Playoffs

spiralism

I think we're far enough into the season to start talking about playoffs now. AFC in particular is really coming into focus as with 5 weeks left we more than likely know 5 of the 6 teams. NFC is on the other hand a dogfight as usual.

Current picture is
AFC:
1. Denver
2. NE
3. Indianapolis
4. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City
6. NY Jets

NFC:
1. Seattle
2. New Orleans
3. Detroit
4. Philadelphia
5. Carolina
6. San Francisco

Were the season to end today on wildcard weekend Indy would host the Jets in a rematch of Manning's last game for the Colts while a matchup of teams without playoff wins in the last two decades (or rather, what would be at the time of the match: KC's last playoff win was in 1994) would be on the cards with Cincinnati hosting Kansas City. NE and Denver would occupy the top two spots, rendering this sunday's matchup rather important.

The NFC's top seed will be decided by the Seattle/NO tilt at the Clink in two weeks. Seattle now have a strong grasp of the NFC West with a 3 game lead over SF and only 6 to play, it would be hard to see them giving that up now. This game will be monumentally huge, as both sides are extremely difficult to beat in their own stadiums, Seattle to date havent lost a home game since 2011 and New Orleans havent lost a home game under Payton since 2010.

Basically all other spots outside the top 2 are up for grabs, with Detroit and chicago battling for the NFC North and the entire NFC East in contention for the division title. Carolina look a good bet for a wildcard but neither them or SF are sitting pretty with a resurgent Arizona, Chicago and Green Bay (should Rodgers return in time) all lurking about

Badabing

Bears v Packers at Soldier Field on last day could be decider.

Paully D

Loads of teams with 4-6 records, such as the Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Raiders and Titans still in with a shot for that second wildcard in the AFC. NFC teams must be wishing that we could just scrap the second AFC wildcard and give it to them :pac:

I seen a (somewhat pointless I know, but slightly interesting) stat today that said the team that had the best record through 11 weeks (this time the Seahawks) has failed to make the Super Bowl for the last three years.

Whose going to be the team that comes from nowhere to make a run? Last year it was the Redskins who won all of their last 7 games. Giants could well do it. There's been no better team to get hot at the right time over the last few years, and despite starting 0-6 they're now 4-6 and have divisional games against the Redskins and Cowboys plus a game against the Chargers in their next three.

Ultimately I think the Broncos piss the AFC, but I never saw the Ravens beating the Broncos or Patriots last year so who knows? That's the beauty of this game. NFC will be a lot closer to call but presuming the Seahawks get home advantage it is difficult to see them being stopped.

matthew8

I'd go for:

AFC:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Colts
5. Chiefs
6. Ravens

NFC:
1. Seahawks
2. Saints
3. Packers
4. Cowboys
5. 49ers
6. Lions

mikemac1

Ravens have a run of home games now, Jets, Steelers, Vikings. Then @Lions, Patriots, @Bengals

By week 17 the Bengals may have nothing to play for and so put out the second string.

Jets @ Ravens is a huge game for the AFC wild card!

mikemac1

Hope I'm not clogging up the thread, just to add to my last post

Taken from another forum, the schedule for other AFC teams scrapping for the playoffs:



DOLPHINS (5-5):
Sun, Nov 24 vs. Panthers 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 1 @ Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 @ Steelers 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 vs. Patriots 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 @ Bills 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 vs. Jets 1:00 PM (ET)

JETS (5-5):
Sun, Nov 24 @ Ravens 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 1 vs. Dolphins 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 vs. Raiders 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 @ Panthers 4:05 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 vs. Browns 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 @ Dolphins 1:00 PM (ET)

RAIDERS (4-6):
Sun, Nov 24 vs. Titans 4:05 PM (ET)
Thu, Nov 28 @ Cowboys 4:30 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 @ Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 vs. Chiefs 4:05 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 @ Chargers 4:25 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 vs. Broncos 4:25 PM (ET)

