100 Bets to Broke AGAIN Flat End of Season

longshotvalue

I'm in need of a new approach, as I'm getting a bit tired of trying to select in the toughest races imaginable (profitable as its been in the long-run the downswings are huge), i.e. sprint handicaps etc.

I'm going to start of another 1 of these 100 bet treads, but there will be a different focus. there will be less selections that usual, almost no EW bets and i wont be only picking handicaps and 25-40/1 shots.. Follow at you peril..

longshotvalue

Bet 1


Ebor York 3:50

I’m going with a previous selection of mine who has run well in this in the past in Saptapadi. Hopefully today has been the plan all year, and I don’t think the soft ground will be much of a disadvantage to him. He has had a few eye-catching runs this year without anything going his way so far. He is worth a small bet at 32 on Betfair
1 Point win 32 Betfair

Bet 2

Newmarket 3:20

Suegioo is more or less proven of this mark and is still a lightly raced horse that could well improve here. He seems a big price given his decent run last time out, and looks to me to have as good a chance as some of the market leaders here. 19.5 on Betfair is a good few points larger than I expected.
1 Point win Betfair 19.5

Bet 3 Goodwood 2:55

Monsieur Chevalier is an old favourite of mine that ran a huge race last time out in a Group 2 over course and distance and just seems to be getting back to form. Although he isn’t drawn great here he worth a small risk at a decent price, as he wont mind the softer ground.


½ Point win Betfair 30

Bet 4 Newmarket 3:55


Mince has everything in her favour here, including softer ground andlooks to be getting back to form after her last run on unsuitable ground. I actually make her favourite to win this and 5/1 looks a huge price, given her opposition here.


2 Points win 6.4 Betfair

longshotvalue

Bet 5 Beverly 2:30

Although the fav looks a tough one to beat here in wouldn’t be convinced that 5 furlongs is his best trip, and he’ll need a lot of luck in running. Masamah ran a great race in this last year and although he doesn’t have the ideal draw, he is very likely to get away ahead here and may be difficult to catch. He is in good form at the moment and the 9/1 on Stanjames and Betfair looks Value.


2 Points win 9/1 Betfair Stanjames

Bet 6 Chester 2:20

Captain Dunne hit me straight away on looking at this race. Although he hasn’t been in form lately he has been tumbling in the weights as a result and still has shown a bit of speed on occasion this year. He has an exception record at chester and with his decent low draw he may not get a better chance to get his head in form this year. The race has vut up a bit and I think the 11/1 currently available with Bet365 is value.


1 Point win 11/1 Bet365

Bet 7 Chester 2:55

Regal Parade came back to for last time with a very good 4th in the Great St Wilfred at Ripon, and I thought he would be a shorter price here. He has won over c&d before and should have a decent shot of his current mark. 14/1 looks a few points too big


1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Bet 8 Chester 3:30

Guarentee has a huge turnaround in the weights here with the favourite from their run at york, and is a lot better drawn which can effect even long races here. He is still a young horse and may be able to improve of this mark. He strikes me as a great EW bet although im not that pushed abut 8/1 shots EW really.


1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Bet 9 Sandown 2:05

Edge Closer, won this with loads in hand last year and has been steadily improving this year without troubling the judge. He has come back down to that mark looks drawn ok along with the fact that he has a 5lbs claimer on today just points to possible improvement today. I have come to him more or less by process of elimination as I don’t fancy anything else here, and 14/1 looks a bit of value.


1 Point win 14/1 Sporting bet 32red and Betfair

longshotvalue

Bet 10 Sandown 3:50

This looks a difficult race but Asatir could have the right profile to step up here at a big price. He ran well here over a shorter trip in the Coral Challenge, and although he was very poor at Goodwood next time out that can happen there. That last run here gave the impression that he would improve for a step up in trip and he looks a bit of value at 20/1.


1 Point win 24 Betfair

longshotvalue

Curragh 4:45

I usually like English raiders in these big Irish handicaps, as the uk races are generally of a better standard. I’m going with 2 decent regulars in these types of races across the water. Global Village looks a particularly big price here, although he wasn’t at his best last time out in Galway he had been of the course for a while and should improve for that run. I’m also going with Anderigo who is proven of this mark and looks to have been getting back to form gradually in his last few races.


