Dublin property boom , it all begins again.

bbsrs

I've just been reading this article, http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0GS3A920130828?feedType=RSS&irpc=43, same old scenario , next a budget to stimulate the construction sector then the final piece of the puzze is FF back into power and the Celtic tiger will roar again!

Tabnabs

Where is all the cheap credit coming from to fuel the next boom? Have you a link to that also?

techdiver

We have a restriction of supply due to the inaction on repossessions which is fueling a mini bubble in Dublin prices.

It's amazing to think after all that has unfolded over the last decade or so, Irish people are back in bidding wars for property! The country deserves every ill fate it gets!

_Kaiser_

techdiver wrote: »

We have a restriction of supply due to the inaction on repossessions which is fueling a mini bubble in Dublin prices.

It's amazing to think after all that has unfolded over the last decade or so, Irish people are back in bidding wars for property! The country deserves every ill fate it gets!

It's not amazing really.. we've (as a nation) learned nothing from the last 6/7 years. Just have a look over on the Accommodation/Property forum here and you'll see all the BTL/"Investment" talk is started again too. Next the phrase "getting on the property ladder" will make a return. :rolleyes:

Unfortunately it presents a rather odd choice for those of us who didn't buy into this mindset first time round. Do we:

- Resist again, do things right and when it inevitably crashes again end up paying for it all (again!) anyway

- Say feck it, wait for the "you've been pre-approved for €500k" calls again and just party with everyone else, secure in the knowledge that when the end comes you can just not pay the mortgage, cry poverty and point to bailouts for bankers/developers while waiting for your own rescue package

Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but as someone who was raised to pay my debts first and take responsibility for my actions, I feel increasingly stupid for doing so when those who don't are rewarded and I pick up the tab for it.

techdiver

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

It's not amazing really.. we've (as a nation) learned nothing from the last 6/7 years. Just have a look over on the Accommodation/Property forum here and you'll see all the BTL/"Investment" talk is started again too. Next the phrase "getting on the property ladder" will make a return. :rolleyes:

Unfortunately it presents a rather odd choice for those of us who didn't buy into this mindset first time round. Do we:

- Resist again, do things right and when it inevitably crashes again end up paying for it all (again!) anyway

- Say feck it, wait for the "you've been pre-approved for €500k" calls again and just party with everyone else, secure in the knowledge that when the end comes you can just not pay the mortgage, cry poverty and point to bailouts for bankers/developers while waiting for your own rescue package

Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but as someone who was raised to pay my debts first and take responsibility for my actions, I feel increasingly stupid for doing so when those who don't are rewarded and I pick up the tab for it.

I feel exactly the same!

seanie_c

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

Do we:

- Resist again, do things right and when it inevitably crashes again end up paying for it all (again!) anyway

- Say feck it, wait for the "you've been pre-approved for €500k" calls again and just party with everyone else, secure in the knowledge that when the end comes you can just not pay the mortgage, cry poverty and point to bailouts for bankers/developers while waiting for your own rescue package

This time around, I'll take option 2....

Seriously though, I doubt there will be any boom we saw between 2000, 2007. At least from what I can see, those days are gone.

Essentially what Irish people exchanged for the illusion of prosperity was the sale of the country to foreign bankers and there's no going back absent some catastrophic failure in the global economy.

We always hear some doom mongers warn about impending collapse of economy.

Well, a collapse is too dramatic....we're more likely to experience a gradual decline in living standards, education, health. Increase in social problems from drugs, alcohol, unplanned pregnancies. Increase in crime, homelessness, poverty, unemployment, debt to banks. Like a frog being boiled alive.

We see already all the new taxes being introduced, spending cuts to education and health. All of these will destroy the country and the banks will take everything for themselves. Irish people will be left with very little, just their iphones and nexus tablets....but hey, when you have one of those, don't you feel wealthy?

Another boom? Not a chance, the country has already been sold.

Iwannahurl

It's not a real boom, though in one sense you could call it a bubble.

Karl Deeter described the situation well on RTE Radio 1 recently, imo.

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-pat-kenny/programmes/2013/0827/470528-today-with-myles-dungan-tuesday-27-august-2013/?clipid=1296883

bbsrs

Tabnabs wrote: »

Where is all the cheap credit coming from to fuel the next boom? Have you a link to that also?

Seems to be the cash rich and irish working abroad that are snapping up "bargains" that's reducing the supply for those that are actually in a position to and want to buy a home. All sounds familiar.

gaius c

Once the cash is gone, it's gone. There's no magic flow of credit to replace the soon to be exhausted cash supply. Relax peeps.

AlekSmart

seanie_c wrote: »

This time around, I'll take option 2....

Seriously though, I doubt there will be any boom we saw between 2000, 2007. At least from what I can see, those days are gone.

