Betfair chase - Haydock on Saturday 23rd November

Jayo11780

Mouthwatering to say the least...
A case could be made for at least 6 of the 8 runners...

Who's gonna win folks?
9/4 on Bobs looks a steal if he turns up fully tuned up..
Long Run is 11/1 - Is that big price justifiable?
Will Dynaste get the trip? How 'bout Cue Card?
Is Tidal Bay too old to compete??

5/2 on Silviniaco Conti? He won this easily last year - Maybe he's the value?

Too many potential outcomes...

finbarrk

It's some field. The sponsors must be happy!
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/23-11-2013/haydock-park/racecard/592357/betfair-chase-registered-as-the-lancashire-chase-grade-1

maalummoja

Roi Du Mee is a very good eachway chance. Massive price I think

Johner

maalummoja wrote: »

Roi Du Mee is a very good eachway chance. Massive price I think

Outclassed in this field.

paddy no 11

Johner wrote: »

Outclassed in this field.

You'd think so but doesnt have any questions regarding ground, distance or fitness. Though would have preferred to see Toner D' sent over.

prettyboy81

I am going to do straight forecast Bob's Worth to beat Tidal Bay. It should be a gruelling test of stamina on testing ground and I can't see past the 2013 Gold Cup Champ with Tidal Bay running on to nail 2nd, IMO.

Bangor Billy

I wouldn't be making any assumptions about the ground until we have seen some horses on it tomorrow. The race is being run on the flat course which is a totally unknown quantity and we have only had a couple of showers here today (20 miles from the course) with no more rain forecast now.

Besides with Tellwright in charge the ground could literally be anything!

Slattsy

Cue Card won't finish the race.

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

Cue Card won't finish the race.

I dont think they will run him if it is heavy.

hucklebuck

Gringo180 wrote: »

I dont think they will run him if it is heavy.

I hope not.

Gringo180

hucklebuck wrote: »

I hope not.

Can only see him winning if its good/good-soft. Rewatched last years King George and he went out like a light then plugged on again so I dont think it was a stamina issue just more that he didnt like the bottomless ground. He murdered a few fences that day too so that maybe played a part why he faded alarmingly quick.

Gringo180

P.s Isnt it great to have the national hunt season back, much more interesting than the flat and handier to pick a winner

jimjamcos

Bobs Worth: Sets the standard. Unbeaten going left-handed and has a good record fto. People say he lacks pace but having beaten Rock on Ruby over shorter trip, he isn't slow. While he didn't travel brilliantly in the Gold Cup, it was an unbelievable staying performance to be pulling away at the line . If he gets a strong pace, nobody bar Tidal Bay will be staying on as strong as him. I think the likes of Silvianco Conti, Cue Card and Dynaste will have to have Bobs Worth beaten before it comes to a fight, if they're to have any chance of winning.

Silviniaco Conti: Still has a bit to prove IMO. Got a peach of a ride from Ruby in this race last year when allowed to dictate things from the front against a somewhat naive Waley-Cohen. No Ruby and likely front running opponents in Cue Card and Roi Du Mee makes his price too short for me. He was travelling well in the Gold Cup but beat little of note last year bar the exposed Long Run.

Cue Card: Really like him and think he'll get 3m in the right conditions. Don't think that will be Saturday though with going at the moment: Soft, Good to Soft in Places. He'll try stretch them but likely to be getting company upfront, he can't afford to make any jumping errors. Just can't picture him outstaying Bobs Worth in the likely conditions even if he gets an easy lead and his jumping holds up.

Dynaste: is a horrible price at 6/1 for what he's actually achieved. Struggling to think of a top horse he's beaten. Many people seem to be of the view that he ran in the wrong race at Cheltenham and that he proved he was a top 3m chaser at Aintree. On reflection, he beat little at Aintree and the one time he found himself in a battle he was beaten at Cheltenham. Connections seem unsure about where to place him which doesn't instill confidence either.

Tidal Bay: Likely to get outpaced, as usual, but along with Bobs Worth, he will be finishing the strongest. Ground will be in his favour.

