Save and win BTTS system

lamoss

This system is based on a system I saw on punters lounge. The guy on there doing the system only bet on the English leagues ; No cup-ties, no internationals, or any foreign games. He only bet once a week on a Saturday. I think their is a bit of potential by betting on a broader range of games and other leagues. He,s got his fist lot of selections up twice so I think it,s worth a go.

The bet is a 4 fold BTTS accum. I will be doing this bet in my local betting shops with my odd loose change.

What we do is to pick 4 BTTS games. With our first bet we look to win € 20, so depending on the odds we will place between €2-€3 on our bet.
If the bet comes in we put 1/2 of the winnings in our bank (coffee jar) and bet the the other €10 on our next bet.
If the next bet comes in ( say @9/1 ) we put 1/2 in the jar ( €50) and bet the other € 50. We carry on like this until a loser then start again with € 2-3 stakes. As you can see,if you get the 1st two bets up you will have a large sum going forward onto the next bet........If you get that far it will be squeaky bum time !

If you only get the 1st accum up, you will have some money in the jar to pay for your next bets. As the starting stakes are low, if you have a bad run you wont go broke very soon.
This bet is for a bit of fun with potential for a big win :cool:

Lets give it ago!

Sweden
Belgium
Crewe :mad:
york
€ 3 BTTS accum , pays about €26.
IF a winner €10 onto next bet, € 16 into bank.

unlucky 7 out of 8 teams scored

dobman88

The other guy took the variance out of it a bit by only betting on Prem games. Once you start doing lower leagues and internationals it gets harder. They can be very unpredictable, especially the lower leagues.

lamoss

dobman88 wrote: »

The other guy took the variance out of it a bit by only betting on Prem games. Once you start doing lower leagues and internationals it gets harder. They can be very unpredictable, especially the lower leagues.

The other guy was only picking his selections from Betfreds goals galore coupon, so he did not get a full selection of games to choose from, some of them on their are hard to predict.

I use to presume that most games in the premier league would end in both teams scoring with plenty of goals, but it is not the case if you check over the results from the last few weeks you will see that about only half the games end up as a BTTS yes, If you look at all the English leagues you will see the same thing on average only half the games end up as BTTS yes.

The bookmakers use physcology on the punters to make belive that nearly every game is going to end in BTTS yes. If you look at odds checker this week at the BTTS section you will see that the bookies have marked up nearly every BTTS yes bet as the favorite to come in.
Premier league 7 games ,btts yes 5, btts no 1, 1 undecided
Championship 11 games btts yes 9, btts no1 , 1 undecided.
This is the same in all the leagues so I would not be doing all my selections from one division. I would pick ony 2 or 3 at most from a divsion and put them with a selection from an other division.

There could be a league somewhere where they dont score that many goals and once a goal is scored the scoring team shut up shop and park the bus in front of goal. The bookies might make this league the same as the English leagues and go big on BTTS yes, but more often than not BTTS No comes in more often. I must make a search on soccarway to see if I can find anything, as BTTS no usually pays better than BTTS yes.
If this is the case I could do a treble instead of a 4 fold for this bet .

dobman88

lamoss wrote: »

The other guy was only picking his selections from Betfreds goals galore coupon, so he did not get a full selection of games to choose from, some of them on their are hard to predict.

I use to presume that most games in the premier league would end in both teams scoring with plenty of goals, but it is not the case if you check over the results from the last few weeks you will see that about only half the games end up as a BTTS yes, If you look at all the English leagues you will see the same thing on average only half the games end up as BTTS yes.

The bookmakers use physcology on the punters to make belive that nearly every game is going to end in BTTS yes. If you look at odds checker this week at the BTTS section you will see that the bookies have marked up nearly every BTTS yes bet as the favorite to come in.
Premier league 7 games ,btts yes 5, btts no 1, 1 undecided
Championship 11 games btts yes 9, btts no1 , 1 undecided.
This is the same in all the leagues so I would not be doing all my selections from one division. I would pick ony 2 or 3 at most from a divsion and put them with a selection from an other division.

There could be a league somewhere where they dont score that many goals and once a goal is scored the scoring team shut up shop and park the bus in front of goal. The bookies might make this league the same as the English leagues and go big on BTTS yes, but more often than not BTTS No comes in more often. I must make a search on soccarway to see if I can find anything, as BTTS no usually pays better than BTTS yes.
If this is the case I could do a treble instead of a 4 fold for this bet .

You just proved my point. If you have a 50/50 chance on average by betting on just 1 league, Why would you include 4 leagues and give yourself a less than 15% chance of winning? More leagues=more variance. If you bet one league all year you COULD turn a profit, a small one but still profit. If you use all 4 leagues and internationals, you win 10% of the time. Never making a profit.

lamoss

Bournemouth
Birmingham
Rochdale
Cheltenham

€ 2.50 BTTS Acca, same rules as before .

only 2 out of 4 up .

