National Hunt(ley's) Thoughts

Huntley

Need somewhere to keep track of the ramblings and selections.

Made the first dip into the AP market today, Don Cossack, 1 point win 20/1 RSA

I think that Don Cossack will be as good a novice stayer as we have this side of the water. I expected more from him over hurdles last season but I think the form-line between Don Cossack/Ned Buntline and Annie Power will prove to be quite strong this year. He has plenty of ability and once he gets a more suitable trip I would expect him to flourish. Out tomorrow at Galway in a decent enough contest over 2m 6f, probably a few who need the run but a decent round of jumping will suffice for me. Couldn't get the price I wanted at short notice unfortunately but happy to jot him in the book at this stage.

Johner

Couldn't ask for more from a debut, was at Naas roaring him home on the tele!

hucklebuck

Nice bet Huntley, only 16's in places now.

Un Atout was my idea of the winner but given his setback I will be rowing in on Don Cossack.

Huntley

Was there myself Johner, only saw the race now. Yeah it was pleasing to get him out and around but you don't win Grade 1's in October. He was a bit clumsy going into a few but sorted himself out nicely, was clever at the last two aswell. It's a nice race to get the stayers out in, I remember Last Instalment winning it two years ago when it probably shouldn't even have been run.

I may have even backed him too soon hucklebuck, I think he will definitely end up the best stayer of the bunch here but wouldn't be surprised if he was beaten somewhere myself.

I'd like to see Don Cossack back over 2 and a half to be honest, the Drinmore is probably the one for that. He has a huge engine but seems a bit slow all the same, I'd like to see how his jumping holds up when he isn't hacking around at a leisurely pace. I'm sure that is the plan anyway you just wouldn't want to throw them out of their comfort zone first time out. Ideally he would go Drinmore, Fort Leney or the Greenmount at Christmas and then back for the Moriarty. That's a lot easier said then done but I wouldn't be unleashing him over 3 miles until the festival if he gets there. A nice type to follow anyway.

Slattsy

Has to be doubts about him on ground that isn't soft or heavy.

Huntley

Slattsy wrote: »

Has to be doubts about him on ground that isn't soft or heavy.

Not particularly but I know what you are saying. He would act on better ground alright but his lack of speed would be a concern for me. In any case it is very early days, ideally he will be seen over 2 and a half next time out and I'd expect that to be the case.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

I may have even backed him too soon hucklebuck, I think he will definitely end up the best stayer of the bunch here but wouldn't be surprised if he was beaten somewhere myself.

I dunno 20/1 is a fair price, I would have backed him already but I was waiting for payday. He definitely needs the step up, for me the only issue for him is his lack of speed but he can always kick on a mile out. I agree about the ground too, he handles heavy but cant see why he would struggle in good/soft as others are suggesting.

Slattsy

I can't see how kicking on a mile out on better ground will help him.

Save your money on payday. Buy yourself something, new shirt maybe.

hucklebuck

Slattsy wrote: »

I can't see how kicking on a mile out on better ground will help him.

Save your money on payday. Buy yourself something, new shirt maybe.

Did someone steal your glasses? Kicking on a mile out is a good tactic if you lack pace rather than being a sitting duck at the business end. I did not mention only kicking on if the ground is good.

Slattsy

Also i dont think the horse simply "handles" heavy ground. To me he excels in it.


Sorry to take up so much of the thread on this!!

Slattsy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Did someone steal your glasses? Kicking on a mile out is a good tactic if you lack pace rather than being a sitting duck at the business end. I did not mention only kicking on if the ground is good.

A mile :eek:

Huntley

Zarkandar, 2 points win 9/1 World Hurdle

I'm intrigued to see Zarkandar over 3 miles and think he is a live danger in the World Hurdle. I've never hid my disdain for him as a 2 miler and think it was a futile exercise running him in the Champion Hurdle last season. He was deserving of the chance to line up in 2012 on the back of the Triumph but he has never looked like a genuine 2 miler to me. He just lacked that bit of speed but has an unwavering will to win which probably allowed him to win more races than he was entitled to.

I've always felt he was running over distances that didn't suit or enable him to show his best form. Although it is hard to gauge the form at the tail end of a season he gave a sound performance over 2 and a half in the Aintree Hurdle in April when seeing off The New One. He had plenty of guts on that occasion aswell and that is something which will stand to him over the longer trip when the tank is running low. There is nothing in the field I would fear if the main protagonists line up, with the exception of Big Bucks. He came in a little heavy and has only been cantering for the last two weeks so won't be seen until the turn of the year. I'd have no problem in backing him aswell if required but I'm happy to have Nicholls's other hope onside for the time being. By all accounts it seems that Zarkandar will tip around the 2 and a half mile races until March, and may even run in the Bula again if the conditions were testing enough. There is a question mark over whether he will actually see out the three miles but it's not a concern for me. I'd be more concerned that connections might be happy to give Cheltenham a skip and contest a couple of the other middle distance races.

Huntley

Had a glance at the big races this weekend. Struggling to see an angle why Long Run isn't worthy of a max bet in the Charlie Hall. I'll review that tomorrow but at first glance he would need to run about a stone out to lose.

Sizing Europe favourite for the chase in Down Royal, anyone offering that might aswell be wearing a balaclava. He is going to make the market for that one anyway. Never a 3 miler, not going to get the trip now unless it is run abysmally slow.

Grandouet is entered for a beginners chase in Uttoxeter on Friday. Will need to weigh in on him aswell over the next few days.

jimjamcos

Huntley wrote: »

Had a glance at the big races this weekend. Struggling to see an angle why Long Run isn't worthy of a max bet in the Charlie Hall. I'll review that tomorrow but at first glance he would need to run about a stone out to lose.

Sizing Europe favourite for the chase in Down Royal, anyone offering that might aswell be wearing a balaclava. He is going to make the market for that one anyway. Never a 3 miler, not going to get the trip now unless it is run abysmally slow.

Grandouet is entered for a beginners chase in Uttoxeter on Friday. Will need to weigh in on him aswell over the next few days.

Bookies only going 2 places but I think Mount Benbulben going right-handed is the ew bet at Down Royal. Massive engine and if his jumping holds up going his preferred way round, he could upset FL who struggles to win at this time of year.

SRFC

Huntley wrote: »

Had a glance at the big races this weekend. Struggling to see an angle why Long Run isn't worthy of a max bet in the Charlie Hall. I'll review that tomorrow but at first glance he would need to run about a stone out to lose.

Sizing Europe favourite for the chase in Down Royal, anyone offering that might aswell be wearing a balaclava. He is going to make the market for that one anyway. Never a 3 miler, not going to get the trip now unless it is run abysmally slow.

Grandouet is entered for a beginners chase in Uttoxeter on Friday. Will need to weigh in on him aswell over the next few days.

Long run Always needs his first run,has an amatuer on board and isnt improving,makes him poor value.

Huntley

jimjamcos wrote: »

Bookies only going 2 places but I think Mount Benbulben going right-handed is the ew bet at Down Royal. Massive engine and if his jumping holds up going his preferred way round, he could upset FL who struggles to win at this time of year.

Yeah he is a favourite of mine, payed his way when novice hurdling for one of the threads I had running. It is a messy enough race to find the winner, plenty of good animals who aren't too far adrift. I'd be inclined to give it a miss and will do so, but there is a decent price winner there for anyone willing to overlook the favourite. You can be sure that Realt Dubh won't be travelling like the outsider two from home though, what happens after that is debatable.

SRFC wrote: »

Long run Always needs his first run,has an amatuer on board and isnt improving,makes him poor value.

That is far too basic an analysis and probably the reason the horse is the current price.

He is probably the most consistent stayer in training, I've seen him run one poor race and that was the 2012 Gold Cup. I opposed him last year with a maximum bet on Silviniaco Conti because he was facing a fitter, high quality animal. The season prior to that he was beaten by Kauto Star who was still running to a mark in the high 170s.

I'm always willing to oppose him in the right circumstances because he does have his flaws. I think he will be a big player in the King George this year again and will more than likely carry my money there if Silviniaco Conti doesn't show (which seems to be the case). He will undoubtedly come on from the run but he hasn't run to a mark lower than 170 in his last two seasonal openers. Do you think that he will run to a lower mark this time or that something will improve into the 170s? I don't see that happening with this field, Unioniste will probably improve during the season as will a couple of others but I can't see it being to the level that is needed to turn Long Run over. He is simply different class to this lot and only him running a stone or so out will see him lose, something which I think is highly unlikely. If you think that is possible I would be interested to hear the angle for it. It mustn't be forgotten that the majority of these are having their first run aswell.

I will say that he doesn't really tend to win by big distances, partly due to something running its own race in behind and coming into the picture late. I'd expect something of a similar nature to happen at the weekend but anything that wants to take him on will suffer in my opinion. There will definitely be races to overlook him in during the season but I don't think this is one of them.

Long Run, 8 points win at 6/5, Charlie Hall Chase

Hulk Hands

I agree that bar long run it looks a terrible race. How there isnt a bigger discrepancy in price between Unioniste and LR is beyond me. I think Unioniste is a far cry from top class. The only danger to my mind looks Benefficient. The problem there is, how likely is he to go, and is he likely to get decent ground which seems essential to the horse. I'd say neither is that likely. Loath as I am to say it, 5/4 LR does look far too big. Might wait off until early Friday and hope the price is still there.

ste2010

I think Harry Topper is the next best horse in the race. He has to come on a good 15lbs to win on Saturday but he is a dour stayer. If the race is run any way slow he will be thereabouts at the end. It's a tough ask to beat long run but he's a nice price ew.
Unioniste isn't the animal some believe he is iMO

Huntley

The Giant Bolster would have been a danger getting 10lbs but I can't see anything with enough improvement first time out to beat Long Run. He won't be running his best but I can't see a drastic enough decline that is required for him to lose. He would need to run a stone out and I don't see the likelihood for that to happen. A couple are entitled to improve out of novice company but not to the extent that is needed in my opinion.

ste2010 wrote: »

I think Harry Topper is the next best horse in the race. He has to come on a good 15lbs to win on Saturday but he is a dour stayer. If the race is run any way slow he will be thereabouts at the end. It's a tough ask to beat long run but he's a nice price ew.
Unioniste isn't the animal some believe he is iMO

Probably the best animal Kim Bailey has had in the yard since Master Oats I would think? Harry Topper might need an absolute bog to show his best form like him aswell. (Some people barely know he is a man not to mind noting he won the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle at the same festival) How often is it though that you see over a stone improvement in an animal running in the company of a grade 1 stayer? It would be an unprecedented rise for a novice to run over a stone better first time up in open company. I'm not sure how well he would need to run to place, as someone who follows the horse you would probably judge that better than myself Ste. He isn't the winner for me though so I'm not interested in him as a betting proposition.

I've waded in with another 2 points on Long Run to win anyway.

Huntley

It’s no surprise I’ve taken a clip at the NRFB for the Arkle with Grandouet. Although he has never really had a clean time of it out of novice company I’m glad to see him go over fences this season. Plenty of good horses coming through in the Champion Hurdle picture and the boat has probably left on that one.

In any case, he is still only going on seven and has plenty of class about him. He has always looked a chaser but had so much speed that you couldn’t fault letting him take his chance at the Champion Hurdle. For those that haven’t seen him in the flesh he is an absolute monster of a horse, he dwarfs any of the current 2 mile hurdlers. He does have his quirks alright and is known to put on the tap shoes when he is cooped up in the box for too long, hopefully he can keep things under wraps a bit more now he is older. As a hurdler, he had plenty of speed but just tended to flatten out when looking for an effort. That isn’t uncommon for animals with such a high cruising speed but he was very reliant on certain type of races as a result. He pretty much needed a tow until about a furlong out when he could do everything else for speed who had been struggling to go the gallop while he was in cruise control. He is still best suited by running right off the shoulder of something but over fences his style might not make him as reliant on that. He has a sensational cruising speed and the way he jumped a hurdle I would expect him to be taking lengths out of the field in the air. He is a little clumsy all the same and does have the tendency to run around for a mile and then take a look around, that is something that will only straighten out on the racecourse someday. A noseband would do the world of good in my opinion but that’s another story.

The only other animal I like in this contest is Champagne Fever. I think it will turn out to be a poor enough affair but he is one I am a big fan of. The last Supreme winner to take to the Arkle was Al Ferof, their similar coats bearing no resemblance to their ability. Al Ferof ran up the hill past a couple of weak, immature horses in the Supreme and had no business running in the Arkle. Champagne Fever has shaped to be a mature enough type already but he has an extra gear that John Hales’s horse never had. I remember hearing about 18 months ago after he won the bumper that he was a serious chaser, and would expect no different now. However, he may just be the type of animal that would suit Grandouet by dragging him around the track before the French gelding could hit the turbo. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Champagne Fever take in the Jewson either depending what route they want to go in the future but he is probably good enough to run in this. If Grandouet decides to partake in a quick gymnastics session at some stage this season and misses out I would happily transfer the cash to the grey. I'm a fan of Ned Buntline aswell at a price but it is too early to see how he will fare but probably just lacks that bit of class, he jumps a fence though.

10/1 NRFB is a serious offer for a horse of Grandouet’s quality, especially in light of the fact I think it will be a poor enough affair. I love nothing better than seeing a young novice flying around fences and I definitely think that Munir has a serious contender for the Arkle. I’ve every confidence he is good enough to smash the likely field with only Champagne Fever a significant danger. I won’t be losing faith at this stage anyway and have taken a maximum bet on him for this. He is entered for Uttoxeter on Friday or could give that a skip and show up next Tuesday at Exeter, either way I’m just excited to see how good a jumper he is. As long as he doesn’t go for a mid race wander he is going to be a machine over fences. I hope the select few followers haven’t lost faith yet, good things come to those who wait as they say.

Grandouet, 10 points win at 10/1 NRFB, Arkle 2014

SRFC

If he can jump he'll go well but is it not more of a case like some horses they're only going chasing because he wont win anything decent over hurdles rather than the plan always to go chasing or am I wrong?


Is there any terms and conditions to the ante post NRFB offer,is the stake included in winning of the potential free bet?

Huntley

SRFC wrote: »

If he can jump he'll go well but is it not more of a case like some horses they're only going chasing because he wont win anything decent over hurdles rather than the plan always to go chasing or am I wrong?

I would think that he probably showed enough as a juvenile to merit a chance over hurdles out of novice company. He looked electric until he got injured first time around and then never seemed to be absolutely right last season.

As I said last year he was always bound to go chasing for me anyway unless he was totally dominant over hurdles. Has plenty of size about him and should be making lengths in the air, only danger for me is that he is still a bit clumsy. My Tent Or Yours is a made chaser aswell, he is just good enough over hurdles to merit a crack at the Champion.

The Arkle is my favourite race but it will be another poor affair. If either of Grandouet or Champagne Fever line up it is a closed book for me anyway.

I would expect you wouldn't get your stake returned if you avail of the offer.

ste2010

Huntley wrote: »

Probably the best animal Kim Bailey has had in the yard since Master Oats I would think? Harry Topper might need an absolute bog to show his best form like him aswell. (Some people barely know he is a man not to mind noting he won the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle at the same festival) How often is it though that you see over a stone improvement in an animal running in the company of a grade 1 stayer? It would be an unprecedented rise for a novice to run over a stone better first time up in open company. I'm not sure how well he would need to run to place, as someone who follows the horse you would probably judge that better than myself Ste. He isn't the winner for me though so I'm not interested in him as a betting proposition.

I've waded in with another 2 points on Long Run to win anyway.

It's a tall ask to improve a stone I am hoping long runs freshness will reduce the need close that level of margin on the day. I think he is a certainty to place. Wayward prince placed if I can recall last year running at a ridiculous price.
Long run is the sensible win bet no doubting.

Johner

Looks like Exeter on Tuesday for Grandouet.

Huntley

Johner wrote: »

Looks like Exeter on Tuesday for Grandouet.

Or Warwick on Wednesday! It’s encouraging to see him out early anyway, it would be nice to see him put 15 lengths or so on a couple of these 140 rated animals.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=77398735

I had a quick look at this, hopefully Grandouet can give me half the buzz I got off watching Sprinter Sacre as a novice.

Huntley

Champion Hurdle

I have no interest in getting involved with the Champion Hurdle animals yet from a betting perspective, it is shaping up to be far too competitive an affair to be dipping into this soon for me.

I like the The New One, he is a high quality animal who looks well rounded. His form is rock solid, a close second to At Fishers Cross at Cheltenham, ran away from the Neptune field and was just piped to the post by Zarkandar in the Aintree Hurdle. Undoubtedly he has an impressive book to date but he just doesn’t strike me as the Champion Hurdler. The Neptune was visibly impressive, although there is nothing overly exhilarating about running away from a bunch of stayers in a slowly run affair over 2m 5f.

His Aintree Hurdle effort was a good run, he went away from some decent animals in behind in open company to run a gallant second. His seasonal opener in Kempton was a sound effort, but I wouldn’t adhere to the overwhelming commotion about The New One that has ensued. He ran away from Rock on Ruby, a decent horse but one that will probably not run as badly for the rest of the season. If it was good ground around Cheltenham that he did it I would take note, but he beat him around a sharp track on ground that didn’t suit Rock on Ruby. It is worth noting that Rock on Ruby was trashed last year in the Bula first time up, if that race had been around Kempton he quite possibly may have been beaten by a similar distance. What was telling for me was that The New One doesn’t have that visual gear to just go, he takes a couple of strides to outrun other animals. There is nothing wrong with that, other horses with similar attributes have won Champion Hurdles and will continue to do so. My own opinion is that he just sustains a continued gallop throughout, I don’t actually think he is fast so to speak. I just like a Champion Hurdler to be able to change gear on a penny and not be found wanting, I’ve yet to see can The New One do that in a true 2 mile race. He will need to improve his hurdling aswell by all accounts, it isn’t clean enough to hold up for a blistering two miles yet. He is definitely one to consider anyway but personally I just haven’t got the impression that he is a Champion Hurdler. I’m open to him being one, but just a little pessimistic about it.

Jezki is out tomorrow anyway, a horse that I was quite fond of during his bumper days but didn’t take much notice of last season. He has grown on me during the off season, I’m keen to see how he has progressed. If you could create a Champion Hurdler’s build it would be Jezki. He is a picturesque model of a 2 mile hurdler, a stoutly bred animal with plenty of power in the quarters. His form last year was solid, he was never far away in the grade 1s when beaten and was close enough to Champagne Fever to warrant my respect. He may have been a little unlucky in the Supreme but ran a credible race all the same, a very strong third behind two quality animals up front. He was a nice quick, clean hurdler for a novice and I wouldn’t be too worried about him in that regard. My concern with him would be that I’m not sure how much growing he has in him, he looked fairly filled out to my eyes last season and may just lack that extra bit of toe when most needed.

Everything about My Tent Or Yours suggests he should be a chaser. He has definitely shown enough to warrant a crack at this anyway, he showed plenty of speed as a novice when running in second in the Supreme. His Aintree outing was a routine affair but his class is undeniable. He seemed a little light last year as a novice, he had a sensational cruising speed which was all he needed to win his races until the Supreme. After travelling like a dream throughout he just didn’t have enough to pass the ever present Champagne Fever when coming to challenge. He has plenty of maturing to do in that regard and I would think that a more filled out version will have no problem finding for pressure when needed. Off the top of my head I think his hurdling is adequate, I don’t think he is quick from one side to the next but I’ll need to review that. My first impression on the basis of last season is that he is the Champion Hurdler. Plenty of class, just needs to mature that bit more to give himself that extra little grit when needed. Should he get to the Christmas Hurdle with a run under his belt I would expect him to murder anything, whether he would do the same at Cheltenham is questionable.

I don’t like Our Conor. At all. Just a hunch.

Hurricane Fly is as solid a horse you will see but I suspect that this year will be a bad one to lack those extra gears like he does. A solid contender all the same. I’m more interested to see how Jezki fares against him and Our Conor in the Morgiana, although I have a suspicion that Mullins will leave the two young guns to contest that one.

I'll add a couple of others when necessary.

My Tent Or Yours would be my choice now, with Jezki a close second. Far too early to nail the colours to the mast betting wise however.

Slattsy

Im on Jezki big time

And i think Our Conor is a big fraud!

madmoose

Oscar Rock runs over hurdles at wetherby tomorrow.

One to follow from that jumpers to follow book that got a good write up from kings yard called CarragMor makes its hurdles debut in the first at uttoxeter, highly thought of by adrian maguire when with him and impressed in his p2p. Could be one for the albert bartlett

Mossey Joe

Huntley wrote: »

Champion Hurdle

I have a suspicion that Mullins will leave the two young guns to contest that one.

What gives you that suspicion? He's the best hurdler since Istabraq, unless something goes wrong he's hardly going to hide from 2 second season hurdlers is he?

Huntley

Mossey Joe wrote: »

What gives you that suspicion? He's the best hurdler since Istabraq, unless something goes wrong he's hardly going to hide from 2 second season hurdlers is he?

He is currently unfit and I can't see him starting off in the Morgiana. I never mentioned hiding but if he isn't fit to give a decent account of himself I can't see him lining up.

hucklebuck

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I agree that bar long run it looks a terrible race. How there isnt a bigger discrepancy in price between Unioniste and LR is beyond me. I think Unioniste is a far cry from top class. The only danger to my mind looks Benefficient. The problem there is, how likely is he to go, and is he likely to get decent ground which seems essential to the horse. I'd say neither is that likely. Loath as I am to say it, 5/4 LR does look far too big. Might wait off until early Friday and hope the price is still there.

Long Run should walk it, the front running tactics they have eventually decided on have helped. I was looking at an each way option with Benneficient but he has an entry in Down too, also The Giant Bolster looked intetesting receiving weight but he isnt in betting markets.

I might just go for a treble LR, At Fishers Cross and Sizing Europe if the rain keeps away, I dont know if its my imagination but I thought last year he was better than the previous two years, naturally still a risky leg of the bet, hopefully Andy holds on to him as long as possible.

hucklebuck

SRFC wrote: »

Long run Always needs his first run,has an amatuer on board and isnt improving,makes him poor value.

Pssst, he has always had an amateur on board.

premierstone

hucklebuck wrote: »

Pssst, he has always had an amateur on board.

Its still a negative though, although I do agree with Huntley that this looks like a penalty kick for LR.

jimjamcos

hucklebuck wrote: »

Long Run should walk it, the front running tactics they have eventually decided on have helped. I was looking at an each way option with Benneficient but he has an entry in Down too, also The Giant Bolster looked intetesting receiving weight but he isnt in betting markets.

I might just go for a treble LR, At Fishers Cross and Sizing Europe if the rain keeps away, I dont know if its my imagination but I thought last year he was better than the previous two years, naturally still a risky leg of the bet, hopefully Andy holds on to him as long as possible.

First Lieutenant (3/1 with PP) and Mount Benbulben ew (6/1, 3 places with BV) are the bets for me.

As Gordon Elliott said at the Betfair preview night before Cheltenham last year, Lynch only knows one way to ride and will get a horn a mile out!

In all seriousness though, Lynch has failed to get a 3m win out of both Sizing and Flemenstar, albeit both were beaten by top horses over the trip. Although he hasn't really been to blame, I don't think he's helped either. He definitely doesn't have the brain of a Ruby when t comes to helping a horse get a trip. I see no reason why Sizing should be favourite to achieve something he never has before when there's proven, natural stayers in the field.

hucklebuck

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lynch has failed to get a 3m win out of both Sizing and Flemenstar, albeit both were beaten by top horses over the trip.

I know its a big risk but it looks like coming up good or yielding at worse and he looks the be the same old Sizing and my view on Sizing last year was he looked more like the Sizing that won the CC in imperious fashion. At the end of the day he is still one of the best chasers on the block and if the ground comes up good he will take some beating. Two concerns are the trip and if Sizing has regressed, I couldnt see it last time out.

Thats gas what Elliot said, I did say hopefully he holds on to him.

akelly02

hucklebuck wrote: »

Long Run should walk it, the front running tactics they have eventually decided on have helped. I was looking at an each way option with Benneficient but he has an entry in Down too, also The Giant Bolster looked intetesting receiving weight but he isnt in betting markets.

I might just go for a treble LR, At Fishers Cross and Sizing Europe if the rain keeps away, I dont know if its my imagination but I thought last year he was better than the previous two years, naturally still a risky leg of the bet, hopefully Andy holds on to him as long as possible.

Are all 3 running saturday?

Huntley

You are a brave man backing him hucklebuck, the fact he quite visibly fell into a hole two years ago is justification that 3 miles is at the very end of his tether.

I'm not really sure about the ground being as big a concern though, I’ve seen it suggested that good ground gives a horse a better chance of seeing out a trip which is flawed logic. The undoing or exposing of his lack of staying power will be by virtue of the pace of the race. Better ground will be no good to him if they go a solid pace, a slower paced race in deeper ground would actually place less emphasis on his stamina. If Sizing Europe is to win this race you can guarantee that the time will be significantly slow. That might happen, but he needs a lot to go in his favour.

I’m not sure what it is going to take for Long Run to go odds on. A couple of more withdrawals in between and little change to his price across the board. Too many people are too scared to have a go with a shorty at times, I expected him to be about 8/13.

Hulk Hands

Huntley wrote: »

I'm not really sure about the ground being as big a concern though, I’ve seen it suggested that good ground gives a horse a better chance of seeing out a trip which is flawed logic. The undoing or exposing of his lack of staying power will be by virtue of the pace of the race. Better ground will be no good to him if they go a solid pace, a slower paced race in deeper ground would actually place less emphasis on his stamina. If Sizing Europe is to win this race you can guarantee that the time will be significantly slow. That might happen, but he needs a lot to go in his favour.

I'm not sure if you're saying you've seen this here or in the wider racing media. But you are very much in the minority with your view on things. That flawed logic is the same logic ive seen Paul Nicholls, Ruby Walsh, Ted Walsh, Tom Segal and Francome use in the past. You're entitiled to your view but stating it as fact is wrong.

Huntley

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'm not sure if you're saying you've seen this here or in the wider racing media. But you are very much in the minority with your view on things. That flawed logic is the same logic ive seen Paul Nicholls, Ruby Walsh, Ted Walsh, Tom Segal and Francome use in the past. You're entitiled to your view but stating it as fact is wrong.

It is an extremely basic form of analysis, ultimately flawed by the idea that solely good ground will improve a horses chances of getting a trip.

A fast pace over good ground will place more emphasis on stamina than a slower paced race on deeper ground. There are even more variables to consider within those situations but the point that good ground is always beneficial in a horse seeing out a trip is flawed. I would be interested to see any evidence/reasoned views which refutes that, regardless of who has said it.

Huntley

Mullaghanoe River is a promising type, very interested to see how he takes to fences under rules. There is a decent handicap for him somewhere anyway.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

You are a brave man backing him hucklebuck, the fact he quite visibly fell into a hole two years ago is justification that 3 miles is at the very end of his tether.

You are being kind in the extreme, I think its a crazy bet but I took Kauto then Quito against him last two tries, the ground is in his favour for the first time and I think it could help him get the furlong/2 furlongs he didnt get when Quito beat him. I backed Quito that day as I thought the ground looked tackier than the soft description.

I see your point about a quicker race on quicker ground but a quicker pace from the front from Sizing could put the three milers under serious pressure from the front on better ground. The major issue will be the trip as he could be a 2m 7f 1y horse.

Huntley

Mullaghanoe River never travelled really and was disappointing but he will come good during the season.

That was a satisfactory opener from Jezki, despite the farcical race. I’m a big fan of his hurdling, once he kicked the pace up a bit he was very quick from one side to the next. Made a mess of the last however which he did in the Supreme aswell. He may have just been tiring on that occasion and the same again today but he won’t get away with that against stiffer opposition. I’m still concerned about his gears, it turned into a bit of a sprint but I need to see more from him. It’s early days yet but definitely one I would still be fond of. Super hurdler though, the Morgiana will be educational.

hucklebuck

Am I hallucinating, Long Run and Fishers Cross double is 3.75? Is it payday already?

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Oscar Rock runs over hurdles at wetherby tomorrow.

One to follow from that jumpers to follow book that got a good write up from kings yard called CarragMor makes its hurdles debut in the first at uttoxeter, highly thought of by adrian maguire when with him and impressed in his p2p. Could be one for the albert bartlett

Both impressive, backed Carriag Mor the other day for the a.bartlett at 25/1

madmoose

hucklebuck wrote: »

Am I hallucinating, Long Run and Fishers Cross double is 3.75? Is it payday already?

Couldnt believe it myself so put a nice few quid on it.

SRFC

madmoose wrote: »

Both impressive, backed Carriag Mor the other day for the a.bartlett at 25/1

Forgot to look at this today :mad:



Serious performance even if it was only around Uttoxoter.

Colonel Sanders

Long Run will surely be 6/4 tomorrow and that will be enough to make me bite

Tbh 11/8 is but I think the weekly competition to see who can stick their neck out furthest in terms of attracting turnover will see punters looking at 6/4

madmoose

Really surprised long run isnt odds on considering this field isnt anywhere near the calibre of kauto star and s.conti whom long run got turned over by on previous seasonal appearances.

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

Am I hallucinating, Long Run and Fishers Cross double is 3.75? Is it payday already?

Throw in cue card on Tuesday and you have 9-1

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

Throw in cue card on Tuesday and you have 9-1

And add Wise Dan tomorrow night for 19/1..

Colonel Sanders

I'd much rather 11/8 Long Run than evs At Fishers Cross

Needless to say AFC will hose in & Unioniste will chin Long Run now!