Friday 23 August

Overthelast

My fancies for tomorrow:

2.30 Times Up - I backed Simenon at Ascot. Love the horse but surely this is on the sharp side for him so I'm going with last yrs winner Time's Up.

3.05 Robin Hoods Boy - beat the unfortunate Educate last time out, giving him a few pounds. Form of his races working out fine & he's improving. All of these bar one have not one over this distance. I'm hoping JM can bring this fella home (there's a loose piece of form through Castilo del Diablo who runs in the first race)

3.40 Shea Shea - think he did everything but win at Ascot, and Sole Power was produced so late on the near side that he didn't have time to react. I'm giving him another chance here & he's drawn beside sole power (who's back to his preferred 5F) and the improver Slade Power (though I reckon he's best over 6F). There's going to be very little in this so I'm not exactly bullish but going to side with the fav.

tryfix

Like Azeemah a lot in that tricky 2.30 race.

EDIT : He's a Dubawi and the soft ground is likely to scupper his chances.

rossom

1.55 York

White Nile 14/1

David Simcock's 4 year old comes into this as the most lightly raced with only 3 career starts to date and although his fitness is definitely a concern after a 339 day absence I am absolutely sure this well bred son of Galileo is quite a bit better than his mark of 80 and if ready to do himself justice I think a very big run on the cards. A full brother to Dermot Weld's very decent Group 3 winning mare (at 4) Sense Of Purpose, White Nile made his debut last June as a 3 year old with a very encouraging 4th in a hot Maiden at Newmarket over 12f in soft ground when given a lovely introductory ride. Held up in last, White Nile made steady progress through the field to beaten 6L in the end with the front 4 well celar of the remainder. The winner Shantaram came into the race with extremely strong form and won a Group 3 comfortably on his next start whilst the runner up (2nd start) has since won in a handicap off a mark of 84. White Nile put that experience to good use when scoring on his 2nd start by a cosy enough neck over 10f at Newcastle in good to soft ground with the front 2 pulling well clear. Settled in touch on the outside under Graham Lee, White Nile got in a protracted battle with runner up Noble Silk for the final couple of furlongs and after that rival looked to have the upper hand heading into the final furlong White Nile responded really well for pressure and got up to be in command at the finish. The runner up is now rated 92 on the flat and it was a really nice victory. White Nile's final start came on handicap debut last September at Thirsk over 12f off a mark of 78 when going down by a head. Under Robert Winston and dropped out in the rear with the eventual winner, White Nile still showed signs of greeness in my opinions as he had to be bumped along on quite a few occasions from a fair way out in a strongly run race. Having looked in trouble with over 4f to go, White Nile came back on the bridle briefly before again looking under strong pressure just outside the 2f pole. He hit the front under strong pressure inside the final furlong and stayed there until the line when he was nabbed down the outside by Stormy Weather who got up in the final strides. Although he lost nothing in defeat, I think Winston thought he had the race won in the final 25 yards as he put down the whip and resorted to pushing him out with only his hands but he got done close home down the outside.

That race is decent but not outstanding form but I think he'll have a learnt a lot from that day and I think he'll really come into his own with another year on his back now a 4 year old. A 2lb rise to a mark of 80 seems very fair and there is no doubt in my mind that this €215,000 purchase is quite a bit better than his current mark. Although its obviously unclear if he'll need the run or not, David Simcock could have found a much easier contest than this if he needs the run and I'm hoping they'll be going all out for the this decent prize today. William Buick very much catches the eye with a 17% strike rate for the trainer and a 31% strike rate for powerful owner Sir Robert Ogden and I'm very much hoping the jockey booking is an indication that a big run is expected. Apparently there has been an absolute deluge of rain tonight at York on top of ground that was watered (3mm) so it looks set to be soft ground which shouldn't be a problem for White Nile as all his runs to date have come with cut in them. He's bagged a very nice draw in stall 5 and David Simcock comes here with his horses in decent if not amazing form. The same trainer/owner combination are come here double handed with Castilio Del Diablo and Jamie Spencer sporting the first colours but I'm hoping that's only because the absence White Nile has to overcome. David Simcock seemed to be quite a big fan of White Nile when discussing him in his stable tour last year and he said he'll easily start 1m6f which could help a lot as the rain could have made this a very testing 12f. Although he may need the run, I'm definitely willing to take a chance on him being fully fit today at 14/1 and if ready to do himself justice I think a very big run could be on the cards and hopefully he'll land this valuable price on just his 4th career start.

