Vuelta - Stage 16, Mon Sep 9, Graus - Aramón Formigal, **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 16: Graus - Aramón Formigal 146.8km

It's the last day of the Pyrenees, and every rider will be desperately looking forward to the rest day on Tuesday. Stage 16 is by far the easiest of the Pyrenean stages, and also everyone will be glad to hear that the sun should be shining the whole day.

The road rises from the start line, but the first categorised climb doesn't start until after 20km. The 5.9km long Puerto de la Foradada is only a Cat. 3 climb, but it is a fairly tough one with an average gradient of 5.9%. The next climb isn't for another 60km, but again the riders will be going uphill before it actually begins. The Puerto de Cotéfablo (Cat. 2) is 12.5km long and has an average gradient of 4%. The final climb of the day, Aramón Formigal, is quite an 'easy' Cat. 1 climb. Although it is 15.8km long, the gradient in the first 6km is quite gentle. The road really begins to kick up with 10km to go, with two steep sections featuring gradients up to 10%.

We should see another large breakaway form on the early slopes of the first climb, and I think there's a good chance that the stage winner will come from this group. Nicolas Edet (Cofidis) is the KOM jersey wearer, and he's one rider that should feature in the breakaway. Euskaltel still have a full team, so there could be a few of their riders attacking from early-on.

Given the profile of the final climb, time gaps shouldn't be too big if the GC contenders attack each other. Nibali will be satisfied to counter any attack, and Horner should have Kiserlovski with him, so neither of the top-2 should lose any time. Purito and Valverde might launch an attack in the last steep section, if only just to take the stage honours. Nico Roche and Domenico Pozzovivo will be keeping a close eye on each other. If the breakaway is caught before the finish, someone like Sammy Sanchez or Dani Moreno might attack, knowing that they probably won't be followed by Nibali et. al.





Aramón Formigal (15.8km, 4% average gradient, 9.5% maximum, 640m vertical gain):


Betting: A Valverde 3/1; J Rodriguez 6/1; V Nibali 6/1; C Horner 7/1; N Roche 11/1.

Here's a link to the Irish rider's diary thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 3pm.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 7.45pm, Eurosport2 at 10.15pm, and on ITV4 at 7pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

Dr. Bre

betancur 150/1 has to be!

mahoo

Dr. Bre wrote: »

betancur 150/1 has to be!

He only lost 25mins today. i think he might be improving

Darkglasses

Betancur all the way for me. He's been sandbagging hard and keeping his powder dry and now he's ready to launch the mother of all attacks on the red jersey. Fact.

Seriously though, I think Nico will do a fine again tomorrow and make a push to regain some time on fifth place. 9.5% to 10% maximums won't kill him. Another randomer from the breakaway to win. Would love to see Kiserlovski be allowed into the break tomorrow.

Henlars67

Dr. Bre wrote: »

betancur 150/1 has to be!

I'm going to keep sticking a euro on him in the hope that he might decide to go for a stage.

If he does he'll most likely win it.

Bukman13

The first 6km of the final climb is pretty much flat, so it should still be a fairly large peloton with 10km to go. It going to be hard to put an attack in after that, as the entire climb is into a slight headwind and most GC guy will still have domestiques left. With 7.5 km to go there is a long flat section which lasts for 4km so if anyone is dropped before this they could lose a chunk time.

Here is the profile for Alto Do Monte Da Groba from stage two, where Roche won. The final 7km is very similar to this one, so if the opportunity presents itself he may go for the stage win. If Roche does attack, Nibali/Horner won't be too concerned, they know he is not going to take a min out of them.



Either way I can't see any of the main GC guys losing more than a handful of seconds to each other.

manafana

roche to beat scaponi on this one my big bet for day.

Darkglasses

manafana wrote: »

roche to beat scaponi on this one my big bet for day.

Is there good odds on that? It's a pretty safe bet.

AnotherView

Wouldn't bet on Betencur as I think he won't come out to play

Nico may surprise again

Any downhill finishes in this race - they can be exciting and also maybe could unhinge Horner a bit

Bukman13

AnotherView wrote: »

Any downhill finishes in this race - they can be exciting and also maybe could unhinge Horner a bit

Haha... Are you having a laugh.

This is the Vuelta!!! Flat finishes are rare enough.

AnotherView

I does like a downhill finish ..I does so I do

After all one get a little tired of too many uphill finishes....especially if its Nibali and the ghost of Christmas past trundling along together at the end

Messages to guys at the Vuelta : Variety is the spice of life !!

