St Leger 2013.

tryfix

111-Leading Light A O'Brien DI = 0.96 CD = 0.10 ( OR 110 ) 5/1
1st Queens Vase and 1st Gallinule.

12-Excess Knowledge J Gosden DI = 0.49 CD = -0.31 ( OR 107 ) 5/1
2nd Gordon Stakes

332-Galileo Rock D Wachman DI = 0.78 CD = -0.08 ( OR 117 ) 6/1
2nd Irish Derby, 3rd Epsom Derby.

2-Foundry A O'Brien DI = 1.00 CD = 0.23 ( OR 109 est? ) 8/1
2nd Great Voltigeur

4120-Libertarian C Appleby DI = 0.65 CD = -0.29 ( OR 116/117est ) 9/1
Flopped Irish Derby and 2nd Epsom Derby.

2-Eye Of The Storm A O'Brien DI = 0.71 CD = -0.17 ( OR 111 ) 16/1
2nd Sandown Classic Trial

136453-Secret Number S Bin Suroor DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60 ( OR 108 ) 16/1 3rd Great Voltigeur, 4th Gordon Stakes

117-Talent R Beckett DI = 0.90 CD = 0.10 ( OR 114 ) 16/1
Flopped Irish Oaks, 1st Epsom Oaks.

14521-Feel Like Dancing DI = 0.67 CD = -0.15 ( OR 101 ) 16/1
1st Bahrain Trophy and 2nd Queens Vase

34416-Cap O 'Rushes S Bin Suroor DI = 0.87 CD = -0.04 ( OR 110 ) 25/1
6th Great Voltigeur, 1st Gordon Stakes

4111-Dabadiyan M Halford DI = 1.89 CD = 0.50 ( OR 107 ) 25/1
1st 1m5f hcp, 1st 1m4f hcap.

611-Great Hall B Meehan DI = 1.25 CD = 0.44 ( OR 96 ) 33/1
1st 1m6f hcap, 1st 1m4f hcap.

43537-Havana Beat A Balding DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20 ( OR 100 ) 40/1
7th Gordon Stakes, 3rd Bahrain Trophy.

465-Willie The Whipper A Duffield DI = 0.91 CD = 0.09 ( OR 107 ) 50/1
5th Great Voltigeur, 6th French Derby

313539-Plinth A O'Brien DI = 0.82 CD = 0.08 ( OR 97 ) 50/1
9th hcap, 3rd hcap.

1212-Renew M Botti DI = 1.00 CD = 0.09 ( OR 98 ) 66/1
2nd hcap, 1st hcap

6711134-London Bridge J Hughes DI = 2.47 CD 0.46. ( OR 98 66/1
4th listed race, 3rd hcap

581062-Dashing Star D Elsworth DI = 1.15 CD = 0.21 ( OR 99 ) 66/1
2nd hcap, 6th Bahrain Trophy

211870-Ralston Road J P Shanahan DI = 1.50 CD = 0.40 ( OR 98 ) 100/1
10th Geoffry Freer, 7th Irish Derby


The last 10 winners were all placed in first three last time out. Fillies have an excellent record in the St Leger. The last ten winners had all ran within 65 days of the race. Nine out of ten winners had ran at least 4 times that season. Horses that ran in the Derby have won four of the last ten races.

The favourite hasn’t won the St Leger for 6 years.

Key Leger trials :Gordon Stakes 1st Cap O'Rushes 9/2, 2nd Excess Knowledge 7/4f, 3rd Spillway 33/1
Great Volitigeur 1st Telescope 5/4 f, 2nd Foundry 5/1,3rd Secret Number 5/1.

Last Ten Winners
2012 123-Encke 25/1 M Al Zarooni ( OR 112 ) - 3rd in Voltigeur and 2nd in the Gordon stakes. DI = 1.05 CD = 0.20.

2011 5181-Masked Marvel 15/2 John Gosden ( OR 109 ) -1st Bahrain Trophy Gp 3 and 8th in Derby. DI = 0.49 CD = -0.31

2010 13123-Arctic Cosmos 12/1 John Gosden ( OR 111 ) -3rd Gordon Stakes and 2nd King Edward Stakes. DI = 1.77 CD = 0.50

2009 41332-Mastery S Bin Suroor 14/1 ( OR 111 ) -2nd Great Voltigeur and 3rd in the Grand Prix De Paris. DI = 1.00 CD = 0.00

2008 3121-Conduit 8/1 Michael Stoute ( OR 112 ) -1st Gordon Stakes and 2nd King Edward Stakes. DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09

2007 2114241-Lucarno 7/2 John Gosden ( OR 113 ) -1st GreatVoltigeur and 4th Princess of Wales stakes. DI = 1.34 CD = 0.26

