Thursday

ste2010

I see gauvain is running tomorrow in a handicap hurdle..if it was over fences I'd jump in blindfolded! In Hobbs yard now, I doubt they'll go hard at him tomorrow given how class he was and wouldn't want to risk him 1st run back. 8-1 though and given he's about 20lbs better than all the rest if you translate his fence form its extremely tempting...any opinions?

ste2010

Comehomequitely 4.30 FFOS LAS tomorrow down in weight, down in class. Running in G2 placing 2nd over a year ago and won one at none other than FFOS LAS be it a G4.

Im hoping Tomorrow is the make hay day for this one and at 22-1 ill take an ew bet on this fella showing his true colours in this company

Overthelast

Interesting indeed. You'd imagine this is a pipe opener with a view to some early season chases, maybe with Chelt Nov meeting the target.

As regards chase/hurdle form, as you well know horses are often 10/20/30 or x lbs better over fences than hurdles. But might be worth a chance given it's so long since he was tried over the smaller obstacles.

I can only admire your steely determination to seek out betting propositions in the jumps game right through the peak of the flat season. Youuuuu!

ste2010

Overthelast wrote: »

Interesting indeed. You'd imagine this is a pipe opener with a view to some early season chases, maybe with Chelt Nov meeting the target.

As regards chase/hurdle form, as you well know horses are often 10/20/30 or x lbs better over fences than hurdles. But might be worth a chance given it's so long since he was tried over the smaller obstacles.

I can only admire your steely determination to seek out betting propositions in the jumps game right through the peak of the flat season. Youuuuu!

It's all I have until end of October :-) !
It seems to be easier to single out winners off season in the non handicaps

Slattsy

Got a decent chance to look through some form tonight, so im quietly confident of decent runs from the following tomorrow, i hope

1.55 - Sleeper King
Will love the ground and carries some decent form into the race where I think 75% of the runners have no chance. Very little quality here but it makes the price decent on SK.
2.30 - Lucky Kristale
The form of beating Rizeena took a huge boost on Sunday. Tough to beat and NAP of the day.
3.05 - Wentworth
I think this fella could could turn out to be Group class and he's way ahead of the handicapper. IMO
3.40 - The Fugue
Should be a class above this lot. Will love the ground and the current 3 yr old form doesnt seem great. The 5/2 atm i think is huge, if she didnt have that poor run last time (scoped badly) she'd be closer to evens. All aboard !! Choo choo

Thats all. Although i think Say is the lay of the metting in the 4.20 and i'd fancy Dettori to win that on Our Obsession but its a trappy race.

Johner

I think Venus de Milo might improve past The Fugue. The Fugue has the form in the book though but finds it hard to get her head infront(running in some good race admittedly)

tryfix

Johner wrote: »

I think Venus de Milo might improve past The Fugue. The Fugue has the form in the book though but finds it hard to get her head infront(running in some good race admittedly)

Really like that Venus De Milo, the Irish Oaks was run way to slowly to suit her and she came home best of all. It's a straight battle between her and The Fugue who has a great record at York, a Musidora win and 2nd to Shareta in this last year. Gosden's horses are running a little below par and O'Brien's were on fire today, so yeah I'm going for Venus De Milo too.

mountai

Murtaghs 2 and Obriens 2 lucky 15

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

I see gauvain is running tomorrow in a handicap hurdle..if it was over fences I'd jump in blindfolded! In Hobbs yard now, I doubt they'll go hard at him tomorrow given how class he was and wouldn't want to risk him 1st run back. 8-1 though and given he's about 20lbs better than all the rest if you translate his fence form its extremely tempting...any opinions?

Only a personal opinion but I'm really against the angle of translating chasing form to hurdles. Obviously there have been horses who have won with lower hurdles marks than over fences but a lot of supposed 'good things' looking at ths angle have failed miserably.

UrbanSea

Yeah I'm the same, there is a reason they are rated lower over hurdles and a lot of the time they are just better chasers

Gringo180

Riposte lads

fangee

I'm really stuck for cash.

Haven't had a winner for weeks.

Can Aaidann or Rossom give me ONE for Thursday ?

Slattsy

fangee wrote: »

I'm really stuck for cash.

Haven't had a winner for weeks.

Can Aaidann or Rossom give me ONE for Thursday ?

What am I black or something ???

klairondavis

I think The Fugue will drift tomorrow. She is yet to win over 12 furlongs and the 3yo fillies tend to do well in this race. The weight for age allowance is probably a bit skewed in their favour at this stage of the year.

It could be another good day for Ballydoyle tomorrow. Venus De Millo has a great chance and they look to have found the perfect opportunity for Say to get another win on the board to go with her solitary maiden success at Mallow. She was less than 2 lengths behind Dank at the Curragh two starts back and that form reads very well now.

