Log to the base e

seklly

Have deposited €200 to Bet365 so have €100 bonus there and €50 to Paddy Power for any potential specials.

Aim is to not lose it on the first weekend of the premiership!!

I've taken advantage of the paddy power 5-fold special offer of free bet next weekend if it loses.

Starting Bank: €350

Bet 1
€10 on Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea & Man City @ ~5/1 (PP)
L -€10 (+€10 free bet)

Can see all of the above winning, worth a shot with free bet if it loses.

Bet 2
€20 on Sturridge Anytime @ 20/21 (B365)
W +€19.05

Sturridge will be the main man up front at least for the time being, plenty of quality, should get some chances today.

Current Bank: €320

seklly

Sturridge bet in before half time.

Staying with the Liverpool match, it's looking pretty open at the moment with Stoke pressing forward leaving gaps at the back. Gonna take a chance on there being another goal.

Bet 3
€20 on Over 1.5 Goals Liverpool v Stoke @ 4/6 (B365)
L -€20

Current Bank: €339.05

seklly

Don't know how there wasn't another goal, plenty of chances including a missed penalty! Great game for a 1-0!

A few bets for the 3 o'clock games, I expect goals in the West Brom v Southampton game, lots of attacking players and plenty of pre season goals for both teams. Giroud has been on fire pre season so taking a chance on him and I'll take evens for the prolific RVP. Another reason for the 3 goalscorer bets today are because these were the 3 last minute changes that I dropped from my fantasy football team!

Bet 4
€20 on Over 2.5 Goals West Brom v Southampton @ 17/20 (B365)
L -€20

Bet 5
€20 Giroud Anytime Goalscorer @ 21/20 (B365)
W +€21

Bet 6
€20 RVP Anytime Goalscorer @ 1/1 (B365)
W +€20

Current Bank: €279.05

seklly

Bet 4 didn't go to plan with a single goal in the 90th minute from Lambert.

Giroud scores after 5 minutes in bet 5, we looked like we were playing some nice stuff and then lost the plot with some very dodgy defending.

Bet 6 yet to play

Current Bank: €320.05

seklly

Bet 6 in after 34 minutes with a very good goal.

Current Bank: €360.05

seklly

A few for the UFC tonight.

Can see Sonnen winning, Rua doesn't have the stamina, still dangerous though. Think McGreggor will stop Max. Also can't see past Lauzon and Faber. Will probably have a few multiples later as well.

Bet 7
€20 Sonnen win @ 1/1 (B365)
W +€20

Bet 8
€20 McGregor KO @ 10/11 (PP)
L -€20

Bet 9
€20 Lauzon/Faber double @ 19/20 (B365)
L -€20 (1/2 win)

Bet 10
€5 Lauzon v Johnson FOTN @ 11/2 (PP)
L -€5

Current Bank: €295.05

seklly

2 multiples in the UFC

Bet 11
€3 McGregor, McDonald, Lauzon, Matt Brown, Faber, Sonnen 6-fold @ ~10/1 (B365)
L -€3 (5/6 win)

Bet 12
€2 Same as bet 11 + Mike Brown, Howard, Browne 9-fold @ ~230/1 (B365)
L -€2 (7/9 win)

Current Bank: €290.05

seklly

Great card although the results didn't go all my way tonight.

Masterclass from McGregor, think he would have got the KO if he hadn't injured the knee in the 2nd.

Very surprised by the performance from Michael Johnson, he dominated Lauzon for 3 rounds, the 1st round was key there, screwed a lot of my bets though!

Great submission from Chael in the main event, thought it would go the distance myself but will take that to rescue the night!

A few for tomorrow, Spurs should have too much for newly promoted Crystal Palace. Also seeing as the 3 players I benched in the fantasy football scored today, I'm gonna have a bet on the 3 I ended up picking!

Bet 13
€30 Spurs Win @ 3/4
W +€22.50

Bet 14
€10 Soldado, Lukaku, Dzeko Anytime Goalscorer Treble @ 19/3
L -€10

Current Bank: €290.05

seklly

Spurs win 1-0 with a nervy final 10 minutes, they had a few good chances to finish Palace off but Palace held on well and the treble substitution made a real difference, but a wins a win!

Soldado also scores to help bet 14 but Lukaku starting on the bench doesn't, surprised by that decision but who am I to argue with the special one!

Current Bank: €342.55

seklly

Can see Chelsea getting a few goals in this and Hull didn't have a great offensive record last year (the worst of the promoted teams). Another option would have been the win to nil.