Well, a collapse is too dramatic....we're more likely to experience a gradual decline in living standards, education, health. Increase in social problems from drugs, alcohol, unplanned pregnancies. Increase in crime, homelessness, poverty, unemployment, debt to banks. Like a frog being boiled alive.

We see already all the new taxes being introduced, spending cuts to education and health. All of these will destroy the country and the banks will take everything for themselves. Irish people will be left with very little, just their iphones and nexus tablets....but hey, when you have one of those, don't you feel wealthy?

Another boom? Not a chance, the country has already been sold.

It may well be simply a case of Ireland (and its inhabitants) having to take a big dose of reality.

I would speculate that,going forward (:mad:),the Irish Republic,will quite rapidly find a Socio/Economic level on par with former 2nd Level Eastern-Bloc States.

Poverty (real,as opposed to imaginary) and a dawning realization that the individual can only live within their restricted means is not going to be an easy thing to witness on our streets...but the process is well and truly started now !! :eek:

creedp

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

It's not amazing really.. we've (as a nation) learned nothing from the last 6/7 years. Just have a look over on the Accommodation/Property forum here and you'll see all the BTL/"Investment" talk is started again too. Next the phrase "getting on the property ladder" will make a return. :rolleyes:

Unfortunately it presents a rather odd choice for those of us who didn't buy into this mindset first time round. Do we:

- Resist again, do things right and when it inevitably crashes again end up paying for it all (again!) anyway

- Say feck it, wait for the "you've been pre-approved for €500k" calls again and just party with everyone else, secure in the knowledge that when the end comes you can just not pay the mortgage, cry poverty and point to bailouts for bankers/developers while waiting for your own rescue package

Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but as someone who was raised to pay my debts first and take responsibility for my actions, I feel increasingly stupid for doing so when those who don't are rewarded and I pick up the tab for it.

How many mortgage holders have benefited to date from taxpayers picking up their tab? I'm not aware of any mass mortgage write-off for owner occupiers/buy to lets - have I missed something?

As for the Q what should people who don't own a house do? Presumably decide whether buying a house is something that they want to do and then decide if they can afford it? I think it should also be pointed out that the vast majority of mortgage holder are doing the right thing, i.e. doing what they were raised to do and paying their way.

I'm still confused by people's viewpoints on home ownership. On the one hand people critisize people for buying a house - they should rent and on the other hand they critisize people for buying a house so it can be rented to those who don't want to buy. Can both viewpoints be reconciled?

seanie_c

AlekSmart wrote: »

It may well be simply a case of Ireland (and its inhabitants) having to take a big dose of reality.

I would speculate that,going forward (:mad:),the Irish Republic,will quite rapidly find a Socio/Economic level on par with former 2nd Level Eastern-Bloc States.

I've wondered what the country will look like 10 years from now and I think it will resemble what we see in a lot of UK cities today.

Yes, of course, UK is still a very rich country but the living standards of many has really declined sharply in the last 10-15 years.

They have record high unemployment among youth who are using a lot drugs and alcohol as coping mechanisms. This leads to health and social problems which the state has to deal with eventually through health services that are having their budgets cut in favor of wars overseas.

I know it's not isolated to the UK and I realize Ireland's towns and cities have problem with drugs and alcohol too. We're probably between 5-10 years behind UK. There's definitely a trend of increased suicide and drug use (incl. alcohol) in Ireland since the boom ended.

If you focus on the 15-24 age group who are unable to see any future for themselves here in Ireland, what kind of society will we have in 10-15 years?

Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring property prices down to a level people can afford, more and more people will depend on the government to look after them.

gaius c

AlekSmart wrote: »

It may well be simply a case of Ireland (and its inhabitants) having to take a big dose of reality.

I would speculate that,going forward (:mad:),the Irish Republic,will quite rapidly find a Socio/Economic level on par with former 2nd Level Eastern-Bloc States.

Poverty (real,as opposed to imaginary) and a dawning realization that the individual can only live within their restricted means is not going to be an easy thing to witness on our streets...but the process is well and truly started now !! :eek:

And for people who claim that it can't possibly happen because "we've got the IFSC, Intel and pharma companies here", have a look at Puerto Rico.

OMD

gaius c wrote: »

Once the cash is gone, it's gone. There's no magic flow of credit to replace the soon to be exhausted cash supply. Relax peeps.

What do you mean it's gone. Where does it go?

techdiver

OMD wrote: »

What do you mean it's gone. Where does it go?

I think what he means is, many cash buyer were sitting on the sidelines for years waiting for the correct time to buy. It seems based on the figures that, for them at least, 2013 was that year.

We are clearing a backlog of cash buyers at the moment and credit is still squeezed, so when all those cash buyer have purchased, the "dead cat bounce" affect they caused will be evident.

