Tuesday 30 July

rossom

1.55 Goodwood

Fennell Bay 14/1

Mark Johnston had a superb Glorious Goodwood last year finishing with 7 winners and a 30% strike rate (including this race) and although Fennell Bay doesn't look to hold much secrets from the handicapper I'm sure he'll be spot on for this and I expect a bold show. Fennell Bay had a superb 3 year old campaign winning 4 times (including at Royal Ascot off a 4lb lower mark) and although he hasn't kicked on in the way you would have expected as a 4 year old he has still managed to knock up a couple of victories and still looks to be competitive off a mark of 89. A fine 4th at this festival last year over this C+D in a race that has worked out really well, Fennell Bay's last victory came last month off a 3lb lower mark in a weak enough event but he ran a fine race in the Old Newton Cup earlier this month in 3rd before disappointing on his last 2 starts. However, this doesn't really bother me at all as he raced a phenomenal 18 times last year and came into Goodwood last year off a pretty much identical preparation (dates wise) where he was very poor in his 2 runs prior. A trainer who has an uncanny ability to get his horses to peak at the right time and his run merely 11 days ago is not a concern (last years fine effort came 2 weeks after poor run). The excellent Joe Fanning takes the ride and Fennell Bay is excellently berthed in stall 5 which looks crucial given that he is a horse who likes to race prominently. It will be interesting to see if Fanning attempts to make all on this 4 year old or he'll sit just in behind the pace but either way as long as he's close to the front I'll be happy. Johnston also runs the bottom weight Reset City who is an in foal mare in good form and it would be folly not to have small bet on her given Johnston has won this race 3 times in the past 10 years but I think Fennell Bay is the likeliest of his 2 to win. Some unexposed and progressive types come here in opposition but given Johnston's record at Goodwood and Fennell Bay's progressive profile last year it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he's been targeted at this race all season and the yard are absolutely flying at present. From a great draw in stall 5, I'm hopeful of a very big run from this heavily campaigned 4 year old gelding and if Joe Fanning can set the fractions right then hopefully Fennell Bay can get Mark Johnston off to a flyer at Glorious Goodwood.

3.15 Yarmouth

Miliika 5/1

If fully wound up on the back of a 270 day absence, I think Rae Guest's 4 year old filly Miliika could take a huge amount of beating for last years winning trainer/owner off a mark of 83 which I feel she is much better than. Unraced as a 2 year old, Miliika ran an absolute blinder on debut over 6f at Doncaster last May when inexperience definitely cost her as she hung badly left in the latter stages when going down by 0.5L to the older and more experienced Shahzan with the front 2 pulling 5L clear of the remainder of the field. That form is very strong and Miliika clearly put that experience to good use when scoring comfortably at Brighton on her 2nd start on quick ground in a race that is again some useful form. Miliika made her handicap debut off a mark of 80 at Windsor over 5f in soft ground when probably a bit unlucky when blocked off at a crucial stage before running on strongly at the finish to be beaten a neck by Kyleakin Lass (although the winner had eased a bit at that stage). Nevertheless, that look strong form with the winner scoring off a 7lb higher mark later last year and was rated a full stone higher this year. Miliika was raised 3lb to her current mark of 83 and she again ran another nice race in a 0-105 handicap over 5f at Newmarket (misleading as top weight was rated 92) but in a tactically run affair which Jamie Spencer stole from the front she got going to late to be beaten 1.5L. The progressive winner has yet to reappear but the 3rd home Heeraat has developed into a Group 3 winning sprinter which could make the form look really solid but the runner up Lupo D'oro adds a bit of uncertainty to its strength. Miliika was then put away for the summer before disappointing when favourite over 5f at Nottingham last October in heavy ground before running a fine race when trying to concede a stone to the 2 year old Ninjago who has since gone on to win 2 Listed races. Although the official winning margin was only a neck, Ninjago won snugly but Miliika was still clear of the rest. Since her maiden win, Miliika has raced solely on ground with cut and Rae Guest is adamant she is best on a quick surface and stated "she did not appreciate the soft ground" on her final start and I think quick ground is key to her which she is likely to get today (some showers forecast). Rae Guest knows the family very well having trained both the Grand Dam and Dam with the latter winning a Group 3 as a 4 year old for the trainer. I think 6f is Miliika's ideal trip and I definitely think she has the potential to earn some black type later this year. Successful in this race last year with subsequent Listed placed Minalisa, Rae Guest has an excellent 4-15 record at the track this year and Ted Durcan looks an eye catching booking with a 20% strike rate for the yard. Given that she ran well fresh on racecourse debut and Rae Guest has no problem readying his horses after an absence, I don't see too much problem with the 270 day absence and if fully wound up I think she could prove a cut above this field.