Bet 15
€30 Chelsea -1 @ 8/11
W +€21.81

Current Bank: €312.55

seklly

Chelsea got 2 early goals and looked like they could have destroyed Hull, although they completely took their foot off the pedal allowing Hull back into it, Hull had some good periods and passed it well at times, some good additions to their squad. Bet wins.

Lukaku came on with 15 minutes to go when Chelsea were playing very deep so no chance with bet 14, would have preferred him to be left on the bench there!

Current Bank: €364.37

seklly

In the Real Madrid v Real Betis match I think it's a Madrid win, Ronaldo got quite a few goals last year, I think he'll get quite a few this year!

Bet 16
€15 Ronaldo 1st Goalscorer @ 2/1 (PP)
L -€15

Current Bank: €349.37

seklly

I think Madrid will want to get off to a good start, PSG fielding a strong team as well so speculative double. If both teams are up for it they can hammer the opposition (if!)

Bet 17
€10 Real Madrid -2, PSG -2 Double @ ~10/3
L -€10 (0/2 win)

Current Bank €339.37

seklly

No Goals for Ronaldo last night so bet 16 a loser.

Real and PSG both went 1-0 down early which didn't help bet 17! They had a combined total shots of 61 shots but they could only convert this to 3 goals between them!

One for this evening, City have a lot of attacking talent at Home to Newcastle who have a shaky defense (especially on the road). Expect them to cover the handicap.

Bet 18
€30 Man City -1 @ 4/5

Current Bank: €309.37

cadete

goin well mate, although you have alot of bets already placed
im on the city game tonight aswell think they will win fairly comfortably,
best of luck will keep an eye to see how your doin

seklly

Yes I know that the frequency is quite high, I think it's a combination of the excitement of the new season starting and working through the bonus requirements on Bet365.

Looking back through my bets so far, I'd make them all again with maybe the exception of bets 4, 16 and 17 which were a bit loose. The rest of the losers went close.

I'm not picking certain bets for this log and doing others in real life, any bet I place in real life will go in here so I'll be able to analyse where I'm going wrong/right. This is also to try to limit the amount of 'risky' bets I go for although there will be the occasional multiple!

I also think City should win this fairly easily but anything can happen in these start of the season games, especially with new additions to the squad that may take time to bed in.

seklly

Missed the game tonight but it looked pretty one sided from the stats, will check the highlights tomorrow.

Current Bank: €363.37

seklly

PP have applied my free bet from bet 1 (which was only let down by Arsenal!)

I'm going to place it on the CL qualifiers tonight. I'll take a chance on PSV who are 3 games into Eredivisie and top it with 3 wins vs AC Milan in Serie A who are yet to begin. Also Lyon, who top Ligue 1 after 2 games vs Sociodad who just started the Primera Division at the weekend.

Both teams are home and will be looking to bring an advantage into tricky away legs. I'd expect a few goals in both matches and hope the home sides can get the bigger share.

Bet 19
€10 Lyon/PSV double @ 17/4 (free bet)
L (free bet)

Current Bank: €363.37

seklly

Bet 19 never had a chance!

Looking at the Chelsea v Villa game later on I'm going to go with a couple of bets.

I think Villa will go out to frustrate Chelsea the same way they did away to Arsenal. There were a lot of 'enthusiastic' challenges in that match and I though there could have been more cards than the 9 produced.

Also looking at the ref, he has been averaging over 4 cards per match for the last 20 odd games.

I'm also expecting some goals, there's always a threat from Benteke and goal threats all over the pitch for Chelsea. The last 5 premiership encounters have gone over 2.5 goals with Villa scoring in 4 of those and the last 12 Villa away matches in the premiership have gone over 2.5 goals with Villa scoring in 10 of them. The home stats for Chelsea are slightly less impressive with 7 of their last 10 home premiership games going over 2.5 goals and they have conceded in 7 of their last 11 premiership home games.

I fancy it to go over 2.5 goals but no bet on that as the odds are too low.

Bet 20
€20 on Over 3.5 Asian Total Cards @ 1/1
W +€20

Bet 21
€30 on BTTS @ 5/6
W +€25

Current Bank: €313.37

seklly

In the Arsenal match tonight, i think the 'injury crisis' has been blown out of proportion, although a few more and we will be in trouble. Turkey is always a difficult place to visit but I think Fenerbahce will play an attacking game leaving them open on the counter.

I'm expecting (hoping for!) a bounce back after the weekends result and think we've a good few match winners there out to prove a point.

Bet 22
€20 Arsenal Win @ 13/10
W +€26

Current Bank: €293.37

seklly

All 3 bets came in this evening, around 30 fouls in the Chelsea v Villa game with Villa getting 3 yellows to Chelsea's 1. Both teams scored with Benteke scoring again and it went over 2.5 as well.