CHARGERS (4-6):
Sun, Nov 24 @ Chiefs 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 1 vs. Bengals 4:25 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 vs. Giants 4:25 PM (ET)
Thu, Dec 12 @ Broncos 8:25 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 vs. Raiders 4:25 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 vs. Chiefs 4:25 PM (ET)

TITANS (4-6):
Sun, Nov 24 @ Raiders 4:05 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 1 @ Colts 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 @ Broncos 4:05 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 vs. Cardinals 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 @ Jaguars 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 vs. Texans 1:00 PM (ET)

STEELERS (4-6):
Sun, Nov 24 @ Browns 1:00 PM (ET)
Thu, Nov 28 @ Ravens 8:30 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 vs. Dolphins 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 vs. Bengals 8:30 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 @ Packers 4:25 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 vs. Browns 1:00 PM (ET)

BROWNS (4-6):
Sun, Nov 24 vs. Steelers 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 1 vs. Jaguars 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 8 @ Patriots 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 15 vs. Bears 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 22 @ Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
Sun, Dec 29 @ Steelers 1:00 PM (ET)

Paully D

mikemac1 wrote: »

Ravens have a run of home games now, Jets, Steelers, Vikings. Then @Lions, Patriots, @Bengals

By week 17 the Bengals may have nothing to play for and so put out the second string.

Jets @ Ravens is a huge game for the AFC wild card!

If both the Ravens and Steelers win next week against the Jets and Browns respectively, we go into Thanksgiving night with a huge game on our hands at home to the Steelers in the race for that second wildcard spot

Such a shame we couldn't grab that win last night, but with three home games in a row there can be no more excuses. Jets, Steelers and Vikings all extremely beatable, especially on our turf.

SameOleJay

So much in the NFC depends on Rodgers' return date.

Realt Dearg Sec

SameOleJay wrote: »

So much in the NFC depends on Rodgers' return date.

Any chance he could come back for the lions on thanksgiving, then go away again?

JaMarcus Hustle

I want the ESPN Playoff Machine to be back

taidghbaby

In the AFC getting 3rd seed could be important! It could mean the difference between facing either the Chiefs/Broncos at home against facing the Jets/Dolphins/ravens/Titans etc!

davyjose

spiralism wrote: »

Current picture is
AFC:
1. Denver
2. Indianapolis
3. NE
4. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City
6. NY Jets

NFC:
1. Seattle
2. New Orleans
3. Detroit
4. Philadelphia
5. Carolina
6. San Francisco

FTFY:

Sorry, let me have this. We're not going to be 2nd seed at the end of the season.

Lionbacker

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Any chance he could come back for the lions on thanksgiving, then go away again?

Just like what Jay Cutler did last week:pac:

Read an article last week though that he has targeted getting back for that Thanksgiving match, so should be interesting to see whether he'll be fully healthy if is cleared to play.

nolllaig

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

I want the ESPN Playoff Machine to be back

It's up today
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

UnitedIrishman

Had a go to see how I fare out come week 17 - may have been a bit biased towards the Pack!

Alfred Borden

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Had a go to see how I fare out come week 17 - may have been a bit biased towards the Pack!

Had very similar to this but had Steelers making playoffs and @ NE.

D3PO

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Had a go to see how I fare out come week 17 - may have been a bit biased towards the Pack!

I have the same NFC picture only the Lions instead of Green Bay

For the AFC mines very different

1st Denver
2nd Patriots
[EMAIL="6@3"]6@3[/EMAIL] Cinci @ Colts
[EMAIL="5@4"]5@4[/EMAIL] Kansan @ Pittsburgh

BKWDR

Based on auto win% and then calling the tie games as i would see them.

I would rather the Pats play the Jets over the Bengals or Chiefs anyway!

BizzyC

AFC: Broncos (14-2), Patriots (13-3), Bengals (12-4), Colts (11-5), Chiefs (14-2), Jets (8-8)

NFC: Saints (14-2), Seahawks (14-2), Lions (12-4), Eagles (9-7), Bears (11-5), Panthers (10-6)


One point of loyalty was that I picked the Pats to win against Denver this week....
If they lose my AFC switches to: Broncos (15-1), Bengals (12-4), Patriots (12-4)

Red Crow

If you were betting now who would you put your money on to win the SB?