rossom

3.40 Goodwood

Saptapadi 18/1

Brian Ellison's 7 year old Saptapadi has shaped very well on 2 of his 3 starts since returning from an unsuccessful campaign in Australia and off a mark of 94 this well handicapped gelding looks like he'll need a penalty if he wants another crack at the Ebor - a race where he ran a blinder in 5th off an 11lb higher mark in 2011. Prior to that race, he was a very eye catching 5th in a Group 2 at York over 10f and which proceeded an equally eye catching 5th in a handicap over the same C+D off a mark of 105 in July 2011. After the 2011 Ebor, Brian Ellison brought Saptapadi over for a crack at the Melbourne Cup with stablemate Moyenne Corniche and although that adventure didn't work out (subsequently stayed in Australia with Jim Conlan; very poor) its great to see him back on British soil with Ellison where he has caught the eye on 2 of his 3 starts since returning to the Yorkshire trainer. The first of which came at York in May over 1m4f off a 1lb higher mark where he shaped very encouragingly under a sympathetic enough ride when he only tired late on before disappointing at Pontefract in a Listed contest subsequently. I'm sticking a line through that run, however, and he again caught the eye on his last start earlier this month in the John Smith's Cup where. Having been settled in the rear of the field, Saptapadi travelled beautifully through the race but he looked to get caught tacked for speed over the 10f trip as he finished a very credible 7th beaten only 4L. Saptapadi steps back up to 1m6f today which I think looks key to him as I think he needs more of a test now a 7 year old. Off a mark of 94, I definitely think he still retains enough ability to win this contest and if Ellison wants to get Saptapadi into Europe's richest handicap then he's going to need to pick up a penalty in the next month and you've got to assume he'll be trying very hard to do so today. Its obviously a bit of a worry that Saptapadi's best form has come at York's galloping track which is very different to Goodwood's sharp track but you've got to hope he acts on it. The draw in stall 8 shouldn't be much of a problem as he looks likely to be held up and Dane O'Neill looks an eye catching booking with a good record for the yard and Ellison has an excellent 3-13 record at the track. Brian Ellison comes here in belting form at the moment and with Harris Tweed sure to make this a truly run race if Saptapadi acts at the track then I think he has an excellent chance of landing this contest.

4.50 Goodwood

Juvenal 16/1

You've got to hope that after nearly a year off the track Juvenal will be fully wound up for this race by Richard Hannon but if this 4 year old son of Holy Roman Emperor is fit then I think he could run a huge race off a mark of 84. The first thing I ought to say is that when the declarations for this race came out the name Ryan Moore was firmly supplanted beside George Baker's Jack's Revenge whom Moore partnered to be a very unlucky 3rd in this race last year and I was rather surprised and intrigued to see that Moore was now riding the progressive Juvenal. Gelded since last see on the racecourse, although it took Juvenal 8 starts to shed his Maiden tag he was a thoroughly progressive 3 year old in his final 3 racecourse appearances. Juvenal's first win came off a mark of 74 over a mile sporting first time cheepieces when running out a ready winner over a mile at Windsor last July before he was a very unlucky 2nd on his next start on soft ground at Salisbury under Moore. Raised 3lb to a mark of 77, Juvenal looked like he would finish out with the washing when driven in last with about 3f out but Moore eventually got him moving forward as he came with a long persistent run before being hampered about 1f. He ran on again strongly to be defied by a head but it was another excellent performance. Juvenal was raised a further 3lb to a mark of 80 for that narrow defeat but he finished his 3 year old campaign in style with a taking 1L victory. Over 1m at Sandown back in September, Richard Hughes settled his mount towards the rear of the field where he would stay for most of the contest and inside the final 2f it looked like he was in an insurmountable position but having been switched towards the rail he made some good progress inside the final furlong before powering between horses to win going away for a snug victory under what was a superb Hughes ride. Again, the form of that is hard to work out but the manner of how he put the race to bed was very taking and a 4lb rise to 84 looks very fair. In the 332 days since that race, Juvenal has been gelded and goes without cheekpieces today which lead me to believe he is more forward at home and I'm hoping that translates to the racecourse. Obviously its a risk that he may need the run and, perhaps slightly worrying, was withdrawn from a potential prep run at Sandown nearly 2 weeks ago but the booking of Ryan Moore reassures me that he'll be ready as he could definitely have rode Jack's Revenge had he wanted. The draw in stall 15 isn't detrimental given that he'll be held up and they should go a good pace which looks ideal. Rather interestingly, Juvenal also holds an entry over 9f at Goodwood in 3 days time in an apprentice race so its not beyond the realms of possibility that the plan is to win this and go for that under a penalty - similarly you could argue this will be a run to get him spot on for that. Either way, I'm definitely willing to take the risk at an overpriced 16/1 and hopefully Ryan Moore has made the right choice and Juvenal comes out successful.

