Ryanair shares: another bubble bursting, or just a glitch?

MuffinsDa

"Almost a €1 billion was wiped off the value of Ryanair shares this morning after the airline issued a surprise profit warning, citing a slump in bookings as a result of this summer’s heatwave in northern Europe."

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/transport-and-tourism/almost-1-billion-wiped-off-value-of-ryanair-shares-1.1515625

ballooba

€30 Million less profit for the year wipes a €1 Billion off its market cap? Seems like a bit of an overreaction.

Shamrock231

Don't worry, I hear talks of a soft landing... :P

In all seriousness though, there is a market out there for Ryanair flights, it may well be that that market has now been captured and the scope for growth is reduced.

IngazZagni

This seems to be effecting many airlines as airline performance has been weaker than expected. Easyjet stock down over 7% this morning and Aer Lingus down over 6% at the moment.

Ryanair almost always gives a cautious guidance on profits and so almost always exceeds expectations. Investors have figured that so now that they come out and say they may barely reach the lower end of profit forecasts of between 570 and 600 million euro, investors panic.

However, all that being said I do wonder has all this negative press especially over safety claims having maybe a small impact on trading?

bikeman1

IngazZagni wrote: »

This seems to be effecting many airlines as airline performance has been weaker than expected. Easyjet stock down over 7% this morning and Aer Lingus down over 6% at the moment.

Ryanair almost always gives a cautious guidance on profits and so almost always exceeds expectations. Investors have figured that so now that they come out and say they may barely reach the lower end of profit forecasts of between 570 and 600 million euro, investors panic.

However, all that being said I do wonder has all this negative press especially over safety claims having maybe a small impact on trading?

I would have thought that the market would base its valuation of the business on facts and profits rather than untrue sensational crap in the media. Now if the IAA came out with concerns then it would be a different story all together.

The reality is, most people in Northern Europe got more sunshine and generally good weather than normal this summer. As a result most people aren't dying to get away for a bit of autumn sun unlike the last number of years.

Also ryanair have really gone for the canaries routes as, the can charge good money, most people check in a bag and they have you for 4 hours to sell you something. With the excellent summer, the bottom has fallen out of this traditional "winter sun" market that Ryanair now has more reliance on.

IngazZagni

bikeman1 wrote: »

I would have thought that the market would base its valuation of the business on facts and profits rather than untrue sensational crap in the media. Now if the IAA came out with concerns then it would be a different story all together.

The reality is, most people in Northern Europe got more sunshine and generally good weather than normal this summer. As a result most people aren't dying to get away for a bit of autumn sun unlike the last number of years.

Also ryanair have really gone for the canaries routes as, the can charge good money, most people check in a bag and they have you for 4 hours to sell you something. With the excellent summer, the bottom has fallen out of this traditional "winter sun" market that Ryanair now has more reliance on.

With my last point I was reffering to consumer spending in the airline. Had it put off customers from booking with the airline, which in turn forces yields down.

Other airlines such as Easyjet seem to have weathered the heat wave in Northern Europe much better.

Ryanair are indeed expanding their winter sun routes to the canaries and these flights do see a greater deal of ancillary revenue compared to other routes. However these routes have a much higher sector length than the average flight which greatly increases costs for that flight.

However take a step back and look at the bigger picture. After all profits are now "only" expected to be in the region of €570 million for the year. I wouldn't be too concerned.

McNulty737

Could be a sign that they have finally reached the point of diminishing returns for their poor service in return for cheap fares. There's only so much they can shaft people with hidden charges, baggage fees, not printing your boarding card extortion, non stop annoying PA's etc. etc.

People are opting for the better service provided by the likes of Easy?

Just a thought.

bikeman1

Yes its hard to know what consumers really think about.

What I do know is that in these straightened times a lot of people look at the cost of items and go with the cheapest option.

It is right to point out as said above its the "lower" end of €570 to €600m, which are still amazing profits.

Shamrock231

bikeman1 wrote: »

It is right to point out as said above its the "lower" end of €570 to €600m, which are still amazing profits.

