Saturday 11th October 2013

Slattsy

Wont be around tomorrow to get involved in the forum, so i've had to do all my bets tonight (which i cant say i particularly like doing) but it has to be done.

I've focused on the big day at Newmarket. So I'll keep it short and sweet, but all these should win quite easily.

2.05 - Lockwood (I think Fiesolana is the danger as Darwin probably overhyped)
2.35 - Sudirman (Best form on offer and again facing an O'Brien horse that is priced up on the stable and not form)
3.10 - Outstrip (Taking on O'Brien again but really like the Godolphin horse who i think has a serious turn of foot and could take the beating here, though War Command commands serious respect but just siding with Outstrip as he'll handle softer conditions better)
3.50 - Oriental Fox (Murtagh on a Saturday = €€€€€€€€€)
Also like Recession Proof each way at 20's - Conor King on board is interesting.

All in all, on another day i'd probably have the Ballydoyle horses backed in doubles and trebles all over the shop, so anyone reading should back them with me deserting them.

ste2010

Just shat all over your post by setting up another Saturday thread apologies for that! On sudirman myself and noticed the Connor king booking. Was 30's this morning I think but what an open race. My lord over 30 runners in a flat race

Slattsy

ste2010 wrote: »

Just shat all over your post by setting up another Saturday thread apologies for that! On sudirman myself and noticed the Connor king booking. Was 30's this morning I think but what an open race. My lord over 30 runners in a flat race

Niiiiiiiiiiiiice

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

Niiiiiiiiiiiiice

It was all accidental!

sting60

Shrapnel.Is a horse thats needs more than 2m but he is a serious horse now going chasing.He is a monster of a horse who needs a trip. I think he is a superstar in the making.

SRFC

sting60 wrote: »

Shrapnel.Is a horse thats needs more than 2m but he is a serious horse now going chasing.He is a monster of a horse who needs a trip. I think he is a superstar in the making.

Are you on the drink mate?

sting60

SRFC wrote: »

Are you on the drink mate?

WHY DO YOU SAY WITH YOUR LIMITED KNOWLEDGE.

the groutch

Darwin & Sudirman in the first two at Newmarket
2:20 York - Seussical (first run for Luca Cumani)
small bets on Domination & Recession Proof (e/w) in the Ceasarwich

sting60

SRFC wrote: »

Are you on the drink mate?

Have looked at your posts and you like to underestimate other posters without credit.

mailburner

I'm on short squeeze at 6s (ladb) 5.25nm

went big on him two weeks back and he couldnt have done
it any easier, got 9/4 fri night, won at evens so it'll be interesting
to see how the market speaks tomorrow
big step up but I think this is a horse going places

UrbanSea

Urban's picks to raise dicks


Kelvingrove 4.25 York 6/1

Lightly raced Hurricane Run gelding that is a horse really going places as he has been stepped up in trip, hacking up in his last two races. He had three starts at two in mile maidens, running well in all of them without being too close to winning, finishing a seven lengths third first time out at Newmarket, and ran better than his two finishing positions suggested at Kempton after. Returned to racing at three in handicaps off a mark of 74, finishing last of six first time out at Yarmouth over 10 furlongs (well backed), but only ran okay next start at Haydock stepped up to a mile and a half back in maiden company.

Showed his true colours next time out however back in a handicap upped to 1 ¾ miles at Yarmouth off a mark of 70, backed as if defeat was out of the question to hack up by 16 lengths, and confirmed that run to be no fluke next time out stepped up to two miles on softer ground at the same track off a mark of 80, racing keenly to comfortably win by 3 lengths, with a further 18 lengths back to the third horse. 8 pounds rise for that looks fair and he clearly has stamina in abundance and looks good value each way here to continue the progress. Whilst this is a better race, plenty come here out of form and with huge stamina doubts, and a 12lb three year old weight allowance is sure to come in handy. He must be high on the shortlist here.

