Cheltenham Ante Post

SRFC

With the NH season slowly but surely upon us anybody got any early fancies for the Festival 2014?

Im going to build an ante post portfolio this season hopefully a few winners at decent prices.


For the supreme im taking the 20s for faugheen might go to one of the other novice races but ill be taking a chance with a small bet at 20s and a bet on Hendersons supposed machine West Wizard at 16s


The Arkle I fancy Champagne to make all but at 8s ill leave it be probably have a small bet on DEFY LOGIC if I get a big price,the 25s on Rebel Fitz is bigger than I expected tbh.


Quevega at 5/4 is nailed on as usual.


the rsa im having a few quid on Un Atout and African Gold at 16 and 20/1.

jimjamcos

Annie Power Annie Power Annie Power


Willie was asked about her on attheraces last week and nearly wet himself talking about her. Could barely hide his excitement. Said the plan was to go chasing but that she's so good that they're going stick to hurdles.

I'll be backing her wherever she goes and have already had a small nibble on her for Champion Hurdle with BetVictor NRFB.


Defy Logic, Un Atout, African Gold and Rule The World will all be worth following over fences.

Faugheen for Supreme? He lived up to the hype in his bumper win.

2 wildcards would be Mossey Joe and Rival Destruval in the Foxhunters. Apparently owners have already sounded out O'Connor to ride the latter.

mr.jingle

Sizing Europe at 40's for the Champion Chase. If anything were to happen to SS that could look a massive price. Obviously wouldn't like to see anything happen to the machine.

African Gold at 20's the RSA. Looks like a serious chaser in the making, last year was just a bonus what he done over hurdles NTD said and he would take to fences like a duck to water despite that he ran some very nice races at Cheltenham and Aintree and 20/1 at this stage could be big come March

Slattsy

Gonna put a score on Sprinter Sacre each week from now until March

Seriously, whatever race your mate says Annie Power will be aimed at i'd be interested in taking AP prices on her. (thought she might go chasing)

Jezki is my Champion Hurdle horse.

Rule the World is another i'll keep an eye on at 25s for the RSA.

If Big Bucks comes back 100% the current 4/1 is a gift. Its possible he'll run in the Cleeve in Jan so could be worth a chance. (Monksland at 20/1 is one i like also here)

jimjamcos

mr.jingle wrote: »

Sizing Europe at 40's for the Champion Chase. If anything were to happen to SS that could look a massive price. Obviously wouldn't like to see anything happen to the machine.

African Gold at 20's the RSA. Looks like a serious chaser in the making, last year was just a bonus what he done over hurdles NTD said and he would take to fences like a duck to water despite that he ran some very nice races at Cheltenham and Aintree and 20/1 at this stage could be big come March

Even Sizing @ 20/1 for Ryanair seems reasonable value to me. Although in his twilight days, he made SS work as hard as any horse has at Punchestown and we know he loves Cheltenham. With a brilliant handler who will keep him fresh, he's bound to go for one last famous win at the festival rather than face the beast again. Cue Card will be hard bet but Sizing will match him for jumping, just a question of whether he's still got it in the tank.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Gonna put a score on Sprinter Sacre each week from now until March

Seriously, whatever race your mate says Annie Power will be aimed at i'd be interested in taking AP prices on her. (thought she might go chasing)

Jezki is my Champion Hurdle horse.

Rule the World is another i'll keep an eye on at 25s for the RSA.

If Big Bucks comes back 100% the current 4/1 is a gift. Its possible he'll run in the Cleeve in Jan so could be worth a chance. (Monksland at 20/1 is one i like also here)

What you make of French horse, Gemix, who trounced Solwhit and them in French Champion Hurdle? Looked a nice animal

I wouldn't be sure Rule The World will go for RSA. Can see a similar situation to a couple of years back with FL and SDC with Rule The World going Jewson and Un Atout going RSA. Russell was comparing Un Atout to Sir Des Champs last season and saying how he'll make his name over 3 mile (Actually said he'd be better than Sir Des Champs IIRC). I think Rule The World has that bit more toe than Un Atout as shown by his entry in 2 miler at Punchestown at end of last season. The pair might make a nice each-way double though!

