Ayr Gold Cup Meeting

UrbanSea

Meeting got underway today but the Bronze Cup comes tomorrow. Think 33/1 is a big price for Mary's Daughter. One I've been following this year, was a good two year old, winning a 5 furlong Leicester maiden (good to soft) at odds of 50/1, beating a subsequent winner in good style, 105 rated Listed winner in third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and eleventh all won at least one race too. Found it too hot behind Newfangled at Ascot but did win on her nursery debut over six off this mark (second won off 3lbs higher, so did the third next time out, fourth has won 3 times since and is in the Gold Cup on Saturday).

Form of those wins are abnormally good, and she was second over this course and distance next start on heavy going in a Gr.3,with a next time out gr.3 winner well held in behind, another filly won a conditions race.

Her sliding mark accurately reflects a disappointing three year old career, not building on a good third to Tangerine Trees first time out when down the field in a couple of starts. That said, she is down to her last win mark and did catch the eye off this mark last time out at York, running her best race this year when fourth, beaten under three lengths. She started off this year rated 95 and a it would be really disappointing if she didn't outrun her odds of 33/1 tomorrow and looks a good each way bet if building on her last run

fangee

How much does the low draw worry you Urban if I'm right in assuming that the high draw is best ?

longshotvalue

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.


1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET

UrbanSea

fangee wrote: »

How much does the low draw worry you Urban if I'm right in assuming that the high draw is best ?

Draw isn't too unbiased so wouldn't be too concerned, main worry is that they will find more uncompetitive handicaps for her but with five places each way think she is an okay bet

longshotvalue

I cant see past Hoof it for the Gold Cup at all at the moment, 16/1 looks great value, nearly back to form last time out likes soft, there is a lot of positives.

Mocha Joe

UrbanSea wrote: »

Draw isn't too unbiased so wouldn't be too concerned, main worry is that they will find more uncompetitive handicaps for her but with five places each way think she is an okay bet

Where is paying 5 places?

UrbanSea

Mocha Joe wrote: »

Where is paying 5 places?

Bruce I backed with

Howjoe1

UrbanSea wrote: »

Bruce I backed with

Bruce shops seem to be becoming scarcer. I joined up a while back but they only seemed to have a (laid back) phone service and no online service working. is this still the case?

fangee

Mocha Joe wrote: »

Where is paying 5 places?

Skybet too.

UrbanSea

Howjoe1 wrote: »

Bruce shops seem to be becoming scarcer. I joined up a while back but they only seemed to have a (laid back) phone service and no online service working. is this still the case?

No they have online and phone. I like them good prices and good offers, but limited

Howjoe1

UrbanSea wrote: »

No they have online and phone. I like them good prices and good offers, but limited

thanks Urban.. Just checked and see online is up and running again. I have half of my free €50 still to claim:D

Colonel Sanders

Not Ayr but Spring Heeled has been very well backed this morning. Gets 6lbs from Hidden Cyclone but would get 18 in a handicap. His Killarney form looks good but hard to know if it was The Real Article's day down there.

Slattsy

2 bets for me today at Listowel, singles and a small double as i think both will win

Snakes and Ladders in the 2.25
&
Spring Heeled in the 5.15

Get your drinking money for the weekend up on these :cool:

UP DA DUBS :pac:

Mocha Joe

aidankkk wrote: »

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.


1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET

I missed this. :mad:

fangee

aidankkk wrote: »

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.


1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET

Stroke. Well done Aidan. Been following your "100 bets" thread.

Had it EW and also in a EW double with Urbans selection.

If Urbans wins then I'll be pm'ing you both for address's for the Champagne !

UrbanSea

No champagne for me

sting60

Red Dubawi 25/1 NAP.This has been the target all year.Boots and Spurs in the silver cup 25/1 and nice e/w double.