DyldeBrill

My picks for tomorrow

1.55-Oasis Town e/w 12/1

2.30- J.Wonder 3/1

3.05-Windhoek ew 14/1

fangee

Slattsy wrote: »

What am I black or something ???

I have such a funny story about that. Me ex's mum actually said it at a dinner party when she was missed out for coffee...... The host was black. She didn't even realise what the saying meant but she said it. Quality.

Right C*nt F*cker. Gimme a winner for today. Got €200 to speculate. And I LOVE my EW's down to 5/2.

fangee

ps, was drunk for original post (still only €14.50 for a bottle of Tanqueray here) and super hungover for the above post. Gonna have poached egg and brown toast now but still speculating €200 today to the most convincing post !

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

Only a personal opinion but I'm really against the angle of translating chasing form to hurdles. Obviously there have been horses who have won with lower hurdles marks than over fences but a lot of supposed 'good things' looking at ths angle have failed miserably.

I agree with everything your saying on this. But this scenario is an extreme. if it was a case of gauvain not being on a break and being thrown into the mix with this lot (who are 20-30lbs below his rating via translation I think you could make a case. We see all too often though horses who are 10-20lbs supposedly better off with a switch back to hurdles or to fences and flop. But this is a G1 horse we are talking about you'd expect him to have some ability at some level.

fangee

Slattsy wrote: »

Got a decent chance to look through some form tonight, so im quietly confident of decent runs from the following tomorrow, i hope

1.55 - Sleeper King
Will love the ground and carries some decent form into the race where I think 75% of the runners have no chance. Very little quality here but it makes the price decent on SK.
2.30 - Lucky Kristale
The form of beating Rizeena took a huge boost on Sunday. Tough to beat and NAP of the day.
3.05 - Wentworth
I think this fella could could turn out to be Group class and he's way ahead of the handicapper. IMO
3.40 - The Fugue
Should be a class above this lot. Will love the ground and the current 3 yr old form doesnt seem great. The 5/2 atm i think is huge, if she didnt have that poor run last time (scoped badly) she'd be closer to evens. All aboard !! Choo choo

Thats all. Although i think Say is the lay of the metting in the 4.20 and i'd fancy Dettori to win that on Our Obsession but its a trappy race.

Ok. I'm on. €100 EW on your first selection @ 7/1.

Slattsy

Jesus talk about pressure!

SK was 6s when I put it up last night but is out to 8s now. As a rule of thumb you'd generally like to see a bit of cash for a Ryan horse as he runs a shrewd stable but I'm more than happy with 8 if he stays that price.

fangee

Slattsy wrote: »

Jesus talk about pressure!

SK was 6s when I put it up last night but is out to 8s now. As a rule of thumb you'd generally like to see a bit of cash for a Ryan horse as he runs a shrewd stable but I'm more than happy with 8 if he stays that price.

Ah it's only fun and games.

Like I said - haven't backed a winner for weeks so its over to you guys .......... You can't pick worse than me. I'm just happy not to spend another day studying.

byronbay2

fangee wrote: »

Ok. I'm on. €100 EW on your first selection @ 7/1.

If you're going to follow Slattsy, would you not follow his "Nap of the day" i.e the horse he fancies most today??

fangee

byronbay2 wrote: »

If you're going to follow Slattsy, would you not follow his "Nap of the day" i.e the horse he fancies most today??

All in good time. Building the pot to really get stuck into it.

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

Jesus talk about pressure!

SK was 6s when I put it up last night but is out to 8s now. As a rule of thumb you'd generally like to see a bit of cash for a Ryan horse as he runs a shrewd stable but I'm more than happy with 8 if he stays that price.

The bigger the price, the bigger the certainty....:pac:

Johner

Venus De Milo will probably get outpaced and be one of the first ones of the bridle but when she gets going she will be staying on better than anything, just have to hope she doesn't get going to late. The further the better for her.

Johner

Wild Coco is a non runner due to firm ground.

Johner

Wentworth also a non runner.

kiers47

While I do like the fugue. I think the price of 9/1 about secret gesture is massive she hasn't exactly run a bad race this year and it would be no surprise to see her go close.
I'm also with slattsy in that my NAP is Lucky Cristale.
Just the 2 bets today but if lady nouf drifts any further I might be interested. Although it seems quite significant they have come for the stablemate all morning.

Johner

While J Wonder is definitely improving, Lucky Kristale has the form in the book, big bet for me. The way she came there at Newmarket and pretty much won as she liked against a very good field was impressive. As Slatty has said the second horse was third behind No Nay Never and also the 3th and 5th were 1st and 2nd next time out in the Group 3 at Ascot.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

Venus De Milo will probably get outpaced and be one of the first ones of the bridle but when she gets going she will be staying on better than anything, just have to hope she doesn't get going to late. The further the better for her.