That's actaully an interesting point, clearly if they're making such large profits, there's going to be scope for competitors to move in and under cut FR, by making a lower profit than they currently are.

christy c

Shamrock231 wrote: »

That's actaully an interesting point, clearly if they're making such large profits, there's going to be scope for competitors to move in and under cut FR, by making a lower profit than they currently are.

That's assuming these competitors have a cost base in line with FR, and as we know most don't come close

Tenger

Shamrock231 wrote: »

That's actaully an interesting point, clearly if they're making such large profits, there's going to be scope for competitors to move in and under cut FR, by making a lower profit than they currently are.

The FR profit is achieved by economy of scale.....they have vastly more aircraft than any of their competitiors...thus a smaller profit per flight multiplied by 290 makes a lot of actual profits.
In addition FR have a cost base far lower than their competitiors, thus their lower prices may actually translate into higher profit margin on lower upfront ticket prices when coupled with some of their punitive ancillary fees.

coylemj

I'm no fan of how Ryanair treat their customers but to describe the company as a 'bubble' displays a staggering level of ignorance of their financial status.

Ryanair's previous 'guidance' on full year 2013 profit was that it would be in the range of €570-600m, today's announcement was to the effect that it would at the lower end of that estimate, that's all.

Even with the market over reaction to today's profit warning, the share price is still only back to where it was on May 1st last when it was 5.95.

SpaceTime

Fuel costs are also an issue if the Syrian and Egyptian situations become worse.

coylemj

SpaceTime wrote: »

Fuel costs are also an issue if the Syrian and Egyptian situations become worse.

Fuel costs have been yo-yoing for the past few years for all sorts of reasons....

1. Iran sanctions - price of oil goes up in anticipation of reduced supply
2. Saudi Arabia says it will make up Iran shortfall - price of oil goes down
3. Western economies coming out of recession - price of oil goes up in anticipation of increased demand
4. Western economic growth hampered by increased oil prices, growth forecasts pared back - price of oil goes down
5. UK and US threaten air strikes against Syria - price of oil goes up
6. Cameron loses House of Commons vote, says UK will not take part in air strikes, Obama says he will wait for Congressional approval - price of oil goes down

And so on.

coolhandluke

I'd love to hear o'leary say, we have pissed off so many people who now refuse to fly with us.......that things are not as rosy as they once were.....

Nearly 3 years since i've been on a ryanair flight, best decision i ever made.......ryanair have lost thousands from me, all to smugly prove a point at how they have no respect for their customers.......

Is o'leary really the right man for the job anymore ?

A Dub in Glasgo

If Ryanair has lost thousands from you, that suggests it has cost you thousands more to prove the point

coolhandluke

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

If Ryanair has lost thousands from you, that suggests it has cost you thousands more to prove the point

No quite the opposite, i have found aer lingus to be extremely competitive, even cheaper on occasion, on the 50 return seats i have booked all over europe in that 3 years.

A Dub in Glasgo

So you done it to save money, not to 'smugly prove a point' then?

I would use Aer Lingus a lot more often but I find I always go back to Ryanair as they are the cheapest for my 40ish minute journey to Dublin.

strettyend

coolhandluke wrote: »

I'd love to hear o'leary say, we have pissed off so many people who now refuse to fly with us.......that things are not as rosy as they once were.....

Nearly 3 years since i've been on a ryanair flight, best decision i ever made.......ryanair have lost thousands from me, all to smugly prove a point at how they have no respect for their customers.......

Is o'leary really the right man for the job anymore ?

Ryanair can brush it up anyway the like but maybe customers have finally had enough of rynairs contempt, rudeness and arrogance toward them and are voting with their feet and switching to other more friendly airlines who would be more than delighted to have their business and not treat them like cattle. another thing is this safety issue that was highlighted on Ryanair could also have made people think twice about flying with them. on a personal level I prefer aerlingus even if it those cost a little bit more which in most cases is very little.