Colonel Sanders

I'm hoping people will believe me (based on my history) when I after time about taking Powers enhanced 5/2 show

His jumping is still awful though, that was last chance saloon as far as I was concerned

Overthelast

Mireya. Has good bumper form, was 12/1 this am & warmed up on flat couple of weeks back. Might have a chance in the madien hurdle at listowel coming up.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

Mireya. Has good bumper form, was 12/1 this am & warmed up on flat couple of weeks back. Might have a chance in the madien hurdle at listowel coming up.

Boom!

BQQ

Overthelast wrote: »

Mireya. Has good bumper form, was 12/1 this am & warmed up on flat couple of weeks back. Might have a chance in the madien hurdle at listowel coming up.

Fair play. Well spotted.

BQQ

Gambled on winner of the bronze cup to day.

I backed him when he ran earlier in the week (like the eejit I am)

Overthelast

I've looked at both the silver and gold cups for the last hour and im fnding it hard to narrow down the fields.

UrbanSea

Overthelast wrote: »

I've looked at both the silver and gold cups for the last hour and im fnding it hard to narrow down the fields.

Can't pick one in the Silver at all. Gold, leaning toward Duke of Firenze and Our Johnathon

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm hoping people will believe me (based on my history) when I after time about taking Powers enhanced 5/2 show

His jumping is still awful though, that was last chance saloon as far as I was concerned

2.7 Betfair SP!

Touched 3.6 on the machine, someone hammered it at the off

3ndahalfof6

Tomorow 2:40 THE CONFESSOR and GANDALKA might be worth a look at, nice odds.

UrbanSea

B Fifty Two 4.50 Newmarket 14/1

Have been watching this horse for quite a while thinking he has a win in him and I think tomorrow could be the day. Now a 4 year old, his form figures don’t exactly fill you with confidence but this colt is dropping down the handicap over the last while and he could be set to strike off his tumbling mark. A high class two year old, he won a Bath maiden second time out before showing a really nice attitude and heaps of ability when beating Lilbourne Lad by a head in a Newmarket novice race (runner up won a gr.2 at the Curragh and was runner up in the Gr.1 Middle Park Stakes before being retired to stud). Held his form generally well after that, finishing a decent sixth in a high class Coventry at Royal Ascot to later Irish 2000 Guineas winner Power, as well as a good 1 length second to the subsequent Gr.1 winner Dabirsim at Deauville, as well as running good races in some end of year Gr.2s and the Middle Park.

Started his 3 year old career in a handicap beaten five lengths off a mark of 105. Limited to just four starts at three, he has ran in a couple of decent races this year, class 2 and 3 handicaps starting out off a mark of 94 at Ascot back in May. Has failed to trouble the judge, and his mark of 83 tomorrow is a sure sign of his regression, though he ran better than the result suggested behind the progressive Khubula off a mark of 91 three starts back. This is a much easier race, and is dropped to a class 4 for the first time in his career. Blinkered for the first time, if he retains any of the ability that saw him beat Lilbourne Lad over this course and distance than he will be a very big each way price in a poor race. Rasaman Is feared most.

Duke of Firenze 28/1 3.50 Ayr

Regally bred colt from a top family that Cheveley Park have done really well with, by Pivotal out of the top class race mare Nannina, winner of the Gr.1 Fillies’ Mile at 2 and the Coronation Stakes at 3, by resident Cheveley stallion Medician.

Given his pedigree it’s a bit strange that he’s an out and out sprinter, he followed up a good debut third at 2 to comfortably win a Carlisle maiden his only other start, and came back at three to land a six furlong Windsor handicap off a mark of 80 in good style to land a gamble, and bettered that when an unlucky in running second to Fulbright at Newmarket last July. Looked a colt with a good future, but didn’t build on that either of his two starts after.

Has gone from strength to strength this year, winning a 5 furlong Goodwood handicap in May off 91, and looked as If he’d appreciate the step back up to six furlongs after a very good fourth to Kingsgate Choice at York, running on strongly from off the pace, but confirmed he has bags of pace when winning the Dash at Epsom, all out off a mark of 97 on quick going. Not so good in three runs since, but had legitimate excuses the run before last behind Tickled Pink at Sandown, hampered at a crucial stage. Even though he’s won over five I think he’s always hinted at wanting further, and hopefully can go well for Cathy Gannon at a big each way price with 5 places being paid.