Lockwood 2.05 Newmarket 9/2

This is a trappy enough but decent group 2, but think this Godolphin gelding is on an upward curve and hopefully he can continue his good form tomorrow in a hotter race. French trained at two and three, he broke his maiden tag at the third time of asking over this trip in a conditions race in April 2012 and proved himself a smart horse that year, not seeing out the mile trip next time out before gaining his first taste of black type next time out back over 6 furlongs, landing a Group 3 on soft ground at Maisons Laffitte.

Found the step up to Gr.1 company too hot to handle next time out in the Prix Maurice de Gheest behind Moonlight Cloud, and was a bit disappointing when only midfield in a gr.3 at Longchamp next time out. Ran in a trio of handicaps at Meydan over the winter, running well without winning, but took his form to a new level this year since he was switched back to turf with another year on his back, finishing runner up to stable mate French Navy at Windsor in June after six months off, holding every chance until well into the final furlong of the mile trip.

Proved this seven furlong trip is his best since, winning a Conditions race at Thirsk over seven next time out, before taking a 7 furlong Goodwood Gr.3, showing a good turn of foot in a competitive field (Libranno well held). Ran his best race yet when runner up to the smart filly Vitzoria in a Gr.2 at Doncaster last time out on ground that may well have been softer than ideal. Gets better ground tomorrow and he should run his race once again, with Darwin feared dropped back down in trip, though the Aussie Rules filly Fiesolana may be the biggest danger dropping down from Gr.1 company.

Fantastic Moon 5.25 Newmarket 33/1

Really open and competitive looking group 3 to finish off the Cesarewitch card, and a chance is taken on Jeremy Noseda’s unexposed three year old colt at a big price each way. He has disappointed this year, and I fancied him ante post for the Derby after being a really good two year old. He won a seven furlong novice stakes at Newmarket first time out at two on firm going in a race that looks like strong form, with the smart Godolphin colt Snowboarder in second having already had a run under his belt, as well as the subsequent Guineas third Glory Awaits in third, showing a good turn of foot and precociousness which is unusual for a Dalakhani (well backed too).

Confirmed that no fluke and built on that promise next time out at Sandown in a Group 3, looking to have been beaten before sprouting wings in the final furlong to finish strongly to deny Tha’ir on the line. Ran too badly to be true next time out when favourite for the Royal Lodge, and was sent to the Breeders Cup for the juvenile, finishing down the field behind George Vancouver.

Being a Dalakhani you could assume that the colt would only improve on what he had done at two, and whilst he has only had three starts this year, he has disappointed, first time out in the Classic Trial at Sandown when beaten near nine lengths by Sugar Boy, though didn’t run all that badly in the Gr.2 King Edward at Royal Ascot over 1 ½ mile in June shaping much better than the result suggests, seemingly not staying the trip having chased the leader before weakening in the final furlong. That said, he did take a step backward when he was down in trip last time out, finishing fourth of four.

He’s been given a three month break here and is given one more chance at huge odds, with the booking of William Buick a positive. That said it’s a wide open race and plenty have chances, including Afonso de Sousa dropped in trip having quickened well at Dundalk last month. He’s worth a small each way at big odds, though isn’t one for maximum faith.

the groutch

My eyes!!!

think Rossom might have hijacked Urban's account

UrbanSea

Someone said on another thread about horses being leased being useless, I'm pretty sure that filly Fiesolans is being leased she's won a nice amount this year and has a good chance in the first at Newmarket tomorrow

Harry Angstrom

It makes no sense running the Middle Park and The Dewhurst on the same day. Whoever came up with that idea should be shot.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Wont be around tomorrow to get involved in the forum, so i've had to do all my bets tonight (which i cant say i particularly like doing) but it has to be done.

I've focused on the big day at Newmarket. So I'll keep it short and sweet, but all these should win quite easily.