1 Point win Global Village 20/1 Generally
1 Point win Anderigo 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 1:55

Excellent Guest is back down to the same mark he won of here earlier this year if the 3lbs claimer is taken into the equation and his Ascot record dictates that he isn’t anywhere near a 25/1 shot here, in what looks a weaker than usual race for the type. I’m also going with a small win bet on Monsieur Chevalier who also has a decent course record and hinted at a revival 2 runs ago.


1 Point EW Excellent Guest 25/1 Lads 365
½ Point win Monsieur Chevalier 25/1 PP

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:05

There are a few here at the higher end of the betting that I could fancy. Confessional is bound to come back to form at some stage but I thought he would be a higher price than 12/1. Prohibit did come back to form somewhat last time out in a race that has worked out well, and in this race where a fair amount of the runners are off form or have gone up too much in the weights he appeals of a mark of 99 here. 12/1 looks value


1 Point win 12/1 various

longshotvalue

Haydock 3:15

I’m going with a gut feeling selection in here Wyborne for the Ellison yard. He is well on the bottom of the weights here and has looked as if he may be ready to improve a few times this season. He has some French form on softer ground and the very light weight will only help n what could be a bit of a slog around here. 33/1 looks great EW value.


1 Point ew 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Portland Handicap Doncaster 2:40

I had been looking at Secret Witness for this at a big price since his good run at Newmarket a few weeks ago. To me he clearly hasn’t been trying too hard in his last 2 runs. Yesterday he broke well and over too long a trip faded in the finish but was handled somewhat tenderly as far as I could see. He has done this before come out and ran well 1 day later and judging by that run yesterday I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was better today over a trip more to his liking. He was 3rd in this last year of 6 lbs higher. 33/1 with 5 places looks good value and I really can see him placed here. I’ll be sticking up another high priced one or 2 in this nearer the off when hopefully some big prices are available on Betfair



1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy Power Bet365 5 places

longshotvalue

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes 3:50

I think that Galileo Rock looks the value here now. His form with Trading Leather looks to have him near the top drawer or 3yo’s and he has more proven consistent form than anything else in the race. I’d be happy with the 7.8 Available on Betfair now and it look worthy of a 2 pt bet


2 Points win 7.8 Betfair

longshotvalue

Leop 2:45

Norville is one of been watching in his last few runs and he loks to be getting back to form a bit after an eye-catching run last time in a better race than this. He is of a great mark on his old form and the current odds of 34 7.4 on Betfair looks value


1 Point win 1 Point Place betfair

longshotvalue

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.


1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET

restingpilgrim

aidankkk wrote: »

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.


1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET

well done nice winner

longshotvalue

Ayr Gold Cup

The first time I looked at this I fancied Hoof IT after his run last time and I was surprised he wasn’t favourite here. He has been gradually improving this year to a very good performance last time out in the Haydock Sprint Cup when he finished 3rd. That run rates him at over 110 in my book and with some more improvement to come he could well be too good for these of 107. He won the Stewards Cup with plenty in hand of 111 a couple of years ago and is still only 6 so cold well get back to that form. He looks to be drawn ok and has gone well on softer ground before although the sun tomorrow won’t be a hindrance. The 16/1 in a few places with 5 places paying looks great value


1 Point EW 16/1 5 Places 365/powers/boyles etc

longshotvalue

Newmarket 4:15

Fratellino has done me a few favours in the past and looks sure to be striking soon of this mark. The 6 furlongs on decent ground here should be ideal. I’ve seen a bit of hope lately of higher marks and this looks a very weak race in comparison to some of the races he has been in. 20/1 Looks value


1 Point win 20/1 Generally

UrbanSea

aidankkk wrote: »

Newmarket 4:15

Fratellino has done me a few favours in the past and looks sure to be striking soon of this mark. The 6 furlongs on decent ground here should be ideal. I’ve seen a bit of hope lately of higher marks and this looks a very weak race in comparison to some of the races he has been in. 20/1 Looks value


1 Point win 20/1 Generally

One I was considering for a long time last night. Hope to see him on polytrack next but very well weighted even if he isn't as good on turf

longshotvalue

Ayr Silver Sup

Thunderball looks to be getting back to form in a big way lately with good runs last time out behind Pearl Ice and a very good run from the wrong side in the Great St Wilfred. He could well be on the wrong side here again drawn in 1 but I’ll go for 1 on each side and the 25/1 looks decent value for a horse proven on this mark and with an exceptional soft ground record. 4 of his 5 wins have come on soft ground.