Long Run: Takes a real leap of faith to back him but, believing connections excuses, I think he will outrun his price of 12/1. Bobs Worth, and Tidal Bay coming from behind, will stay at a greater pace, however.

Roi Du Mee: As game as they come but the race he won at Down Royal just fell apart. First Lieutenant woefully under-performed, Sizing Europe doesn't stay, Mount Benbulben fell when full of running and Price De Beauchene and kauto Stone are average. He'll give a good account of himself Saturday but shouldn't be good enough to win.


Bets: Bobs Worth (hope to get 5/2)
Tidal Bay each-way @ 10/1 with BetVictor

nobody told me

jimjamcos wrote: »

Bobs Worth: Sets the standard. Unbeaten going left-handed and has a good record fto. People say he lacks pace but having beaten Rock on Ruby in a Neptune, he isn't slow. While he didn't travel brilliantly in the Gold Cup, it was an unbelievable staying performance to be pulling away at the line . If he gets a strong pace, nobody bar Tidal Bay will be staying on as strong as him. I think the likes of Silvianco Conti, Cue Card and Dynaste will have to have Bobs Worth beaten before it comes to a fight, if they're to have any chance of winning.

Silviniaco Conti: Still has a bit to prove IMO. Got a peach of a ride from Ruby in this race last year when allowed to dictate things from the front against a somewhat naive Waley-Cohen. No Ruby and likely front running opponents in Cue Card and Roi Du Mee makes his price too short for me. He was travelling well in the Gold Cup but beat little of note last year bar the exposed Long Run.

Cue Card: Really like him and think he'll get 3m in the right conditions. Don't think that will be Saturday though with going at the moment: Soft, Good to Soft in Places. He'll try stretch them but likely to be getting company upfront, he can't afford to make any jumping errors. Just can't picture him outstaying Bobs Worth in the likely conditions even if he gets an easy lead and his jumping holds up.

Dynaste: is a horrible price at 6/1 for what he's actually achieved. Struggling to think of a top horse he's beaten. Many people seem to be of the view that he ran in the wrong race at Cheltenham and that he proved he was a top 3m chaser at Aintree. On reflection, he beat little at Aintree and the one time he found himself in a battle he was beaten at Cheltenham. Connections seem unsure about where to place him which doesn't instill confidence either.

Tidal Bay: Likely to get outpaced, as usual, but along with Bobs Worth, he will be finishing the strongest. Ground will be in his favour.

Long Run: Takes a real leap of faith to back him but, believing connections excuses, I think he will outrun his price of 12/1. Bobs Worth, and Tidal Bay coming from behind, will stay at a greater pace, however.

Roi Du Mee: As game as they come but the race he won at Down Royal just fell apart. First Lieutenant woefully under-performed, Sizing Europe doesn't stay, Mount Benbulben fell when full of running and Price De Beauchene and kauto Stone are average. He'll give a good account of himself Saturday but shouldn't be good enough to win.


Bets: Bobs Worth (hope to get 5/2)
Tidal Bay each-way @ 10/1 with BetVictor

Bobs worth won the 3m novice at chelt, rock on ruby wasn't 2nd either

Gringo180

nobody told me wrote: »

Bobs worth won the 3m novice at chelt, rock on ruby wasn't 2nd either

Pretty sure he beat ROR over 2 and a half miles so his point of him not been all that slow still stands.

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

Bobs worth won the 3m novice at chelt, rock on ruby wasn't 2nd either

Sorry, race was in Jan of that year. My bad

Pinesky

Johner wrote: »

Outclassed in this field.

Roi only has 5 lbs to find with Silvi and 12 to find with Bob's
The latter 2 will find it hard to run within 5-7 lbs of their best first time out.
Roi is a good value bet for me .

Dr. Bre

long run what a price for a horse whos won a gold cup and king george

sting60

Johner wrote: »

Outclassed in this field.