3.40 York

Moviesta 6/1

The likely soft ground will be a massive disadvantage for Sole Power and won't be favourable for Shea Shea so I'm siding with Bryan Smart's remarkably consistent and progressive sprinter Moviesta who took the step up to Group company in his stride when scoring impressively at Goodwood over 5f in the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes 3 weeks ago. With only 9 career starts to date, this 3 year old has only been out of the first 3 once in his career when finishing 8th on his seasonal reappearance but since then he's been absolutely flying winning 3 and going down very narrowly in 2nd on his 5 subsequent starts. After winning at Doncaster and over this C+D on soft ground, Moviesta did remarkably well to be beaten only a neck over 6f at York off a mark of 93 having pulled so hard and he was denied by a head off a mark of 98 at Newmarket over the same trip last month and he was very unlucky to not win both races. A real speed merchant who has a tremendous cruising speed, Moviesta relished the drop in trip and better company when running out an impressive winner at Goodwood earlier this month. Tardily away from the stalls which is unlike him, Moviesta actually came off the bridle midway through the race which is very unlike him as he was probably a bit further back than he ideally wants. Nevertheless, he powered through a gap inside the final furlong and despite edging left he scored by 1.5L. Despite facing tougher opposition, I think Moviesta relished going against horses who have the ability to go a break neck speed which just isn't sustainable by handicappers and although he's undoubtedly facing true Group 1 sprinters today I think he'll enjoy the increased pace even more. Drawn in stall 17, you've got to hope he's on the right side if they break into 2 groups and Tickled Pink should provide good pace for the high drawn horses. Moviesta clearly goes very well at York judged on his win and 2nd at the track and soft ground doesn't seem an issue to him judged on his C+D victory on his only start with give underfoot. Clearly loving every second of racing, this 3 year old has improved with every start this year and although the step up to Group 1 company is a big one I've seen nothing that leads me to doubt that he's got the ability to compete at this level. Regular pilot Paul Mulrennan is on board again to resume an excellent partnership and I think Moviesta looks a knocking each way bet given both his consistency and tremendous form. However, I'm quietly confident that Moviesta will take the step up in class in his stride and I think this is a sprinter very much going places.

rossom

4.55 York

Hay Dude 8/1

I was oh so impressed with Hay Dude's manner of victory 2 weeks at Haydock 2 weeks ago and I think the handicapper has got it horribly wrong by only putting him up 4lb. Elaine Burke's 3 year old has been steadily progressive over since upped to a mile (had a blip at Doncaster 3 starts back) and the manner of his latest victory leads me to believe there is a lot more to come with only 8 career starts to date. An easy winner from the more experienced and subsequent French Group 1 2nd Anna's Pearl on debut in testing conditions over 7f at Ayr, it took Hay Dude until his 5th career start and 3rd start as a 3 year old to regain the winning thread when scoring by a nose when upped to a mile for the first time at Haydock back in May off a mark of 90. After disappointing at Doncaster, Hay Dude ran a fine 3rd off a mark of 95 2 starts back at Ayr when he travelled beautifully through the race in a slowly enough run race where he couldn't quicken when asked by Tom Eaves as he was beaten 1.5L in 3rd. The winner looks smart winning 3 all starts since his debut whilst Mark Johnston's runner up won 4 starts later off the same mark for a decent prize at Brighton. A stronger pace really helped Hay Dude when winning under top weight LTO as he won with a lot more in hand than the 3/4L margin suggests. Today's jockey Danny Tudhope took the ride for the first time that day as he settled at the rear of mid division on the rail. Heading by the 3f pole, Tudhope sat there with a load of horse under him and stayed penned in until about 1.5f to go as he switched his mount wide to come with his challenge. Tudhope very confidently never resorted to using his whip as he quickened nicely to lead inside the final furlong under hands and heels riding and he was well in command at the finish. He looked to win with a load in hand and that form has already been boosted with the 3rd Gabrials Kaka (would have finished 2nd with a clearer run) bolting up by over 3L off the same mark at Pontefract the other day. Hay Dude has been raised 4lb to a mark of 99 and I don't know what race the handicapper was watching as he deserved a greater hike than that. I'm not complaining, however, and I think he's got a great chance in this as a result. He again carries a big weight of 9-6 but clearly carries weight very well and I think he's a horse that will earn some Black Type very soon. All his form since debut has come on a quicker surface but he won't have any issue with conditions judged on how he won on heavy ground on debut and hopefully the weight doesn't hamper his chances if very testing. The draw in stall 10 shouldn't be too much of an issue as he should be held up and Elaine Burke has her horses running very well at present. If getting a clear run and a good pace to aim at, I'm confident of a big run and I think Hay Dude could take a lot of stopping in