In the same race, I’d advise another each way on Our Jonathan 22/1. Won this race two years ago off 8 lbs higher and looked like a horse with a big future, but hasn’t quite gone on despite winning a Gr.3. His mark has slipped accordingly, and he was well backed last time out, shaping better than his bare result on a couple of occasions. Could go well at big odds.

rossom

3.50 Ayr

Humidor 66/1

George Baker's 6 year old sprinter is a very decent animal on his day and I think he's going to really appreciate the step up to 6f on soft ground having bagged what looks the pick of the draw in stall 27. A very admirable servant to connections, this 6 time winner's career highlight undoubtedly came when a strong finishing 4th in last years Nunthorpe and although he's winless in over 2 years he seems to retain all his enthusiasm for the game. For the most part, Humidor has ran consistently well this season without quite making the frame and this well travelled individual looks to be on a decent mark of 102 in this ultra competitive handicap. Having started off the year with an excellent 4th in Meydan over 6f off a mark of 109 back in March, Humidor returned to the UK with an very decent 2nd to the talented Spirit Quartz in a Conditions Race at Nottingham back in April. He then was sent to France for his next 2 starts when running very credibly on both occasions when a fast finishing 2L beaten 7th at Longchamp over 5f in a Group 3 and he was also beaten about the same distance in a Listed Race at Maisons-Laffittes back in June.

He was perhaps a little disappointing on his last couple of starts but neither were awful efforts either. He was staying on in the Stewards Cup (would never have been involved) when hampered off a mark of 104 last month and on the face of it he looked like he spurned a good opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure when only 3rd in a Conditions Race at 10 days ago. Sent off a 7/4 shot over 5f at Leicester on good to firm ground, Humidor was held out the back of the 5 runner field and he found the pace too quick for him before staying on to be a 2L beaten 3rd. On his website the next day, George Baker says he needs it "proper soft" to be effective over the minimum trip these days and I definitely agree as he has been seen to run on strongly on many of his races over 5f on good ground. Although still a very talented individual, at 6 years old he probably just doesn't have the speed at the top level over 5f anymore and I think he'll relish the return to 6f today. Additionally, I think the soft underfoot conditions will be very much to his liking as well and I think his current price of 66/1 looks a bit ridiculous. Judged on today's sprints at Ayr, high numbers seem to be favoured and given that both big sprint winners came directly against the stands side rail Humidor could not be berthed in a better position than stall 27 if tomorrow follows the same trend. Trainer George Baker has his form in absolutely superb form at the moment with 8 winners in the last 2 weeks and I'm hoping he has Humidor spot on for this today. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride in this ultra competitive handicap and if Humidor is going make the frame he's undoubtedly going to need luck in running. A very talented animal on his day, I think a mark of 102 is one that Humidor can win off and hopefully he can run a really big race at a huge, huge price. Of the others, I think Baccarat 9/1 has a big run in him and I think Keith Dalgleish's 135k French import Lover Man 28/1 looks on a fair mark of 101 on his British debut.

Overthelast

UrbanSea wrote: »

Duke of Firenze 28/1 3.50 Ayr

Regally bred colt from a top family that Cheveley Park have done really well with, by Pivotal out of the top class race mare Nannina, winner of the Gr.1 Fillies’ Mile at 2 and the Coronation Stakes at 3, by resident Cheveley stallion Medician.

Given his pedigree it’s a bit strange that he’s an out and out sprinter, he followed up a good debut third at 2 to comfortably win a Carlisle maiden his only other start, and came back at three to land a six furlong Windsor handicap off a mark of 80 in good style to land a gamble, and bettered that when an unlucky in running second to Fulbright at Newmarket last July. Looked a colt with a good future, but didn’t build on that either of his two starts after.