Yip.

sting60

jimjamcos wrote: »

Bobs Worth: Sets the standard. Unbeaten going left-handed and has a good record fto. People say he lacks pace but having beaten Rock on Ruby over shorter trip, he isn't slow. While he didn't travel brilliantly in the Gold Cup, it was an unbelievable staying performance to be pulling away at the line . If he gets a strong pace, nobody bar Tidal Bay will be staying on as strong as him. I think the likes of Silvianco Conti, Cue Card and Dynaste will have to have Bobs Worth beaten before it comes to a fight, if they're to have any chance of winning.

Silviniaco Conti: Still has a bit to prove IMO. Got a peach of a ride from Ruby in this race last year when allowed to dictate things from the front against a somewhat naive Waley-Cohen. No Ruby and likely front running opponents in Cue Card and Roi Du Mee makes his price too short for me. He was travelling well in the Gold Cup but beat little of note last year bar the exposed Long Run.

Cue Card: Really like him and think he'll get 3m in the right conditions. Don't think that will be Saturday though with going at the moment: Soft, Good to Soft in Places. He'll try stretch them but likely to be getting company upfront, he can't afford to make any jumping errors. Just can't picture him outstaying Bobs Worth in the likely conditions even if he gets an easy lead and his jumping holds up.

Dynaste: is a horrible price at 6/1 for what he's actually achieved. Struggling to think of a top horse he's beaten. Many people seem to be of the view that he ran in the wrong race at Cheltenham and that he proved he was a top 3m chaser at Aintree. On reflection, he beat little at Aintree and the one time he found himself in a battle he was beaten at Cheltenham. Connections seem unsure about where to place him which doesn't instill confidence either.

Tidal Bay: Likely to get outpaced, as usual, but along with Bobs Worth, he will be finishing the strongest. Ground will be in his favour.

Long Run: Takes a real leap of faith to back him but, believing connections excuses, I think he will outrun his price of 12/1. Bobs Worth, and Tidal Bay coming from behind, will stay at a greater pace, however.

Roi Du Mee: As game as they come but the race he won at Down Royal just fell apart. First Lieutenant woefully under-performed, Sizing Europe doesn't stay, Mount Benbulben fell when full of running and Price De Beauchene and kauto Stone are average. He'll give a good account of himself Saturday but shouldn't be good enough to win.


Bets: Bobs Worth (hope to get 5/2)
Tidal Bay each-way @ 10/1 with BetVictor

Well done great write up.People are missing a very serious point with this race.It will not be a tight track as before its a track 1f more on the wide outside.Front runners will not get away but I feel for the talented Cue Card as he been ****ed about big time imo.He shows all the signs of a speed horse and his mother has never thrown a stayer[if you call 3m staying].

NaiveMelodies

Bobs worth stays on to beat off Cue Card,a valiant 2nd, with Giant Bolster running into 3rd. Tidal Bay and Roi du mee distant 4th and 5th.

Dynaste pulled up, SC to fall/pull up. Long Run Non Runner.

There you have it.

ste2010

You want to make a fortune this weekend....well then start with putting a sh*t load of money on restless Harry at 33-1 with betvictor. This horse is at a ridiculous weight and he will relish the ground, trip and course..similar profile to before he won at Newbury last year..do I think it's a plot ...yes..do I think sat will be the day..it will be this sat or at Newbury again in 3 weeks. Ill be on both days

kiers47

only1stevo wrote: »

Bobs worth stays on to beat off Cue Card,a valiant 2nd, with Giant Bolster running into 3rd. Tidal Bay and Roi du mee distant 4th and 5th.

Dynaste pulled up, SC to fall/pull up. Long Run Non Runner.

There you have it.

I would be absolutely shocked if Dynaste was pulled up.
I think people are wrongfully writing him off that horse hasn't done 1 thing wrong in his chasing career apart from Cheltenham which I wouldn't exactly blame the horse for.

Anyway just my opinion I guess.

NaiveMelodies

kiers47 wrote: »

I would be absolutely shocked if Dynaste was pulled up.
I think people are wrongfully writing him off that horse hasn't done 1 thing wrong in his chasing career apart from Cheltenham which I wouldn't exactly blame the horse for.

Anyway just my opinion I guess.

Only a silly prediction by myself but I do think its gonna be tough aul race for a novice to step up to, seasonal debut too.

