October 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for October, the 1981-2010 average was 10.2 C (up from 10.1 in 1971-2000 and same as 10.2 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for October at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for October at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for six met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. You'll be asked to predict the maximum wind gust (in knots which are almost double km/hr) at five coastal locations and name which one has the highest wind gust. Sample answer 80 knots Belmullet. Form will guide you through the choices.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1


The five stations should be Malin, Belmullet, Mace Head, Valentia and Roches Point but go with the choices in the actual entry form if different from those.

I have to post this now because I am about to go off-line for 3-4 days.

deadline same as always, 0300h Wed 2nd October with 5 pts penalty per half day late after that.

Bsal

Done.

pauldry

Done

dasa29

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

Harps

Done

homolumo

done

can I change my gust prediction to 80 please?

mickger844posts

done

DOCARCH

Done

Joe Public

Done

nilhg

done

omicron

Done

Jpmarn

Done

Speak Now

Done.

rameire

done.

Tae laidir

Done

lostinashford

Done

delw

Done

traecy1

Done.

John mac

done, (this am )

Can I please change my max temp to 19.2 (from 17.2 )
Thanks
JOhn.

Just noticed i had the wrong username. johnmcc ... not john mac.

Rikand

Done

talkabout

Done

dacogawa

Done (late, apologies)

Tae laidir

20.3 in Shannon Airport yesterday with gust of 51 in Malin.
More rain fell yesterday (28.4) in Oak Park than the whole of September (24.4).
Could be an interesting month!

pauldry

21c in belmullet today
rainfall will be well above norm this month
temperatures mild though thankfully as need oil

M.T. Cranium

October 2013 contest entries
________________________________
________________________________


FORECASTER __________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Max Gust
______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium __________12.2 __ 20.1 __ --3.3 __ 105 __ 082 __ 56 Mace
Jpmarn _______________11.5 __ 21.8 __ --0.8 __ 180 __ 089 __ 70 Mal
Okla _____ (-10) ______ 11.3 __ 21.4 __ --1.2 __ 115 __ 091 __ 46 Mal
pauldry ______________ 11.3 __ 21.3 __ --2.3 __ 108 __ 093 __ 62 Bel
waterways ____________ 11.1 __ 21.7 __ --4.1 __ 087 __ 109 __ 56 Mace
Joe Public ____________ 10.9 __ 21.9 __ --3.9 __ 129 __ 079 __ 79 Bel
Harps _______________ 10.9 __ 20.9 __ --2.4 __ 110 __ 095 __ 63 Mal
Tae laidir ____________ 10.9 __ 20.7 __ --1.5 __ 132 __ 105 __ 66 Mal
Seafields _____________10.8 __ 17.5 __ --4.0 __ 150 __ 070 __ 90 RoPt
kindredspirit __________ 10.7 __ 20.5 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 095 __ 54 Bel
mickger844posts ______ 10.7 __ 20.2 __ --1.3 __ 110 __ 090 __ 50 Bel
Bsal ________________ 10.7 __ 20.1 __ --2.7 __ 089 __ 085 __63 Bel
Homolumo ___________ 10.7 __ 19.0 ___ 0.5 __ 110 __ 089 __ 80 RoPt
DOCARCH ____________ 10.6 __ 21.8 __ --2.3 __ 108 __ 092 __ 54 Mace
Dacogawa ___ (-5) ____ 10.6 __ 20.2 __ --3.3 __ 149 __ 082 __ 72 Mace
strasser ______________10.6 __ 18.0 __ --2.1 __ 115 __ 085 __ 95 Bel

Con Sensus __________ 10.6 __ 20.0 __ --2.1 __ 110 __ 091 __ 62 Bel

traecy.1 ______________ 10.5 __ 20.5 __ --0.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 60 Bel
Rameire ______________ 10.5 __ 19.9 __ --2.5 __ 111 __ 080 __ 72 Val
nilhg ________________ 10.5 __ 19.1 __ --2.1 __ 105 __ 095 __ 68 Bel
Jerry Seinfeld __________10.4 __ 20.0 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 085 __ 50 Mal
200 motels ___________ 10.4 __ 19.8 __ --1.3 __ 139 __ 070 __ 55 Mal
snowstreams __________ 10.2 __ 21.0 __ --2.3 __ 115 __ 095 __ 58 Bel
omicron ______________ 10.2 __ 20.0 __ --2.0 __ 100 __ 100 __ 70 Bel
talkabout ____ (-5) ____ 10.2 __ 18.1 __ --3.1 __ 120 __ 085 __ 52 Mal
John Mac _____________ 10.1 __ 19.2 __ --2.1 __ 110 __ 097 __ 67 Bel
rickylovesuall __(-5) ____ 10.0 __ 19.0 __ --2.0 __ 120 __ 090 __ 77 Bel
delw _________________10.0 __ 18.0 ___ 5.0 __ 097 __ 195 __ 30 Val
jd ___________________ 9.8 __ 19.9 __ --2.2 __ 107 __ 098 __ 84 Mal
lostinashford ___________ 9.8 __ 19.7 __ --0.7 __ 079 __ 097 __ 39 Mal
h2umrsrobinson ________ 9.4 __ 21.1 __ --2.0 __ 109 __ 079 __ 55 Mace
dasa29 _______________ 9.0 __ 18.0 __ --2.0 __ 095 __ 095 __ 75 Bel

_______________________________________________________

The consensus is for a somewhat warmer than average month with less sun and more rain than average, and strongest wind gusts at Belmullet (Malin Head was second favourite).

Tae laidir

After 3 days, rainfall is similar to a continent, rather than a small island:
60.1 Oak Park
2.9 Newport

M.T. Cranium

After seven days,

IMT on 15.7 C (above normal for any week of the year!)

PRC 146%

SUN 64%

(we may find one month soon that the MS uses Knock as a seventh sunshine site as I notice they are giving us departures from normal for that location in the ag summary now).

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has drifted down a little now to 12.9 C.

On Friday 11th, Markree had a minimum of --1.3 C (given the ability of the MS to find new unreported stations I won't promise that's the lowest so far).

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After seven days,

IMT on 15.7 C (above normal for any week of the year!)

PRC 146%

SUN 64%

(we may find one month soon that the MS uses Knock as a seventh sunshine site as I notice they are giving us departures from normal for that location in the ag summary now).

"Departures" are fairly run of the mill at Knock ( apt. ) :-)

Tae laidir

Looks like IMT hasn't moved too much.
Precipitation above average in SE & E, but below in NW & W.
Plenty rain due in the next week.
No new Max or Min is forecasted.
Looking good for MT!