I thought Arsenal played very well tonight although Fenerbahce were shocking. Ramsey played a blinder and was rewarded with a goal and an assist. It will be a big shock if we don't make it through to the group stages so that's a huge relief as tonight could have gone either way.

Current Bank: €434.37

seklly

I think Udinese and Sevilla playing at home tonight against lower class oppostition will want to put these ties to bed. So will take a chance on the handicaps.

Bet 23
€20 Udinese -1/Sevilla -1 Double @ ~2/1
L -€20

Current Bank: €414.37

seklly

Swansea playing well in this match with a few chances already in the 2nd half.

Bet 24
€10 Swansea -4 @ 3/1 (Current score 3-0)
L -€10

Current Bank: €404.37

seklly

Bonyyyyyy!

seklly

Pozuelooo! Nice finish

seklly

Both bets lose, surprised by the Udinese result and Swansea were winning 5-0 but let in a consolation goal with a few minutes to go.

Current Bank €404.37

seklly

A few for tonight. Monaco playing well and on a great run at the moment, they've won their last 5 matches and covered the handicap on 4 of those occasions, playing a Toulouse team who haven't won in 5 matches, it's theirs to lose!

Also a few in the FAI cup, they're cup ties so anything can happen. Derry, Rovers and Shels all playing non league teams so 'should' win easy enough.

The last 6 Finn Harps v Cobh Ramblers matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Dundalk have won 7 out of their last 8 home matches and Limerick have lost 4 out of their last 5 away matches.

Bet 25
€30 Monaco-1 @ 20/21
L -€30

Bet 26
€20 Derry-1/Rovers-1/Shels-1 Treble @ ~2/1
L -€20 (1/3 win)

Bet 27
€20 Dundalk Win/Finn Harps v Cobh Over 2.5 Goals Double @ 8/5
L -€20 (1/2 win)

Bet 28
€4.37 All of the above 6-fold @ ~14/1
L -€4.37 (2/6 win)

Current Bank: €330

seklly

All bets lose last night, looking to today I think Arsenal have too much quality for Fulham (maybe it's rose tinted glasses!). We're fielding a strong 11, Sagna is a worry at CB but he did well there pre-season. I'm hoping Fulham attack and leave gaps. I can see both scoring today but think Arsenal should edge it.

Bet 29
€30 Arsenal Win @ 10/11
W +€27.28

Current Bank: €300

seklly

Arsenal looked really good today, Cazorla had a great game and was involved in everything. Ramsey also controlled thing in the centre of the park, he's getting better and better. Good to see Podolski get a brace as well.

Current Bank: €357.28

seklly

In the 3 o'clock matches I'm going with a treble of 3 teams that impressed me last weekend playing 3 who didn't!

€20 Everton Win/Norwich DC/West Ham DC Treble @~3/1
L -€20 (1/3 win)

Current Bank: €337.28

seklly

Slightly unlucky there, Norwich had the majority of possession and attempts but weren't able to score against 10 man Hull, Everton I think edged it and hit the woodwork twice in the last 10 minutes but like Norwich, were unable to convert their chances to goals, Hull's keeper Foster getting MOTM says a lot.

In the 5:30 match I think it should be even enough but can see a few goals. I'm going with Benteke to continue is great run at good odds at home, leading the line and taking the penalties so should get a few chances.

€25 Benteke Anytime @ 7/5
L -€25

Current Bank: €312.28

seklly

Juventus pushing forward in this one, they have all the possession.

€20 on Juventus HT @ 7/4
L -€20

Current Bank: €292.28

seklly

Had a few bets yesterday, up and down, was out and about so no chance to post, the shock with Cardiff winning cost me a few quid!

€50 PSG @ 1/2
W +€25

€30 PSG-1 @ 13/10
L -€30

€20 Mayo-3.5 @ 3/4
W +€15

€25 Spurs @ 8/11
W +€18.19

€25 Man City-1 @ 6/5
L -€25

€20 Man City/Spurs/Inter/PSG @ ~4/1
L -€20 (3/4 win)

Current Bank: €275.47

seklly

One bet this evening in the Man Utd v Chelsea match, It's a hard match to call either way, I think it might end up in a draw, evens for RVP to score is nice as well.

Looking at the cards market, Martin Atkinson takes charge of this match and he has dished out 5 cards or less in 18 of his last 20 matches.

Both Chelsea matches this season and Uniteds one last weekend have also had 5 cards or less.

Looking at the head to head, the last 4 matches between these two have had 5 cards or less.

