Sunday

UrbanSea

Anyone else think Sire de Grugy looks a lump job at 5/6

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

Anyone else think Sire de Grugy looks a lump job at 5/6

Completely..I also think sea lord is a lump on job. He will be one of the supreme fav's after tomorrow..

Sea lord
Sure grugy and dodging bullets treble

UrbanSea

Was going to take on Sea Lord with The Liquidator and Defy Logic treble works out around 8/1

kiers47

Ya was thinking that myself. I kind of like raya star to at 13/8 looked a solid run the last day even if slightly fortunate.

SRFC

Rename this thread Willie Mullins benefit sunday thread :pac:


Real Steel is a horse im looking forward to in the maiden hurdle at Cork,and Dodging Bullets looks a good thing in Cheltenham owners running him in this instead of taquin de seuil after Nicholls told them this would win tomorrow,wasnt impressed with raya star last time,will post rest of my fancies later as I do the cards.

kiers47

SRFC wrote: »

Rename this thread Willie Mullins benefit sunday thread :pac:


Real Steel is a horse im looking forward to in the maiden hurdle at Cork,and Balder Success looks a good thing in Cheltenham owners running him in this instead of taquin de seuil after Nicholls told them this would win tomorrow,wasnt impressed with raya star last time,will post rest of my fancies later as I do the cards.

Presume you mean dodging bullets.?

NaiveMelodies

Farcical line-up in the Morgiana, really really dissapointing.

SRFC

kiers47 wrote: »

Presume you mean dodging bullets.?

My apoligies yes dodging bullets,dont know how true that story is presume it was in the papers my mate just rang me and said its his nap for that reason.

Micks26

I'd have Sire De Grugy as anything but a lump job.

Special Tiara is a very good horse and I'd much rather play him without the fav.

UrbanSea

What is it you don't like about him Mick? Not sure why he ran so poorly at Aintree but winning a handicap off a mark of 161 in the manner he did screams of a very nice horse

SRFC

I think Sire De Grugy should be winning that but with jamie moore on I wont be having a bet


Oiseau de nuit he has met before and destroyed of level weights,gives him 6 tomorrow cant see him getting near the fav

Special Tiara beat him in aintree definite chance what was SDG excuse that day?

His Excellency PIG enough said

Kid Cassidy need the run probably out to be handicapped for the festival again

Mad Moose Mule

Tattiano not good enough simply.

ste2010

Could L'unique be forgiven for her last run

Micks26

It's not that I don't like the horse, but I just don't think he's a lump job.

Special Tiara beat him by 25 lengths at Aintree and gets 5 pounds off him tomorrow. You can forget Special Tiara's run last time out at Naas. He jumped a shadow at the first fence and gave Bryan Cooper absolutely no chance.

You say you don't know why he ran so poor at Aintree. My opinion is they went quick that day, v v v v quick and they simply took him off his feet. His jumping was put to the test and he crumbled.

I wouldn't pay any attention to SDG's win in the Celebration Chase last year. He was beating absolute has beens. Just look at how both Finians Rainbow and Wishful Thinking ran today. It was a result which turned SDG into a bit of a hype horse and I genuinely can't see why??

Micks26

You're probably best off not listening to me though. 3 bets today, 2 seconds and a third , so likeliehood is anything I fancy tomorrow will be placed rather than win haha

kiers47

SRFC wrote: »

My apoligies yes dodging bullets,dont know how true that story is presume it was in the papers my mate just rang me and said its his nap for that reason.

Ya a strange one. Was actually gonna make raya star my NAP tbh. DB is a quirky little horse. He made a few sloppy errors last time out( all be it he jumped the last 3 brilliantly when the pressure was on).
The opposite could be said about Raya Star he looke very professional in uttoxeter and his jumping won him the race that day.

I also don't believe nicholls horses are fully wound up. Yes he is having winners but there have been some fancied horses of his beaten out of sight on the last couple of weeks.

That and Alan King is firing on all cylinders looks to have some real nice horses in the yard this year.

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

It's not that I don't like the horse, but I just don't think he's a lump job.

Special Tiara beat him by 25 lengths at Aintree and gets 5 pounds off him tomorrow. You can forget Special Tiara's run last time out at Naas. He jumped a shadow at the first fence and gave Bryan Cooper absolutely no chance.

You say you don't know why he ran so poor at Aintree. My opinion is they went quick that day, v v v v quick and they simply took him off his feet. His jumping was put to the test and he crumbled.

I wouldn't pay any attention to SDG's win in the Celebration Chase last year. He was beating absolute has beens. Just look at how both Finians Rainbow and Wishful Thinking ran today. It was a result which turned SDG into a bit of a hype horse and I genuinely can't see why??

In fairness SDG absolutely went through the last fence and was trotted over the line so I would think he would have been beaten by circa 10lenghts. He also made an absolute howler of the 1st fence in the straight on the first circuit and was novicey at the cross fence as well as a couple of others which definitely was his undoing. That run can definitely be excused I think. I also have a feeling the ground might have been a tad to quick for him that day to.

Micks26

SDG's jumping went to pieces because Overturn and Special Tiara went so quick. They really did go quick that day. Only difference is Special Tiara's jumping stood up whereas SDG's went to pieces.