2006 61731-Sixties Icon 11/8f Jeremy Noseda ( OR 115 ) -1st Great Voltigeur and 3rd King Edward VII Ascot. DI = 1.00 CD = 0.23

2005 12021-Scorpion 10/11f A O'Brien ( OR ? ) -1st Grand Prix De Paris and 2nd Irish Derby. DI = 0.60 CD = -0.16

2005 2241-Rule Of Law 11/8f S Bin Suroor ( OR 118 ) -1st Great Voltigeur and 4th Irish Derby. DI = 1.48 CD = 0.46

2004 3042-Brian Boru A O'Brien ( OR ? ) -2nd Great Voltigeur and 4th Irish Derby. DI = 1.05 CD = 0.18



It seems to take a horse with an 109+ OR to win the Leger, ruling out a lot of the field.

Leaving just 7 horses. Talent, Libertarian, Leading Light, Foundry, Eye Of The Storm, Cap O'Rushes, Galileo Rock.

Talent and Libertarian are huge prices for their levels of form, but their recent form is poor, but they're dour stayers and well worth backing at the price.

Foundry has the best trial form but his lack of runs this year is a bit of a worry. Great Voltigeur 3rd and Gordon stakes 5th Secret Number is just outside the OR bracket and worthy of respect. Cap O'Rushes shouldn't be ignored because of his Great Voltigeur flop.

Leading Light has gone a very strange route to the Leger, but he's good enough and experienced enough, while Eye Of The Storm is just an unknown quantity at this stage.

Excess knowledge is trained by a master of getting underestimated horses to win this. His low OR is a result of not contesting too many races this year. Worthy of respect, but he has come an unusual route for a Gosden Leger runner.

Love Galileo Rock, but if he was going to run he'd surely be priced up. EDIT He does appear to be running and priced up, there was a glitch on the Racing Post betting page where he isn't priced up at all. So now, that certainly changes things. Perfectly bred for the Leger and his form is excellent, plus Wachman is very good at laying out a horse for a particular race.

Feel like dancing @ 16/1 seems like a fair bet to turn around the form with Leading Light.

UrbanSea

I'd be inclined to lean toward Libertarian at this stage and 10s is a very fair price. Godolphin know how to train a winner in this, strange that Coolmore tend to disappoint in this.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd be inclined to lean toward Libertarian at this stage and 10s is a very fair price. Godolphin know how to train a winner in this, strange that Coolmore tend to disappoint in this.

Agree about Libertarian, his Dante win being a big plus for him, showing that he's not just a plodder. It's 50/50 whether he runs a big race or not, and 10/1 will look mighty tasty if he's on the premises with a few furlongs to run.

You need the right kind of horse for the Leger. O'Brien either sends a classy type via the Voltigeur with a serious chance of winning or he sends a staying type via the Queens Vase who has a better chance of placing than winning. Would prefer Foundry to Leading Light on those grounds.

I wouldn't get hung up on the higher rated horses chances, time after time the higher rated horses get stuffed in the Leger by the lower rated ones.

faoile@n

tryfix wrote: »

Love Galileo Rock, but if he was going to run he'd surely be priced up.

What do you mean by this? Every bookie has him priced up and he's 7.0 on betfair.

The last I heard Wachman was quoted as saying he's on course and wants fast ground.

The Galileo colt was last seen finishing second to Trading Leather in the Irish Derby at the Curragh back in June, with Wachman giving him a mid-season break in preparation for his Classic challenge at Doncaster on September 14.

Galileo Rock has only been out of the frame on one occasion in his five-race career, in the Autumn Stakes last October, and as that effort came on easy ground, Wachman feels quicker conditions are essential for his charge.

"He's in good shape, all's good with him," he said. "He's on course for the St Leger. The ground is important to him he wants fast ground.

"He's had a bit of a break since the Irish Derby and so far, so good."

tryfix

faoile@n wrote: »

What do you mean by this? Every bookie has him priced up and he's 7.0 on betfair.

The last I heard Wachman was quoted as saying he's on course and wants fast ground.

He wasn't/isn't priced up on the Racing Post betting page, and that was where I looked up the prices that are in the OP.:o

A strange omission by them, anyhow sorry about that, the OP has been amended to reflect the fact that he's a likely runner and very strong contender.


http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=583121&r_date=2013-09-14&big_race=Y&raceTabs=oc_#raceTabs=oc_

CheltenhamJ

Seems a poor leger to me , thought libertarian as well was the value

faoile@n

Libertarian needs 3 miles and fences.

He was tapped for toe round Epsom and was found out in the Irish Derby.

Personally I think he's too slow.