I'd have to say right now that the only team I'd be able to say would give a good account of themselves in the playoffs would be the Patriots. I think they have the best Coach-QB combination the league and that gives them the best shot to win. The injuries might be their downfall in the end but they have beaten the best NFC team in the Saints and the best AFC team in the Broncos. They're getting the job done. Without being spectacular before Sunday night they have been putting those wins on the board. Also Brady, who I thought started the season poorly by his standards, has being getting better and better as the weeks go on.

BizzyC

Patriots are the hot team in recent weeks, but I think the Saints are the most dangerous team at the moment.

Also the Broncos have been without their HC in recent weeks, when Fox is back in the driving seat we may see a boost leading into the playoffs.

Early in the season I was calling a Saints/Broncos SB.
But now I'd say that the Pats are definitely in with a chance for the AFC.

taidghbaby

Red Crow wrote: »

If you were betting now who would you put your money on to win the SB?

I'd have to say right now that the only team I'd be able to say would give a good account of themselves in the playoffs would be the Patriots. I think they have the best Coach-QB combination the league and that gives them the best shot to win. The injuries might be their downfall in the end but they have beaten the best NFC team in the Saints and the best AFC team in the Broncos. They're getting the job done. Without being spectacular before Sunday night they have been putting those wins on the board. Also Brady, who I thought started the season poorly by his standards, has being getting better and better as the weeks go on.

Seahawks are the best IMO! Best team in regular season rarely wins the super bowl though!

bruschi

As a Pats fan, I would obviously love to win the superbowl, but I just dont think we will do it this year. Far, far too many injuries, particularly on defence and the front line to withstand the pressure. Moreno ran for over 200 yards. He is hardly one of the most elite RBs either. Our offence is tarting to get into shape, but when it goes a bit pear shaped with them, I dont think the defence is strong enough to support them. to be honest, I think we are playing above ourselves and are very much ahead of where we really should be. And that is even taking into account 2 losses decided by very dodgy last second flags. The AFC will go through Denver, and I couldnt see us beating them there. I think that will be the AFC match up though, none of the other 2 divisions are throwing up a real contender.

I think the NFC wins this year. Some very strong teams there. the only problem is they could be battering the crap out of each other and be wrecked by playoffs.

BKWDR

BizzyC wrote: »

Patriots are the hot team in recent weeks,

In fairness the Pats have had a bad enough run the past couple weeks, injuries and coming off the back of two loses that were marginal calls

taidghbaby wrote: »

Seahawks are the best IMO! Best team in regular season rarely wins the super bowl though!

I said this a few weeks back, i think the hawks really are doing the business and it kinda just appears to be under the radar. They are 10-1 and i think their game against the Saints will really prove what kind of season they are going to have.

bruschi wrote: »

As a Pats fan, I would obviously love to win the superbowl, but I just dont think we will do it this year. Far, far too many injuries, particularly on defence and the front line to withstand the pressure.

I think the NFC wins this year. Some very strong teams there. the only problem is they could be battering the crap out of each other and be wrecked by playoffs.

Yeah i just think there is *too much* going on for the Pats to sneak this, if they do pull it off with everything that has gone on in the camp with injuries and rookies it would be against the odds and a real feather in the cap for Brady in Bellichekc.





Edit: Just checked paddy power for the over all odds, not surprising, Hawks are 3/1.

Would fancy putting a fiver on the patriots at this stage, looking at the Broncos run in, they seem to possibly have a tougher time of it too...

Red Crow

You can get the Pats at just over 8/1 at the moment and it's only going to shorten from here on in.

BKWDR

Red Crow wrote: »

You can get the Pats at just over 8/1 at the moment and it's only going to shorten from here on in.

What bookies?

Red Crow

BKWDR wrote: »

What bookies?

8.6/1 on Betdaq.

Or 9.6 for the decimal guys.

