October 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for October, the 1981-2010 average was 10.2 C (up from 10.1 in 1971-2000 and same as 10.2 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for October at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for October at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for six met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. You'll be asked to predict the maximum wind gust (in knots which are almost double km/hr) at five coastal locations and name which one has the highest wind gust. Sample answer 80 knots Belmullet. Form will guide you through the choices.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1


The five stations should be Malin, Belmullet, Mace Head, Valentia and Roches Point but go with the choices in the actual entry form if different from those.

I have to post this now because I am about to go off-line for 3-4 days.

deadline same as always, 0300h Wed 2nd October with 5 pts penalty per half day late after that.

Bsal

Done.

pauldry

Done

dasa29

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

Harps

Done

homolumo

done

can I change my gust prediction to 80 please?

mickger844posts

done

DOCARCH

Done

Joe Public

Done

nilhg

done

omicron

Done

Jpmarn

Done

Speak Now

Done.

rameire

done.

Tae laidir

Done

lostinashford

Done

delw

Done

traecy1

Done.

John mac

done, (this am )

Can I please change my max temp to 19.2 (from 17.2 )
Thanks
JOhn.

Just noticed i had the wrong username. johnmcc ... not john mac.

Rikand

Done

talkabout

Done

dacogawa

Done (late, apologies)

Tae laidir

20.3 in Shannon Airport yesterday with gust of 51 in Malin.
More rain fell yesterday (28.4) in Oak Park than the whole of September (24.4).
Could be an interesting month!

pauldry

21c in belmullet today
rainfall will be well above norm this month
temperatures mild though thankfully as need oil

M.T. Cranium

October 2013 contest entries
________________________________
________________________________


FORECASTER __________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Max Gust
______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium __________12.2 __ 20.1 __ --3.3 __ 105 __ 082 __ 56 Mace
Jpmarn _______________11.5 __ 21.8 __ --0.8 __ 180 __ 089 __ 70 Mal
Okla _____ (-10) ______ 11.3 __ 21.4 __ --1.2 __ 115 __ 091 __ 46 Mal
pauldry ______________ 11.3 __ 21.3 __ --2.3 __ 108 __ 093 __ 62 Bel
waterways ____________ 11.1 __ 21.7 __ --4.1 __ 087 __ 109 __ 56 Mace
Joe Public ____________ 10.9 __ 21.9 __ --3.9 __ 129 __ 079 __ 79 Bel
Harps _______________ 10.9 __ 20.9 __ --2.4 __ 110 __ 095 __ 63 Mal
Tae laidir ____________ 10.9 __ 20.7 __ --1.5 __ 132 __ 105 __ 66 Mal
Seafields _____________10.8 __ 17.5 __ --4.0 __ 150 __ 070 __ 90 RoPt
kindredspirit __________ 10.7 __ 20.5 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 095 __ 54 Bel
mickger844posts ______ 10.7 __ 20.2 __ --1.3 __ 110 __ 090 __ 50 Bel
Bsal ________________ 10.7 __ 20.1 __ --2.7 __ 089 __ 085 __63 Bel
Homolumo ___________ 10.7 __ 19.0 ___ 0.5 __ 110 __ 089 __ 80 RoPt
DOCARCH ____________ 10.6 __ 21.8 __ --2.3 __ 108 __ 092 __ 54 Mace
Dacogawa ___ (-5) ____ 10.6 __ 20.2 __ --3.3 __ 149 __ 082 __ 72 Mace
strasser ______________10.6 __ 18.0 __ --2.1 __ 115 __ 085 __ 95 Bel

Con Sensus __________ 10.6 __ 20.0 __ --2.1 __ 110 __ 091 __ 62 Bel

traecy.1 ______________ 10.5 __ 20.5 __ --0.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 60 Bel
Rameire ______________ 10.5 __ 19.9 __ --2.5 __ 111 __ 080 __ 72 Val
nilhg ________________ 10.5 __ 19.1 __ --2.1 __ 105 __ 095 __ 68 Bel
Jerry Seinfeld __________10.4 __ 20.0 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 085 __ 50 Mal
200 motels ___________ 10.4 __ 19.8 __ --1.3 __ 139 __ 070 __ 55 Mal
snowstreams __________ 10.2 __ 21.0 __ --2.3 __ 115 __ 095 __ 58 Bel
omicron ______________ 10.2 __ 20.0 __ --2.0 __ 100 __ 100 __ 70 Bel
talkabout ____ (-5) ____ 10.2 __ 18.1 __ --3.1 __ 120 __ 085 __ 52 Mal
John Mac _____________ 10.1 __ 19.2 __ --2.1 __ 110 __ 097 __ 67 Bel
rickylovesuall __(-5) ____ 10.0 __ 19.0 __ --2.0 __ 120 __ 090 __ 77 Bel
delw _________________10.0 __ 18.0 ___ 5.0 __ 097 __ 195 __ 30 Val
jd ___________________ 9.8 __ 19.9 __ --2.2 __ 107 __ 098 __ 84 Mal
lostinashford ___________ 9.8 __ 19.7 __ --0.7 __ 079 __ 097 __ 39 Mal
h2umrsrobinson ________ 9.4 __ 21.1 __ --2.0 __ 109 __ 079 __ 55 Mace
dasa29 _______________ 9.0 __ 18.0 __ --2.0 __ 095 __ 095 __ 75 Bel

_______________________________________________________

The consensus is for a somewhat warmer than average month with less sun and more rain than average, and strongest wind gusts at Belmullet (Malin Head was second favourite).