UrbanSea

ste2010 wrote: »

You want to make a fortune this weekend....well then start with putting a sh*t load of money on restless Harry at 33-1 with betvictor. This horse is at a ridiculous weight and he will relish the ground, trip and course..similar profile to before he won at Newbury last year..do I think it's a plot ...yes..do I think sat will be the day..it will be this sat or at Newbury again in 3 weeks. Ill be on both days

Caught my eye. Not as much as one in a class 6 at Lingfield on Saturday!

kiers47

only1stevo wrote: »

Only a silly prediction by myself but I do think its gonna be tough aul race for novice to step up to.

Oh I definitely agree but the horse has a lot of class and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if he did step up to win it.
Saying that I wouldn't be a backer at 7/1. It will be a great race and at the moment I will be happy enough to sit on be fence as regards a bet.
I would like to see either Dynaste or Tidal Bay take it.

droidman123

sting60 wrote: »

Well done great write up.People are missing a very serious point with this race.It will not be a tight track as before its a track 1f more on the wide outside.Front runners will not get away but I feel for the talented Cue Card as he been ****ed about big time imo.He shows all the signs of a speed horse and his mother has never thrown a stayer[if you call 3m staying].

Did cue cards oul wan not run in the english grand national??

jimjamcos

kiers47 wrote: »

I would be absolutely shocked if Dynaste was pulled up.
I think people are wrongfully writing him off that horse hasn't done 1 thing wrong in his chasing career apart from Cheltenham which I wouldn't exactly blame the horse for.

Anyway just my opinion I guess.

He may have done little wrong, bar Cheltenham, but he surely hasn't done enough to justify being the price he is in a race of Saturday's class. Given his style of running, if he's to beat proven stayers like Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay and Long Run, he'll have to be an exceptionally good horse. Just haven't seen enough to suggest that yet..

Huntley

sting60 wrote: »

People are missing a very serious point with this race.It will not be a tight track as before its a track 1f more on the wide outside.

The “wide outside” is in fact the inner hurdles/flat course. It is like a running track.

There is no plot with Restless Harry. The horse has shown all the signs of being done with racing.

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

Caught my eye. Not as much as one in a class 6 at Lingfield on Saturday!

Do share

kiers47

jimjamcos wrote: »

He may have done little wrong, bar Cheltenham, but he surely hasn't done enough to justify being the price he is in a race of Saturday's class. Given his style of running, if he's to beat proven stayers like Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay and Long Run, he'll have to be an exceptionally good horse. Just haven't seen enough to suggest that yet..

I think 7/1 is quite fair really if not a bit short but I think it is about right.
I think the bookies have got the market spot on for this with possibly the exception of Tidal Bay who I had as a 7/1 shot maybe with SC being pushed out a fraction to even the book.

NaiveMelodies

kiers47 wrote: »

Oh I definitely agree but the horse has a lot of class and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if he did step up to win it.
Saying that I wouldn't be a backer at 7/1. It will be a great race and at the moment I will be happy enough to sit on be fence as regards a bet.
I would like to see either Dynaste or Tidal Bay take it.

I'd be shocked and also thrilled that we have a massive superstar on our hands if he wins!!

Am beginning to form the opinion that Bobs Worth is the downright obvious one here, and too often I ignore the obvious one, think ill stick to my guns on sat.

Gringo180

Ill eat my hat if Dynaste wins this.

kiers47

only1stevo wrote: »

I'd be shocked and also thrilled that we have a massive superstar on our hands if he wins!!

To be honest for all that I am a massive fan of the horse I don't really give him much of a chance winning this with this field.
The reason that I have outlined above that 7/1 is fair is that no bookmaker is ever going to price him up any longer when there is the possibility that there still could be a lot of progression possible with the horse.
More hopeful than anything. But the horse will have his day and he will definitely have some big days out in the next few seasons I hope.

Anyway I don't want to turn this into a Dynaste thread. So I will leave it at that.

sting60

droidman123 wrote: »

Did cue cards oul wan not run in the english grand national??