We will have another go on Tuesday.

paulo6891

lamoss wrote: »

The bookmakers use physcology on the punters to make belive that nearly every game is going to end in BTTS yes.

That's stupid - no they don't. They just know how odds work whereas you don't.

lamoss

Would you care to enlighten us how the bookmakers set the odds for these games ? Oh wise one.

paulo6891

Both teams to score is a derivative market, it is not manually priced.

lamoss

paulo6891 wrote: »

Both teams to score is a derivative market, it is not manually priced.

Thanks for that, I thought these type of markets were done by odds compilers and adjusted manually.

lamoss

For tonight.

Port vale
Shrewsbury
Rochdale
Afc Wimbledon

€ 3 BTTS accum

lamoss

Only 2 up from the last bet, so we try again.

Huddersfield
Middlesbrough
Tranmere
Walsall

4 fold BTTS pays just over 8, so we have € 2.50 accum on this.

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Only 2 up from the last bet, so we try again.

Huddersfield
Middlesbrough
Tranmere
Walsall

4 fold BTTS pays just over 8, so we have € 2.50 accum on this.

Only 2 up again. I will have a double go on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, plenty of football to choose from.

paulo6891

dobman88 wrote: »

More leagues=more variance.

More leagues = less variance.

To the OP, out of curiosity, how do you pick your selections?

lamoss

paulo6891 wrote: »

More leagues = less variance.

To the OP, out of curiosity, how do you pick your selections?

I have been picking teams from the English leagues only, I have gone over the the results from the start of the season for each division to see how many each week end up as a BTTS yes so as to give me a guide to which division produces the most BTTS yes scores.

They all sort of average 50% over the season ,so I check current trends and results. The best one so far has been the championship which has been producing over the average on most weeks. The premiership has been producing more less than the average over the last few weeks. BTTS no,s have been the most common for a while. I check each match I choose to see if the teams involved are likely to score a few goals between them and are scoring in most games.

Their is no magic formula as a teams results can go from good to bad over a few games and as the season progresses team tactics will change to suit their status in the league. For example the championship at the moment has seen a lot of teams scoring against each other, but as the play-offs and relegation time comes around they will become more cautious and will try to preserve what goals they have scored and will become more defensive so more games could end up as BTTS NO.

lamoss

For tonight

Burnley
Ipswich
Sheff weds
Reading

€ 3 BTTS accum.

Only 2 up again !!

inforfun

What average odds are you looking for per line?
Think about this.... how many times do you hit 4 singles in a row, same bet from the same league on the same day. Because that is what you are asking for here.

You should not limit yourself to 1 to 5 leagues i think.
For example, look at a team like Evian TG in France. Ok, last 2 games they didnt hit the BTTS but once was because they had an early red card.
yet every time i took them, they were priced 1.8/1.83 for the BTTS

And there is more like that.

And use soccertstatstracker and let that do the calculating for you.

paulo6891

inforfun wrote: »

What average odds are you looking for per line?
Think about this.... how many times do you hit 4 singles in a row, same bet from the same league on the same day. Because that is what you are asking for here.
You should not limit yourself to 1 to 5 leagues i think.

That makes no sense at all if I am reading it correctly.

He has just as good a chance of clicking 4 singles in a row from the same league on the same day as he does having 4 singles each from a different league. (provided the odds are the same)

inforfun

paulo6891 wrote: »

That makes no sense at all if I am reading it correctly.

You are reading it wrong.

What i tried to say is that he is fishing in a small pond. He shouldnt restict himself to the English leagues. Sure the info is maybe easier to grab but same can be said for the bookies and it will reflect in your odds.

Unfortunately Evian is not playing the best match to compare odds this weekend, at home to PSG

But as said, they are usually 1.8/1.83 at home for BTTS. Against PSG they are over 2.1 for BTTS
Find me another team for BTTS in the english leagues that are that price after 7 of their 8 home matches actually did have BTTS @1.83

paulo6891

inforfun wrote: »

Find me another team for BTTS in the english leagues that are that price after 7 of their 8 home matches actually did have BTTS @1.83

I don't really need to because it is not statistically significant so there's no point. There's always some team that are going to go against the trend on a short term basis, but the law of large numbers says that as time goes on, this trend will cease to exist!

BTTS may have won in 7 of their last 8 games, but before that, BTTS won in 2 out of 6 pre season friendlies, and last season 10 out of 19 home games. So in the long run, ys 1.83 looks accurate to me.

If Utd play City 10 times and draw 5 times, does that make the draw 1/1 for their 11th game? If RVP scores in 2 out of his last 3 games, is he 1/2 to score in his next game? You probably shouldn't quote statistics if you don't fully understand them as you could end up leading others down the wrong path (and losing plenty of money in the process) - short term trends are useless as everything exhibits regression towards the mean after a while!

inforfun

paulo6891 wrote: »

I don't really need to because it is not statistically significant so there's no point. There's always some team that are going to go against the trend on a short term basis, but the law of large numbers says that as time goes on, this trend will cease to exist!