6.25 Newcastle

Cockney Sparrow 10/3

Cockney Sparrow was a revelation when bough into John Quinn's yard to go hurdling winning 3 times including when bolting up at the Aintree Festival and I think this 4 year old has an awful lot to offer for her new yard on the flat. Formerly with Peter Chapple-Hyam, Cockney Sparrow followed up victory in a Maiden on 2nd career start last March when bolting up by an eased down 7L on handicap debut off a mark of 71 at Beverley last April. Her form for Chapple-Hyam tailed off a bit although she signed off her time with him with a good 3rd off her current mark of 78 when a fast finishing 1L beaten 3rd in a better race than this last October. Following a wonderful debut season over hurdles for her new handler, Cockney Sparrow went off a well supported favourite over 12f at York back in May off this mark when she finished a fairly luckless 2.5L beaten 6th. In a slightly better contest than this, Michael O'Connell got stuck looking for a gap that never materialised and he sensibly was easy on her as she wasn't beaten very far without having a hard race. That race has worked out quite well and I definitely feel she's better than her current mark. After a long spell of racing that saw her pretty active in 12 races since making he debut last March, I think it was very sensible for John Quinn to freshen her up with her 100 day break and I'm sure its done her the world of good. This race doesn't look too strong as an awful lot of the runners in the field come into the race out of form. From a good draw in stall 5, I expect a very bold showing from Cockney Sparrow and I very much feel she'll excel on the flat just as she did over hurdles in the care of John Quinn.

rossom

I had to do a double take when I saw the market for Goodwood's Celebration Mile on Saturday and saw Educate 20/1. Granted, he's got to take a big, big step forward to get involved in this Group 2 but he definitely hasn't stopped improving yet and his current price tag is ridiculous. I think everyone knows how highly I rate him but I'm not going to lie and say I'm very confident. I strongly believe he has more than enough ability to win Group Races over 10f but I am slightly worried if he's good enough to win a contest of this nature over 1m. This looks a very decent renewal with Thistle Bird coming into this on the back of a blinding 2nd in the Nassau Stakes whilst Afsare demolished a Group 3 field LTO and Educate will have to raise his game substantially to get involved. I do think there is a fair chance and I'm very hopeful that he will but I couldn't be brimming with confidencel. Nonetheless, 20/1 is an absolutely ridiculous price and I don't think anyone could leave him unbacked at that price.

Overthelast

My fancies were based on good to firm ground. The 20 mil of rain from that thunderstorm last night has changed it to good to soft so you can pretty much draw a line through my 3 fancies

Anyone know why tony hamilton is not on gabrial (3.05 york) ? Did lee get a retainer from koukash?

Slattsy

Ah bollox has the ground changed? Is it soft or even heavy??

Dubron

Was going to lump on Sole Power, poxy rain! I'd say David Barron is raging he didn't leave Pearl Secret in now. Moviesta/Slade Power the value now.

ste2010

Another attempt at flat tipping. Third time and the result currently stands at 1-1 for win/loss.

Certeva in Hamilton 7.05 is Brendan Powell's only horse having travelled 360m approx. beaten C and D a few starts back by a neck and won LTO out this progressive sort has gone up 6lbs which is completely negated by the jockey claim. Draw is fine and I'm hoping this baby cruises to victory at a nice
Price of 7-1

superfurry1

Winterlude,Caucaus,Gabriel,Tickled pink,SirCharlie Kunz, Ebn Arab and Finish line. Hopefully the First horse crosses the finish line before the last.;)

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

Ah bollox has the ground changed? Is it soft or even heavy??

Last report I saw was below- Good to Soft. Might dry out during the day but they got a right downpour last night.