PRAF

Others have probably covered it here but there are just so many factors that should be acting as a drag on the property market

• persistently high unemployment
• a govt fiscal problem that still hasn't been solved
• banks that are still largely unwilling to 'invest' in property loans
• higher property ownership costs (property tax, water charges, etc.)
• the prospect of higher interest rates

The only thing going for the market at the moment is the extreme shortage of family homes in urban areas (especially certain pockets of Dublin).

It would be truly depressing to see the market return anywhere near the previous levels of insanity which we witnessed from 2005-2008

OMD

techdiver wrote: »

I think what he means is, many cash buyer were sitting on the sidelines for years waiting for the correct time to buy. It seems based on the figures that, for them at least, 2013 was that year.

We are clearing a backlog of cash buyers at the moment and credit is still squeezed, so when all those cash buyer have purchased, the "dead cat bounce" affect they caused will be evident.

But the cash goes to others. Either giving them cash to buy again or else clearing their debts to allow them borrow for another property.

Sleepy

seanie_c wrote: »

I've wondered what the country will look like 10 years from now and I think it will resemble what we see in a lot of UK cities today.

Yes, of course, UK is still a very rich country but the living standards of many has really declined sharply in the last 10-15 years.

They have record high unemployment among youth who are using a lot drugs and alcohol as coping mechanisms. This leads to health and social problems which the state has to deal with eventually through health services that are having their budgets cut in favor of wars overseas.

I know it's not isolated to the UK and I realize Ireland's towns and cities have problem with drugs and alcohol too. We're probably between 5-10 years behind UK. There's definitely a trend of increased suicide and drug use (incl. alcohol) in Ireland since the boom ended.

If you focus on the 15-24 age group who are unable to see any future for themselves here in Ireland, what kind of society will we have in 10-15 years?

Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring property prices down to a level people can afford, more and more people will depend on the government to look after them.

I think you could be right on this front. The gap between those working and those not will have to widen eventually.

ardmacha

I've wondered what the country will look like 10 years from now and I think it will resemble what we see in a lot of UK cities today.

Yet immigration in Ireland and the UK has increased recently. Some of these people with "no future" might consider why others find a future here.

seanie_c

ardmacha wrote: »

Yet immigration in Ireland and the UK has increased recently. Some of these people with "no future" might consider why others find a future here.

Future doing what exactly?

If you're talking about refugees, you might want to ask yourself how they became refugees in the first place.

UK is about to start bombing Syria where millions of refugees have been fleeing for the last 2 years into European nations.
Do you think bombing will help create more or less?

Before missiles start raining down on Syrian civilians fired by UK/US/France, they've been busy sending millions to fund Islamic Mercenaries destroy what was once a beautiful country.

If not refugees, are you talking about the immigrants that were sending SMS back to their friends overseas informing them Ireland was "virgin territory" for criminal activity?

Oh I'm sure they've got a bright future here hustling and living off the welfare state, thanks to the naivety of certain people.

gaius c

OMD wrote: »

What do you mean it's gone. Where does it go?

Into the great big black hole labelled "debt" ultimately. We've long since passed the point where we could have prevented a Japanese-style zombie economy.

Larbre34

Indeed it is a dead cat bounce. Those with the wherewithal are picking up decent cash prices, and why wouldnt they, and of course an amount of competition over the real plum properties is inevitable, however that anomoly will work itself out over the next 18-24 months. House prices at the end of 2012 are, roughly speaking, what they will be for the next 4-6 years for reasons of wage deflation, economic stagnation and fairly flat demand.

OMD

Larbre34 wrote: »

Indeed it is a dead cat bounce. Those with the wherewithal are picking up decent cash prices, and why wouldnt they, and of course an amount of competition over the real plum properties is inevitable, however that anomoly will work itself out over the next 18-24 months. House prices at the end of 2012 are, roughly speaking, what they will be for the next 4-6 years for reasons of wage deflation, economic stagnation and fairly flat demand.

If it is a dead cat bounce then "those with cash are not picking up decent prices".

When is this wage deflation going to start. Wages going up at the moment, employment going up.

Why will demand be flat for next 4-6 years

creedp

Larbre34 wrote: »

Indeed it is a dead cat bounce. Those with the wherewithal are picking up decent cash prices, and why wouldnt they, and of course an amount of competition over the real plum properties is inevitable, however that anomoly will work itself out over the next 18-24 months. House prices at the end of 2012 are, roughly speaking, what they will be for the next 4-6 years for reasons of wage deflation, economic stagnation and fairly flat demand.

Why would they if property prices are going to crash back down again?

Sleepy

Are we still seeing very low volumes of transactions?

It's pretty easy to read trends across a small set of data that bear no relation to the wider picture. e.g. while prices may be "recovering" in prime locations such as Clontarf / Malahide / Dalkey etc. these may bear no relation to more normal areas of the market.