Paully D

Chargers in with a nice chance of taking that last AFC wildcard spot now. Many thought it would be only between the Ravens and Dolphins (myself included) as it was difficult to envision the Chargers winning in Mile High.

Chargers schedule - home to Raiders, Chiefs
Ravens schedule - away to Lions, home to Patriots, away to Bengals
Dolphins schedule - home to Patriots, away to Bills, home to Jets

San Diego will likely need to win out, but if they do they would need Ravens to finish 8-8 or worse (8-8 is what I think we will finish on) and Miami to finish 8-8 or worse.

The Ravens have the conference tiebreaker over the Chargers, and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins. The Dolphins have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers.

I think the Dolphins win two, Ravens one, and then even if the Chargers won two Miami would get in on the tiebreaker.

An interesting couple of weeks ahead.

taidghbaby

taidghbaby wrote: »

Seahawks are the best IMO! Best team in regular season rarely wins the super bowl though!

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramble/2013/scramble-losing-ways-winners

SantryRed

This is the first year I've looked at the play offs and am pretty confident the Seahawks will win it all. They've got it all in their favour. Home advantage throughout the play offs, Wilson has never lost at home, the Superbowl is even in NY this year! I'd be shocked if they lose it.

adrian522

They'll be favourites but they are setup for a fall I think. Half of their secondary is suspended and Harvin is still not fit.Wouldn't be surprised at all to see them get knocked off at home.

matthew8

If they get to the Super Bowl it's anyone's game of course (as it always has been, at least recently) but I must say it's hard to see who'll beat them in the NFC. Packers don't have the defense. 49ers don't have the offense. Saints can't play on the road. Philadelphia just don't seem good enough. But the Panthers, they could really do it. They've got the defense to stop the Seahawks (as they did earlier this season), they've got the offense that can provide the goods when required, the gutsy head coach, and 2 wins to finish the season gets them a first round bye. And they've won 9 of the last 10 including a win at Candlestick.

adrian522

I don't buy that the saints can't play on the road, I think they'll get themselves sorted out come playoff time and if they need to go on the road they will perform well. I know they were bad against Seattle last time but it would be a completely different game.

Seattle have been very good at times but they have looked vulnerable at times this season too, they were blessed to come away with victories against St. Louis and Tampa for example.

They are a very good team but they are far from unbeatable at home.

There favourites but they are not as good as the 16-0 pats where for example and they didn't win it

HigginsJ

adrian522 wrote: »

I don't buy that the saints can't play on the road, I think they'll get themselves sorted out come playoff time and if they need to go on the road they will perform well. i

.

The record at home vs away is stark. 7-0 at home 3-4 away. 33 points per game at home, 18 points per game on the road. 15 points per game allowed at home, 23 points per game allowed on the road.

matthew8

HigginsJ wrote: »

The record at home vs away is stark. 7-0 at home 3-4 away. 33 points per game at home, 18 points per game on the road. 15 points per game allowed at home, 23 points per game allowed on the road.

Brees' home passer rating:122.5
Brees' away passer rating: 86.4

CeltS_Kavo

SantryRed wrote: »

This is the first year I've looked at the play offs and am pretty confident the Seahawks will win it all. They've got it all in their favour. Home advantage throughout the play offs, Wilson has never lost at home, the Superbowl is even in NY this year! I'd be shocked if they lose it.

i hope so looking good for it we got to the SB in 2005 and but we have never won one ..go hawks

Running Balance

Is it possible for arizona to make the wildcard game if they came third in their division and had a better record than either the panthers/saints depending who wins Sunday?
I guess the Q is are wildcards only for second place teams??

davyjose

Running Balance wrote: »

Is it possible for arizona to make the wildcard game if they came third in their division and had a better record than either the panthers/saints depending who wins Sunday?
I guess the Q is are wildcards only for second place teams??

Nope. A 3rd placed team can make it. Happened a few years ago in the AFC South. Colts Jags and Titans all made it to the playoffs.

Morrisseeee

Who has Playoff coverage, please don't say $ky have it wrapped up ?!? nooooooo!

