Vuelta - Stage 11, Wed Sep 4, Tarazona (ITT), **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 11: Tarazona (ITT) 38.8km

The only individual time trial of this year's Vuelta will involve a battle for the stage honours, and for the GC classification. The course starts and ends at Tarazona, and it features a Cat. 3 climb at Alto del Moncayo at the 18km mark. The climb is 11km long, with roughly 500m of vertical ascent.

We should see a showdown between Tony Martin ('11 & '12 World TT Champion) and Fabian Cancellara ('06, '07, '09, & '10 World TT Champion) for the stage win. Although the profile doesn't suit the TT specialists, both Martin and Spartacus are in super shape, and should still come out on top. Cancellara hasn't decided if he will compete in the World TT championships in Florence later this month, so this might be the only chance to see this head-to-head.

And now for the GC battle......

GC before the TT:
1. Christopher Horner 40:29:14
2. Vincenzo Nibali @43"
3. Nicolas Roche @53"
4. Alejandro Valverde @1'02"
5. Joaquim Rodriguez @1'40"
6. Daniel Moreno @2'04"
7. Ivan Basso @2'20"
8. Thibaut Pinot @3'11"
9. Rafal Majka @3'16"
10. Domenico Pozzovivo @3'28"

Vincenzo Nibali is without doubt the best of the GC contenders competing. He should be able to gain at least a minute over his rivals, and be in red by the end of the stage. It should be fascinating to see who comes out as best of the rest. There's not a huge amount between a lot of the guys in the top-10 with regards to their TT abilities. One to watch out for is Tanel Kangert in 14th position. He could move up well into the top-10 after the TT.

And finally, a quote from Horner: "I’m not sure what can happen there, it’s been a couple of years since I’ve had a good time trial and I expect I’ll lose the lead to Nibali there. Sometimes, sometimes, I do a good TT, though."

Full list of start times can be found here (times are CET!)

Selected start times (times are GMT!):
WESTRA, Lieuwe (Vacansoleil - DCM) @12:31
MARTIN, Tony (OPQS) @13:18
CANCELLARA, Fabian (Radioshack Leopard) @13:54
KANGERT, Tanel (Astana) @15:24

Top-10 (times are GMT!):
POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R La Mondiale) @15:32
MAJKA, Rafal (Saxo - Tinkoff) @15:34
PINOT, Thibaut (FDJ) @15:36
BASSO, Ivan (Cannondale) @15:38
MORENO, Daniel (Katusha) @15:40
RODRIGUEZ, Joaquim (Katusha) @15:42
VALVERDE, Alejandro (Movistar) @15:44
ROCHE, Nicolas (Saxo - Tinkoff) @15:46
NIBALI, Vincenzo (Astana) @15:48
HORNER, Christopher (Radioshack Leopard) @15:50





Betting: T Martin 4/6; F Cancellara 7/2; V Nibali 13/2; T Kangert 15/2; M Pinotti 22/1; L Westra 33/1; R Kreuziger 66/1; C Horner 80/1.

Here's a link to the Irish rider's diary thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport2 from 3pm.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 6.30pm and 11pm, and on ITV4 at 7pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

godtabh

Going to be tough for Roche. It'll be a rare thing for him going so late in the day. Hopefully he doenst lose too much time

gordongekko

Thanks for the preview, brilliant as always.

Eamonnator

gordongekko wrote: »

Thanks for the preview, brilliant as always.

+1 on that.
I look forward, each evening, to reading these previews.

AnotherView

Prepared to be surprised again !!

Glass Prison 1214

I was listening to Roche on Off The Ball earlier and he seemed confident about his chances in the time trial so thats a positive. Hopefully he can stay on the podium

Darkglasses

Nico's 125/1, I reckon he'll have an absolute stormer tomorrow. His TT has gotten better and better the more time he's spent at Saxo. I'm not worried going into tomorrow at all. Not saying Nibali won't beat him and the other GC goes by a minute or so but Nico'll do fine.

I'm a big Spartacus fan but after Martin's stunning breakaway in stage 6 I could go either way.

Couldn't say the same for Horner.

letape

Horner won the TT in tour of the Basque Country a couple of years back.