A few smaller bets for today

4.15 Goodwood Mystique Rider 12/1 was only a neck behind favourite Sacha Park when they met on debut and Olly Stevens runner, who was an unfancied 25/1 shot that day, looked like he'd benefit from the experience more. Although Sacha Park has clearly gone on to better things since then, Mystique Rider will have come on loads for that run and was due to go to run in the Windsor Castle before a small setback. Reported in great form by his rookie trainer, he looks the clear value call for me and 12s looks big

5.25 Goodwood B Fifty Two 18/1 is clearly an incredibly well handicapped horse off a mark of 86 judged on his 2 year old form and although he hasn't looked like a winner in waiting the booking of Richard Hughes is very eye catching for a John Hills yard that has exploded recently and has a 32% strike rate this month

7.15 Galway Alsium 20/1 will probably either win or finish out with the washing but this hopefully is a plot by the shrewd Paul Deegan. Alsium built on a highly encouraging 3 year old debut when running out good winner of a Cork maiden over 6f last June beating the very talented Listed winner Cape Of Approval before running in 2 Listed races subsequently. The first took place at Dundalk last year whilst the 2nd was at Naas this year and on both occasions she was immediately restrained in last leaving the stalls (although didn't show much encouragement). She makes her handicap debut here off a mark of 75 in first time cheekpieces and although stall 16 is a huge negative Joseph O'Brien on board catches the eye. Galway owned Alsium's trainer Paul Deegan landed a gamble at Galway back in 2009 and given that Alsium is again entered in a Listed contest on Thursday I think its telling given the shrewdness of the trainer.

stretchaq

top class write ups as usual rossom 7.15 Galway Alsium is at 7.45

Harry Angstrom

Paddy Power money back if your horse finishes second in any race at Goodwood today.

manafana

I see Weld has diplomat out again in opener today basically the same race but excludes 3 year olds

Harry Angstrom

manafana wrote: »

I see Weld has diplomat out again in opener today basically the same race but excludes 3 year olds

I'd prefer to back Shamar with Ladbrokes. Ruby on board for Willie Mullins, and if he finishes second to Weld's horse, you get your money back.

manafana

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I'd prefer to back Shamar with Ladbrokes. Ruby on board for Willie Mullins, and if he finishes second to Weld's horse, you get your money back.

comments made about Shamar not sure about him getting the hill here so not for me

Gatame

I'll be on Shamar in that race aswel Harry.

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Paddy Power money back if your horse finishes second in any race at Goodwood today.

It is not money back its a new bet to max 25e and your stake is not included if you win the new bet.This type of bet is now the biggest earner for all firms as they generally trade below sp and get people into their shops.

Harry Angstrom

sting60 wrote: »

It is not money back its a new bet to max 25e and your stake is not included if you win the new bet.This type of bet is now the biggest earner for all firms as they generally trade below sp and get people into their shops.

Applies to singles only
Applies to win or each-way market only.
Applies to win part of each way bets only.
Max Refund E/£100 per customer for each race
Paddy Power horse racing rules apply
Applies to bets placed from 10am on July 28th
Does not apply to Tote bets.

Hulk Hands

sting60 wrote: »

It is not money back its a new bet to max 25e and your stake is not included if you win the new bet.This type of bet is now the biggest earner for all firms as they generally trade below sp and get people into their shops.

Its not its cash back and the limit is higher than 25 quid as far as I know.

luketitz

Excellent write-up, thanks. B Fifty Two is a non-runner and no sign of Miliika @ Yarmouth

Gringo180

Really fancy Brown Sugar in the 2.30 at Goodwood to run a big race at a big price, pulled way too hard in his last start so the drop down to 5f may very well suit him. He absolutely trashed the field in a maiden at Salisbury and the 2nd that day has went onto win his only other start. Nice each way bet @14/1.

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Applies to singles only
Applies to win or each-way market only.
Applies to win part of each way bets only.
Max Refund E/£100 per customer for each race
Paddy Power horse racing rules apply
Applies to bets placed from 10am on July 28th
Does not apply to Tote bets.

I stand corrected as I was pointing out Ladbrokes offers.

Overthelast

Plenty of rain again in Galway overnight and this morning. Had little impact on the ground yesterday.

I bet on campanology when he ran in ascot but didn't really get any run for my money. Going to stick a small ew on him today in the hope he runs a better race from a plum low draw.

My goodwood fancies, justice day, garswood, guarantee, rusty rocket.

Good luck today.

Johner

Justice Day is a non runner.

Overthelast

Johner wrote: »

Justice Day is a non runner.

Shaize!

