New Zealand vs. Australia, match preview & thread, Sat 17 Aug, 1105 Irish time

Swiwi.

ENZED: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Brodie Retallick, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Ryan Crotty.

OZ: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Israel Folau, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Christian Leali'ifano, 11 James O'Connor, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Hugh McMeniman, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Scott Fardy, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Nic White, 22 Quade Cooper, 23 Tevita Kuridrani.

Date: Saturday, August 17
Kick-off: 20:05 local (11:05 BST, 10:35 GMT)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Lourens Van Der Merwe (South Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

The ANZACS kick off the one, the only, the original Rugby Championship (2013 edition) in Seeedney, in what shapes as a closely fought and intriguing contest. Ewen "Link" McKenzie makes his debut as Aussie coach, replacing Dingo Deans, and the former Wallaby prop will be hoping for a winning start and no repeat of the 3rd test scrumming debacle that "cruelled" the Green & Gold's chances against the B&I Lions (since when is cruel a verb...?). In the other corner, King Rutchie makes his return from a self-imposed sabbatical, and will be looking to return to the pinnacle of backrow play.

Steve Hansen has largely stuck with the tried & tested, but (the almost inevitable) injury to DC sees AC promoted to the starting line-up, while Steven Luatua gets a gift-wrapped opportunity to show his wares after Liam Messam pulled up with a hammie, and Tony Woodcock earns a reprieve with Wyatt Crockett recuperating on the sidelines. In the reserves, Ryan Crotty is poised for a debut, after an impressive SXV season marred only by an untimely & costly intercept pass in the semi-final.

For Australia, McKenzie has made a number of key changes since the 3rd test Lions' defeat, most importantly promoting the Brumbies' Matt Toomua to flyhalf (which sees JOC revert to wing). Toomua has had a very good SXV season, nothing flashy (IMO) but does the basics right, and knows when to kick, when to pass, and when to run. It's not rocket science, baby! Jesse Mogg gets a start at 15, and Aussie will need him to rediscover his early season running game, which he rather replaced with mindless kicking at the sharp end of the SXV season (no doubt under coach's orders). In other key positions, Michael Hooper won the race to the 7 jersey ahead of Liam Gill, and James Slipper takes over at loosehead from Benn Robinson. Mention has to be made of the Quade-meister on the bench, as well as a possible debut for the highly promising Tevita Kuridrani.

This match sees the international inauguration of the new scrum bind law, and an apparent return to scrumhalves feeding the ball down the centre, and hookers having to, well, hook. We shall see.

For NZ, I expect much of what we saw against the French. Worryingly for NZ, they have come out on the wrong side of the breakdown stats in their last few tests, and RHMc will want to rectify this anomaly. However, NZ's defence was pretty watertight in June, and their ability to counter-attack remains second to none.

Australia should play a somewhat more expansive game than under Deans, but the omission of Cooper from the starting line-up indicates McKenzie still wants a degree of structure, and not willy-nilly attack from all parts of the pitch. Toomua, Leali'ifano and Mogg all have a cultured boot, and for the first time in awhile (probably since Matt Burke in his pomp), Aussie have a very good goalkicker.

There are plenty of key match-ups, but try as I might I can't go past McCaw v Hooper, it will go a long way to deciding the game. Hooper is fast, and great in open play, but I'm not sure he is as good as Gill (and definitely not Pocock & Smith) at contesting breakdown ball. From a personal point of view, I am hoping Luatua announces himself to the world stage, he looked a very promising player in the earlier rounds of SXV, but faded a little (not helped by injuries here & there) as the season progressed.

Prediction: This is definitely Australia's best chance of victory in front of what could be a fired up home crowd. Toomua needs to have a blinder. However, like most games of rugby, the game will be decided foremost in the forwards, and NZ should have the edge there. Look out for Dagg et al on the counter-attack. NZ by under 10.

jamiedav2011

Really really looking forward to this. Oz have a great chance if Toomua slots in. That backline has a nice look about it.

irishbucsfan

Suppose I MIGHT be tempted

Judgement Day

Been really looking forward to this for ages. Kids farmed out, pub lined up and nothing less than a total demolition of the Aussies will do. For once I'll be hoping that Aaron Cruden plays a blinder, Ryan Crotty gets on early and Quade Cooper appears too late to cause any problems. All Blacks by a country mile.