Watch out for a big performance from him tomorrow!

riparooo

This will be only the second time since his move to Saxo that Roche is in a TT for GC placing. The last time was in the Tour of Med where he was eighth - ahead of Talansky, Ten Dam, Mollema. I feel his 3rd position means he is going to give 100% since the work he has done on the bike. I think we might all be pleasantly surprised.

Either way expect to see Nibali in Red with a comfortable GC time gap by tomorrow.

GetWithIt

Roche, top 10 on the stage.

Final answer.

A similar, though obviously shorter, route on the Tour of Switzerland prologue in 2012 saw him finish around 5th if memory serves me.

Bukman13

riparooo wrote: »

This will be only the second time since his move to Saxo that Roche is in a TT for GC placing. The last time was in the Tour of Med where he was eighth - ahead of Talansky, Ten Dam, Mollema. I feel his 3rd position means he is going to give 100% since the work he has done on the bike. I think we might all be pleasantly surprised.

Either way expect to see Nibali in Red with a comfortable GC time gap by tomorrow.

Well he had that stinker in the Paris Nice TT, he had one of the worst times out of all the GC riders lost over 2mins in 10kms, but he rode the first Tdf TT this year at full gas and actually had a pretty good day. He was within 30 seconds of the best GC riders (Excluding Froome obv).

If he holds on to 3rd it would be exceptional, but with Valverde only a few seconds back I can't see it.

JRod has come out and admitted he not at the level he expected, and that he has not been holding back, but hopes he improves. Lets hope the Tour has really taking it out of him and he continues to fade, I think Roche will hold him off in the TT easily enough.

It will be interesting to see how Basso goes, he looks strong, I can see him getting onto the podium by the end, either way he is too far back to catch Nico tomorrow.

Am I wrong in thinking that Roche usually performs poorly the day after a rest day or am I imagining it?

Darkglasses

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsu1Vpez54A

Lieuwe Westra will be riding a 58/44, and looking at his bike-fit you'd swear he had no forearm at all.

corny

Each way Chris Horner is a great bet. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets close to Martin and Cancellara.

CyclingBetting Ian

I can't see Horner troubling the top 5 today - he lost 20" to Nibali over just 9.2km in Tirreno Adriatico, this is 4 times as long. He has admitted himself he expects to lose the red jersey, as do I, so I am actually after having a small bet on Samu Sanchez to beat him in a match bet at 12/5, think there is some value there. Sanchez was 2nd to Nibali in the Giro hilly TT.

Martin wins it in a canter though, Nibali will be well up there but all the value has been taken, he has been smashed from 22/1 to 14/1 to 6/1. It's the third place that will be interesting. Pinotti can do a good hilly TT but has a cold (he tweeted so), Kangert could be up there or will he be asked to take it easy with the jobs that lie ahead? Westra can pull off a big ride at times, Roche could do 5th to 10th on a really good day (which I think he will have).

Not sure about Cancellara - he had a hard few days before rest day, especially when drilling it up the first climb to blow things to pieces for Horner. He hasn't been going like his usual self lately and I wouldn't be surprised if he needs to conserve some for the GC battle supporting Horner.

BQQ

Bukman13 wrote: »

Am I wrong in thinking that Roche usually performs poorly the day after a rest day or am I imagining it?

He mentioned in his diary before that he struggles a bit after a rest day, but it's not often a time trial follows the rest day, so I'm optimistic he can shake off the rust in the morning with him not starting till 15:45.

death1234567

corny wrote: »

Each way Chris Horner is a great bet. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets close to Martin and Cancellara.

No chance, unless he's on the spanish steaks.

Reginald P. DuM

Westra on the road and flying it seems, passed 3 riders on the road.. His time should stand for a while going on that info.

Update, 5 riders he ended up taking on the route. Obviously a new best time set.. 54:22


Tony Martin on the road now.

D3PO

good job by Westra he went very slow to the first checkpoint and picked it up from there. Be interesting to see if others look at that and try and follow suit.

Reginald P. DuM

D3PO wrote: »

good job by Westra he went very slow to the first checkpoint and picked it up from there.

Apparently the times at the first checkpoint at 11.5k are all wrong. Tony Martin was 17 seconds slower that Rasmussen for example.. Not sure if they correct themselves at split 2 but we shall see...

Reginald P. DuM

Martin does 51:37, 2 and a half mins quicker than next best.. Lots of daylight, must have been some ride...

dastardly00

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Martin does 51:37, 2 and a half mins quicker than next best.. Lots of daylight, must have been some ride...