Yes she did ,well spotted.She was a 2.4m Chaser at her best.They tried to see would she stay time /time again she was one paced up in trip.She has two other progeny who dont stay 3m by stouter bred stallions.

yaboya1

My tuppence worth:

The first chance we get to see some genuine Gold Cup contenders comes in this Saturday’s Betfair Chase. A top quality field of eight have been declared to face the starter in what looks an excellent renewal. We’ll have a look at the main protagonists below.


Bobs Worth (9/4) was a good winner of last season’s Gold Cup and makes his seasonal debut here. He’s never been beaten left handed and is a worthy favourite. However, although I wouldn’t lay him I’m not inclined to back him at the price for a number of reasons. He’s a horse who has used his superior stamina in the final stages of races to overcome his rivals, and it’s arguable that he may have been beaten on his last two starts over the Gold Cup trip if they had been over this distance. Around a tighter, flatter track here that could be significant. Another factor is the improvement of the Nicky Henderson string for a run. With these doubts in mind I think he’s one to swerve.

Silviniaco Conti (5/2) won this race last year and fell three out when seemingly still going well in the Gold Cup. He was probably over the top when he finished a close third to First Lieutenant at Aintree and can be excused that run. He normally goes well fresh and should be competitive here. However, his chance hasn’t been underestimated by the market and he did benefit from an excellent Ruby Walsh ride in a weaker race last year when holding off Long Run. For those reasons I’m inclined to pass him over too.

Dynaste (7/1) was a warm favourite for the RSA Chase at the festival before connections bottled it and ran in the Jewson where he ended up getting beaten anyway. Although he was a comprehensive winner of both his fencing starts over this sort of trip, they were far weaker races than this and leave him well short of the level required to win a contest of this standard. He possesses the lowest official rating in the field with a massive 21lbs to find with Bobs Worth, who’s top rated. It’s a big ask to expect that much improvement, especially since his jockey could be considered to be an even bigger handicap. However, he does have a previous victory at this track & trip over hurdles to his name from this card two years ago and conditions should suit him well. Could be dangerous but not for me.

Cue Card (7/1) has won two Grade 1’s from his last four races. His defeats in the meantime have been at Aintree behind Sprinter Sacre (a career best run) and at Exeter on his seasonal debut, when trying to concede a lot of weight in the Haldon Gold Cup. He normally goes very well fresh so I’m not sure how much he’ll improve for that run, even though connections are convinced he’s a much better horse going left handed. His only previous try at three miles was disappointing when a distant fifth in last season’s King George, although the track, going and tactics could be used as viable excuses and he may be worth another try. On the plus side he’s rated within 8lbs of Bobs Worth with race fitness on his side. If he’s let bowl along in front as he prefers to do, he could be a big player and 7/1 could look huge after the race.

Tidal Bay (10/1) is a bit of an enigma. It appeared originally as if he was going to skip this and have another go at next week’s Hennessy, but connections obviously feel he has a big shout here and have let him take his chance. He won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on his most recent chasing start and warmed up for this with a second consecutive victory in the John Smith’s Hurdle at Wetherby on Charlie Hall Day. He can’t be getting any quicker at twelve years of age though and in my opinion this trip is too short for him over fences, especially as he’s not the most accomplished of jumpers and may lose ground at a number of obstacles throughout the race. He’s sure to be staying on strongly at the finish but it will probably be too late.

Long Run (14/1) had never finished out of the first three until his most recent run at Wetherby which seemed too bad to be true. He finished a distant last of the five finishers that day and couldn’t be fancied whatsoever based on that performance. However, we’re talking about a Gold Cup & King George (x2) winner who’s been beaten on his seasonal debut for the past four seasons. He always improves considerably for his first run and although he was shocking last time out, I feel the market has overreacted and he must be backed at 14/1. He’s been second in this race for the past two years, so this is not a track that inconveniences him too much either. If he was trading at the head of the market I wouldn’t touch him, but he’s not and for that reason can be forgiven for the awful showing last month.