"0945: Good morning and welcome to York for day three of the Ebor Meeting, or Nunthorpe day if you like. We've had 20mm of rain overnight following a bit of a thunderstorm and the ground is now Good to Soft all round. However, it's glorious now with visible streaks of sweat already making there way down my back (I can't take my jacket off yet as the creases won't have fallen out of my shirt - was in a rush this morning) and it feels like it could be a hot one. So, the ground will be drying and we could even be 'Good' by the time the Nunthorpe comes around. Showers are forecast today, but much later on. Right, what do you fancy? "

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8884114/live-york-ebor-meeting-blog

Slattsy

Ok with the ground changing a lot of my fancies from last night are basically null and void !!
There's 2 or 3 i like today, but i cant say im overly confident. Here goes:

1.55 - Castilo Del Diablo
2.30 - Times Up
3.05 - Gabrial (NAP)

Slattsy

tryfix wrote: »

Like Azeemah a lot in that tricky 2.30 race.

EDIT : He's a Dubawi and the soft ground is likely to scupper his chances.

I thought Dubawi's love soft ground ?

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

I thought Dubawi's love soft ground ?

Depends on the horse, I suppose, but his stock are perceived to be better on firm ground. Poets Voice did need it soft, and some of the other good ones were equally at home on good to soft. I still think this horse Ahzeemah would be better on Gd to Firm.

• He is marginally better on right handed courses, performs better at southern courses and is much better in long distance races. He does well on firmish ground.

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/turf-sire-dubawi(ire)

Slattsy

tryfix wrote: »

Depends on the horse, I suppose, but his stock are perceived to be better on firm ground. Poets Voice did need it soft, and some of the other good ones were equally at home on good to soft. I still think this horse Ahzeemah would be better on Gd to Firm.



http://www.flatstats.co.uk/turf-sire-dubawi(ire)

I wasnt doubting you, i just know Dubawi himself was best on soft (Irish 2000)

rossom

White Nile definitely one for the notebook. Will come on a bundle for that 4th and Buick wasn't overly harsh on him for no reason.

Slattsy

Did i not tell you's - Dubawi's love soft ground

carpothepunk

My favorite sire. He is ****ing banging them out at the minute. Buyers finally realizing too, 2mill through the sales last week, I think.

Overthelast

Kevin Ryans Derbyshire has been well supported for the 4.20 @ York. Its a maiden but there's been a lot of cash for it this morning. 6's in to 3's.

He's carrying my loot today.

kiers47

So far 2/3 this week at York.
1 bet today and I have probably picked a teapot maiden. Ha.
Really keen on the godolphin horse golden town he fell out of the boxes the last day and was green as grass took an age to get going and finished like a train. He will hopefully know his job today and have taken some 3/1 earlier.
Only bet today so he gets the Nap.

Backstreet Moyes

Overthelast wrote: »

Kevin Ryans Derbyshire has been well supported for the 4.20 @ York. Its a maiden but there's been a lot of cash for it this morning. 6's in to 3's.

He's carrying my loot today.

I can't remember where i read it but Ryan is supposed to be raving about this horse. Although first time out at York it will be a small bet for me.

I always back Moviesta but my whole weekend depends on Shea Shea.

Overthelast

kiers47 wrote: »

So far 2/3 this week at York.
1 bet today and I have probably picked a teapot maiden. Ha.
Really keen on the godolphin horse golden town he fell out of the boxes the last day and was green as grass took an age to get going and finished like a train. He will hopefully know his job today and have taken some 3/1 earlier.
Only bet today so he gets the Nap.

Hope you took each way. You'll be following Derbyshire home :pac::pac::pac:

Overthelast

Nuts102 wrote: »

I can't remember where i read it but Ryan is supposed to be raving about this horse. Although first time out at York it will be a small bet for me.

I always back Moviesta but my whole weekend depends on Shea Shea.

He has a Racing Post entry. I'm just following the cash. Spent a worthless time trawling the card yesterday only for the rain to arrive so I just couldn't get stuck into the form again. I'm being lazy.

UrbanSea

Derbyshire will need to be a nice horse to win that first time out. Master the World is a big each way price at 8s in that

Overthelast

This maiden will be the biggest betting heat of the day!

kiers47

Overthelast wrote: »

Hope you took each way. You'll be following Derbyshire home :pac::pac::pac:

Haha no unfortunately it was only 1/5 odds with the bookies I can bet with so just win.
We shall see I thought he shaped ridiculously well the last day.
Maidens wouldn't be the most lucrative betting medium for me so your bet is probably safe. ;-)

DyldeBrill

Last 2 days have been great for me wish I could say the same about today. Shea Shea on this and I'm finished

carpothepunk

Cant understand all the money for Sole Power. swiss spirit/shea shea/moviesta my idea of the three

klairondavis

Boilover again in the Nunthorpe.