BTTS may have won in 7 of their last 8 games, but before that, BTTS won in 2 out of 6 pre season friendlies, and last season 10 out of 19 home games. So in the long run, ys 1.83 looks accurate to me.

If Utd play City 10 times and draw 5 times, does that make the draw 1/1 for their 11th game? If RVP scores in 2 out of his last 3 games, is he 1/2 to score in his next game? You probably shouldn't quote statistics if you don't fully understand them as you could end up leading others down the wrong path (and losing plenty of money in the process) - short term trends are useless as everything exhibits regression towards the mean after a while!

Of course there are many other factors playing.
Who are playing and who are the opponents.

Evian BTTS for this weekend is probably not a great bet since they play PSG.

All i am saying, again, same bet, comparable circumstances will probably give you better odds outside the english leagues.

lamoss

Thanks for the feedback ^^^^ .
I am a bit short on time today so I will give a reply later on.

Todays selections.
Going for a treble this time in the premiership.

Arsenal
Southampton
Stoke
BTTS Yes
€2.50 Treble

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Thanks for the feedback ^^^^ .
I am a bit short on time today so I will give a reply later on.

Todays selections.
Going for a treble this time in the premiership.

Arsenal
Southampton
Stoke
BTTS Yes
€2.50 Treble

No luck on that one.

lamoss

inforfun wrote: »

What average odds are you looking for per line?
Think about this.... how many times do you hit 4 singles in a row, same bet from the same league on the same day. Because that is what you are asking for here.

You should not limit yourself to 1 to 5 leagues i think.
For example, look at a team like Evian TG in France. Ok, last 2 games they didnt hit the BTTS but once was because they had an early red card.
yet every time i took them, they were priced 1.8/1.83 for the BTTS

And there is more like that.

And use soccertstatstracker and let that do the calculating for you.

The amount I try to win in the first bet is € 20, of which half will go onto the next bet and half will go into the bank. The details are all in the first post. The stake all depends on the odds available for the 4 fold BTTS. If the odds are very good I could just do a treble instead.

I will be selecting some teams from other leagues not just the English ones as I do a bit more research. I have had a look at the Bundesliga and the average there seems to favour BTTS NO more then yes, but it is very volatile. If I pick some teams and the odds are lower for the accum, then I will adjust the opening stakes up a little bit to get that first € 20 to get the bet rolling.
This bet is for a bit of fun and the opening stakes will stay low.

I first thought that this bet would be easy enough but as you get into the research and checking over past results, which you think would help, things always turn out to go the opposite to what you want.

If their was no money to be made in offering a BTTS yes/no market then the bookies would not offer it !

paulo6891

lamoss wrote: »

If their was no money to be made in offering a BTTS yes/no market then the bookies would not offer it !

Correct.

But there are edges here and there, it's just a case of finding them! Although in saying that, you need to learn how to price the markets yourself first!

lamoss

Going to do some Scottish teams today.

St Johnston
Hamilton
Clyde
Brechin

€ 3 BTTS Acca.

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Going to do some Scottish teams today.

St Johnston
Hamilton
Clyde
Brechin

€ 3 BTTS Acca.

Only one of these came in.

lamoss

Too busy to post bets for Saturday !

Did these on the fly , no research done just quick fancies.

Burton 4/6
Mansfield 4/6
Eiche v Villareal 8/11
Ossaura v Malaga 4/6

€ 3 BTTS Accum.
Usual conditions.

Only 2 up !

lamoss

Going against the grain with these selections; on paper these matches should be all BTTS NO, The teams involved either cant score, or win or lose to nil quiet often.

Tottenham
Crawley
Sevilla

€3.00 BTTS yes Treble

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Going against the grain with these selections; on paper these matches should be all BTTS NO, The teams involved either cant score, or win or lose to nil quiet often.

Tottenham
Crawley
Sevilla

€3.00 BTTS yes Treble

I don't think the god of football betting likes me, 1 winner , 1 game abandoned, 1 game with 2 players red carded

lamoss

Going to do some Bundesliga selections today. The Bundesliga is very volitile some weeks you get 7 teams BTTS yes, then the next week you might get only 2 teams BTTS YES. last week their was 6 BTTS yes ,so this week I am hoping for the majority will be BTTS NO,s.

Werder Bremen
Friburg
B.muchengladbach

€2.50 BTTS NO treble odds approx 9.25

Lets see how this one goes,s.

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Going to do some Bundesliga selections today. The Bundesliga is very volitile some weeks you get 7 teams BTTS yes, then the next week you might get only 2 teams BTTS YES. last week their was 6 BTTS yes ,so this week I am hoping for the majority will be BTTS NO,s.

Werder Bremen
Friburg
B.muchengladbach

€2.50 BTTS NO treble odds approx 9.25

Lets see how this one goes,s.

No luck on this one:mad: