Racing Post Trophy 2013.

tryfix

It's that time of year again when we get a serious Derby contender emerging from the Racing Post Trophy.

Kingston Hill DI = 1.33 CD = 0.38 7/2

Pinzolo DI = 0.53 CD = -0.23 7/2

Century DI = 0.62 CD = -0.12 4/1

Somewhat DI = 1.81 CD = 0.47 13/2

Chief Barker DI = 1.67 CD = 0.45 8/1

Johann Strauss DI = 0.89 CD = 0.06 8/1

Snow Sky DI = 1.25 CD = 0.39 14/1

Buonarroti DI = 0.88 CD = 0.13 16/1

Altruistic DI = 1.25 CD = 0.33 16/1

The Grey Gatsby DI = 1.00 CD = 0.15

Dolce N Karama DI = 2.43 CD = 0.92 200/1


The last 10 winners had Dosage Indexes and prices of.

2012 Kinsbarns DI = 0.89 CD = 0.17 15/8f.
2011 Camelot DI = 0.68 CD = -0.06 10/11f
2010 Casemento DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20 2/1f.
2009 St Nicholas Abbey DI = 0.62 CD = -0.15 13/8f
2008 Crowded House DI = 1.04 CD = 0.22 7/1f
2007 Ibn Khaldun DI = 1.38 CD = 0.47 11/4f
2006 Authorized DI = 0.62 CD = -0.14 25/1
2005 Palace Episode DI = 2.53 CD = 0.83 20/1
2004 Motivator DI = 1.04 CD = 0.17 6/4f
2003 American Post DI = 0.60 CD = -0.22 5/6f



Can't be having the first two in the betting as any kind of value even though its a very good race for favourites.

Century is a whopping price for a horse with the perfect O Brien profile coming into the race. His pedigree and trainers record in the race screams winner of this and of the Derby. Although the vibes can't be that good if his price isn't that short.

Looking at past winners of the race, the ones with the low Dosage Indexes went on to greater things at 3 which should be kept in mind for next years derby.

It's quite amazing that Camelot managed to win a guineas with his DI and it's no wonder he flopped when kept to short distances this year. May well have done well at 12f if he'd been given a chance this year.

UrbanSea

I really really liked Century after his debut but his lack of strength in the market is off putting. Probably not a betting race for me but 9/2 is certainly value given he was 11/4 early in the week

Backstreet Moyes

I heard Century was meant to be a good horse before his first run. In the race was meant to be one of Ox's best 2yr old's who was backed like they expected him to win. Century was 4 or 5 lengths behind Ox's horse 2 furlongs out and picked up a train going past him with both finishing well clear. I think this horse could be serious and O Brien's usually come on for the first run. I am allover him tomorrow.

Slattsy

Plenty of noise around for Johann Strauss.

Backed Century for the Derby at 33s last week. So prepared to watch and wait tomorrow. I love these late season runners he unleashes. Nearly always a Derby type.

Harry Angstrom

Kingston Hill for me. Progressive horse, Group 2 form. Been supplemented for this.

Slattsy

A few more good things for me today :

Chepstow:
A fancy Nicholls to get a few today, Just A Par should pi$$ in on route to better things and i liked the look of Caesar Milan last year and interesting Nicholls throws him into a good race like this for his hurdles debut.
Notus De La Tour has a squeak for Pipe later on too.

Might give Stubbs a chance in the first at Donny, went off 5/2 for the Coventry so they rate him highly. By Danehill Dancer so ground shouldnt be a concern.
Ennistown should give a good run too for Godolphin and their end of season form is worth following.

UrbanSea

I still find it hard to believe that Stubbs will be seen at his best over six. I would rather see him over seven now

Harry Angstrom

UrbanSea wrote: »

I still find it hard to believe that Stubbs will be seen at his best over six. I would rather see him over seven now

He's very weak in the betting. Out to 7/2 in places.

Backstreet Moyes

Not backing a 4/7 shot on his first run but Mullins in the first is supposed to be a beast.

Slattsy

Nuts102 wrote: »

Not backing a 4/7 shot on his first run but Mullins in the first is supposed to be a beast.

Fernando or Xabi?

Backstreet Moyes

Slattsy wrote: »

Fernando or Xabi?

Said to be like the two of them in one.

droidman123

Lucky 15
Piping rock 2.20 newb @100/30
Cubinata 2.55 newb @7/1
Tinker time 3.35. Cheps @33/1
Araldur 4.10 cheps @6/1
Win samsharp @11/1
Win takeroc@11/1
E/w doc hay@20/1
Win century @9/2
Win teetotal @14/1
Win Nicholas Copernicus @5/1
Win cool baranca@ 14/1
Win Mr moonshine @10/1
Win regiment @11/1

That's all my bets for today,good luck to everyone and happy punting

Slattsy

Back a few more horses there Droidman!!

Slattsy

Giroud first goal here.

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

Back a few more horses there Droidman!!

Haha if I get even one winner I will be happy

ste2010

Very peculiar finish to the aintree race..interested to see ifbutandwhynot had some problems..McCoy barely raised the whip to him when in contention

droidman123

Phase shift looks way over priced at 9/1 in the next at stratford

Slattsy

Pipping Rock here.

Slattsy

Just a Par wont be winning any decent pots!!

tryfix

Masterstroke is worth a punt on in St Simon stakes, a crap field and bog like conditions that'll allow him produce his best.

droidman123

Woohooo....2 up,2 to go

tryfix

tryfix wrote: »

Masterstroke is worth a punt on in St Simon stakes, a crap field and bog like conditions that'll allow him produce his best.

They should just shoot him and save the training fees..:pac:

Slattsy

droidman123 wrote: »

Woohooo....2 up,2 to go

2 up, 22 to go more like!

droidman123

tryfix wrote: »

They should just shoot him and save the training fees..:pac:

Got cubanita at 7/1 this morning!

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

2 up, 22 to go more like!

Piping rock and cubanita,first two in a lucky 15

Slattsy

Backed Walkon here

ft9

Slattsy wrote: »

Backed Walkon here

Same as. Putting in some leaps

ft9

ft9 wrote: »

Same as. Putting in some leaps

LOL!

droidman123

Hope choc is OK, looked a horrible fall

Colonel Sanders

Hope Thornton's ok, that was one if the worst unseats I've ever seen

droidman123

Doc hay e/w @20/1 in the next

Slattsy

An Saighdiur

Harry Angstrom

Slattsy wrote: »

An Saighdiur

Feckin English commentators can never pronounce that properly.

droidman123

droidman123

Sam sharp @ 11/1 in the next at Newbury.

droidman123

3rd one in my lucky 15 coming up at chepstow.....tinker time......50/1 outsider!!!

Colonel Sanders

Massive gamble on Caesar Milan here

Slattsy

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Massive gamble on Caesar Milan here

Got 2's - here's hoping.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Massive gamble on Caesar Milan here

And the winner was a huge drifter

Very disappointing from Caeser Milan there.

Harry Angstrom

Evidence of Channel 4 dumbing down there. Rishi Persad was quick to correct himself from saying "maiden" to "minor race" :rolleyes:

Slattsy

Brutal!

Backed Johann Strauss here. Hoping Century wins by 12 lengths. Backed it again for Derby there 25/1

ft9

CENTURY CENTURY CENTURY!!!

Oscars Well.

Went for Somewhat

Harry Angstrom

Kingston Hill to do the business.

Slattsy

Alarming drift on Century - me no likey.

Slattsy

Anyone want to buy a few Century Derby slips?? :pac:

Harry Angstrom

GO ON YA GOOD THING!

Johner

Good performance by the winner, what an awful Racing Post Trophy though.

Itziger

Did Century lose a leg or what?

UrbanSea

Itziger wrote: »

Did Century lose a leg or what?

Think he hated the ground didn't go a yard

walrusgumble

Good run by Murtagh's horse for a place. Pleased enough with that. Next season is going to be big for Varian.likeable jockey too.