Roi De Mee (20/1) was a proven lower grade performer before he took his first Grade 1 at Down Royal last time out. I’m not sure how reliable that form is though, as it looked a weak Grade 1 especially when you take into the account the fall of Mount Benbulben and the stamina doubts of the aging Sizing Europe. He’s an admirably consistent performer who should run his usual game race but I wouldn’t expect that to be good enough in a field of this quality.

The Giant Bolster (20/1) has never won over three miles and has done nothing to deserve being considered for a race like this. Fortunately his usual partner is unavailable to take the ride here, meaning a better jockey has been booked which may result in an improved finishing position than normal. Still has no chance.


This looks like a mouth-watering contest and it’s really difficult to be confident about the result. On value grounds I’ve got to go for Long Run (14/1) at the prices and Cue Card (7/1) looks the one to have a saver on. I won’t be at all surprised if the top two in the betting fill those places in the race but they don’t offer any value at the current prices in my opinion.

ste2010

Surely if the ground cuts up Tidal Bay or Silvi are the ones to focus on. I can't see why bobs worth will run on Saturday if they avoided anything soft last season

kksaints

droidman123 wrote: »

Did cue cards oul wan not run in the english grand national??

She did, but she didnt get very far fell at the first. Long Run is a decent price for this if you have trust the excuse for his run in the Charlie hall.

Francie Barrett

I know it's a boring opinion, but I really can't see past Bobs Worth or Silviniaco Conti. I think they are the two proven 3m chasers and I think it's asking a lot for the two of them to have troubles on Saturday. The only thing that concerns me is that neither have run yet this season.

sting60

Much is said how good a race it is.Its not that it is hype big time if the two big guns turn up Henderson wins this there is no argument on all known form.SC is a serious contender but its a two horse race on form if fit.

Letyourselfgo

Tidal Bay for me. In great form and consistently so. In his 2nd to Bobs worth last year he was giving 6 pounds and in my opinion was closing towards the end (despite Ruby missing a beat imo towards the business end). Based on the last outing I can see Sam giving him a peach of a ride.

droidman123

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I know it's a boring opinion, but I really can't see past Bobs Worth or Silviniaco Conti. I think they are the two proven 3m chasers and I think it's asking a lot for the two of them to have troubles on Saturday. The only thing that concerns me is that neither have run yet this season.

not too sure about bw, but the fact that sc hasn't had a run shouldn't be a problem

Johner

Had a dream that Bobs Worth was a non runner, I backed Tiday Bay but Silvianco Cunti won easily.

Malarkey121

Why do people think soft ground will hinder Cue Card as much as any other horse in this event? he goes on soft.
The trip is the unknown and 7/1 is the price your backing its value in my books, what if he strips a lot fitter on this occasion jumps well and kicks on 5 out (he clattered a few on heavy in the King George that done his chances).

if its a really bad ground heavy like they have heavy in France then would it not hinder all over this course, distance and lineup at this time of the season?

Question

If its heavy name your top 3..
If its soft name your top 3..

Johner

Cue Card won't place. Bobs Worth, SC and Tidal Bay will be the front 3.

Malarkey121

It may all happen too fast for Tidal who wont get the jumps quick and he will finish but will be all too late so will be unplaced and the top 3 could well be Cue Card, Bobs Worth and Long Run!

Mossey Joe

Cue Card, Tidal Bay, Bobs Worth for me

longshotvalue

I have a feeling that Cue Card wont get up that straight in the ground. Im beginning to think Long Run may be the value as he should improve from his first run and should stay on at the end, probably not as good as the fav but still, possibly overpriced at 12/1.. This should be one of the best early season races for along time.

droidman123

Johner wrote: »

Had a dream that Bobs Worth was a non runner, I backed Tiday Bay but Silvianco Cunti won easily.

I hope your dream comes true johner

Bangor Billy

Just got in from Haydock. The ground is pretty much as described. The hurdles course is softer than the chase course and they were finishing quite tired. The chase course is genuine soft jumping ground. It will be a proper test but, with no rain forecast, it is unlikely to be the slog in the mud that some were predicting.

meath4sam

1 bobs worth 2 silvinaco conti 3 long rung.