Slattsy

jimjamcos wrote: »

What you make of French horse that trounced Solwhit and them in French Champion Hurdle? Looked a nice animal

Hard to know if it will even go to Cheltenham.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Hard to know if it will even go to Cheltenham.

Yep, that's true.

Harry Angstrom

It seems that the only race where Annie Power isn't quoted for a price is next year's Boat Race.

brandon_flowers

Rebel Fitz should go over Arkle course and distance in 10 days time and Mick Winters reckons 2 miles is the optimum trip so more likely to be in that than the Jewson. If you like ante post betting then 25's is a massive price. The only concern would be soft ground and then he won't go.

Sprinter Sacre should be in every double from here to next March.

I'm going to have some small money e/w on Minella Foru for the Supreme Novices, was very impressed how he won in Listowel even if Eddie Harty is a bit coy over his future prospects.

I think Our Conor is a lay at 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle for the time being until we see him out again. Would love to be wrong as despite the names I called him as a jockey Barry Connell deserves to get something from the horse having put so much on the table for him.

Colonel Sanders

I actually got Annie Power added to the Betfair Champion Hurdle list last spring. Stuck a few small bets up at fancy prices but nobody was biting so I took them down. Looking at the graph I'd have got at least some of it matched had I left it which is quite frustrating to say the least!

Morgans

brandon_flowers wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre should be in every double from here to next March.

even if he does win, please dont take this advice.

Ante post multiples (6 months away) are one of the most silly bets, ante post multiples including a 1/2 shot is simply being greedy. The same advice could have been given about Big Bucks last year. Take the single and be happy if it wins. Dont be looking to multiple your winnings by 1.5.

There is worse value out there than Sprinter Sacre but only as a big single.

Morgans

think that the ante post markets have been ruined. There are very few certainties anymore regarding what horses will end up in what races.

West Wizard looked like a proper animal to me that day at Kempton. Looked all speed and all over a Supreme type. 16/1 is bigger than you'd expect. Given connections, if he dots up , beating trees in his opening race, he will shorten automatically into 6/1.

Overthelast

brandon_flowers wrote: »

Rebel Fitz should go over Arkle course and distance in 10 days time and Mick Winters reckons 2 miles is the optimum trip so more likely to be in that than the Jewson.

Barry Geraghty was interviewed on Sunday - said 2.5miles optimum trip.

kfallon

Nothing will get near Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup, only injury can stop him.

Fill your boots at 3/1 or 11/4

Johner

Going to do these soon NRFB,

Grandouet at 10/1 for the Arkle
Big Bucks at 3/1 for the World Hurdle

And then African Gold at 20/1 for the RSA.

hucklebuck

The Ryanair could be a hot one but at the moment I think Bailey Green is worth a few bob at 20/1 and he sees his races out well so I dont think the trip will be an issue.

Cue Card might be stepped up and Simonsig might run in the Champion, without these he will take a hell of a lot of beating imo.

SRFC

Johner wrote: »

Going to do these soon NRFB,

Grandouet at 10/1 for the Arkle
Big Bucks at 3/1 for the World Hurdle

And then African Gold at 20/1 for the RSA.

Read somewhere Grandouet stays hurdling.

brandon_flowers

Morgans wrote: »

even if he does win, please dont take this advice.

Ante post multiples (6 months away) are one of the most silly bets, ante post multiples including a 1/2 shot is simply being greedy. The same advice could have been given about Big Bucks last year. Take the single and be happy if it wins. Dont be looking to multiple your winnings by 1.5.

There is worse value out there than Sprinter Sacre but only as a big single.

I can see what you are saying but I don't think it is greedy, if you are betting for greed then it is time to stop betting.