UrbanSea

Call me an after timer I don't care BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Jwala.jpg

Johner

Delighted for Steve Drowne! Also delighted for my bank balance that I decided against having a bet today, would have lost my arsehole.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

So far 2/3 this week at York.
1 bet today and I have probably picked a teapot maiden. Ha.
Really keen on the godolphin horse golden town he fell out of the boxes the last day and was green as grass took an age to get going and finished like a train. He will hopefully know his job today and have taken some 3/1 earlier.
Only bet today so he gets the Nap.

Get in went off a nice little price in the end. Hacked up!!

Overthelast

kiers47 wrote: »

Get in went off a nice little price in the end. Hacked up!!

Darn it!

ste2010

Reckon alubari could be a plot from mcguinness in the next at Wexford. Ew try small stakes

Johner

O'Meara is absolutely flying.

Overthelast

ste2010 wrote: »

Another attempt at flat tipping. Third time and the result currently stands at 1-1 for win/loss.

Certeva in Hamilton 7.05 is Brendan Powell's only horse having travelled 360m approx. beaten C and D a few starts back by a neck and won LTO out this progressive sort has gone up 6lbs which is completely negated by the jockey claim. Draw is fine and I'm hoping this baby cruises to victory at a nice
Price of 7-1

He's jumping up two grades (a big ask). At the prices, I like Noble Alan with another amatuer knocking off a useful 7lbs putting him on a very handy mark of 71 & he's dropping in grade but I'm not having a bet (my money is still running at york today!)

Good luck with it Ste!

mr.jingle

Mullins has a mare on Pique Sous there!

UrbanSea

A 2 year old Dunkirk colt owned by Coolmore smashed the track record at Saratoga on his debut

UrbanSea

I don't know if it was a bad ride. He made himself look like a mug sitting confidently, but the horse just couldn't get by, don't think he found a thing off the bridle there, Marchese showed a nice attitude when he came to him

mr.jingle

UrbanSea wrote: »

I don't know if it was a bad ride. He made himself look like a mug sitting confidently, but the horse just couldn't get by, don't think he found a thing off the bridle there, Marchese showed a nice attitude when he came to him

True enough could have went another furlong and he still may not have gone by but he does really make himself look like he's going to cruise on by and then the gets beat a short head/neck and the knives will inevitably be out for him, if he'd pushed sooner and got beat the same i'd have no qualms on it, just hate seeing jockeys look like that and then get done on the line.

kiers47

They landed some touch in the bumper in killbegan there. 50/1 this morning went off 9/2 third favourite.

Howjoe1

Upsanddowns wins the 8.05 Kilbeggan @ 9/2

50/1 this morning:eek:

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

A 2 year old Dunkirk colt owned by Coolmore smashed the track record at Saratoga on his debut

Got a name?

Is it Havana?

http://www.pedigreequery.com/havana20

UrbanSea

It certainly is mr fix

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

It certainly is mr fix

Interesting, they paid well for him and it boosts their own first season sire at the same time..


http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/maidenwatch/archive/2013/08/22/havana-is-a-financial-mogul-with-a-touch-of-poetry.aspx

UrbanSea

He won 48 thousand dollars for that maiden, not half bad.

ste2010

Overthelast wrote: »

He's jumping up two grades (a big ask). At the prices, I like Noble Alan with another amatuer knocking off a useful 7lbs putting him on a very handy mark of 71 & he's dropping in grade but I'm not having a bet (my money is still running at york today!)

Good luck with it Ste!

Cheers for that..didn't even spot it :-( did well enough in the end though just not good enough

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

He won 48 thousand dollars for that maiden, not half bad.

His sire stands at only $10,000, those yanks believe in value. That Dunkirk ( $3.7m yearling ) has a cracking pedigree. Wouldn't mind seeing a few of his make their way over here.

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody know anything about WAr Spirit in the first at Newmarket. He was talked about as Hannon's Coventry horse before his first run where he was well beaten. I am looking for reasons to forgive that run although i can't really.

Nuts102

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody know anything about WAr Spirit in the first at Newmarket. He was talked about as Hannon's Coventry horse before his first run where he was well beaten. I am looking for reasons to forgive that run although i can't really.

Don't know if this helps

http://www.racingindex.com/gallops