VONSHIRACH

With high unemployment, significant emigration and restricted credit there are only certain categories of people who can purchase. The majority of people who do not belong to the well paid (some professionals & some public sector), or with large savings, or with inherited cash sectors can't purchase housing.

jmayo

creedp wrote: »

How many mortgage holders have benefited to date from taxpayers picking up their tab? I'm not aware of any mass mortgage write-off for owner occupiers/buy to lets - have I missed something?

Well what all the ones who have been able to avail of the moratorium where mortgage defaulters are not being turfed out of the homes they are no longer paying for ?
The taxpayers are basically funding these people's accommodation and assets.

Why does this come to mind ?

who_me

techdiver wrote: »

I think what he means is, many cash buyer were sitting on the sidelines for years waiting for the correct time to buy. It seems based on the figures that, for them at least, 2013 was that year.

We are clearing a backlog of cash buyers at the moment and credit is still squeezed, so when all those cash buyer have purchased, the "dead cat bounce" affect they caused will be evident.

There are still a lot of successful businesses running, having being relatively unaffected by the crash (notably, IT). Credit may be harder to get for these employees/owners/investors, but equally prices are a lot lower too. So the income - loan ratio is probably a lot healthier now than it would have been at the height of the boom.

The posts above seem to make it sound as if there's a fixed bucket of cash which is running low, that isn't the case.

techdiver

who_me wrote: »

There are still a lot of successful businesses running, having being relatively unaffected by the crash (notably, IT).

I work in IT, and we are not all Mark Zuckerbergs. We earn a pretty standard wage for the most part. No one i know that works in the industry earns a sufficient wage which would enable them to afford to buy a house without credit.

More to the point I think the effect IT has on the economy is overstated. The sector only has a very small proportion of the people employed as compared to the wider economy.

It is a success story in it's own right, but is being overused as the pinup boy of the Irish economy.

It's the same old Ireland of wishful thinking and chancers trying to stoke a fire that isn't there. We need to get real as a nation!

lucky john

Just a couple of experiences in the property market recently. Two years ago finding student accommodation was easy. Arrange 5 or 6 appointments and pick the best one, 260 euro for 5 sharing.
This year, a nightmare. We had to watch daft all the time and ring immediately. 340 for 5 sharing around drumcondra. Landlords are saying that a lot of student type accommodation is been spruced up a little and going into the more permanent rental market. I wouldn't be surprised if the next report on the rental market shows tight supply a spike in rents. The tipping point between renting and mortgages is not far off. What ever about landlords not paying back the banks they are still taking tenants so I don’t see a sudden glut of properties suddenly appearing. Even if banks start repossession all they need to do is loosen the lending strings and i think they will find customers.

I manufacturer and supply a very niche product used in house construction. I have a had a few units gathering dust here since november 07. 2 weeks ago a site they are used on in dublin opened again after almost six years and took my old stock. I have to say I never expected to ever sell them. Its hardly a sign of a boom but could it be a "soft rising". Have we learned enough in the last 6 years to be able to contol the upside never mind the down side?

Actual prices outside dublin have stabilised, all be at a very low price. In a small longford town you can buy a 3 bed semi furnished for 50, 000. Also 50, 000 in a small meath town. In cavan prices seem to be improving a little. 40, 000 two years ago for the 3 bed last week 60, 000 for a little bit better 3 bed. All these are distressed sales and with plent of supply to come yet. These are all genuine prices and all these houses were originally 150, 000 + six years ago. Houses are moving quietly in the back ground now all the time. This seems to be bank policy. Sell for whatever you can get and then we will discuss the balance later

While none of this points to a new boom, its my opinion that we are at a turning point. The last link in the chain for a more robust property market is bank lending. Once their balance sheets are in better order, as sure as night follows day they will loosen the purse strings. Now that it is in the interest of our government to normalize banking the question is can we trust them to keep better control on the lenders this time?

AlekSmart

Sleepy wrote: »

I think you could be right on this front. The gap between those working and those not will have to widen eventually.

There is also the very high probability of such inevitability also feeding into the topic of your other currently live thread....:(

One of the glaring almost unbelievable elements here is the continuing refusal of the Government to overhaul the Private Rental Sector's regulatory and management infrastructure.

Currently and debate on Private Rental Sector business is invariably drawn to the traditional individual Landlord vs individual Tenant scenario,which appears to be generally acceptable as to how a National Private Rental sector should operate.

This is the time for Government to get involved in providing the impetus to corporate involvement in Private Rental,as could be instigated by revamping the area of Tenancy Contract Law,in relation to BOTH Landlord and Tenant obligations and responsibilities.

It's long past the time to move away from the Frock-Coat,Stovepipe Hat and Baliff images which continue to bedevil our national perspective on Property Rental .