My theory (and it is only a theory) is putting €100 win ante post on a 5/1 shot returns €500 plus stake or putting €50 double on the 5/1 shot plus SS at 1/2 returns €400 plus stake. So you have 80% of the prize for 50% of the stake. OK you have two horses but if the 5/1 shot doesn't run or is beat you still have another €50 to bet with. To make the same return on SS you would be laying down €800/€1000 which is mental betting ante post.

Save the big singles for the NRNB.

SRFC

Your basically getting 1/2 SS shows up free money imo you can use big bucks all you want as a reason not to but big bucks followers are well up on previous seasons lumping on.

Morgans

brandon_flowers wrote: »

I can see what you are saying but I don't think it is greedy, if you are betting for greed then it is time to stop betting.

My theory (and it is only a theory) is putting €100 win ante post on a 5/1 shot returns €500 plus stake or putting €50 double on the 5/1 shot plus SS at 1/2 returns €400 plus stake. So you have 80% of the prize for 50% of the stake. OK you have two horses but if the 5/1 shot doesn't run or is beat you still have another €50 to bet with. To make the same return on SS you would be laying down €800/€1000 which is mental betting ante post.

Save the big singles for the NRNB.

This makes no sense from an ante post selection. I stand by the original statement. If Sprinter Sacre doesnt run, all your ante post bets are lost.

brandon_flowers

OK all ante posts bets.

Punter A puts €50 on SS and a 5/1 shot double, and €50 single on 5/1 shot.

Punter B puts €100 win on 5/1 shot.

Punter C puts €1000 on SS at 1/2.

And you are telling me that Punter C is in the best position of the three, getting the best value ante post?

Jayo11780

kfallon wrote: »

Nothing will get near Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup, only injury can stop him.

Fill your boots at 3/1 or 11/4

In fairness I think that it would take a fair achievement for BW to retain the Gold Cup in 2014... Is he that classy to do so? I'm not so sure.. 3/1 is a bit skinny this early in the day!
For me Silviniaco Conti at 8/1 is an absolute steal and will be the horse to beat in Gold Cup next year.

Hurricane Fly will still be the one to beat in Champion hurdle, Although My Tent or Yours (Might have won it this year if he was entered) could push him all the way - & dont forget Our Conor will need to improve at least a stone to be competitive in Champion

byronbay2

kfallon wrote: »

Nothing will get near Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup, only injury can stop him.

Fill your boots at 3/1 or 11/4

That's a very dangerous game, when it comes to The Gold Cup. Lots of great horses have looked like world-beaters when winning the race (I'm thinking of Burrough Hill Lad, Jodami, Imperial Call, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander, among others) but none could go and repeat the dose the following year. It is the most gruelling race of the year and takes a hell of a lot out of the winner. Last season, in particular, was a terrible "slog in a bog" and while I love BW (and made a good few few quid on him last March), he would be a definite Lay for me at that price.

Only Best Mate, in my racing lifetime (almost 40 years), has won consecutive Gold Cups and that (imo) was due to facing the weakest opposition of any returning winner and being raced very sparingly by his cagey trainer - a wise strategy, if all you care about is the Gold Cup.


To be honest, backing any horse (with the possible exception of SS) at 3/1 in October for a race being run the following March does not seem like a good idea to me. See this thread:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=83228564

Harry Angstrom

I couldn't have Big Bucks for The Stayers. They rarely come back. At Fishers Cross at 4/1 is the one to be on.

kfallon

byronbay2 wrote: »

That's a very dangerous game, when it comes to The Gold Cup. Lots of great horses have looked like world-beaters when winning the race (I'm thinking of Burrough Hill Lad, Jodami, Imperial Call, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander, among others) but none could go and repeat the dose the following year. It is the most gruelling race of the year and takes a hell of a lot out of the winner. Last season, in particular, was a terrible "slog in a bog" and while I love BW (and made a good few few quid on him last March), he would be a definite Lay for me at that price.