2.05 - Lockwood (I think Fiesolana is the danger as Darwin probably overhyped)
2.35 - Sudirman (Best form on offer and again facing an O'Brien horse that is priced up on the stable and not form)
3.10 - Outstrip (Taking on O'Brien again but really like the Godolphin horse who i think has a serious turn of foot and could take the beating here, though War Command commands serious respect but just siding with Outstrip as he'll handle softer conditions better)
3.50 - Oriental Fox (Murtagh on a Saturday = €€€€€€€€€)
Also like Recession Proof each way at 20's - Conor King on board is interesting.

All in all, on another day i'd probably have the Ballydoyle horses backed in doubles and trebles all over the shop, so anyone reading should back them with me deserting them.

Like Recession Proof too. Ran well in one of the strongest Supremes ever when 5th behind Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre & Cue Card. Been sidelined since but if he retains even the smallest fraction of ability and improves for his comeback run a month or so back, which he should do given the length of time he was off, he could be nicely handicapped.

rossom

3.30 York

Humidor 28/1

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Humidor has a big race in him and off a mark 99 with the excellent Thomas Brown taking a very handy 3lb off I'm hoping that he gains a richly deserved first success in over 2 years. George Baker's 6 year old sprinter is a very decent animal on his day and I think today's 6f trip at York with cut in the ground will be ideal for him today. A very admirable servant to connections, this 6 time winner's career highlight undoubtedly came when a strong finishing 4th in last years Nunthorpe whilst he was also an incredibly strong finishing 6th from an impossible position in the Group 2 King George's Stakes at Goodwood last year. Although he's winless in over 25 months, he seems to retain all his enthusiasm for the game. For the most part, Humidor has ran consistently well this season without quite making the frame and this well travelled individual looks to be on a very workable mark of 99 in this typically tough handicap. Having started off the year with an excellent 4th in Meydan over 6f off a mark of 109 back in March, Humidor returned to the UK with an very decent 2nd to the talented Spirit Quartz in a Conditions Race at Nottingham back in April. He then was sent to France for his next 2 starts when running very credibly on both occasions when a fast finishing 2L beaten 7th at Longchamp over 5f in a Group 3 and he was also beaten about the same distance in a Listed Race at Maisons-Laffittes back in June.

He was perhaps a little disappointing on at Goodwood and Leicester recently but neither were awful efforts either. He was staying on in the Stewards Cup (would never have been involved) when hampered off a mark of 104 last month and on the face of it he looked like he spurned a good opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure when only 3rd in a Conditions Race at Leicester. Sent off a 7/4 shot over 5f at Leicester on good to firm ground, Humidor was held out the back of the 5 runner field and he found the pace too quick for him before staying on to be a 2L beaten 3rd in a race that has worked out well. On his website the next day, George Baker says he needs it "proper soft" to be effective over the minimum trip these days and I definitely agree as he has been seen to run on strongly on many of his races over 5f on good ground. His final start came in the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 102 and having travelled very well he got absolutely no split at any stage as he came home a respectable 11th. Since that run, he was balloted out of the Prix De L'Abbaye last Sunday (a race in which he ran an excellent 7th last year) and he comes here off a mark of 99 that I know he is more than capable of being very competitive off this mark if getting the run of things. In today's contest, the excellent Thomas Brown (2-5 for yard, 2-2 owner) takes the ride and he is worth every ounce of his 3lb claim and Humidor has bagged a very decent draw in stall 20 given the middle to high numbers seemed to be advantageous today and although I'm not sure how soft the ground will be come race time I'm sure whatever ease prevalent will be suitable for Humidor. With trainer George Baker in excellent form at the moment and with Humidor running an excellent race on his only visit to the Knavesmir in last years Nunthorpe, if getting a charmed run through the field I expect a very big performance from this 6 year old and with only 7lb covering the entire field hopefully Humidor can gain a long overdue win at a great price of 28/1

