Saturday 16th Nov

Francie Barrett

Race of the day is at the 2:05 at Wetherby for me tomorrow.

I've put a cross through Frank The Slank. It has raced over this distance before on similar conditions against much weaker opposition and not showed much.

Same goes for Royal Sam, a horse that has past form, but over soft/heavy ground. Maybe one to keep an eye out for over a bottomless slog at Ffos Las.

Scotswell is where the entries look a bit more interesting. This horse should like the distance and the ground, but is a bit too unproven over fences for me to get excited about and I feel the second place it got in it's maiden chase flattered it (2 horse fell in a 5 horse race).

Denali Highway on the other hand has won it's last three races and has been bumped up in the ratings every time to reflect the form. I think it's asking an awful lot for this horse to win considering it's rating has been upped, the trip has been upped and this is the first run of the season it's had.

Grouse Lodge is the horse I would expect to go off favourite. Of it's three last wins, one was virtually a gimmie (a 2 horse race against a far inferior horse) and one was an actual gimmie (it was the sole finisher in another race). I think the last race it won against some very highly rated horse also flatters Grouse Lodge. Most of the runners it beat that day have all done poorly since.

That leaves one horse - No Planning, which I think is set up perfectly for tomorrow. Ryan Mania is onboard, and 3m+ chases are races he just seems to relish, so I have little worries with this regard. The good to soft ground should suit, although while it's unproven over 3m+ - from what I have seen, I think it looks a real stayer. The fact the horse has had a recent run under its belt should help. What really impressed me most about this horse was the run it had last time out where it was a narrow third to a 135 rated horse in a race where I felt Ryan didn't really the horse into the race.

No odds available yet, but I expect this race to be a battle between Grouse Lodge and No Planning, and I think the extra fitness that No Planning will have got from its recent run should be enough to see it home.

Goldcupfav

Just scanning through the cards now one that sticks out to me is On Trend in the 1.50 at Cheltenham could be worth an ew punt at 33/1. Runs off 135 last win was off 131 on heavy ground at Sandown in Feb over 3m. They went a serious gallop on that ground that day. Race for anyone who has a sportinglife account.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/02-02-2013/sandown-park/result/546304/betfred-masters-handicap-chase/video?token=b84d4a3b77

Think this horse has serious stamina and the step up in trip is only going to suit him. Ran a nice race behind HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at Ascot the last day beaten 22L should come on a fair bit fitness wise after that race. Trainers form not great at the moment though. Anyway does come with a few risks but think there are worst 33/1 shots to back tomorrow.

Slattsy

BetVictor are a stand out 16/1 on Ballynagour if anyone fancies it.
Its 13/2 in places.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

BetVictor are a stand out 16/1 on Ballynagour if anyone fancies it.
Its 13/2 in places.

What you shmokin?

Slattsy

On the ATR website its 16/1
But chwcked on the BV site and its 15/2 - my bad!

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

On the ATR website its 16/1
But chwcked on the BV site and its 15/2 - my bad!

No worries. Still value in that imo. Had a small bet on Champion Court @ 12/1 earlier in week but fancy Ballynagour strongly now. He couldn't have been stronger fancied for the festival and had a real excuse for that run (reportedly bled). Clearly best fresh and with all the Pipes carry-on with Dynaste and Salut Flo being pulled, he was always going to be a big gamble. I've missed the 13/8 with PP for him to start fav but think there's still value in the 11/8. His price is only going to go one way.


Ballynagour each-way @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, 5 places
Ballynagour to start fav @ 11/8 with Paddy Power - Nap

SRFC

The last race in Lingfield is the race of the day lads dont mind Cheltenham or Punchestown,



my nap tomorrow is for Champagne Fever to be 2/5 for the Arkle after he wins by half the straight the others wouldnt win if they started now :pac:

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

The last race in Lingfield is the race of the day lads dont mind Cheltenham or Punchestown,



my nap tomorrow is for Champagne Fever to be 2/5 for the Arkle after he wins by half the straight the others wouldnt win if they started now :pac:

Marlbrook could give him a race. Totally unexposed and clearly well thought off.

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Marlbrook could give him a race. Totally unexposed and clearly well thought off.

This horse is a champion,marlbrook is a nice horse but he has stone to improve to get near this beast,Marlbrook might need a run aswell they wont give him a hard time.

Colonel Sanders

jimjamcos wrote: »

Marlbrook could give him a race. Totally unexposed and clearly well thought off.

Marlbrook should at least keep CF honest tomorrow

UrbanSea

Taking on Champagne Fever. Always held Corbally Ghost in very high regard and taking a chance on him

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

This horse is a champion,marlbrook is a nice horse but he has stone to improve to get near this beast,Marlbrook might need a run aswell they wont give him a hard time.

Same applies to Champagne Fever. The prices are probably spot on in representing their chances but @ 1/2 and 9/2 I'd rather back the latter. Obviously the favourite will probably win, and may do so in style, but Marlbrook is a total unknown and may be worth an each-way bet against a fav who has thrown in some very flat performances with his great ones.

