn't win though, so I doubt he'll try that again.
I expect he'll be settled in the middle of the pack like when he won at cheltenham.

Rocky Creek has usually been ridden handy by Ruby Walsh, but Daryl Jacob rides.
Jacob held him up the last 2 times he rode and he won both races, so I think he might do the same again.

Thanks for the information.

I'm going for Katenko and I'm going to have a fairly large bet on it.

rossom

The bookie of Dickie Johnson on Cloudy Too is incredibly eye catching. Will be his first ride for Sue Smith since 2009 and 4th overall (1-3).

Always really liked Cloudy Too and think he has a really nice engine. He'll do for me at 20s.

CueCard7

Like Rocky Creek for this race.


Lord Windemere has'nt a sniff. Won weak RSa due to Boston Bob falling . Won't even place. Big place lay

ste2010

Mullins is mad...how Boston bob hasn't been sent over for this is beyond me..3m 2 right up his alley! Boston bob will be a gold cup horse this year IMO. I have an inkling something wasn't right with him last season.

All over highland lodge and hadrians Approach as security

CueCard7

ste2010 wrote: »

Mullins is mad...how Boston bob hasn't been sent over for this is beyond me..3m 2 right up his alley! Boston bob will be a gold cup horse this year IMO. I have an inkling something wasn't right with him last season.

All over highland lodge and hadrians Approach as security

Whats your main bet Ste

ste2010

CueCard7 wrote: »

Whats your main bet Ste

Highland lodge number 1 biggest bet dutched with hadrians approach