Just to add SDG was well and truly beat in 4th when making that mistake at the last. He was running up and down on the spot and was dead on his feet.

End of the day Special Tiara is the Grade One winner and yet he gets 5 pounds of SDG tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Had a free 20 euro bet, threw Defy Logic, SDG and The Liquidator in it.

Micks26

End of the day I'd just much much much rather be backing Special Tiara at 7/4 to place rather than back SDG to win at 5/6.

If tomorrow's race was on a flat track I'd absolutely be punting Special Tiara to win outright.

SRFC

The money trying to back faugheen already at 4/11 can see this going off 1/5,will play the distances myself.

Micks26

SRFC wrote: »

The money trying to back faugheen already at 4/11 can see this going off 1/5,will play the distances myself.

Going to be exciting to see him. I'd much rather be backing him antepost at 16/1 for the Neptune than 1/5 tomorrow.

ste2010

Mad moose could be a risk attached ew way price to be backing on

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

SDG's jumping went to pieces because Overturn and Special Tiara went so quick. They really did go quick that day. Only difference is Special Tiara's jumping stood up whereas SDG's went to pieces.

Just to add SDG was well and truly beat in 4th when making that mistake at the last. He was running up and down on the spot and was dead on his feet.

End of the day Special Tiara is the Grade One winner and yet he gets 5 pounds of SDG tomorrow.

Yes you are right. He was well beat alright. I just think it is false to asses the horse on that 1 bit of form when clearly there are excuses. Anyway we shall see tomorrow. Just 1 more question? do you really believe special tiara is capable of running to circa 160ish because he will most likely need to to win this tomorrow?

Micks26

kiers47 wrote: »

Yes you are right. He was well beat alright. I just think it is false to asses the horse on that 1 bit of form when clearly there are excuses. Anyway we shall see tomorrow. Just 1 more question? do you really believe special tiara is capable of running to circa 160ish because he will most likely need to to win this tomorrow?

Ok I'm not assessing him purely on Aintree. He's odds on here because of what he did at Sandown and I wouldn't rate that Sandown form as being anything above average.

Do I think Special Tiara is capable of running up to 160, yes I do, but he won't need to win for me to collect tomorrow as my point is I'd much rather be backing him to place (first 2) at 7/4 rather than back the odds on fav to win at 5/6.

I think Special Tiara would absolutely beat SDG on a flat track, but at Cheltenham I'm not so sure, but definitely feel there's more value in him to place at 7/4 than backing SDG at 5/6.

I think there's lots of scope in Special Tiara, he was a 6yr old novice last year running against horses at least a year older than him, so I certainly think he can improve.

jimjamcos

Don't really see a standout value bet tomorrow (was going to back Court Minstral but will leave it I think). Want to watch all the big Irish horses in action though (don't know why RTE aren't showing it!). Megatron accumulator it is!

Cheltenham

The Liquidator 11/8 - Proven at Cheltenham.
Sire Dd Grugy 8/11 - Should beat handicappers.

Cork

Upsie - Looks a good'n.

Punchestown

Faugheen - Could be a monster.
Defu Logic 10/11 An Arkle bet for me. Massive engine.
Don Cossack 1/1 - Dodgy enough pick but Russell keeps banging on about how excited he is about him. Never really liked him but jock has swayed me.
Hurricane Fly 1/7 - wins.

10r sevenfold will probably return round 300 bucks.

One, two or three are likely to lose so I'll have a 'saver' fourfold on Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Sire Du Grugy and Defy Logic around the 4/1 mark hopefully. Easy! :P

RichieLawlor

Mad Moose is an absolute camel

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

Ok I'm not assessing him purely on Aintree. He's odds on here because of what he did at Sandown and I wouldn't rate that Sandown form as being anything above average.

Do I think Special Tiara is capable of running up to 160, yes I do, but he won't need to win for me to collect tomorrow as my point is I'd much rather be backing him to place (first 2) at 7/4 rather than back the odds on fav to win at 5/6.

I think Special Tiara would absolutely beat SDG on a flat track, but at Cheltenham I'm not so sure, but definitely feel there's more value in him to place at 7/4 than backing SDG at 5/6.

Fair enough. FYI special tiara is 3.4 for a place on betfair only for 20quid at the mo though. So your probably better off backing there even with the juice.

Micks26

jimjamcos wrote: »

Don't really see a standout value bet tomorrow (was going to back Court Minstral but will leave it I think). Want to watch all the big Irish horses in action though (don't now why RTE aren't showing it!). Megatron accumulator it is!

Cheltenham

The Liquidator 11/8 - Proven at Cheltenham.
Sire Dd Grugy 8/11 - Should beat handicappers.

Cork

Upsie - Looks a good'n.

Punchestown

Faugheen - Could be a monster.
Defu Logic 10/11 An Arkle bet for me. Massive engine.
Don Cossack 1/1 - Dodgy enough pick but Russell keeps banging on about how excited he is about him. Never really liked him but jock has swayed me.
Hurricane Fly 1/7 - wins.

10r sevenfold will probably return round 300 bucks.