SRFC

Yeah I wont be going all in on the 1/2 but ive waiting all this time to see him over fences cant wait to see him chasing can just picture him bolting up in the Arkle from the front.

Johner

African Gold, African Gold, African Gold.

jimjamcos

Johner wrote: »

African Gold, African Gold, African Gold.

You playing @ 7/4?

Johner

jimjamcos wrote: »

You playing @ 7/4?

Not a fan of backing first time out over fences but might have a little bet!

Really looking forward to it though, he is made for fences.

Slattsy

Johner wrote: »

Not a fan of backing first time out over fences but might have a little bet!

Really looking forward to it though, he is made for fences.

He'll piss in.

jimjamcos

Thanks to Huntley flagging him up in the other thread, I backed Recession Proof @ 22/1 earlier with Paddy Power for tomorrow's 3m handicap hurdle. Agree with absolutely everything Huntley has said.

Came 4th in one of the hottest Supreme's we're ever likely to see in 2011 when Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and himself were within 8l of each other with the decent Rathlin and Zaidpour a further 7l's back. Off with injury for a long time after, he returned this season with two poor runs on the flat where he couldn't handle the pace. Upped in trip and back over hurdles tomorrow, he's got to be well handicapped if he retains even a fraction of his ability. See now that his price has shortened right across the board, best price 16/1 and as low as 12's in places. Cooper a notable booking too.

Have also thrown him in an each-way double with Ballynagour.

jimjamcos

Johner wrote: »

Not a fan of backing first time out over fences but might have a little bet!

Really looking forward to it though, he is made for fences.

Yea, I'm the same after Grandouet let me down for double last weekend!

Maybe just a small bet for the RSA so! :P

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

No odds available yet, but I expect this race to be a battle between Grouse Lodge and No Planning, and I think the extra fitness that No Planning will have got from its recent run should be enough to see it home.

3/1 with Bet365 - don't think it'll last.

Morgans

I kinda like two outsiders tomorrow. I think Kumbeshwar could run well in the paddy power and have taken some of the 40s e.w. Will look for place only tomorrow.

Also, I think Bob Ford (1.15 Chelt) is talented, and will make a better chaser than hurdler. I would prefer it to be softer for him but stepping up to 3m, he is interesting. 33/1 in a place - would need to open a new account for it - but 20/1 generally available. I think he is worth a small dabble at those sorts of odds.

SRFC

4 odds on shots for W P Mullins tomorrow at Punchestown,Books could be smashed up.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

4 odds on shots for W P Mullins tomorrow at Punchestown,Books could be smashed up.

With an accumulation price of less than 8/1...bookies will love any mugs backing that! :P


Think JP's horse, The Doorman, will give Mullins likely fav in the 3.20 plenty to think about. He's got very hot form 1/2l 2nd to Minella Foru in his p2p with Nicholls expensively purchased On Blueberry Hill 10l back in 4th. The 3rd has come out and won since too. They clearly rate The Doorman very highly as JP bought Minella Foru straight after he beat him. If I can get 5/2, even 2/1, I'll back The Doorman tomorrow.


I'll also be backing King Shabra @ 3/1 to beat Glens Melody in 12.30. Getting lots of weight from the Mullins horse and ran a fine race when 2nd to the impressive Rule The World lto.

Johner

This Gigginstown horse for Mullins must be a machine, has been smashed up in the betting against one I thought looked very impressive on debut.

Johner

That was impressive.

Francie Barrett

An early double for Mullins, don't think Ruby could have asked for two easier races.

jimjamcos

What happened King Shabra? Didn't see race. Just poor?

Johner

I just couldn't have Champagne Fever for the Arkle, think he would win the Jewson or the RSA. He reminds me of Al Ferof a bit.

jimjamcos

Johner wrote: »

I just couldn't have Champagne Fever for the Arkle, think he would win the Jewson or the RSA. He reminds me of Al Ferof a bit.

Having watched Grandouet and Champagne Fever's first runs over fences, I'm tempted to back Defy Logic for Arkle @ 16/1 NRFB before tomorrow.

Johner

jimjamcos wrote: »

What happened King Shabra? Didn't see race. Just poor?

Jumped very badly all the way around.

hucklebuck

jimjamcos wrote: »

Thanks to Huntley flagging him up in the other thread, I backed Recession Proof @ 22/1 earlier with Paddy Power for tomorrow's 3m handicap hurdle. Agree with absolutely everything Huntley has said.

Came 4th in one of the hottest Supreme's we're ever likely to see in 2011 when Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and himself were within 8l of each other with the decent Rathlin and Zaidpour a further 7l's back. Off with injury for a long time after, he returned this season with two poor runs on the flat where he couldn't handle the pace. Upped in trip and back over hurdles tomorrow, he's got to be well handicapped if he retains even a fraction of his ability. See now that his price has shortened right across the board, best price 16/1 and as low as 12's in places. Cooper a notable booking too.

Have also thrown him in an each-way double with Ballynagour.