Only Best Mate, in my racing lifetime (almost 40 years), has won consecutive Gold Cups and that (imo) was due to facing the weakest opposition of any returning winner and being raced very sparingly by his cagey trainer - a wise strategy, if all you care about is the Gold Cup.


To be honest, backing any horse (with the possible exception of SS) at 3/1 in October for a race being run the following March does not seem like a good idea to me. See this thread:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=83228564

Last year's novices who will be stepping into Gold Cup company are pretty poor. He's already beaten the more established contenders even with an interrupted preparation.

I don't like backing returning 'Champions' at Cheltenham but I would make an exception for BW

As for taking 3/1 about him well somebody else mentioned backing Quevega at 5/4 for the Mares Hurdle!

Slattsy

Johner wrote: »

Going to do these soon NRFB,

Grandouet at 10/1 for the Arkle
Big Bucks at 3/1 for the World Hurdle

And then African Gold at 20/1 for the RSA.

With?

Oscars Well.

West Wizard in the Supreme 16/1. This is a hell of a horse from what they're saying.

African Gold in the RSA at 20/1.

Huntley

I would hope Silviniaco Conti runs in the King George.

Grandouet and MTOY look tailor made animals for the Arkle. The latter maybe has shown enough to merit a crack at the Champion. Pretty sure I earmarked Rebel Fitz almost two years ago on here as one to look out for but he isn't grade 1 quality.

Would be keen on Zarkandar for the World Hurdle.

Morgans

brandon_flowers wrote: »

OK all ante posts bets.

Punter A puts €50 on SS and a 5/1 shot double, and €50 single on 5/1 shot.

Punter B puts €100 win on 5/1 shot.

Punter C puts €1000 on SS at 1/2.

And you are telling me that Punter C is in the best position of the three, getting the best value ante post?

If you fancy 5/1 shot and 1/2 shot to win at Cheltenham in March, and you think that their price will be a lot shorter on the day, then I suggest you back both in singles. Whatever staking plan you want to use, is up to yourself.

Ante post has completely changed in the last five years for a few reasons.

1) strength of markets on the day mean that often ante post prices dont represent as much value as they used to.
2) the new races increases options and makes ante post betting a greater risk
3) bookies love people who do multiples, and especially ante post multiples. If you fancy 5/1 winner at the festival and SS breaks down at some stage of the season, why rob yourself of the 5/1 winner to make it into a 7.5/1 winner.

Back the two "winners" in singles will be the best way to win longterm. While it was Big Bucks last year, there were discussions this time in years gone by where Master Minded was past the post for his third QM.

madmoose

So far i have

30 win on at fisher cross 9/2.
15ew on the new one 8/1 champion hurdle.
10ew on african gold 20/1 rsa.
20 on bobs worth 3/1 gold cup.

Yankie on c.fever, cuecard, at fishers cross and bobs worth.

Ive also got 75ew on dynaste for the kg at 7/1.

Will keep topping up bets and im looking at mossey joe at 7/1 for the foxhunters.

premierstone

kfallon wrote: »

As for taking 3/1 about him well somebody else mentioned backing Quevega at 5/4 for the Mares Hurdle!

Apples and oranges tbf and Quevega has shown She can come back year after year, Bobs Worth had an interupted prep last year and is far less likley to get there in one piece never mind the respective differences in depth of the two races.

Backing anything antepost less than double figures is a short cut to the poor house IMO.

brandon_flowers

But surely you can see my point that laying out €100 as punter A is a far better option than €1000 as Punter C for the same return? And Punter C will more than likely still get 1/2 closer to the day on SS anyway.

As Punter A if you lose the double and the 5/1 comes in you still have a 4/1 winner for your original two stakes.

That is what I meant by putting him in every double. Maybe I didn't make the original point correctly. I'm not advocating every punter to change their single bets to doubles, merely if you are doing a double, and only a double then SS is one horse to have in it with any other.

Johner

SRFC wrote: »

Read somewhere Grandouet stays hurdling.