rossom

3.50 Newmarket

Smoky Hill 10/1, Recession Proof 25/1 & Platinum 25/1

Given the incredibly open nature of the Cesarewitch's 36 runner field, I'm taking 3 against the field and hopefully all 3 can run big races with one of them grabbing the top prize. The first of which is Mikael Delzangles self proclaimed "well handicapped" Smoky Hill who makes his British and handicap debut off a mark of 91. A lightly raced and progressive 4 year old, Smoky Hill followed up a comfortable success at Maison-Laffittes over 12f with an excellent 4th in a Group 3 at Lonchamps over just shy of 2m last month where he looked an out and out stayer and given the first 2 home Domeside and Les Beaufs had previously won Group 2 and Group 1 races in France it makes the form look very pleasing and his mark of 91 look potentially very lenient. The extremely shrewd Delzangles has stated that he nearly ran him in the Group 1 Prix du Cadron on Arc day which I think says a lot about how he rates this Grey Colt and from an ok draw in stall 14 I think Smoky Hill looks an extremely live contender in this massive field marathon.

The second of the horses I like the look of is another fascinating contender in the shape of John Quinn's 7 year old Recession Proof who shaped quite well on his first start for 908 days at York last month, who looks potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 82 and for whom the booking of the outstanding Irish apprentice Connor King looks very significant. When trained by Simon Callaghan on the flat until 2010, Recession Proof was a pretty decent handicapper reaching a peak rating of 91 (winner off 88 on July course over 15f) but it wasn't until joining John Quinn and going over jumps before he really came into his own as he had an outstanding Novice Hurdle season in the 2010-2011 season. A winner of 3 hurdle races including the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy off a mark of 134, Recession Proof was last seen over hurdles running a blinding 5th in a brilliant renewal of the Supreme Hurdle back in 2011 and its very unfortunate that injury curtailed what look a really exciting national hunt prospect as he was absent for 2 and a half years before his belated return at York last month. Clearly desperately in need of the run and undoubtedly going to come on an absolute truck load for the outing, Recession Proof definitely shaped as if much of his ability remains and off a mark of 82 he could be a very well handicapped animal. Having bagged a brilliant draw in stall 3, Recession Proof represents the connections of last year's runner up Countrywide Flame who is also better known for his hurdling exploits and I think it is very telling that Recession Proof lines up here today given John Quinn clearly knows the type of horse to go close with in this race and the Irish born North Yorkshire based trainer has his horses in very good form at the moment. The booking of the brilliant 5lb claimer Connor King is ridiculously eye catching with the Irish apprentice coming over for this ride and when taking his allowance into account Recession Proof gets in at an absolute featherweight of just 7-11 - the joint lowest weight King has ridden at in the past 12 months. Although the dreaded bounce factor is a possibility just 32 days after his return from a long absence and he may well need another run or 2 to get him back to peak fitness, everything points to an absolutely huge run from Recession Proof today and if this 7 year old retains his ability of old then the 25/1 currently on offer could be made to look absolutely ridiculous come 4 O'Clock for this animal who will enjoy likely underfoot conditions.

The final of my 3 stabs at this minefield comes in the shape of Phil Kirby's 6 year old Platinum who is in the form of his life and I think he looks unjustly forgotten in the market at 25/1 in search of a 4 timer under a 4lb penalty. Talented when trained on the flat in France for Andre Fabre, Platinum came to Phil Kirby after a brief stint with Rebecca Curtis in 2011 and it hasn't been until very recently that quickly rising star in dual purpose trainer Kirby has gotten the best out of this son of Azamour and he has landed a hat trick in fine style. After winning at Catterick back in August off a mark of 79, Platinum ran out a convincing winner over 2m at Musselburgh off 81 later that month and his improvement showed no signs of stopping when landing the Old Borough Cup at Haydock last month. Off a mark of 90 and under today's regular pilot Russ Kennemore, Platinum ran out a convincing winner of that valuable prize over 14f at Haydock by 1.25L and he was definitely more value for his margin of victory as he was well in control at the finish. Directly behind him that day were the reopposing Clowance Estate and current favourite Pallastor and although the latter is likely to improve for that first run in a year I think the astronomical price disparity is ridiculous given that there is only a 4lb pull between the rivals. Racing here under a 4lb penalty, Platinum is undoubtedly in the form of his life and although the draw in stall 21 could have been kinder he still looks like a horse who the handicapper has not caught up with yet and if a little younger and hailing from a more illustrious stable there is no doubt he'd be a much shorter price. Although not guaranteed to stay the 18f trip, the rain fall should definitely help Platinum and I'm hoping for a big run from him at a 25/1 price tag that I think is a vast misrepresentation of his chances.