Tenger

I have to agree with the cynical attitude towards the headline in the IT. This is merely a small drop in share price as a reaction (over?) reaction to the FR profit warning. Note that term, 'profit warning'...."sorry guys instead of making 600M we will only be making 570M this year"

This is not a sign that customers are leaving FR or that they have reached their peak. FR have a hugely successful business model that will continue to deliver profits for many years while other carriers struggle to break even. We may be seeing the end of their rapid year on year expansion, perhaps their have reached their logical geographical range (quick turnarounds, EU nations, single currency, mobile labour market, etc) But this is not the death knell of FR, it is a mere pothole in the MoL/FR freight train.

edrakes

coolhandluke wrote: »

I'd love to hear o'leary say, we have pissed off so many people who now refuse to fly with us.......that things are not as rosy as they once were.....

Nearly 3 years since i've been on a ryanair flight, best decision i ever made.......ryanair have lost thousands from me, all to smugly prove a point at how they have no respect for their customers.......

Is o'leary really the right man for the job anymore ?

I'm sure, as others have suggested, that this has all been a bit of an overreaction.

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Leary is happy this has got Ryanair back in the news. All news is good news for them is something I'm sure he's said in the past.

homerjay2005

bikeman1 wrote: »

It is right to point out as said above its the "lower" end of €570 to €600m, which are still amazing profits.

exactly. this is why going public with a company is just insane at times. a company makes €100million profit one year, and then if they make €99.9 million the next year its seen as a decline and a disaster. people are obsessed with growth, sometimes we need to be realistic and remember that things/markets change and that its all about taking advantage of them when they do.

ballooba

coolhandluke wrote: »

I'd love to hear o'leary say, we have pissed off so many people who now refuse to fly with us.......that things are not as rosy as they once were.....

Nearly 3 years since i've been on a ryanair flight, best decision i ever made.......ryanair have lost thousands from me, all to smugly prove a point at how they have no respect for their customers.......

Is o'leary really the right man for the job anymore ?

LOL. Don't worry about it mate. Ryanair will struggle on without your (no doubt) valuable business.

corkonion

while I realise that ryanairs model has reduced air travel prices considerably across Europe they certainly are not a good travel experience, I recently booked flights to lanzarote and did so with air lingus even though they were a few euros more expensive than ryanair, If ryanairs business has reached its saturation point and if, at the same time, people are choosing to avoid using them where possible, then indeed the markets are not overacting to this profit warning.

IngazZagni

Performance results for August just released and it looks good for Ryanair. First ever European Airline to carry over 9 million pax in one month. Load factor increased 1 point to 89%.

Aer Lingus showed a slight decline in pax and load factor for short haul ops blamed mainly due to the good weather earlier this summer. However long haul is really booming with large increases in capacity, pax numbers and load factor.


http://www.independent.ie/business/ryanair-and-aer-lingus-see-passenger-numbers-rise-29555063.html

homerjay2005

corkonion wrote: »

I recently booked flights to lanzarote and did so with air lingus even though they were a few euros more expensive than ryanair.

define what "a few euros is"?

eusap

So Ryanair are now in every newspaper and news site for free that includes the tagline of seat sale to come, Free advertisement for a non event story, and people wonder why they are making a 570million euro profit

listermint

Investors in amateur investors shocker ......

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Tea 1000

corkonion wrote: »

while I realise that ryanairs model has reduced air travel prices considerably across Europe they certainly are not a good travel experience, I recently booked flights to lanzarote and did so with air lingus even though they were a few euros more expensive than ryanair, If ryanairs business has reached its saturation point and if, at the same time, people are choosing to avoid using them where possible, then indeed the markets are not overacting to this profit warning.

Headlines always scare away amateur investors. People need to look at the figures, not the perception. "People are sick of Ryanair, so aren't flying with them anymore" is a silly statement if the passenger numbers aren't significantly less this year than last, and even if they are, you need to normalise the percentage drop with the total amount who have flown and other airlines figures.
It's likely that the over-reaction will be good news to key Ryanair investors who will just buy up some temporarily cheap stock!

donvito99

IngazZagni wrote: »

First ever European Airline to carry over 9 million pax in one month.