Tae laidir

After 3 days, rainfall is similar to a continent, rather than a small island:
60.1 Oak Park
2.9 Newport

M.T. Cranium

After seven days,

IMT on 15.7 C (above normal for any week of the year!)

PRC 146%

SUN 64%

(we may find one month soon that the MS uses Knock as a seventh sunshine site as I notice they are giving us departures from normal for that location in the ag summary now).

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has drifted down a little now to 12.9 C.

On Friday 11th, Markree had a minimum of --1.3 C (given the ability of the MS to find new unreported stations I won't promise that's the lowest so far).

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After seven days,

IMT on 15.7 C (above normal for any week of the year!)

PRC 146%

SUN 64%

(we may find one month soon that the MS uses Knock as a seventh sunshine site as I notice they are giving us departures from normal for that location in the ag summary now).

"Departures" are fairly run of the mill at Knock ( apt. ) :-)

Tae laidir

Looks like IMT hasn't moved too much.
Precipitation above average in SE & E, but below in NW & W.
Plenty rain due in the next week.
No new Max or Min is forecasted.
Looking good for MT!

M.T. Cranium

With these very mild nights, the IMT could easily drift up as high as 13 again and the mercy rule may come into play. My score will not be helped much by the MIN so I'm not expecting anything too spectacular with 0/20 likely there. Just might beat con sensus for a change.

M.T. Cranium

After 22 days, the IMT stands at 12.6 C

Precip at 11 stations used in the MS stands at about 100% (estimates for J.C.) ... at this point much lower in the west and north

Sunshine also around 100% or slightly under.

Look for a new thread for the November contest to open later this week. The bonus question will be interesting, you'll be asked to predict how large a temperature spread will occur between inland (IMT) and coastal stations on the morning of the coldest temperature at IMT stations. This will take a bit of careful explanation in that regard but here's an example, if you believe the coldest reading at an IMT station (at 06z) might be -4 and at that same time the mildest reading at five coastal stations would be +6 then your forecast will be 10 deg. Bonus points can be gained for predicting which stations are in play.

pauldry

Aw gawd my heads sore don't explain it

Wind event on 27 28 Oct will give bonus and wreck marathon

Joe Public

MTC = Minister for Trivial Connotations

M.T. Cranium

SB the master of the forms suggested this Nov bonus, it's ready to go, so I will open the thread now. I will also post a forecast in the table so you've got someone ahead of you in the fog.

I will go out on a limb and say that the annual contest is going to be a really tight finish, the Oct scores will tend to bunch up the field.

waterways

60 knots measured at Mace Head at 9 o'clock

M.T. Cranium

Daily reports have the max at only 52 knots and that was shared by Mace Head and Sherkin. Will await the final decision of the MS.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was sitting right on 11.9 after 30 days and I don't expect it to change after today unless it slips down to 11.8 by decimals. Rainfall looks to be in the vicinity of 117% give or take, and sunshine seems to be close to normal. We'll see about those estimates and perhaps solve the mystery of the gust (see above) tomorrow when scoring will appear.

Lumi

Mystery solved

Mace Head recorded the month’s highest gust of 60 knots (111 km/h) on the 27th

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final values:

IMT 11.9 C

MAX 21.1 C (2nd, Mountdillon)

MIN -1.3 C (11th, Markree)

PRC 125%

SUN 102%

bonus max wind 60 kts at Mace Head

(as Lumi posted above, quality control issues led to different postings on the website ... meanwhile the IMT held on by .01 at 11.86, the max and min were noted earlier and a bit more rain crept into the gauges while the sunshine figure was despite four out of six stations below 100% and so far Knock is denied entry, which could be some sort of a pun for those more wide awake than moi ... scoring day on three contests, ya gotta love it).

So anyway, a scoring table is the next order of business here after coffee in these severely light-deprived surroundings ... I think the sun is up but maybe the moon is extra bright).