Bukman13

Great video, whatever your opinion on Riis is, this shows his class as a DS.

You can see how devastated Roche is, but instead of dwelling on it, Riis lifts the morale of everyone. The whole team rode themselves into the ground for Roche today. That can only do his confidence good.

Paddigol

Nico and Team Saxo to launch an audacious attack at half way, catching out the rest of the GC boys, who begin to panic late on and tear each other apart. Horner is destroyed and starts rolling backwards down the mountain while still out of the saddle, Valverde suffers, and Nico makes up 2 mins on J-Rod and Pozzo.

Something like that please.

REBELSAFC

Bukman13 wrote: »

Great video, whatever your opinion on Riis is, this shows his class as a DS.

You can see how devastated Roche is, but instead of dwelling on it, Riis lifts the morale of everyone. The whole team rode themselves into the ground for Roche today. That can only do his confidence good.

I was fairly critical of Saxo after the day in the rain but they were very, very impressive yesterday.They played a blinder. They didn't get much credit from Kirby or Kelly though

Rovi

Zaugg and Majka have both gone up to the breakaway group.
I wonder are Saxo looking to do something similar to yesterday???

Bukman13

Astana closed it down, but the peloton has split into 2 groups... Will probably come back together once the pace dies down.

Good tactics from Movistar and Saxo. Movistar had 4 guys in the break and Saxo had 2. Forcing Astana to use up men to close it down, without having to play their GC men.

Could open up things for the final climb if Astana are tired.

pelevin

Paddigol wrote: »

Nico and Team Saxo to launch an audacious attack at half way, catching out the rest of the GC boys, who begin to panic late on and tear each other apart. Horner is destroyed and starts rolling backwards down the mountain while still out of the saddle, Valverde suffers, and Nico makes up 2 mins on J-Rod and Pozzo.

Something like that please.

What was that Irish legend about the fella who went to Tir na nOg, came back for a visit, but when he fell from his horse and hit the ground, his age caught up with him in a big way. Maybe the same might happen with Horner - "the ghost of Christmas past" as someone wrote above.

pelevin

In all probability Contador hadn't the legs to win this yr's TdF, but we're getting an idea of what a huge loss Riss not being with them was all right.

Bukman13

Peloton still split, A GC rider may have been caught out as there is a group of 10 riders in between the two groups.

Bukman13

Another break of 29 got away, once again Astana forced to close it down. peloton still split into two groups (40 seconds).

manafana

pelevin wrote: »

In all probability Contador hadn't the legs to win this yr's TdF, but we're getting an idea of what a huge loss Riss not being with them was all right.

Hes a love hate type of person, the doping past, the evidence of other stuff he denies and several riders saying what he encouraged.

Then you see how much he loves the sport, and he was one of first to admit he doped to win, at a time when almost no one would speak of it. One day you feel he will tell all

D3PO

clever riding by Astana & AG2R trying to soak up the bonus seconds at the first intermediate sprint to insulate Nibale and Pozzovivo. Pity Nico couldn't nab something but nice little bonus for valverde for GC and for his defense of the green jersey from Nico.

CAS in the break 1.05 up the road. Movistar at the front of the peleton though not sure if they will chase it down or let it go.

If it goes good for Nico later in the stage.

Bukman13

D3PO wrote: »

clever riding by Astana & AG2R trying to soak up the bonus seconds at the first intermediate sprint to insulate Nibale and Pozzovivo.

I reckon, Grivko and Nocentini were just relaying at the front of the peloton, and Valverde popped off the front.

Jrod was caught out in the split so that would explain Ag2r pushing the pace at the front.

D3PO

Bukman13 wrote: »

I reckon, Grivko and Nocentini were just relaying at the front of the peloton, and Valverde popped off the front.

Jrod was caught out in the split so that would explain Ag2r pushing the pace at the front.

Possibly, Id be surprised if Nico didn't do that same if that was the case though. Hes so close to Pozzivivo in GC and Valverde for the green jersey and he has gone for it already in the Vuelta that's what makes me think it was tactical by them.

Bukman13

D3PO wrote: »

Possibly, Id be surprised if Nico didn't do that same if that was the case though. Hes so close to Pozzivivo in GC and Valverde for the green jersey and he has gone for it already in the Vuelta that's what makes me think it was tactical by them.