Has gone from strength to strength this year, winning a 5 furlong Goodwood handicap in May off 91, and looked as If he’d appreciate the step back up to six furlongs after a very good fourth to Kingsgate Choice at York, running on strongly from off the pace, but confirmed he has bags of pace when winning the Dash at Epsom, all out off a mark of 97 on quick going. Not so good in three runs since, but had legitimate excuses the run before last behind Tickled Pink at Sandown, hampered at a crucial
stage. Even though he’s won over five I think he’s always hinted at wanting further, and hopefully can go well for Cathy Gannon at a big each way price with 5 places being paid .

That's a huge price for a horse of that class. Good pick.

Overthelast

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

GANDALKA might be worth a look at, nice odds.

Was looking at him earlier, nothing else stood out, so I'll follow you. Salutation & Louis the Pious complete my low stakes trixie. Be very very interested on what Segal selects at Ayr tomorrow.

rossom

2.40 Ayr

Gandalak 16/1

After an amazing season, I think David O'Meara has firmly planted himself in the upper echelon of trainers in the UK and I think his 4 year old Gandalak could well have been plotted for this race. Having shown decent form in France as a 3 year old, Gandalak joined O'Meara earlier this year and after a couple of solid efforts over 5f at Wolves and Musselburgh he won for the first time in Britain when making all to score impressively over 6f at Newcastle back in April off a mark of 81. He followed that up off a 5lb higher mark when running out an unchallenged winner over 7f at Musselburgh as he sauntered an eased 4.5L success which would have been closer to 10L if Danny Tudhope had ridden out to the line. Although neither of those wins form has worked out overly well, the visual impression he created both days was of a horse on a massively upward curve and its probably a little disappointing that he didn't kick on from there. That win saw Gandalak raised 9lb to a mark of 95 and he's been a little disappointing on his 3 subsequent starts over 6f, 7f and a mile but the handicapper has relented 4lb dropping him to a mark of 91 and he comes here on the back of a 3 month break. Additionally, he sports first time blinkers which will hopefully jolt him back into life on ground he should really relish. Drawn well in stall 18, the talented David Bergin takes a very useful 5lb off his back to get him down to 8-13 which should could prove very important in the testing conditions. If looking back to his 2 earlier wins this season, his current mark of 91 looks extremely workable and I think the short break and first time headgear will definitely see this 4 year old leave his previous 3 runs behind him. If he's been targeted at this race like I feel he has, I think he has got an outstanding chance in this contest and hopefully this can be another big race win on the steadily increasing CV of the excellent David O'Meara

3.30 Newbury Maarek 6/1. Gets his conditions. No need to say more.

4.15 Newmarket

Nenge Mboko 9/2

Unfortunately the price isn't as good when I put him up recently when a non runner for a similar event but I think Nenge Mboko is going to take a ridiculous amount of beating in this contest. George Baker's 3 year old has been transformed with the application of a visor and I think there is still a lot more to come. Looking a frustrating horse at times, Nenge Mboko barely scrambled home over 6f in a seller by a short head at Windsor back in July but that confidence has clearly done him the world of good. Having easily dispatched of another seller 3 starts ago at Nottingham, Nenge Mboko returned to handicap company off a mark of 80 at Windsor over 6f when winning very cheekily by a neck when justifying his late market support. In a 3 year old handicap under Pat Cosgrave, Nenge Mboko travelled well throughout the race and Cosgrave was a cool customer as he never resorted to using the whip (shook him along vigorously at times) as he was well in control at the finish to land the hat trick in fine style. The runner up Jontleman ran very well on his 3 next starts since including when winning well off a 3lb higher mark and that performance clearly showed Nenge Mboko was very much a horse on the way up. 9 days later Nenge Mboko turned out under a 6lb penalty at Glorious Goodwood over 7f and although he ended up a just over 3L beaten 5th I think he would have won had the race been over 6f and that the trip just stretched him. Having travelled well throughout the contest, Nenge Mboko hit the front just outside the final furlong and stayed there until about the final 100 or so yards as he could find no more at the finish as he hung right late on. Trainer George Baker posted on his site that jockey Pat Cosgrave told him he would have won if it was a 6f contest and the drop back to that trip today is a massive positive. Furthermore, the front 4 that swamped him late on all came near side whereas Nenge Mboko finished on the far side of the track and its definitely plausible that he ended up on the slower part of the track.