1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

Ayr 5:00

Tariq Too is a proven soft ground horse who hasn’t raced much this year more than likely because of the ground. This looks a weak enough race and if he can get back to form at all on the softer surface here hell be in with a great shout at a decent looking 12/1 with paddy power.


1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

3:30 Newbury

I’m not sure the 5lbs penalty and softer ground here is enough to make Kingsgate Native a 12/1 shot for this Group 3 race. He has been in good form most of this year and his last run was on softer ground when an excellent 5h in the Nunthorpe. That form is a good bit better than most of this field and given his good performance in this last year 12/1 looks value.


1 Point win 12/1 various

longshotvalue

4:00 Leicester

Pandar is a formally decent Italian horse who hasn’t really shown that much since coming to the UK with Robert Cowell. But I’ve seen a bit of hope in his last few runs and I think the softer ground here will help, given that his best run was on softer ground earlier this year. He is probably better over 6 and I would expect to see him shortly in a 6f handicap but he may be worth a small bet at a big price today as improvement looks to be on the way of a decent mark.


½ Point EW 28/1 Stan James 25/1 elsewhere

racso1975

just out interest aidan how is this working out for you?

longshotvalue

racso1975 wrote: »

just out interest aidan how is this working out for you?

ill update shortly but about +14 or 15 points at the moment. there was a 28/1 winner last week.

racso1975

That's great well done

longshotvalue

Market Rasen 2:40

This looks a decent Chase and there are 2 that I think are well overpriced at the moment. Finger on the Pulse has been running well lately, is of a decent mark on old form as despite being 12 he may well be very hard to know out of the places here with such a low weight. The 25/1 with Stan James looks great value particularly if the 16 runners stay in. Well Regarded as some very decent hurdles form and has started well enough over fences. His mark here of 130 could well be within his grasp and he has a good record fresh.

1 Point EW Finger on the Pulse 25/1 Stan James
1 Point win Well Regarded 14/1 Betfred/Betfair


Chester 4:50

I’m giving Monsieur Chevalier one last chance here in what is a weak race in comparison to what he has been running in over his best trip of 7 furlongs with a great draw in 1 around Chester. The 12/1 from Stan James is too big for any drawn 1 horse around here and he certainly would be capable of this mark if on a going day.

1 Point win 12/1 StanJames

Haydock 3:30

Nothing has gone right for Elusivity so far this year but this race could well be a decent opportunity of a mark he can certainly perform off. It looks a very close race and the 16/1 about my selection looks some of the better value here. He has a couple of runs this year which if he can repeat here he won’t be far away, a good 4th at york of 5lbs higher and a very good 7th at Ascot on the wrong side of 6lbs higher.

1 Point win 16/1 Paddypower/BetVictor

longshotvalue

Newmarket 3:50

Tha’ir sticks out here as a horse with some potential that has been very consistent this year. He is getting the 5lbs 3yo allowance which in all fairness he would need in this race. 25/1 looks a very decent price. I’ve been looking at this race for a while now and I’ve just noticed Fury at a huge price. He is down to a decent mark has had only 2 runs this year, although his last run this year was a disappointment after market support. He was 8th last year in this of 9lbs higher and can surly perform of this mark, despite being a disappointing horse on a number of occasions. 40/1 with 5 places is certainly too big. I’ll go with another Haggis runner here in Arsaadi is proven of this mark after a very good 3rd in the Hunt Cup and has a few other runs this year which would make her price of 66/1 looks very decent..

½ Point win Thair 25/1 Various
1 Point EW Fury 40/1 Various 5 places
½ Point EW Arsaadi 66/1 BetVictor/StanJames

longshotvalue

The Tread is up 13.5 points at the moment

longshotvalue

3:15 Ascot

Difficult looking race where i sort of don’t fancy anything, but that said Hoof It looks a bit of value here at 10/1. He has some form on softer ground and has looked good on his last few runs this year. He wouldn’t need to be near his best to take this race, and anything near his 3rd in the Sprint Cup would suffice here.

2 Points win 10/1 Paddy / 365

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

3:15 Ascot

Difficult looking race where i sort of don’t fancy anything, but that said Hoof It looks a bit of value here at 10/1. He has some form on softer ground and has looked good on his last few runs this year. He wouldn’t need to be near his best to take this race, and anything near his 3rd in the Sprint Cup would suffice here.