Balls, does that mean Queally will be now on Riposte? Its hard to now where the pace will come from in this race but if its ran at a decent gallop Riposte won't be beaten, but I couldn't back her now with Queally on her :rolleyes:

Morgans

ste2010 wrote: »

I agree with everything your saying on this. But this scenario is an extreme. if it was a case of gauvain not being on a break and being thrown into the mix with this lot (who are 20-30lbs below his rating via translation I think you could make a case. We see all too often though horses who are 10-20lbs supposedly better off with a switch back to hurdles or to fences and flop. But this is a G1 horse we are talking about you'd expect him to have some ability at some level.

I think its dependent on the profile of the horse. Often times if a horse is improving quickly and on the up, they can get away with it. There are very few horses that are incapable over hurdles and outstanding over fences. They are generally benefitting from having a hurdles handicap when they were immature.

If a horse his handicapped to the hilt and over the top as a chaser, out of love with the game, gone shady, and looking to get its head in front against inferior horses, it doesnt work.

You wont know for sure which category Gauvain is in til he runs. BUt at the prices quoted its not an unreasonable punt.

Johner

Gringo180 wrote: »

Balls, does that mean Queally will be now on Riposte? Its hard to now where the pace will come from in this race but if its ran at a decent gallop Riposte won't be beaten, but I couldn't back her now with Queally on her :rolleyes:

Yep Queally is on now!

Overthelast

Have to agree with Slattsy's nap selection. Lucky Cristale has the form in the book. Will probably go off fav

Johner

On Thunder Strike in the first but worried about the ground being abit firm for him.

Johner

Overthelast wrote: »

Have to agree with Slattsy's nap selection. Lucky Cristale has the form in the book. Will probably go off fav

Probably won't because of who trains it. I think the Meehan horse might go off fav. Lucky Kristale should be fav though great value in her at 11/4.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

Yep Queally is on now!

Darn!

superfurry1

Nezar 8-1, j wonder 5-2, hotbed 12-1, secret gesture 7-1, lady nouf 9-1.

All winners Imo:cool: C'mon Jebus help me out for the love of god;)

DyldeBrill

Have Oasis Town in th 1.55 on a small E/W, really fancy this to keep up

Johner

Murtagh is now on one of the favourites Nezar in the first. Buick has failed to arrive. G'man Buick!

Luap

Going to go with Ventura Mist in the first.





Easy Winner! :P

fangee

That's a feeling I'm all too used to.

Gringo180

Mon the Queen Catherine.

Slattsy

fangee wrote: »

That's a feeling I'm all too used to.

Just ran out of the places!

UrbanSea

Has to step up a bit on form but think Alutiq is a big each way price at 33s in this. She has been crying out for the extra furlong and could outrun her odds.

fangee

Slattsy wrote: »

Just ran out of the places!

From possible winner to no dinner. Shít happens.

A place would have sufficed. Would have reinvested in your nap.

Hey ho. I'll wait til Saturday now.

Gringo180

fangee wrote: »

From possible winner to no dinner. Shít happens.

A place would have sufficed. Would have reinvested in your nap.

Hey ho. I'll wait til Saturday now.

Riposte I told you Riposte

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

Has to step up a bit on form but think Alutiq is a big each way price at 33s in this. She has been crying out for the extra furlong and could outrun her odds.

She's a horse I've always liked myself and I do think she's overpriced.

TheMilkyPirate

Boom! Good tipping lads

Johner

YESSSSS. Coppers tonight lads?

Johner

Johner wrote: »

While J Wonder is definitely improving, Lucky Kristale has the form in the book, big bet for me. The way she came there at Newmarket and pretty much won as she liked against a very good field was impressive. As Slatty has said the second horse was third behind No Nay Never and also the 3th and 5th were 1st and 2nd next time out in the Group 3 at Ascot.

Slattsy wrote: »

2.30 - Lucky Kristale
The form of beating Rizeena took a huge boost on Sunday. Tough to beat and NAP of the day.

kiers47 wrote: »

While I do like the fugue. I think the price of 9/1 about secret gesture is massive she hasn't exactly run a bad race this year and it would be no surprise to see her go close.
I'm also with slattsy in that my NAP is Lucky Cristale.
Just the 2 bets today but if lady nouf drifts any further I might be interested. Although it seems quite significant they have come for the stablemate all morning.

Overthelast wrote: »

Have to agree with Slattsy's nap selection. Lucky Cristale has the form in the book. Will probably go off fav

carpothepunk

Top stuff, boys