Saw that alright but still hope he'll go chasing, he has all the ability to win a champion hurdle but his opportunity was last season, it will be much tougher this year and I think chasing would be a better option. Would really love to see him jump a fence.

Morgans

brandon_flowers wrote: »

But surely you can see my point that laying out €100 as punter A is a far better option than €1000 as Punter C for the same return? And Punter C will more than likely still get 1/2 closer to the day on SS anyway.

As Punter A if you lose the double and the 5/1 comes in you still have a 4/1 winner for your original two stakes.

That is what I meant by putting him in every double. Maybe I didn't make the original point correctly. I'm not advocating every punter to change their single bets to doubles, merely if you are doing a double, and only a double then SS is one horse to have in it with any other.

Sprinter Sacre is beyond doubt the easiest to call winner. I wouldnt put any ante post doubles down. Like the yankee bet that a poster mentioned above (and I am aware that it is a bit of fun) but one horse gets injured and half the bet is lost.

Think the premium that used to be there for betting ante post is long gone. For me, to bet on Bob's Worth at this stage, a strong favourite for the Gold Cup in my book, I would think that to make it worth my while at 3/1, he would have to go off on the day something like 11/8. He may do, but I'd take 2/1 on the day all day ahead of backing him at 3/1 now. Even 7/4. There has to be a chance that he will start close to 3/1 on the day.

kfallon

premierstone wrote: »

Apples and oranges tbf and Quevega has shown She can come back year after year, Bobs Worth had an interupted prep last year and is far less likley to get there in one piece never mind the respective differences in depth of the two races.

Backing anything antepost less than double figures is a short cut to the poor house IMO.

Eh Bob's Worth has come back year after year also and won at 3 consecutive festivals, in fact he's never lost a race at any meeting staged at Cheltenham that he's ran in!

You are in the lap of the Gods with any ante post bet as regards the horse picking up an injury during the season.

premierstone

kfallon wrote: »

Eh Bob's Worth has come back year after year also and won at 3 consecutive festivals, in fact he's never lost a race at any meeting staged at Cheltenham that he's ran in!

You are in the lap of the Gods with any ante post bet as regards the horse picking up an injury during the season.

Again though you are not comparing like with like, Quevega has comeback to the same race, a mares hurdle to boot, not a GC - I wouldn't touch either at the prices tbh and pretty much doubt that BW will be any significantly shorter when they go NRNB.

Panrich

brandon_flowers wrote: »

But surely you can see my point that laying out €100 as punter A is a far better option than €1000 as Punter C for the same return? And Punter C will more than likely still get 1/2 closer to the day on SS anyway.

As Punter A if you lose the double and the 5/1 comes in you still have a 4/1 winner for your original two stakes.

That is what I meant by putting him in every double. Maybe I didn't make the original point correctly. I'm not advocating every punter to change their single bets to doubles, merely if you are doing a double, and only a double then SS is one horse to have in it with any other.

Punter A will have (1) A Losing double and (2) €50 at 5/1=€300 return so his 5/1 becomes a 2/1 on his original investment should SS fail to show up.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

Saw that alright but still hope he'll go chasing, he has all the ability to win a champion hurdle but his opportunity was last season, it will be much tougher this year and I think chasing would be a better option. Would really love to see him jump a fence.

The fecker can hardly get over a hurdle let alone a fence :pac:

Panrich

Gringo180 wrote: »

The fecker can hardly get over a hurdle let alone a fence :pac:

Horses are funny beasts though. I remember Desert Orchid nearly killing himself in a horrible fall over hurdles and he went on to be one of the greatest jumpers of a fence ever.

Gringo180

Panrich wrote: »

Horses are funny beasts though. I remember Desert Orchid nearly killing himself in a horrible fall over hurdles and he went on to be one of the greatest jumpers of a fence ever.

I know man I am just been sarcastic, I agree that he could be a totally different animal over larger obstacles and should be switched as I just don't think he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle.