2 Points win 10/1 Paddy / 365

Westwood was tipping him up on Twitter earlier on in week.

longshotvalue

2:08 Longchamp

Yellow Rosebud will love the soft ground here and looks overpriced at 30 on Betfair. She will need to improve to take a hand in this but Dermot Weld wouldn’t be sending her over without some kind of chance. Her last run on soft ground was her best yet and shes worth a min bet

½ Point win 30 betfair

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:50

Pastoral Player has a very decent Ascot Handicap Record particularly on softer ground and despite this being his first handicap run in a while I think he has a very decent chance here of this park. He will need a bit of luck in running as hell be played late but that could well work today in these conditions.

1 Point win 17 Betfair

longshotvalue

Redcar 2:50

Dandy Boy, has a bit in hand on this on his best form and I liked the look of his last run which might just signal a return to form shortly. He will like the conditions and in this weaker race 9/1 looks Value, I make him more a 5.1 shot here.

2 Point win 9/1 Ladbrokes / Victor

longshotvalue

Arc

There are a fair few horses that I just can’t fancy in this ground today. The Favorite looks by far the most likely winner, in what looks a sub-standard Arc despite what the general opinion seems to be. The likes of Treve (draw), Intello (trip), Kizuna(quality) all look too short to me. Looking down the list Leading Light is sure to stay, but should really be vulnerable to a fast finisher. Meandre is one I’ve picked for this before and I think the current 50/1 EW with 4 places on Bet365 stands out a mile. One of the big priced horses is sure to get into the placed here and he looks the most likely even though he hasn't been in great form this year. In Addition I like the chances of Very Nice Name of getting placed, he has a good draw and is a consistent animal who may be below top class but might just get involved on a day like today.

1 Point EW 50/1 Meandre Bet365 4 Places

1 Point Place Very Nice Name 28/1 Bet365

longshotvalue

York 5:20

Ask Dad has some decent form in Ireland and although he was poor enough on his first run for this stable any return to form at all will make his current price of 33/1 look a bit of value here. He is on a great career low mark here and I'm tempted to have small EW bet.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Betfred Cesarewitch Newmarket 3:50

I like the look of Recession Proof in this. He improved massively as a hurdler and although he has been off the track for a long time up to his last run which he was bound to need, he is of a very decent looking mark here with an exceptional claimer on. He is only carrying 7:11 which in todays race will really be an advantage. 22/1 looks a decent price with 5 places and well worth a bet.

1 Point EW 22/1 5 Places Various

ste2010

aidankkk wrote: »

Betfred Cesarewitch Newmarket 3:50

I like the look of Recession Proof in this. He improved massively as a hurdler and although he has been off the track for a long time up to his last run which he was bound to need, he is of a very decent looking mark here with an exceptional claimer on. He is only carrying 7:11 which in todays race will really be an advantage. 22/1 looks a decent price with 5 places and well worth a bet.

1 Point EW 22/1 5 Places Various

Best of luck Aido! How are you faring out on your p/l at the moment?
Haven't really done much flat the summer because I'm not knowing enough to make solid assessments but hopinh the jumps season will be a profitable one

longshotvalue

ste2010 wrote: »

Best of luck Aido! How are you faring out on your p/l at the moment?
Haven't really done much flat the summer because I'm not knowing enough to make solid assessments but hopinh the jumps season will be a profitable one

Back to about level in this tread, but up about 120 points on the year, mainly from Grand National winner and Barizan.. Flat stats this year would make embarrassing reading..

longshotvalue

York 3:30

Secret Witness has clearly not being trying all the time lately, and I'm hopeful that today he will be having a go as its one of the last chances of the season for him to get a decent result. His 3rd in the Portland was eye-catching to say the least and if hes on his game today that will put him right in the mix here. 33/1 is big enough to take a chance.

1 Point EW 33/1 Bet365/Lads

longshotvalue

Curragh 3:45

I fancy Norville might strike at some stage soon enough after a few eye-catching runs in these big field Curragh 7 furlong races this year. This is a step down in class so he has a lot of weight today, and id probably prefer to see and decent claimer on but at 28/1 ill have abet in case today is the day.