Waaaay quicker than everyone else so far..... 2:35 quicker than Grivko, 2:37 faster than Pinotti and 2:45 up on Westra.

maloner

15:26Vincenzo Nibali
Quique Iglesias, a journalist for the COPE network at the Vuelta a España, tells us that Vincenzo Nibali (31) has been stung by a wasp, which has caused his face to swell up and could influence his performance today. We'll be paying close attention.

According to the updating results on http://www.lavuelta.com/13/en/online/index.html?e=11

D3PO

allergic reaction I wonder ? If it influences his TT today will make things very very interesting !!

Reginald P. DuM

Cancellara is faster that even Martin!! A whole 37 seconds faster.

check_six

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Cancellara is faster that even Martin!! A whole 37 seconds faster.

Apparently Cancellara was a good bit slower after the first split(40"+ slower) and then cranked it up for the second sector.

Where is the second time split? Is it after the climb?

letape

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Cancellara is faster that even Martin!! A whole 37 seconds faster.

Fantastic! Delighted!!

D3PO

check_six wrote: »

Apparently Cancellara was a good bit slower after the first split(40"+ slower) and then cranked it up for the second sector.

Where is the second time split? Is it after the climb?

yeah its on the descent just after the climb

dastardly00

D3PO wrote: »

allergic reaction I wonder ? If it influences his TT today will make things very very interesting !!

I hope he doesn't end up like Bear Grylls!

AstraMonti

Cancellara what a man..!

D3PO

dastardly00 wrote: »

I hope he doesn't end up like Bear Grylls!

if he does it could blow the whole vuelta open. Wishful thinking but a min or two lost could make the Angrilu climb even more interesting than it already will be

Darkglasses

I fecking love Spartacus. Absolute hero.

Shout out to the very dodgy cover of Can't Stop on Eurosport right now.

pelevin

Afraid right now I can't get too ecstatic about Radioshack riders soaring above the pack.

Darkglasses

Bauke Mollema's time doesn't look great, 6'22 down.

Valverde coming down the ramp.

Darkglasses

Nico's ready to roll!

at1withmyself

Nico on the ramp now

Morrisseeee

Come on Steph.............no wait.............Nico
/shuuuut uuup legzzzzz

pelevin

To add, I think Sean Kelly's playing a blinder. Really relaxed & quite effusive.

Kav0777

From the Cycling news Live ticker:

Ivan Basso enjoyed a brief purple patch as a time triallist in 2005 and 2006, prior to his suspension for his links to blood doping doctor Eufemiano Fuentes, but has never hit the same heights against the watch since.

Subtle, very subtle....

gordongekko

Suck in work so keep the updates coming. Thanks

Darkglasses

Will do Gordon. Last rider Chris Horner is now on the road.

pelevin

gordongekko wrote: »

Suck in work so keep the updates coming. Thanks

Eurosport on ads. From £5 a month LV are insuring people and giving families peace of mind apparently.

gordongekko

pelevin wrote: »

Eurosport on ads. From £5 a month LV are insuring people and giving families peace of mind apparently.

wow I used to pay more than that. Is there any go compare ads on?

gordongekko

pelevin wrote: »

Eurosport on ads. From £5 a month LV are insuring people and giving families peace of mind apparently.

wow I used to pay more than that. Is there any go compare ads on?

Darkglasses

Valverde needs a front wheel change, losing time.

pelevin

gordongekko wrote: »

wow I used to pay more than that. Is there any go compare ads on?

Afraid you're on your own. That's as much info as I garnered.

Darkglasses

There's Nibali's face. Looks a bit puffy.

According to Luca Gialanella of Gazzetta dello Sport, Nibali's wasp sting incident in fact took place yesterday and that he would this morning with a swollen forehead. As Astana is a member of the MPCC, Nibali has been unable to treat the wasp sting with cortisone, and so he is apparently in some discomfort.

letape

Darkglasses wrote: »

Valverde needs a front wheel change, losing time.

It looked like a slow change...

Darkglasses

Basso's gone through the first checkpoint, 42 seconds down on Fabian, 9th best.

happytramp

Nibali looks dreadful.

Darkglasses

letape wrote: »

It looked like a slow change...

Sure did, not Formula 1 levels of urgency anyway.

at1withmyself

Henao 5:32 down so well and truly out now form GC....