One, two or three are likely to lose so I'll have a 'saver' fourfold on Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Sire Du Grugy and Defy Logic. Easy! :P

Special Tiara a handicapper??? Really?

Micks26

kiers47 wrote: »

Fair enough. FYI special tiara is 3.4 for a place on betfair only for 20quid at the mo though. So your probably better off backing there even with the juice.

I'd be thrilled with that price if it were so for a decent chunk.

UrbanSea

Micks you are yet to mention his run at Chepstow the last day. A demolition job off a mark of 161

SRFC

Worth mentioning SDG only run at the track was a very good 2nd to captain conan last season.

Micks26

UrbanSea wrote: »

Micks you are yet to mention his run at Chepstow the last day. A demolition job off a mark of 161

Yeah sure look it's notable that he won so well off 161, but I have to be honest the field that day was poor and if ever he was going to win easily off 161 that was the day.

If Special Tiara didn't beat that field by a similar distance off 161 I'd be incredibly surprised and disappointed.

Micks26

SRFC wrote: »

Worth mentioning SDG only run at the track was a very good 2nd to captain conan last season.

Worth mentioning Special Tiara's one and only trip to the UK was a winning one.

SRFC

why did it go off 28/1 though? fluke maybe.

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Mad Moose is an absolute camel

That's generous..he's more like a legless giraffe, but when he decides he might run he's a not bad horse at all.

Micks26

SRFC wrote: »

why did it go off 28/1 though? fluke maybe.

No fluke. Read up and you'll see his respective owners backed him at 66/1 to win the race as far back as October.

He had a prep run at Leopardstown beforehand following a winter break and I can only presume the bookmakers priced him up literally based on that run.

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

Yeah sure look it's notable that he won so well off 161, but I have to be honest the field that day was poor and if ever he was going to win easily off 161 that was the day.

If Special Tiara didn't beat that field by a similar distance off 161 I'd be incredibly surprised and disappointed.

There is no doubt in my mind that special tiara would not be capable of beating majala(a solid yardstick) by 11L giving him 11lb. No chance.

Micks26

http://www.racingbetter.co.uk/race/aintree/2013/maghull_novices_chase.html

No fluke in the owners/trainers eyes.

Micks26

kiers47 wrote: »

There is no doubt in my mind that special tiara would not be capable of beating majala(a solid yardstick) by 11L giving him 11lb. No chance.

Not the best of minds so.

Micks26

I'd be inclined to ignore handicap form when it comes to these good horses.

There's another discussion going on about whether horses do or don't try in handicaps, but yet people want to take handicap form from SDG's race literally... Non sense imo.

stretchaq

My only bet of the day is Thomas Edison I think he has being lined out for this for about 2 years was nearly taken out of it in down royal and still got back for third after being half a furlong behind I think tomorrow is his day the champ up too

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

Not the best of minds so.

There is hardly need to descend to snappy comments I was only giving my opinion. But If your only attempt to throw an insult my way is that 1 childish comment I think it is quite clear who has the better mind.

UrbanSea

Micks26 wrote: »

I'd be inclined to ignore handicap form when it comes to these good horses.

There's another discussion going on about whether horses do or don't try in handicaps, but yet people want to take handicap form from SDG's race literally... Non sense imo.

That is a totally different kettle of fish

Micks26

kiers47 wrote: »

There is hardly need to descend to snappy comments I was only giving my opinion. But If your only attempt to throw an insult my way is that 1 childish comment I think it is quite clear who has the better mind.

Mate it's a Saturday night bit of banter.

Learn to relax and not take life so seriously.

If it makes you feel better then fair enough you have the better mind. Jeeez

kiers47

Micks26 wrote: »

Mate it's a Saturday night bit of banter.

Learn to relax and not take life so seriously.

If it makes you feel better then fair enough you have the better mind. Jeeez

Haha whatever you think boss.

Micks26

UrbanSea wrote: »

That is a totally different kettle of fish

Why?

Paul Nicholls horse that day was clearly in need of the run and was a non trier from half way up the straight, jockey clearly looked after him for obvious reasons.

UrbanSea

If you're discounting all handicap form because there may have been non triers than that is incredible logic.

Micks26

If that form had any decent look about it then would you not of preferred to see Theatrical Star and Rebel Rebellion run some kind of races next time out rather than be beat 16 and 14 lengths?

It was a poor handicap that he won well, but as I say I'd be shocked if Special Tiara would not of done the exact same against those type of horses.

Micks26

UrbanSea wrote: »

If you're discounting all handicap form because there may have been non triers than that is incredible logic.

I'm not discounting it, but at the same time it's nothing standout. He won a Chepstow handicap off 161 by 11 lengths beating a small average field of horses, two of whom have run equally as badly, if not worse since.

UrbanSea

It may have been poor but it was off 161 giving tonnes of weight away and in a canter. You may not have been impressed that's fair enough.


Persistently saying that Special Tara would do the same is pure speculation though.Getting beaten 15 lengths by Baily Green doesn't seem a mid 160s horse but we will see.

madmoose

Put me down ew lads as ill be deffo running tomorrow and will nab some place money.

MOOSE