Evelyn Cusacks forecast tonight

ZX7R

i wonder what Gerry Fleming thinks about long range:not possible

Compu Global Hyper Meganet

mod9maple wrote: »

I just watched it at the end of the link hellboy posted above - about 26 mins in, quote and all.

Got to stop using Opera as my default browser. Switched over to Google Chrome and saw it. Fair play to her!

green123

ZX7R wrote: »

i wonder what Gerry Fleming thinks about long range:not possible

there was a story in the independent earlier today.

Gerald Fleming: Big freeze predictions make my blood boil

" So where do all the predictions of a severe winter come from? From people who do not understand the complexity of the problem, and who make simplistic assumptions.

From people who specialise in speculation, not science. "

http://www.independent.ie/weather/gerald-fleming-big-freeze-predictions-make-my-blood-boil-29756748.html

200motels

I thought she was superb tonight as always.

ZX7R

green123 wrote: »

there was a story in the independent earlier today.

Gerald Fleming: Big freeze predictions make my blood boil

" So where do all the predictions of a severe winter come from? From people who do not understand the complexity of the problem, and who make simplistic assumptions.

From people who specialise in speculation, not science. "

http://www.independent.ie/weather/gerald-fleming-big-freeze-predictions-make-my-blood-boil-29756748.html

but did he not say on live radio we are looking at a mild winter,winter lasts longer than 10 days so in my eyes he made a long range forecast / predicton weater it be a mild winter or a cold one predicted by others,kind of the pot calling the kettle black to me

Busted Flat.

Take into consideration what the Met office said back in 1982 about missing out in forecasting the snow storm that hit the country. It lasted over a week. They claimed they knew about it but not want to panic people in hoarding food.

Iancar29

That ... was... epic... ! haha !

And also! ... who noticed the THUNDERSNOW symbol?!

mike65

She probably caught sight of the Daily Express front page.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Met Eireann retaliates against the forces of long range prediction...........

eastmayo

She be on again after news on rte1 now.just started

Callan57

Evelyn was awesome tonight ... I thought she was going to follow it up with her views on God or religion or the ECB
Best weather forecast ever .. you go girl!

Pangea

It was quite funny to see this tonight, Mr. Postman will be well chuffed he got somewhat of a mention on the main weather forecast, as they say any publicity is good publicity.

king size mars bar wrote: »

One nil to the Evelyn!

More like a consolation goal for Met Eireann, no doubt bitter at the success of M.T and Mr. Postman in years gone by, but unlike Met Eireann they let the weather do the talking, or the animals in Mr. Postmans case

keith16

Pangea wrote: »

More like a consolation goal for Met Eireann, no doubt bitter at the success of M.T and Mr. Postman in years gone by, but unlike Met Eireann they let the weather do the talking, or the animals in Mr. Postmans case

Animals can't talk.

riffmongous

Nice job done 'reading' it off the bluescreen!

But... 'sa-gan'? I've been calling him 'say-gan'

MrBobbyZ

Nice one Ev.
Bringing sunshine to the forecast as always.

sunbabe08

i told my mum how much loved Evelyn because she really goes into detail when she does the weather, but last night was awesome:D:D

i seriously hope rte let her do a weather documentary at some stage

jd

ZX7R wrote: »

but did he not say on live radio we are looking at a mild winter,winter lasts longer than 10 days so in my eyes he made a long range forecast / predicton weater it be a mild winter or a cold one predicted by others,kind of the pot calling the kettle black to me

That's not what he said. He said " there is no reason to believe this winter will be 'particularly severe'". The Indo gave it the headline "Met Eireann: No repeat of Big Freeze this winter".

The most likely outcome is a pretty average winter.

mike65

Ireland = meh winters 9/10

nacho libre

ZX7R wrote: »

but did he not say on live radio we are looking at a mild winter,winter lasts longer than 10 days so in my eyes he made a long range forecast / predicton weater it be a mild winter or a cold one predicted by others,kind of the pot calling the kettle black to me

I agree.
He should have chosen his words more carefully. Perhaps he could have said statistically we are unlikely to have a severe winter this year, but given that long range forecasting is impossible, it would be unwise to categorically dismiss the chances of a very cold winter since we currently can only forecast with some degree of accuracy up to 10 days ahead.

That way it might be harder for the paper to spin what he said in order to make it more eye catching.

weisses

What's the point for a weather forecaster to have a dig at the likes of Ken Ring, The Donegal postman or even MTC ??