rossom

5.45 Chepstow

Ace High 11/1

Victor Dartnall's extremely lightly raced 9 year old has had just 8 starts to date and having ran a blinder in this race last year after a similar absence when 3rd under top weight off a 6lb higher mark I'm hoping he can go two better here today and score today under Jack Doyle. A horse whose clearly had his issues and looks a tough training task, Ace High looked an extremely exciting prospect when routing the talented pair of Duke Of Lucca (reopposes today) and subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Teaforthree over C+D back in October 2011 in a Begginers Chase and its unfortunate he's only had 2 runs since then. The first of those subsequent outings came in last years renewal of this contest when Ace High ran an absolute blinder from the front under top weight from a 6lb higher mark from 142 in a race that has worked out really well. Travelling into the long home straight, Ace High was comfortably travelling the best of all but his welter burden of 11-12 seemed to take effect as he faded to finish a very respectable 5.5L beaten 3rd. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Lost Glory, who came into the contest on the back of an easy win at Stratford, subsequently scoring this year off a 4lb higher mark whilst the 4th and 5th home Harouet and Golden Chieftain both scored on their next outings to give the form a really good look. Ace High's last run came at Ascot in a Grade 3 handicap last November when sent off a well backed 4/1 favourite but he never went a yard that day and was disappointingly pulled up and you've got to put a line through that run and given his long absence something may well have been wrong with him. Kindly dropped 6lb by the handicapper, Ace High looks on a very workable mark of 136 judged on his run in this last year and coming here on the back of a very similar absence I think he looks primed for a very big showing. Having had to shoulder top weight last year, Ace High has a much nicer racing weight of 11 stone today which should definitely help him in the closing stages. Seen at best effect when going from the front, I'm slightly concerned that Ace High looks likely to face opposition for the lead but he certainly didn't crawl along from the front last year in this contest and it would be great, although unlikely, if he got an easy time of things at the head of the field. With the light rain forecast, Ace High looks like having his ideal conditions of good to soft ground and having run a blinder in this last year off a 6lb higher mark just 2 starts ago I'm hoping this time around this 9 year old can go to better to score on what will be just his 9th career start.

UrbanSea

A lot of people like Recession Proof I was looking at him myself but this is a tough tough ask

UrbanSea

I hate when Ladbrokes are the shortest price on an O'Brien horse and people say ''ooooh they must know'' :rolleyes: it's because they're a woeful bookie and are rarely top price on any horse, 4/5 on War Command when you can get 6/5

MoscowFlyer

Court By Surprise - 5.45 Chepstow.

Emma Lavelle and Aidan Coleman teaming up on this one. Already being backed and I tend to follow Emma's horse early in the season as she usually has them going well. If you see one of her horses around the top of the market for the rest of this month then it may be worth backing.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

mailburner

Backed platinum last night also at 25s
couldn't understand also why it was that much bigger
than the prescott horse

ste2010

All over the 16-1 on offer for Pistol in the handicap hurdle at Chepstow. Completely unexposed, and progression will be found given the little number of runs. Personally i think for somes horses Cheltenham comes to soon and they are not ready for it maturity wise. Hoping that with the Hobbs yard firing that pistol will give me enough spondooleys to buy a life time supply of bum slapping bats and recyclable zip masks. All over it EW on Bet365 EP offer.
Nicholls always sends a good fleet to this meeting and has won the first race 3 out of 6 over the last 6 years with mostly French recruits. Last years winner was far west. He has another frenchie lines up tomorrow and will take a punt on this one

ste2010

Today's trebatron
Highbury high 6-1 Hexham 2.45
Keltus 10/11 Chepstow 2.25
Easter Day 2-1 Chepstow 4.15

Johner

York 1.50 - Butterfly McQueen 6/1

Newmarket 2.35 -Great White Eagle 5/2

Newmarket 4.55 - Safety Check 13/2

All should win on the bridle.