I can't get my head around Recession Proof being 16/1 or indeed Salubrious, I reckon they have it between them. Salubrious won well in March and Derham/ Nichols is a combination you should only ignore at your peril.

African Gold got ****ed there by Bob Ford, he was travelling very well and jumped well. He will be in my tracker forever.

droidman123

My bets for today
1euro lucky 15
Godsmejudge @7\1
Solar deity @ 9\4
No planning @5\2
Stow @8\1
All tenner wins
Mojolika @8\1
Araldur @16\1
10 ew vino griego @20\1
10 ew do kaprio @20\1
10 win on sametagal @9\1,great wood tomorrow.
That's my lot for this weekend,happy punting everyone

jimjamcos

hucklebuck wrote: »

I can't get my head around Recession Proof being 16/1 or indeed Salubrious, I reckon they have it between them. Salubrious won well in March and Derham/ Nichols is a combination you should only ignore at your peril.

African Gold got ****ed there by Bob Ford, he was travelling very well and jumped well. He will be in my tracker forever.

Yea, me neither. Probably think he's finished with the game but connections clearly still have confidence in him with Cooper booked.

Hopefully African Gold's price drifts now. Still keen to back him antepost for Cheltenham.

Micks26

King Vuvuzela.

Sorry to keep it so short and sweet, but just reckon he's a cracking bet today.

Micks26

hucklebuck wrote: »

I can't get my head around Recession Proof being 16/1 or indeed Salubrious, I reckon they have it between them. Salubrious won well in March and Derham/ Nichols is a combination you should only ignore at your peril.

African Gold got ****ed there by Bob Ford, he was travelling very well and jumped well. He will be in my tracker forever.

He got bumped, but still beat for me at the time.

Nigel Twiston Davies has a terrible habbit of talking his horses up, over hyping them. I think African Gold is a perfect example.

UrbanSea

Backed Jolily fell at the first :rolleyes:

kiers47

Just backed colour squadron. I might have lost my mind. :-/

Micks26

No cracking bet for me

God you have to give Martin Ferris a lot of credit for that ride.

mr.jingle

Brilliant by Ferris there, thought hed no hope going that far ahead

Micks26

Yeah hats off to him fine ride.

Anyway that's me out for that day. One bet, one loser, I've had enough haha

Johner

Will all the jockeys in behind be getting bans? Oh wait they only do that to amatuers.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

3/1 with Bet365 - don't think it'll last.

9/4, timber!!!!

Colonel Sanders

Haven't seen the novice chase but the vibes for African Gold were awful before. He came back in late from his summer break too so may not have been ready

I'll watch the race later but my first thoughts would be not to give up

hucklebuck

Micks26 wrote: »

He got bumped, but still beat for me at the time.

Nigel Twiston Davies has a terrible habbit of talking his horses up, over hyping them. I think African Gold is a perfect example.

He was hard on the steel coming in to the fence, got cleaned it the air and landed going sideways, everything was off the bridle after that fence.

Would love to see Burton Port win this one.

hucklebuck

Micks26 wrote: »

Nigel Twiston Davies has a terrible habbit of talking his horses up, over hyping them. I think African Gold is a perfect example.

WOW, really?

Going down 4L to At Fishers Cross means he is **** because NTD talked him up.

slaneylad

2 bets today

Astracad 20/1 each way in the paddy power
Supreme Bailerina 5/2 in the Cheltenham Bumper, (got a tip for this one)

Micks26

I must be a sucker for punishment, but I've punted into Sizing Australia.

I can't not back him. Love the horse.

droidman123

Who's the ride with the purple scarf and husky voice presenting on channel 4???

jimjamcos

hucklebuck wrote: »

WOW, really?

Going down 4L to At Fishers Cross means he is **** because NTD talked him up.

...on ground At Fishers Cross adores. African Gold is well worth keeping faith with.

Jimmyod19

Cmon!

Selection Selection Details Result
1
Rugby Union
International Matches
England v New Zealand
16th of Nov 2013 2:30 pm
Handicap Betting
New Zealand (-14.0) @ 11/10
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
Horse Racing
PUNCHESTOWN
13:00 BEGINNERS CHASE 2m 4f
16th of Nov 2013 1:00 pm
Win or E/W
Champagne Fever @ 1/2 (GP)
Win

Selection Selection Details Result
3
Horse Racing
PUNCHESTOWN
12:30 HURDLE (4YO+) 2m 6f
16th of Nov 2013 12:30 pm
Win or E/W
Glens Melody @ 1/2 (GP)
Win

Selection Selection Details Result
4
Horse Racing
PUNCHESTOWN
12:00 JUVENILE HURDLE 2m
16th of Nov 2013 12:00 pm
Win or E/W
Analifet @ 8/13 (GP)
Win

Selection Selection Details Result
5
Horse Racing
WETHERBY
14:05 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 0y
16th of Nov 2013 2:05 pm
Win or E/W
No Planning @ 11/4 (GP)
Win

kksaints

Gone for Ballynagour in the Paddy Power. Wishful Thinking at 33/1 is a decent price as well but its a trickey race. Not one I'd put a lot of money on.