Never thought she was that insecure .. sad really

Oscar Bravo

and further to last nights classic forecast Met Eireann have put up this nice little piece.... http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=224

Turtwig

<Self Facepalm : duplicated material from the exact post above me.:o>

wretcheddomain

weisses wrote: »

What's the point for a weather forecaster to have a dig at the likes of Ken Ring, The Donegal postman or even MTC ??

Never thought she was that insecure .. sad really

Just saw this post and thought what a mess it was and needed to respond in kind.

The sadder thing is that many more people believe the Postman and Ken Ring and if nobody actually tells people the other side then they may labour under the impression that both claims are somehow equal. I personally don't think there's anything wrong with forecasters such as Evelyn trying to make the public think correctly about these questions, and as such, it appears it's you who is insecure about this whole situation. Personally, I'd never heard of Edward Lorenz until that broadcast and I did indeed follow her instruction to 'look it up'. I'm sure many other people did this as well and educating some people out of that broadcast is far better than saying nothing and letting the quack side get away with saying whatever they want.

I suggest people actually watch the video for those who haven't and then look up what she suggests:

weisses

wretcheddomain wrote: »

Just saw this post and thought what a mess it was and needed to respond in kind.
The sadder thing is that many more people believe the Postman and Ken Ring and if nobody actually tells people the other side then they may labour under the impression that both claims are somehow equal.

You forgot to mention MT Cranium

wretcheddomain wrote: »

I personally don't think there's anything wrong with forecasters such as Evelyn trying to make the public think correctly about these questions, and as such, it appears it's you who is insecure about this whole situation.

Not insecure at all I like to listen to them all and take them all with a pinch of salt her forecast included

And please don't miss use the word "correctly" above .. All she did an can do is state her opinion regarding this

wretcheddomain wrote: »

I suggest people actually watch the video for those who haven't and then look up what she suggests:

I did

http://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2012/10/pet-sense-disaster/

So where she got the knowledge from to make that statement regarding the animals i don't know, my suggestion would be for her to focus on weather forecasting, seems difficult enough from time to time

Corkfeen

She has a degree in meteorology,she's far more qualified for commenting on long range forecasting than the actual long range forecasters. :rolleyes:

wretcheddomain

weisses wrote: »

All she did an can do is state her opinion regarding this

I just hope you don't misuse the word 'opinion'.

There's an ill educated opinion and a qualified opinion. There are also these very well known things known as facts. The facts that Evelyn presented concerning the uncertainty of meteorological observations cannot be downgraded as 'just another persons opinion'.

weisses

wretcheddomain wrote: »

I just hope you don't misuse the word 'opinion'.

There's an ill educated opinion and a qualified opinion. There are also these very well known things known as facts. The facts that Evelyn presented concerning the uncertainty of meteorological observations cannot be downgraded as 'just another persons opinion'.

Well that's your opinion ...i guess

But I'll bite

Her qualified opinion was NO to the question "can animals predict wheater orearthquakes"

even scientist known whit this issue are still debating this question

So i would qualify that one as Ill informed

Its stupid to suggest Animals can predict disaster... but its correct to say butterflies cause hurricanes which is derived from the theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks earlier.

relaxed

weisses wrote: »

What's the point for a weather forecaster to have a dig at the likes of Ken Ring, The Donegal postman or even MTC ??

Never thought she was that insecure .. sad really

I think Evelyn was responding to questions from people asking why not use the moon and animals etc., because these people think Ken Ring and the Postman are so good.

The problem I think is the media, long range forecasters make loads of prediction, many of which the media like to print, because it fills column inches and sells copy.

When a prediction comes reasonably true the papers resurrect the original article and the forecaster might make it onto to the Ray D'Arcy show or a Supervalu BBQ campaign for example.

When the long range weather forecaster gets it badly wrong the newspaper quietly forgets all about the original article, because they are hardly going to admit that they are printing rubbish, as they want to keep selling papers.

A newspaper new refuses ink.

Reading peoples opinions on these forums show that those of us who want to believe in Ken Ring for example, can interpret his forecasts as being largely correct, whereas those who do not believe in them can interpret them as a load of rubbish.

Its a bit like a fortune teller, they can make sweeping statements based on reasonable probability and in many cases those who pay €10 or €20 or €50 will want to interpret them as being true rather than admit to themselves that they wasted their money.

relaxed

As a side note animals can predict the weather to a point.

Birds flying south for example shows the winter is coming.

Fish jumping in the river probably means a balmy summers evening.

Cows in a line against a ditch in a field with their arses stuck out usually means its pissing rain and they are sheltering.

High flying swallows mean good weather.

ninebeanrows

Amazing scenes!