UrbanSea

A strong run 14 furlongs, bearing in mind he did win a good Dante

meriwether

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Seems a poor leger to me , thought libertarian as well was the value

Its always a poor ledger these days, the race is hugely devalued and is a classic in name only.

ziggy

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ziggy

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UrbanSea

ziggy wrote: »

Yep but at least they have kept it for 3yr olds only, unlike the Irish version which can't be described as a classic at all TBH

That's only because the best three year olds go to Doncaster. Brilliant to watch Yeats and Vinne Roe

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

tryfix

meriwether wrote: »

Its always a poor ledger these days, the race is hugely devalued and is a classic in name only.

It's a stayers race usually won by a horse that hasn't shown up well in the classics or even run in them, but which beats classic horses on the day.

The race has gone through a revival in the last few years, was pretty dire for a long while alright. There were an awful lot of decent horses beaten in the last few years, so classic form means little here and that should be borne in mind.

This year Epsom Derby 2nd Libertarian and 3rd Galileo Rock running. Irish Derby 2nd and 4th Cap O'Rushes are running.
2012. Epsom 1st Camelot and 2nd Main Sequence and 4th Thought Worthy ran.
2011. 1,000 guineas winner Blue Bunting and Irish Derby/Grand Prix De Paris 2nd Seville ran, plus 120 rated Sea Moon ran.
2010. Epsom Oaks 1st Snow Fairy, Epsom Derby 3rd 121 rated Rewilding and Irish Derby 2nd Midas Touch ran.
2009. Dire.
2008. Epsom Oaks 1st Look Here and Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire ran.
2007. Dire.
2006. Dire.

meriwether

ziggy wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

The Irish ledger is a farce.

Gringo180

meriwether wrote: »

The Irish ledger is a farce.

So is racing in Ireland in general.

Slattsy

Finding it really hard to look past Galileo Rock in this. Has classic form, laid out for the race, step up in trip should suit, lightly raced and improving and ground looks like it'll be up his street - so why look further?

Foundry is the dark horse, ran very well lto after a long lay off and if he improves upon that he'll be a big player. He was very eye catching.

Dont really fancy Leading Light or Excess Knowledge and wouldnt go near Libertarian with anyone's money.

kiers47

I really like excess knowledge so much so that it has been my only ante post bet of the flat season got some nice prices a couple of months ago on betfair but the value is well and truly gone now.

kfallon

Find it strange that Eye Of The Storm is still in the Leger! Not becase he ran last night but doesn't he only have one eye (his right one) and they said that he can only go right handed because of this.

UrbanSea

Slattsy would you not be worried that he strikes one as a nearly horse

faoile@n

UrbanSea wrote: »

Slattsy would you not be worried that he strikes one as a nearly horse

His 2nd in the Irish Derby behing Trading Leather is the best form on offer.

He will also improve for the step up in trip and all going well get good ground come Saturday.

My only concern with him is that he looks a bot once paced. Hopefully a strong pace to run at combined with the long straight will see him get his head in front.

I got a decent price on his pre derby so here's hoping

Slattsy

What he said! Ha ha

UrbanSea

Yeah consistent he's a solid each way bet but finds winning a bit hard

tryfix

Libertarian, Galileo Rock, Talent, all have roughly the same chance on form and pedigree, with Galileo rock most likely not to let you down, and either of the other two capable of leaving everything else for dead if they're on form.

With Gosden's record in the Leger the money for Excess Knowledge has to be a great tip in itself, but the value's gone.

Foundry............ if he runs, and a small saver on Feel Like Dancing will do me fine.

faoile@n

Personally I can't have Libertarian.

Libertarian is a bit of an enigma but I've come to the conclusion that he's just as slow as a boat. The Dante run is baffling but I have serious doubts of the form of the race. Trading Leather aside the race hasn't worked out at all (Ronan Whelan said subsequently that TL really needed the run and would come on a stone). Indian Chief, Ghurair, Windhoek, Greatwood & Secret Number all well beaten since. The race just stinks.

The Derby was a messy race too and the form has also been let down multiple times. ROTW, BOM, Ocovangno, Mars, Chopin & even Libertarian himself running terribly in the Irish Derby. I think the Irish Derby run is as good as he is and I'd be place laying him this weekend.

I also think Talent was a very fortunate winner of the Oaks and wouldn't give her much of a chance in the Leger. They went off at a ridiculous pace up front and the race fell in her lap.

Secret Gesture, The Lark & Moth have all let the form down badly since too.

Galileo Rock's run in the Irish Derby (a truly run race) is the best form for me and I fully expect him to show that on Saturday. I also like Wachman as a trainer and fully expect him to have GL ready to roll.

tryfix

I see Leading Light and Galileo Rock are still in the Irish Leger on Sunday, Galileo Rock probably as a precaution, but Leading Light is the only one of O'Brien's Doncaster Leger entries with a Curragh entry. They may pull him from the Doncaster race..

faoile@n

tryfix wrote: »

I see Leading Light and Galileo Rock are still in the Irish Leger on Sunday, Galileo Rock probably as a precaution, but Leading Light is the only one of O'Brien's Doncaster Leger entries with a Curragh entry. They may pull him from the Doncaster race..