That's incredible. Fair play to FR.

billy few mates

Ryanairs' whole 'raison d'etre' is to be a low fares airline ("Europe's only ultra low cost airline" apparently) offering the cheapest fares in Europe, yet some people are more than happy to pay more to avoid using them. Does that not set alarm bells ringing for the sustainability of the business model?
Some people are no longer prepared to put up with a poor level of service in return for a 'bargain fare', air travel is stressful enough these days, these people have suddenly decided they want to entrust their travel to a more caring carrier and don't mind paying extra to do so. Ryanair tell us they carried 80 million passengers last year, thats not 80 million different passengers, that's 80 million ticket sales of which most will be return flights and a great number will be multiple ticket purchases by the same person, only Ryanair know exactly how many individual passengers they carry and they've never released that figure because the 80 million sounds better.
Surely the long term sustainability of the business model means that Ryanair should be targeting every passenger, not just the 'bargain hunter'? They'll never do this while the current regime is in place, they'll have to reinvent themselves as a more caring and friendly airline to their staff and passengers alike.
Europe is a massive market for air travel, Ryanair currently make profits of €600-€700M per year, how much of that profit would they have to eat into to reinvent themselves into a more caring and friendly airline (like Southwest) and attract the passengers that currently avoid using them?

Shamrock231

There'll always be a market I think for low cost flights, as well as a market for the nicer airlines, but it's not set in stone and there are often people in the middle ground who sway between the nicer airline and the nicer price. And then there are those on the bottom of the scale who are only swayed by price and either will or won't go depending on the price. It just looks like at the minute it's swaying towards nicer airlines, but I'm sure it'll go back again towards cheaper in the future some time, and then back again to nicer and so on...

€570m in profit is not bad, it's an amazing quantity of money, just because it's not as good as they'd hoped for doesn't detract from that fact that many airlines will never come close to making that kind of profit.

IRLConor

billy few mates wrote: »

Ryanair currently make profits of €600-€700M per year, how much of that profit would they have to eat into to reinvent themselves into a more caring and friendly airline (like Southwest) and attract the passengers that currently avoid using them?

I'm pretty sure that Ryanair have a very good handle on how much money they'd win or lose on that kind of a change in strategy. They may be unpleasant at times but they're not stupid. If a change like that would make them significantly more money they'd be all over it in a heartbeat.

handlemaster

I think they have enough fuel in the tank to land this one

markpb

billy few mates wrote: »

Ryanairs' whole 'raison d'etre' is to be a low fares airline ("Europe's only ultra low cost airline" apparently) offering the cheapest fares in Europe, yet some people are more than happy to pay more to avoid using them. Does that not set alarm bells ringing for the sustainability of the business model?

Why would it? Every business has a target market. Every business knows there will be some people who will never be its customers. Those are the realities of business.

Dublin Bus offers a cheap and (sometimes not very) cheerful public transport offering inside the city. Some people will pay extra to take the Luas. Others will pay even more to drive. Should alarm bells be going off at number 59?

billy few mates

There's a difference, the people who choose to drive or take the Luas over the bus probably do so for reasons other than shunning bus travel entirely. I'm talking about a whole section of the market that have been alienated and absolutely refuse to use Ryanair at any cost. A company that relies on expansion as part of its business model cannot afford to alienate a single customer, its a 'bums on seats' industry and they need to targeting every single customer not just the lowest common denominator.

They're going to make €600-700 million this year, would the shareholders not be more comfortable to make (for example) €500 million with improved levels of customer (and staff) satisfaction, an end to the negative publicity and the possibility of future growth through returning business and an increase in new business?

I'm just asking because it genuinely puzzles me that the board would only be interested in 'the bottom line' and not the public perception of the brand.
I'm thinking of Ratners.

markpb

billy few mates wrote: »

A company that relies on expansion as part of its business model cannot afford to alienate a single customer, its a 'bums on seats' industry and they need to targeting every single customer not just the lowest common denominator.