.ak

The three players I'm most looking forward to seeing tomorrow are Dan Carter, Lobbe, and Kirchner.

Swiwi.

.ak wrote: »

The three players I'm most looking forward to seeing tomorrow are Dan Carter, Lobbe, and Kirchner.

Remind me again why you watch rugby? I know DC is sculpted, Lobbe ruggedly handsome, and Kirchner has that sort of care-free hippie look, but as I'm sure you are aware the former 2 will be in civvies in the stands, and the latter might as well be too given SA's style of play...no doubt the cameras will pan a fair bit to gorgeous Dan, so your wishes might be granted yet...

.ak

Le vieux renard wrote: »

Remind me again why you watch rugby?

Mostly to stay cool.

.ak

In all seriousnessness, I'm really looking forward to this one. Mostly because I can't wait to see what Mckenzie does to the squad, but I reckon NZ will hammer Australia, but if Australia show some shape and promise it'll be a hell of a lot more than they've done in recent years.

Swiwi.

.ak wrote: »

In all seriousnessness, I'm really looking forward to this one. Mostly because I can't wait to see what Mckenzie does to the squad, but I reckon NZ will hammer Australia, but if Australia show some shape and promise it'll be a hell of a lot more than they've done in recent years.

I haven't been this interested in a Bledisloe fixture since, well, it's been such a while I can't actually remember. They had become such predictable affairs, so I'll be keen to see what McKenzie brings to the table. I like watching Folau play too.

matthew8

Izzy Folau, James Horwill and Will Genia seem to be the only Aussies better than their AB counterparts. I hope they win though to open up the comp. They'll need Cruden to miss a lot though.

Swiwi.

matthew8 wrote: »

Izzy Folau, James Horwill and Will Genia seem to be the only Aussies better than their AB counterparts. I hope they win though to open up the comp. They'll need Cruden to miss a lot though.

If the SXV final is anything to go by...

awec

This is definitely worth getting up early to watch tomorrow

duckysauce

awec wrote: »

This is definitely worth getting up early to watch tomorrow

early its on at 11 ? it's messy when it's nz time

Podge_irl

duckysauce wrote: »

early its on at 11 ? it's messy when it's nz time

Ah yes NZ time games. The eternal "should I stay up or get up" question...

awec

duckysauce wrote: »

early its on at 11 ? it's messy when it's nz time

11am on a Saturday morning? Sure that's practically the middle of the night. :P

Kayless

will the new scrum laws be on show tomorrow?

Swiwi.

Kayless wrote: »

will the new scrum laws be on show tomorrow?

Was the preview that boring? :pac:

Swiwi.

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ah yes NZ time games. The eternal "should I stay up or get up" question...

Staying up to watch the game still half-drunk: headache the next day, and the game is a blur.

Getting up to watch the game still half-drunk: headache the next day, and the game is a blur.

Relying on some altruistic soul to post the game in its entirety on youtube: priceless (just avoid the forum before you've watched the game so as not to spoil the suspense)

There are some games you just have to watch live at the ground or in the pub. For everything else, there's the internet!

the_doctor199

This on TV anywhere?

awec

the_doctor199 wrote: »

This on TV anywhere?

Sky sports

Glass Prison 1214

Sky Sports 4 to be exact.

The Aussie

Excellent first post, but.....

Le vieux renard wrote: »

Prediction: This is definitely Australia's best chance of victory in front of what could be a fired up home crowd

Have you seen the amount of Kiwis in Sydney, also with flights direct from Bro Town, watch for a sea of Black.

CGD

Fancy NZ to win by 7+

danthefan

Just hope it's competitive, when you're a neutral seeing one side (well, Aus in this case tbf) getting hammered isn't much fun.

thomond2006

"The best in the world Craig Joubert"

Well a Kiwi commentary team would say that!

awec

KA MATE! KA MATE!

jamiedav2011

Stupid offload from Mogg was the root of that.

danthefan

Ahhh, Craig Joubert. Hard luck Aus

thomond2006

O'Connor oh dear

Glass Prison 1214

I'm seeing hopes of this being a close game fading already.

awec

Try NZ. Lethal team. Lovely offload.