Also last season, United matches averaged 28 points at home while Chelsea matches averaged 37.5 points away.

So the stats point to 5 cards or less which I will take at 11/10 on Bet365, I will be taking advantage of their free in-play bet as well so will be placing €100 on with €50 refunded if it doesn't come in. So essentially I'm getting 11/5 on this outcome.

€50 Under 5.5 Cards @ 11/10
€50 Under 5.5 Cards @ 5/6 (in-play - refund if loses)
W +€96.67

Current Bank: €225.47

seklly

Very boring match, they both looked happy with the draw, Chelsea more so. The bet went as expected with only 2 yellows given so happy with that.

Current Bank: €372.14

seklly

One for tonight, Liverpool fielding a strong team in the league cup and are strong defensively taking on League 1 club Notts County.

€25 Liverpool Win to Nil @ 5/6

Current Bank: €347.14

seklly

Last one lost, one bet for the weekend as I'm off for a picnic tomorrow! I think there'll be a backlash from Man City after the loss to Cardiff. Although I did think Cardiff were quite impressive at home to them, I don't think anyone will have an easy time there this year. And Dortmund have started well this season.

€20 Man City-1/Cardiff DC/Dortmund Treble @ 13/5

Current Bank: €327.14

seklly

Last one was a winner, needed a 90th minute goal from Yaya Toure but I'll take that.

W +€52

Current Bank: €399.14

seklly

In the World Cup Qualifiers tonight I'm going with the "minnows", hoping they can keep it relatively tight at home to stronger opposition.

€25 Finland+3/Northern Ireland+3/Liechenstein+3/Georgia+3 Fourfold @ ~9/5
W +€44.74

Current Bank: €374.14

seklly

Another one for tonight, two strong teams against weaker opposition. Staying away from the Ireland match, just want to (hopefully) enjoy watching that one!!

€30 Germany/Belgium Double @ ~11/10
W +€33.34

Current Bank: €344.14

seklly

Germany and Belgium had easy victories.

With the "minnows", Georgia played out a goalless draw with France, Liechenstein lost by 1 to Greece and Finland and NI lost by 2 to Spain and Portugal.

So all bets win tonight.

Current Bank: €477.22

seklly

In form Arsenal to beat Sunderland who haven't been performing well. O'Shea is suspended and I'd like to see new signing Oil play some part which I'm sure Giroud will be looking forward to as well. In the end I think we'll have too much for them.

€30 Arsenal win @ 4/6
W +€20

Current Bank: €447.22

seklly

Arsenal win as expected with Ozil and Giroud linking up for the first. Almost doubled my initial deposit at this stage and the bonus will be released once I wager another €20.

Current Bank: €497.22

seklly

I fancy Southampton to nick the win here and also think it could be a low scoring affair. West Ham have a number of injuries to attacking players and every one of Southampton's and West Ham's premier league matches this season have gone under 2.5 goals so will take a chance on that.

€30 Under 2.5 Goals @ 19/20
W +€28.50

Current Bank: €467.22

seklly

Winner, game finished 0-0. Also, the bonus requirements have now been met so that €100 is now withdrawable.

Current Bank: €525.72

seklly

Speculative one for this evening, expecting another low scoring match. Sturridge and Liverpool in good form.

€5 Sturridge to score and Liverpool win 1-0 Scorecast @ 25/1
L -€5

Current Bank: €520.72

seklly

Got the last one wrong! Although Sturridge did score.

Looking at the cards market tonight in the Chelsea v Basel match later (thanks to Fonze07 in the tips thread for highlighting it).

The ref in tonight's match has dished out 4 or more cards in 49 of his last 51 matches. Chelsea also played Basel twice earlier in the year in the Europa league and there were 4 cards in one match and 5 in the other.

€50 Over 3.5 Cards @ 4/5
L -€50

Current bank: €470.72

seklly

Another one for tonight, Arsenal have been good to me recently and I think this match might suit them. I expect a cagey start but it should open up and there'll be likely chances at both ends. Arsenal won the same fixture the last time these 2 sides met and if we're to get out of this difficult group we really need to be going for the win tonight.

€20 Arsenal Win @ 13/10
W +€26

Current Bank: €450.72

seklly

Only 2 cards in the Chelsea match with a shock result as well with Chelsea losing 2-1. Arsenal win again to keep the away run going, another very good performance from Ramsey.

Current Bank €496.72

seklly

Going with Genk tonight in the Europa League. They're in good form and are unbeaten in their last 5 away Europa League matches.

€25 Genk Double Chance @ 8/5
W +€40

Current Bank: €471.72

seklly

Genk win 1-0

Current Bank: €536.72