Overthelast

madmoose wrote: »

So far i have

30 win on at fisher cross 9/2.
15ew on the new one 8/1 champion hurdle.
10ew on african gold 20/1 rsa.
20 on bobs worth 3/1 gold cup.

Yankie on c.fever, cuecard, at fishers cross and bobs worth.

Ive also got 75ew on dynaste for the kg at 7/1.

Will keep topping up bets and im looking at mossey joe at 7/1 for the foxhunters.

Thats €250+ in ante post bets & we've barely started the season. Why not just put the 250+ down on the day to WIN outright on a horse you really fancy - waiting for it if necessary, be it in the Hennessy, King George or whatever. Surely a better strategy than to keep toppoing up these AP bets. Madness Moose. Madness I say!!

madmoose

I dont mind mate as im topping each week i dont mind risking a few quid but if i put 250 on race on the day id be sick mentally if i lost it. Get me? I done well last year on a.post chelt bets but i started
In december last year rather than september. Just gotta be lucky like i was last year when i didnt have darlan and big bucks for example.

For that kg id be confident at dynaste heading there so i like the 7/1 as he could be 7/2 on the day when most horses are scratched from the list.

Gringo180

Just looking at the betting for the Gold Cup, one who looks overpriced is Al Ferof, step up to 3+ miles could really bring the best out in him. 20/1.

Overthelast

Fair enough. I'll stick a fancy for the rsa here at the end of the month.

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

Backing anything antepost less than double figures is a short cut to the poor house IMO.

I used to have this view but year on year I got burned by big price fancies, last year Go Native died, Imperial Commander caught a cold and my only big priced winner was Solwhit who could have fallen apart before March.

Like Morgans says Ante Post has changed massively with the extra races and bookies trying to cut each others throats on the day/ nrnb a couple of weeks before.

Two horses I remember investing heavily ante post on were Barizan at 33 for The Triumph and For Non Stop for this years Ryanair at 33. After backing these in October time Barizan was available at the same price and FNS opened not far off the 33 on the morning.

I will have the odd ante post this year but all will be speculative/smart akin to Baily Green ew for Ryanair and Simonsig ew NRFB at 4/1 for the Champion.

Here are the CC possibilities as I see it:

1) SS doesnt make it, Simonsig should win
2) SS wins I will get my money back as Simonsig should place
3) Simonsig doesnt run, money back
4) Simonsig wins and boom, in the gravy

Last year I only had 150 blips to punt due to family commitments so NRFB is an excellent way of ensuring you have money for the festival. A bank might give you 1% interest but if the horse shortens 1/2 point or less you are in the same position.

SRFC

Briar Hill not one to be forgotten about either Having backed him in his bumper he has a serious engine big galloper devours that hill can see him maybe in the Albert Barlett or Neptune instead of the supreme.

rossom

No point in having any money on Mossey Joe at the moment.

Current owner is selling him due to a dispute with his sister (they were in the courts) and its all very much up in the air with him. Will probably move trainer and Foxhunters may not even be in the offing.

I personally think he deserves a crack at a decent race away from Hunter Chasing but no clue if that will happen.

If he turns up in the Foxhunters and jumps round clean he will not be beaten.

rossom

SRFC wrote: »

Briar Hill not one to be forgotten about either Having backed him in his bumper he has a serious engine big galloper devours that hill can see him maybe in the Albert Barlett or Neptune instead of the supreme.

Any news on Moyle Park SRFC? Heard he went for a walk on Betfair there recently which would indicate he may have had a setback.

SRFC

rossom wrote: »

Any news on Moyle Park SRFC? Heard he went for a walk on Betfair there recently which would indicate he may have had a setback.

No my mate usually goes down around this time of the year with Casey and gets a tour an that but he hasnt gone down yet so will find out what they have this season soon as he goes down.

rossom

SRFC wrote: »

No my mate usually goes down around this time of the year with Casey and gets a tour an that but he hasnt gone down yet so will find out what they have this season soon as he goes down.

Cheers SRFC.