M.T. Cranium

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max Gust _ Total
______________________________________________________________

Tae laidir _____________15 __ 16 __ 16 __ 13 __ 09 __ 06 00 ____ 75
pauldry ______________ 19 __ 18 __ 10 __ 09 __ 08 __ 08 00 ____ 72
Okla _____ (-10) ______ 19 __ 17 __ 19 __ 12 __ 08 __ 04 00 _ 79-10=69
Harps _______________ 15 __ 18 __ 07 __ 10 __ 09 __ 08 00 ____ 67
mickger844posts ______ 13 __ 11 __ 20 __ 10 __ 08 __ 05 00 ____ 67
snowstreams _________ 08 __ 19 __ 10 __ 12 __ 09 __ 08 00 ____ 66
traecy.1 _____________ 11 __ 14 __ 12 __ 07 __ 10 __ 08 00 ____ 62
Jpmarn ______________ 21 __ 13 __ 15 __ 00 __ 07 __ 05 00 ____ 61
DOCARCH ____________ 12 __ 13 __ 10 __ 09 __ 08 __ 06 02 ____ 60

Con Sensus ___________ 12 __ 09 __ 12 __ 10 __ 08 __ 08 00 ____ 59

200 motels ___________ 10 __ 07 __ 20 __ 10 __ 04 __ 07 00 ____ 58
h2umrsrobinson ________00 __ 20 __ 13 __ 10 __ 06 __ 06 02 ____ 57
kindredspirit __________ 13 __ 14 __ 03 __ 10 __ 09 __ 06 00 ____ 55
M.T. Cranium __________22 __ 10 __ 00 __ 07 __ 06 __ 07 02 ____ 54
waterways ____________17 __ 14 __ 00 __ 02 __ 09 __ 07 02 ____ 51
omicron ______________ 08 __ 09 __ 13 __ 07 __ 10 __ 04 00 ____ 51
Joe Public ____________ 15 __ 12 __ 00 __ 14 __ 05 __ 03 00 ____ 49
Bsal _________________13 __ 10 __ 06 __ 03 __ 07 __ 08 00 ____ 47
Rameire _____________ 11 __ 08 __ 08 __ 10 __ 06 __ 04 00 ____ 47
nilhg ________________ 11 __ 00 __ 12 __ 08 __ 09 __ 05 00 ____ 45
strasser ______________12 __ 00 __ 12 __ 12 __ 07 __ 01 00 ____ 44
Jerry Seinfeld _________ 10 __ 09 __ 03 __ 10 __ 07 __ 04 00 ____ 43
John Mac _____________07 __ 01 __ 12 __ 10 __ 09 __ 05 00 ____ 44
rickylovesuall __(-5) ____06 __ 00 __ 13 __ 13 __ 08 __ 03 00 _ 43-5 = 38
jd ___________________04 __ 08 __ 11 __ 09 __ 09 __ 02 00 ____ 43
Dacogawa ___ (-5) _____12 __ 11 __ 00 __ 07 __ 06 __ 04 02 _ 42-5 = 37
Homolumo ___________ 13 __ 00 __ 02 __ 10 __ 07 __ 03 00 ____ 35
lostinashford __________04 __ 06 __ 14 __ 00 __ 09 __ 02 00 ____ 35
dasa29 _______________00 __ 00 __ 13 __ 05 __ 09 __ 04 00 ____ 31
talkabout ____ (-5) ____ 08 __ 00 __ 02 __ 13 __ 07 __ 05 00 _ 35-5 = 30
Seafields _____________ 14 __ 00 __ 00 __ 07 __ 04 __ 01 00 ____ 26
delw _________________06 __ 00 __ 00 __ 06 __ 00 __ 01 00 ____ 13
_______________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir, Pauldry and Okla

Annual contest update to follow (this evening?).

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual scoring report

rank/
best 8 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ Total


01 508 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 __ 593 (1)

02 506 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 __ 574 (2)

02 490 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 __ 579 (2)
03 479 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 __ 531 (4)
04 469 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 __ 545 (3)
05 457 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 __ 524 (6)

06 453 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 __ 525 (5)
07 450 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 __ 516 (7)
08 447 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 __ 469 (17)
09 445 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 __ 511 (9)
10 442 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 __ 514 (8)

11 441 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 __ 499 (10)
12 433 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 __ 480 (13t)
13 430 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 __ 480 (13t)
14 423 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 __ 481 (12)
15 419 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 __ 465 (19)

16 416 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 __ 437 (24)
17 412 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 __ 470 (16)
18 411 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 __ 489 (11)
19 408 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ -- _ 69 __ 425 (25)
20 405 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 __ 466 (18)

21 403 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 __ 448 (23)
22 401 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 __ 415 (26)
23 399 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 __ 471 (15)
24 393 Rickylovesuall_____ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 __ 449 (21t)
24 393 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 __ 449 (21t)

26 387 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 __ 452 (20)
27 386 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 __ 414 (27)
28 384 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 __ 412 (28)
29 371 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 __ 384 (30)
30 349 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 __ 391 (29)

31 320 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 __ 352 (31)
32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- __ 279 (32)


Three or four entries __

Hammer Archer _____ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- __ 215 (33)
Bejubby ___________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- __ 176 (34)
Rebelbrowser _______ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 154 (35)
dexter647 __________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- __ 149 (36)
Gonzo _____________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- __ 135 (37)
Rocky Bay _________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 100 (40)

____________________________________________

Two entries

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

(one entry)

singers 53 (Aug)
blackbird 49 (Aug)
Tazio 58 (June)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
baraca 50 (Feb)
Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)

NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
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