1 Point EW Norville 28/1 EW Bet Victor

UrbanSea

Think Norville's day will be next time out if he runs over 6 I'd like to see a decent claimer on too for a bit of help

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:45

I noticed what looks like a wrong price with 888 sport for this race in Rebellious Guest for tomorrow. He started of the year of too high a mark but has been steadily coming down in races too strong for him. He has improved in his last 2 runs and was supported last time out in a similar race to this. He is down to his lowest mark with a 5lbs claimer on and will only be carrying 8:06 tomorrow . 50/1 is too big a price as he’s more of a 20/1 shot in my book.

1 Point EW 888sport 50/1

UrbanSea

Crazy price Aidan I was going to back it at 25s yesterday thanks for flagging that

UrbanSea

Where do you see this on their site? Can't find the card

longshotvalue

UrbanSea wrote: »

Crazy price Aidan I was going to back it at 25s yesterday thanks for flagging that

i wasnt around all day.. Really crap site. when i clicked on the price on attheraces it put the bet in the betslip. Price is gone now... Still happy enough with 50s..

That apprentice has a great record for the trainer 22% wins and over 50% placed horses from runners..

UrbanSea

First time ever on that site it is woeful

longshotvalue

2:35 Cheltenham


The NH season is really on now thank god and these 2m4 races aroud here are some of the best on offer. This has a slightly weaker than usual look about it and I fancy that the horse with the most pontential here is Kumbeshwar. He was up against horses too good a few times last year when aquitting himself well, but he has struck me as one that will take the step up in trip in his stride. I had expected him to be around 10 or 12/1 so i'm more than happy about the 16/1 on offer with corals. He does need to tidy up his jumping, but the stable is in great form
.

2 Points win 16/1 Coral

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:45

Having another look a this race I kept stopping at Tartiflettethinking she surly must have a great chance here with a fair amount in her favour. She hasn't been great for a lot of this year after a very good win at the start, but did improve last time out over a shorter trip. Back over 7 Furlongs here on softer ground which she has run well on before, and of a mark below her last win, 25/1 looks great value, considering she has been backed a few times this year, which hopefully means some form at home.


2 Points win 25/1 Various.

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 1:05

Not a lot of time to look today, but Fredo ran well over c&d last time in a similar race and bar a very bad jump at the last would have been much closer. 9/1 looks a few points too big and with the additional 2 lbs. in hand here he is bound to be in the firing line.

2 Points win 9/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 1:35

Ballyadam Brook, has some decent enough form in Ireland behind some fairly classy animals, but looking at his hurdles form I think he will appreciate the better ground here. This is a tough race no doubt but as I was looking at the race I gave him a 20/1 shot and as 33/1 is available he is worth a small value bet here.

½ Point win 33/1 Betvictor Betfair

longshotvalue

Long Run to win tomorrow and King George 100/1.

Long run has had one poor race in his life, that was first time out this year. He is sure to be better tomorrow and if Bobs Worth isn't at fully tuned up tomorrow he stands a very decent chance at big looking odds of 12/1. The soft ground will suit him. Given that and his record in the King George he just isn't 100/1 to do both. It seems doubtful that Bobs Worth will turn up at Kempton.

1 Point 100/1 William hill Long Run both Betfair & King George

longshotvalue

Haydock 1:50

Scanning trough this race looking for and angle and as soon as I had a look at Matthew Riley’s form he is a standout here of his mark. He was a very good 4th in the Bumper at Aintree in 2011, that race could not have worked out any better as its littered with very decent horses. He then just failed to catch Runswick Royal in a soft ground Newcastle novice hurdle, that horses is now rated 140+. He has had one blip in his last run, in which he stayed on after a mistake early on. He has a decent record fresh and is sure to be suited by the step up in trip and soft ground here. 33/1 is a massive price and worthy of a decent EW bet

2 Points EW 33/1 Bet Victor Stan James Betfair

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:25

Utopie Des Bordes has some top class form in France, that could translate well in to this type of race. She also has some very decent run at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet and also at Aintree. I’m hopeful that today’s race was the plan for her this year and with that in mind I’m ignoring her poor enough season opener. The Trip ground and possibly hurdles should be right up her street and she has nice racing weight of 11:00 here. 12/1 looks a nice bet of value.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

I’m going to have an additional saver on this race on an old favorite of mine in Restless Harry, he is off a ridiculously low mark albeit after a number of runs on unsuitable good ground and in the small hop that the plan is for a better run today he’s worth a small gamble at 48 on Betfair, more to avoid the annoyance of watching a decent run today with no money on at those odds.

1 Point win 48 Betfair 40/1 Generally