STB

Cesarewitch @ 3.50 Newmarket

E/w money for Recession Proof. No doubt that the find of the season in Ireland has been CRK a booking that catches my eye too. 33s in 22. However, Chiberta King is a massive e/w price at 25/1 with another top newcomer in Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

Domination is drifting like a barge. This is not something typical of a fancied Byrnes horse.

Corl Sprint @ 3.30 York

Baccarat being backed (9/1 into 7/1) as is Louis the Pious (14-1 - 11-1) both behind Highland Colori in the Ayr Gold Cup. Louis the Pious ran a cracker in that race. But for me An Saighduir is the one to be on, narrowly beaten in the Silver Cup, perhaps another weekend TV winner for Declan McDonagh.

Pinesky

Owner henry ponsonby was quite bullish on First Mohican at York

brandon_flowers

Anyone know roughly what time today PP offer odds on tomorrow's racing? Want to do a ew double on English and Irish Cesarewitch but no go for the moment.

I'd take the SP just to have the bet on.

Rock Lesnar

stuck O'Briens 1st 3 runners in newmarket in an accumalator with Domination in the cesarewitch.

Also backed First Mohican and Domination in single bets

ft9

brandon_flowers wrote: »

Anyone know roughly what time today PP offer odds on tomorrow's racing? Want to do a ew double on English and Irish Cesarewitch but no go for the moment.

Just back today's runner and if it wins all onto tomorrow's one. Which I bet you won't do if the first wins.

Pinesky

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

stuck O'Briens 1st 3 runners in newmarket in an accumalator with Domination in the cesarewitch.

Also backed First Mohican and Domination in single bets

those bets seem like the "logical" ones today

Itziger

Put a shmall bit on Lockwood, GWE, War Comm and Chiberta King. All to come home in front. Few bob left in PP account so said I'd have a bit of fun.

droidman123

Anyone know why Darwin is a nonrunner?

jimjamcos

droidman123 wrote: »

Anyone know why Darwin is a nonrunner?

Ground, I'd guess.

droidman123

jimjamcos wrote: »

Ground, I'd guess.

Has the going really changed that much at Newmarket since yesterday?

UrbanSea

Good to soft yeah

jimjamcos

droidman123 wrote: »

Has the going really changed that much at Newmarket since yesterday?

It's good to soft. Doubt Darwin wanted soft in description.

Johner

Has Joesph ever done an interview without thanking The Tabors, Smiths and Magniers.

droidman123

Good shout urban

UrbanSea

She is a nice filly

UrbanSea

droidman123 wrote: »

Good shout urban

I liked Lockwood just said she was the danger :pac: didn't back him in the end only backed Kellingrove

droidman123

Backed according to script in the next at hexam, took 7/1.

Johner

No doubt Dettori will fall out of that wheelchair.

droidman123

droidman123 wrote: »

Backed according to script in the next at hexam, took 7/1.

Dire

Panrich

Hope Davy Condon is ok after that fall. It was a right purler.

brandon_flowers

ft9 wrote: »

Just back today's runner and if it wins all onto tomorrow's one. Which I bet you won't do if the first wins.

Many times its happened before my dear man. Too many in fact.

Pinesky

Johner wrote: »

Has Joesph ever done an interview without thanking The Tabors, Smiths and Magniers. [/quotei
If they were making me the highest earning 20 year old in the country id be thanking them too.

Howjoe1

The winner of the 2.15 Hexham

Streams of Whiskey 9/1

Appropriately named one on the day The Pogues Philip Chevron was buried.

droidman123

Great white eagle.....more like great white elephant

Luap

Neil Callan riding out of his skin.