I disagree - a company that tries to be everything to everyone ends up being nothing to anyone. It cannot have a proper brand because it stands for nothing and appeals to no one in particular.

They're going to make €600-700 million this year, would the shareholders not be more comfortable to make (for example) €500 million with improved levels of customer (and staff) satisfaction, an end to the negative publicity and the possibility of future growth through returning business and an increase in new business?

They seem to be doing okay with their current strategy, maybe they have the right strategy and their shareholders agree with it? Maybe the number of people who shun Ryanair is acceptably low? Some of them would never be attracted to a low fares airline anyway, even if the service was better. Some of them would never fly to remote airports because their time is important. Some of them aren't price conscious, possibly because their employer is paying and not them.

Despite what you think, the public perception of Ryanair is cheap flights. No one (at least no one rational) is expecting five star travel but at 9m passengers a month, obviously the majority of people don't care as much as the people who dislike Ryanair would like to believe.

dukedalton

Throughout this thread people have pointed to Ryanair's "poor customer service" as a reason for their drop in profits. What do people mean by poor customer service? Customer service for me means the flight being cheap, departing on time and arriving on time. By this criteria, Ryanair's customer service is great.

Shamrock231

dukedalton wrote: »

Throughout this thread people have pointed to Ryanair's "poor customer service" as a reason for their drop in profits. What do people mean by poor customer service? Customer service for me means the flight being cheap, departing on time and arriving on time. By this criteria, Ryanair's customer service is great.

For most people that's a given regardless of what airline they fly, what seperates airlines in terms of "Service" is how they treat you when things go wrong.

IE. If at the last minute the airport is closed due to snow etc. and my flight canceled, I don't want my €40 ticket returned and be told make your own way. I want to get to my destination. That €40 won't pay for a night in a hotel, never mind a last minute flight the next day, what am I supposed to do with €40???

Hence, people go with an airline that when the flight get's canceled, the airline puts them in a hotel, takes care of them within reason, and then puts them on a flight to their destination ASAP.

As I understand it, Ryanair will only refund the price of your ticket or put you on the next available flight, and if that route only runs once a week, and you've a weeks holidays, that's your holiday gone.

So when people talk about service, while yes, assigned seating, cheap hold baggage, new planes, on time performance etc. is a part of it, the biggest part is how they treat you when things don't go to plan.

dukedalton

Shamrock231 wrote: »

For most people that's a given regardless of what airline they fly, what seperates airlines in terms of "Service" is how they treat you when things go wrong.

IE. If at the last minute the airport is closed due to snow etc. and my flight canceled, I don't want my €40 ticket returned and be told make your own way. I want to get to my destination. That €40 won't pay for a night in a hotel, never mind a last minute flight the next day, what am I supposed to do with €40???

Hence, people go with an airline that when the flight get's canceled, the airline puts them in a hotel, takes care of them within reason, and then puts them on a flight to their destination ASAP.

As I understand it, Ryanair will only refund the price of your ticket or put you on the next available flight, and if that route only runs once a week, and you've a weeks holidays, that's your holiday gone.

So when people talk about service, while yes, assigned seating, cheap hold baggage, new planes, on time performance etc. is a part of it, the biggest part is how they treat you when things don't go to plan.

I'd have to disagree with you on a couple of points. Firstly, I don't think the biggest part of customer service is how they treat you when things go wrong- I think it's selling you a cheap ticket.

Secondly- and I could be wrong on this, so correct me if I am- in terms of how the treat you when things go wrong, aren't all EU airlines operating under the same regulations re delays/cancellations? Wasn't O'Leary up in arms there a while ago because they had to cover passengers expenses (hotels, food) from cancellations due to the ash cloud? Seems to remember him and Willie Walsh (then head of B.A.) singing off the same hymn sheet on that occasion.

Shamrock231

dukedalton wrote: »

I'd have to disagree with you on a couple of points. Firstly, I don't think the biggest part of customer service is how they treat you when things go wrong- I think it's selling you a cheap ticket.