That race against elders when only one of two 3 year olds (other tailed off) has worked out really well from the small sample of horses to run since. The winner Magic City has since won readily off a 7lb higher mark whilst the 2nd and 6th home have both won well since off the same mark and thats not at all surprising given how competitive handicaps at Glorious Goodwood are. He's been freshened up with 52 days off the track (previous 4 runs in the space of 30 days) and is now 1lb lower off a mark of 85 as the handicapper has reassessed. I think the drop back to 6f is key for Nenge Mboko and eased back in grade to a Class 4 this looks a much easier contest. With Pat Cosgrave riding at Ayr, William Buick takes the ride and is a superb deputy and the draw in stall 5 looks perfect for him. There seems a decent bit of pace in the race which should ideally suit this smooth travelling sort and I really think its going to take a well handicapped animal to defy Nenge Mboko today. Of the opposition, Breccbennach looks the bigges threat to me having been only raised 4lb for his latest victory. If the race is run at a good clip and Nenge Mboko gets an uninterrupted passage, I would be absolutely shocked if he isn't in the first 3 home but I strongly fancy him to land this contest and I've had a good sized wager on him to do just that as he is unquestionably my best bet of the day.

UrbanSea

Overthelast wrote: »

That's a huge price for a horse of that class. Good pick.

Just backed it at 33s. They all look good until they trail in :pac:

UrbanSea

Rossom would you not be worried that Maarek doesn't look remotely like the horse he was even with this ground. Got his ground when he was brushed aside by Cape of Approval

droidman123

Polski max @ 33/1 in the silver cup. Spinatrix @22/1 e/w in the gold cup. Can't believe spinatrix is such a huge price.has done little wrong this season and has a great draw.I will be surprised if he,s not in the first 5.
Took a chance in Kingsgate native @11/1 in the 3.30 Newbury. Haafaguinea is also huge @ 14/1 in the 2.55 newb,only worry is if he will stay the 1m2f.

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Rossom would you not be worried that Maarek doesn't look remotely like the horse he was even with this ground. Got his ground when he was brushed aside by Cape of Approval

Unproven trainer aswell, don't think he has trained a winner.

UrbanSea

God Johner get it right :rolleyes: Trained Dangerous Reef to win at Down Royal on the 26th Jan 1994

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

God Johner get it right :rolleyes: Trained Dangerous Reef to win at Down Royal on the 26th Jan 1994

On the hot list so!

Johner

Haha go on B Lalor!!

UrbanSea

Johner wrote: »

Haha go on B Lalor!!

B Lalor think he's Richie Lawlor's uncle

UrbanSea

Bit funny that nearly all the runners in the Arc trial are geldings

droidman123

Wtf!! Is anyone elses coverage blanked out on channel 4??

Hitchens

droidman123 wrote: »

Wtf!! Is anyone elses coverage blanked out on channel 4??

yes

paddy no 11

droidman123 wrote: »

Wtf!! Is anyone elses coverage blanked out on channel 4??

yeah, sort it out lads, ive a bad hangover and need entertainment

Harry Angstrom

I thought my satellite dish was banjaxed.

UrbanSea

paddy no 11 wrote: »

yeah, sort it out lads, ive a bad hangover and need entertainment

Mine's been sound

droidman123

Thank the lord for my trusty nexus 10 tablet....ruk in hd

droidman123

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I thought my satellite dish was banjaxed.

Its gone on analouge and digital,all other stations are ok..its only c4 thts vanished.

Overthelast

Another shocker from Frank Spencer.

droidman123

Overthelast wrote: »

Another shocker from Frank Spencer.

No.....he gave it a great ride, i had sharestan

Hitchens

it's back on now

Overthelast

For those who missed it, Mick easterby gave a very bullish shout on C4 for Hoof It in the gold cup after his ancient cross won the silver cup. High draw, likes a cut in the ground and 3rd in a Grp 1 latest. I've just backed hoof it ew solely on foot of micks interview (see what I did there?)