I agree with most posters here that the NFC has more quantity of quality, "eh what's that boss?" > I mean they have more teams that are at a certain quality than the AFC. Also, all of the best team are in the West, with the NFC West being a savage division.

The big Q is, and the SB will sort that out, who has the best quality team ?

Two dark horses for me, Ravens & Panthers.

/but from a personal perspective.........go on PFM, you can do it

Son Of A Vidic

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Who has Playoff coverage, please don't say $ky have it wrapped up ?!? nooooooo!

Yes Sky have it wrapped up and if you have regular season Gamepass, you'll need to purchase the playoff access pack.

adrian522

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Yes Sky have it wrapped up and if you have regular season Gamepass, you'll need to purchase the playoff access pack.

The playoffs will be blacked out on gamepass though.

matthew8

Wildcard Scenarios

NFC:
Cardinals take wildcard if:
Cardinals win at home to 49ers
AND
Saints lose at home to Buccaneers

Saints take wildcard if:
Saints win at home to Buccaneers AND/OR 49ers win at to Cardinals.

49ers take wildcard if:
49ers beat Cardinals at home AND Seahawks beat Rams at home (if this step does not happen they win the division)
OR
49ers and Seahawks both lose.


Seahawks take wildcard if:
Seattle loses at home to Rams
AND
49ers win away to Cardinals

AFC:
Ravens take wildcard if:
Ravens win at Bengals
AND
Dolphins lose at home to Jets AND/OR Chargers lose at home to Chiefs

OR

Ravens lose at Bengals
AND
Dolphins lose at home to Jets AND Chargers lose at home to Chiefs AND Steelers lose at home to Browns

Steelers take wildcard if:
Steelers win at home to Browns
AND
Ravens lose at Bengals AND Dolphins lose at home to Jets AND Chargers lose at home to Chiefs

Chargers take wildcard if:
Chargers win at home to Chiefs
AND
Ravens lose at Bengals AND Dolphins lose at home to Jets

Dolphins take wildcard if:
Dolphins win at home to Jets
AND
Ravens lose at Bengals OR Ravens win at Bengals AND Chargers win at home to Chiefs

Think I have it right, if anyone thinks I've got it wrong go and plug your scenario into the playoff machine, essential at this time of year. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Son Of A Vidic

adrian522 wrote: »

The playoffs will be blacked out on gamepass though.

Regular season GP won't give you access, that's why I said earlier that you will to purchase the playoff access from from GP.

Son Of A Vidic

matthew8 wrote: »

Matthew8's big long mind boggling playoff scenario post

Matthew fair play for that playoff picture post.

Paully D

Thanks Matthew, that's very helpful.

My money would be on the Dolphins for the AFC wildcard spot then. Most likely scenario is they beat New York at home and we lose in Cincinnati.

adrian522

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Regular season GP won't give you access, that's why I said earlier that you will to purchase the playoff access from from GP.

The playoff games are blacked out for 24 hours in UK and Ireland. I don't think there is even an option for the playoff product in Ireland anymore.

adrian522

Matthew, 49ers still have a shot at the division if Seattle lose again by the way.

Son Of A Vidic

adrian522 wrote: »

The playoff games are blacked out for 24 hours in UK and Ireland. I don't think there is even an option for the playoff product in Ireland anymore.

I didn't realise that. But couldn't someone purchase the pack and VPN their way around it?

adrian522

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

I didn't realise that. But couldn't someone purchase the pack and VPN their way around it?

Yeah you can, you get season plus which gives access until end of July. Great value as you get nfl network included.

Son Of A Vidic

adrian522 wrote: »

Yeah you can, you get season plus which gives access until end of July. Great value as you get nfl network included.

I just have the regular season pack on GP. I rang Sky last week to complain about a couple of bad channel receptions. Ended up talking to a customer service agent who was a mad Pats fans. Seriously, I couldn't have scripted it better. He ended up giving me Sky Sports for free for 1 month and another 2 months at half price. That will cover the playoffs nicely and then I'll be getting them out.