Yea, when I seen the break had been caught just before the sprint, I was expecting Nico to go for it. Maybe he was caught behind with Jrod too, I don't know.

Bukman13

Yesterday's racing the plan.

happytramp

Felt weird saying that he knows for certain the Nicolas will be better today. I know it's nothing but just the way he said it sent a shiver down my spine. Can't really warm to the guy.

Luis21

Any more updates lads ?

AnotherView

happytramp wrote: »

Felt weird saying that he knows for certain the Nicolas will be better today. I know it's nothing but just the way he said it sent a shiver down my spine. Can't really warm to the guy.

He reminds me of Marco Pierre White...intense and strange but a flawed genius and when he warms to you, you are fine but till then its strange
:eek:

pelevin

happytramp wrote: »

Felt weird saying that he knows for certain the Nicolas will be better today. I know it's nothing but just the way he said it sent a shiver down my spine. Can't really warm to the guy.

I think you're letting your idea of Riis colour your perception of the meaning of his words. I think it's fairly clear or very much the obvious interpretation is that he is simply referring to the weather. Roche's form had been great all along, he suffered in the horrible conditions, now it's fine again & the form Roche clearly had should show again.

Bukman13

Luis21 wrote: »

Any more updates lads ?

Group of 16 (2movistar, 2saxo, Katusha, Ag2r) are over 2mins ahead. Another smaller group of 6 in between (movistar and katusha). Astana leading the peloton.

Edit: over 3mins ahead now, Looks like another break away win. Fancy Uran for the win.

dhayes73

Luis21 wrote: »

Any more updates lads ?

Plenty of breaks, as in ad breaks by Eurosport. Not much happening with the main guys today so far. All together. Large group of nearly 20 over 2 mins ahead of the peleton.

And with that, they have just said they will be taking no more breaks today. :-)

AnotherView

Peloton need to watch the breakaway...not give them too much time

D3PO

looks like the GC guys have decided on a truce for today. Going by body language that is.

Cue an attack by somebody in the last 3 km

letape

Luis21 wrote: »

Any more updates lads ?

You can keep up to date at http://live.cyclingnews.com/

I'm in work today unfortunately!

Luis21

letape wrote: »

You can keep up to date at http://live.cyclingnews.com/

I'm in work today unfortunately!

Gentleman.

letape

The break is on the deceptively tough uncategorised climb through Tramacastilla de Tena.

I read earlier that in spite of this being uncategorised, it is a tough climb and could be a springborad for an attack from the main peleton...

pelevin

Would like of the breakaways if Barguil had it to win again & show he's the real deal for the years ahead. Think it's a shame the French haven't contested the Tour for so long.

pelevin

Since I mentioned Barguil looks like he's gone fierce aggressive. I was out a few minutes & now he seems to be on his own in front.

Pudsy33

Will Roche have a go at Pozovivo?

sydneybound

AnotherView wrote: »

He reminds me of Marco Pierre White...intense and strange but a flawed genius and when he warms to you, you are fine but till then its strange
:eek:

I could be totally wrong and I'm not a cycling regular like the rest of you guys but from those videos he seems to really like Nico, or is that more to do with the fact Nico is there leading GC guy and the team has to work around him?

Bukman13

Think he has gone too early, there is a 4km flat section to come, rest of the break could gain a lot of time on him there.

pelevin

4km to go, Barguil 38 seconds on the chasers. Nothing of note with the main bunch.

letape

pelevin wrote: »

Would like of the breakaways if Barguil had it to win again & show he's the real deal for the years ahead. Think it's a shame the French haven't contested the Tour for so long.

Don't forget Tommy V's run in yellow two years ago!

pelevin

Bukman looks right - few riders closing in on him.

pelevin

Roche goes . . . for a few seconds.

pelevin

Yes! Barguil recovers to beat Uran in sprint. ALl kicking off behind

Pudsy33

Roche takes a few off his former team mate

dhayes73

pelevin wrote: »

Yes! Barguil recovers to beat Uran in sprint. ALl kicking off behind

Great call earlier Pelvin.

Bukman13

pelevin wrote: »

Yes! Barguil recovers to beat Uran in sprint. ALl kicking off behind

He was obviously the strongest, he made a mistake in attacking that far out, almost cost himself a stage victory. He did fantastic to fight back.

dhayes73

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Roche takes a few off his former team mate

But Pinot will jump over Roche in GC.