Secondly- and I could be wrong on this, so correct me if I am- in terms of how the treat you when things go wrong, aren't all EU airlines operating under the same regulations re delays/cancellations? Wasn't O'Leary up in arms there a while ago because they had to cover passengers expenses (hotels, food) from cancellations due to the ash cloud? Seems to remember him and Willie Walsh (then head of B.A.) singing off the same hymn sheet on that occasion.

I wouldn't describe the cost of tickets as a part of the service, so I'd disagree with you there. Besides, both Aer Lingus and Ryanair for the most part are usually close enough to each other in terms of price. If I went to a restaurant I wouldn't say "The service was awful as I could easily have made a similar dish for half the price from the supermarket." Cost isn't part of the service, how they treat you is. In my opinion anyways.

Shamrock231

Back on topic, here's an interesting read for those interested: http://www.scribd.com/doc/165957709/Time-for-O-Leary-to-Parachute-Out-of-Ryanair-September-2013-1#fullscreen

Tenger

Shamrock231 wrote: »

Back on topic, here's an interesting read for those interested: http://www.scribd.com/doc/165957709/Time-for-O-Leary-to-Parachute-Out-of-Ryanair-September-2013-1#fullscreen

To be fair to FR/MoL that is pretty biased source.....look at the other articles.

Shamrock231

I'm not familiar with the particular newspaper the article comes from, but agreed that the person who shared seems to have an anti-Ryanair agenda.

billy few mates

Interesting article nonetheless....

What about this one from today's Sunday Telegraph which seems to agree with my thoughts on a future direction for Ryanair...?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10294619/Ryanair-profits-warning-could-refocus-airline-on-good-service.html

dubdaymo

Back on topic, here's an interesting read for those interested: http://www.scribd.com/doc/165957709/Time-for-O-Leary-to-Parachute-Out-of-Ryanair-September-2013-1#fullscreen

LOL, with immediate effect I think the writer of this article should replace MOL as CEO. He obviously knows so much more about the airline business.

dubdaymo

Interesting article nonetheless....

What about this one from today's Sunday Telegraph which seems to agree with my thoughts on a future direction for Ryanair...?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10294619/Ryanair-profits-warning-could-refocus-airline-on-good-service.html

I certainly agree with "I travel with Ryanair pretty often, but I still have to tell their website every single time that I do not need their insurance. It is tedious," says one customer. You have to do it again when checking in. Not only that but the "Travel without Insure" option is hidden below a scroll and a new customer could easily be fooled. This problem could be easily solved by copying BA who have a "continue with Flight Only button" thus bypassing all the addons and speeds the entire booking session no end.

A Dub in Glasgo

Tenger wrote: »

To be fair to FR/MoL that is pretty biased source.....look at the other articles.

The source is the Phoenix magazine and the Moneybags column has been there for years. Very good column. The website pointed to is a blogger who looks as if he has an agenda against Ryanair / MOL

eatmyshorts

dukedalton wrote: »

Customer service for me means the flight being cheap, departing on time and arriving on time. By this criteria, Ryanair's customer service is great.

Where do you put safety? Have a browse here.

dukedalton

eatmyshorts wrote: »

Where do you put safety? Have a browse here.

Ah, this old chestnut. Ryanair operates under the same regulations as every other EU airline and, as Mick O'Leary has repeated ad nauseum, has been found by the IAA to ge "on par with the safest airlines in Europe".

You'd want to have a browse of that list yourself. one of the incidents listed is a medical diversion- how is that a Ryanair safety issue?! Another is a "hot coffee maker"-??

Most incidents on the list you quote can be attributed to operational occurrences which can and do happen to every other carrier- they are not specific to Ryanair or its maintenance procedures. To put that list iin context, Ryanair operates over 300 aircraft on 1,600 flights per day, over 500,000 per year and has an unblemished safety record since its inception in 1985.

So, based on this record, I do not consider safety to be a concern when booking with Ryanair.