Aidan O'Brien was quoted as saying if the ground gets too soft for Ernest Hemmingway in the Curragh that one of his English Leger horses will be re-routed to the Irish race.

Must be Leading Light if it happens.

Presumably Galileo Rock is just a precaution.

faoile@n

Joseph on Leading Light & Ryan Moore on Foundry...

kfallon

faoile@n wrote: »

Joseph on Leading Light & Ryan Moore on Foundry...

Was this on Twitter or RP site?

faoile@n

kfallon wrote: »

Was this on Twitter or RP site?

Twitter but its been confirmed. The final declarations were this morning.

Feel Like Dancing, Eye Of The Storm and London Bridge all non runners.

Slattsy

Looks like the ground will be on the soft side too.

I wanted better ground for Galileo Rock

Johner

Foundry for me at the prices.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Looks like the ground will be on the soft side too.

I wanted better ground for Galileo Rock

Wont run if the ground gets any softer according to Wachman.
Get your bets on for your fancies asap.

faoile@n

Slattsy wrote: »

Wont run if the ground gets any softer according to Wachman.
Get your bets on for your fancies asap.

You'll surely get a rule 4 no?

I'd be gutted if he doesn't run I'm sitting on an antepost slip at 33/1 :mad:

Slattsy

Yeah its NRNB

I forgot it was Thursday.

tryfix

The Park Hill over the Leger trip today took a lot of getting, with the first two having negative CD's of -0.12 and -0.06, with the third beaten 4l further behind having a CD of 0.09 which is fairly close to a negative CD.

Which would put me off the more speedily bred types like Foundry.

The 4 runners left in with negative CD's are Excess Knowledge -0.31, Libertarian -0.29, Galileo Rock -0.08, and Cap O'Rushes -0.04.

Overthelast

Marginal preference for Leading Light, but finding it hard to separate the top two in the mkt. Was looking at Talent too, what are the fillies record like in this? Might not even have a bet in the race as it looks wide open to me.

droidman123

Overthelast wrote: »

Marginal preference for Leading Light, but finding it hard to separate the top two in the mkt. Was looking at Talent too, what are the fillies record like in this? Might not even have a bet in the race as it looks wide open to me.

Yeah i have made my mind up too on leading light.i might double him up with a decent hotpot when i look at the fields tomorrow.

Overthelast

Just read the op, fillies have an excellent record in the ledger but talents form doesn't blow me over, then again 7 lengths to The Fugue not bad...

UrbanSea

Overthelast wrote: »

Just read the op, fillies have an excellent record in the ledger but talents form doesn't blow me over, then again 7 lengths to The Fugue not bad...

Had to look up the last filly to win, User Friendly 1992

Overthelast

UrbanSea wrote: »

Had to look up the last filly to win, User Friendly 1992

Oh no! Just back from the bookie and lobbed on a few quid ew at 12/1's. Well it's done now and serves me right for not looking it up myself. Still, looks an open race. She handled the soft well at Epsom
Forgive her last run ( travelling to irl
might not have went down well with her).

Looks very open

Overthelast

I reckon if I say it looks an open race enough times, the filly might win

Slattsy

Crisford playing down the chances of Libertarian - so he's my pick :cool:

I think the soft ground will play to the strength of Leading Light. But not sure his form is good enough but hopefully he keeps drifting.

Talent def has a squeak too.

UrbanSea

Looks wide open, none strike you as a potential star. Not really a race I generally have a big bet in, though I really fancied Blue Bunting the year she was in it

droidman123

Looks a really wide open race

Overthelast

Pricewise pick will be out any minute now online.

Slattsy

It's a wide open race lads.


I'm scooping. Gluck.

Johner

I think its a wide open race. Foundry will win though. Then it's down to the Foundry in Carlow to celebrate. Is that place still open?

Backstreet Moyes

Johner wrote: »

I think its a wide open race. Foundry will win though. Then it's down to the Foundry in Carlow to celebrate. Is that place still open?

I am going to take a chance on Foundry his first run back was very impressive. An O Brien horse will come on a ton from that run and it doesn't look like their is a superstar he is worth a small bet.

droidman123

I,m going to stick with leading light, the 1m6f will take a bit of getting today.he ticks the boxes for me.I took the 4/1 in powers this morning,guaranteed price.

tryfix

Took 11/2 with Paddy Power this morning on Excess Knowledge with best odds guaranteed and money back if he finishes second to an O'Brien trained winner. Fear Foundry and Ryan Moore combination, but I'll stick with the DI and Gosden's ability to have a horse spot on for the Leger.

Looks wide open, but it's a good Leger field..