Hulk Hands

Just looking at the 5.10, Ladbrokes are worst price, or close to worst price on all 8 runners. Really is criminal what they're getting away with consistently

manafana

right day 2 galway picks in detail



in the topaz mile Pintura is one who took my eye, awful last run but really loves this track.

sting60

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Just looking at the 5.10, Ladbrokes are worst price, or close to worst price on all 8 runners. Really is criminal what they're getting away with consistently

A survey recently shown Ladbrokes worst price against all others 80% of time on all morning prices.On top of that some selected offices do not offer best price guarentee.

Harry Angstrom

My first rule of betting is to never take an early price with Ladbrokes, unless it's guaranteed odds, though these days they only offer guaranteed odds after midday, which is silly seeing as Powers and Boyles still offer best odds guaranteed.

TheMilkyPirate

Shit shops shit prices shit staff, Ladbrokes is shit.

votecounts

Red Dakota [EMAIL="1440@yarmouth"]1440@yarmouth[/EMAIL]

sting60

Almadaa withdrawn due to ground but if Seanie handles the going he will have a very big say.Heddwyn in the first at Goodwood 50/1 great draw and jockey gets on well with him.Duke Of Clarence 8/1 will love the conditions and is well drawn.Bancnuanaheireann has a poor draw but will run a big race.Knights Templer shoud win for Pat Flynn and will have no ground issues.Busted Tycoon is far better that form shows and should have a say in the last at Galway.

Johner

The ground at Goodwood is gone good to soft after heavy rain this morning.

Shane732

What do people think of Sacha Park? I considering availing of the PP offer but the ground is worrying.

luketitz

Johner wrote: »

The ground at Goodwood is gone good to soft after heavy rain this morning.

That's bad news for Fallon on Krypton Factor in the Lennox :mad:

http://m.racingpost.com/#news-story/story_id=1325578

Johner

I'm going to take a chance on Fast Or Free in the first at Goodwood. Obviously a huge risk backing a horse that has been off for over a year and I can only assume he has had problems with injury. Was very very progessive last year winning a good handicap at Newmarket before winning the Britannia at Ascot with a bit in hand. Both these wins came on good to soft ground. Obviously a risk but I'll have a small each way on at 7/1.

Overthelast

Goodwood. How many winners for Hannon and Hughes this week.......

Shane732

Overthelast wrote: »

Goodwood. How many winners for Hannon and Hughes this week.......

There's one anyway!

Overthelast

Hughes rides the course so well. Not a red cent on him

Oscars Well.

Mossey Joe NOT declared for the Plate

sham69

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Mossey Joe NOT declared for the Plate

ah shi**

Do you get antepost bets back on non runners?

Johner

sham69 wrote: »

ah shi**

Do you get antepost bets back on non runners?

Nope.

sham69

arrrghhh...
Thanks for letting me know johner.
Down a few quid this week.
I won 50 on Hamilton winning the Hungarian Grand Prix on Sunday but its well spent.
Maybe I should stick to a sport I know..

Shane732

Poor ride by Moore there. Went for a gap that wasn't there.

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

Really fancy Brown Sugar in the 2.30 at Goodwood to run a big race at a big price, pulled way too hard in his last start so the drop down to 5f may very well suit him. He absolutely trashed the field in a maiden at Salisbury and the 2nd that day has went onto win his only other start. Nice each way bet @14/1.

Hope a few were on lads, superb ride by Pat Dobbs.

luketitz

Gringo180 wrote: »

Really fancy Brown Sugar in the 2.30 at Goodwood to run a big race at a big price, pulled way too hard in his last start so the drop down to 5f may very well suit him. He absolutely trashed the field in a maiden at Salisbury and the 2nd that day has went onto win his only other start. Nice each way bet @14/1.

Dancer

Gringo180

luketitz wrote: »

Dancer

He never settled last time at Newmarket had a feeling the drop back in trip would help, couldnt believe he was 14/1

Handsome Bob

Johner wrote: »

Nope.

What? :eek: I did a bet last night, does that mean I won't get it back due to Almaa being a non-runner in the 3.05?

Johner

Handsome Bob wrote: »

What? :eek: I did a bet last night, does that mean I won't get it back due to Almaa being a non-runner in the 3.05?

You will get it back because it wasn't an antepost bet. The people who backed Mossey Joe did him antepost.

Luap

Handsome Bob wrote: »

What? :eek: I did a bet last night, does that mean I won't get it back due to Almaa being a non-runner in the 3.05?

No you'll get it back!

Edit: I'm all over Garswood at 11/4!!

Handsome Bob

Thanks lads, I thought antepost covered everything before the day of the race.

Johner

Handsome Bob wrote: »

Thanks lads, I thought antepost covered everything before the day of the race.

Ante Post is before the runners are confirmed. Aljamaaheer was a confirmed runner for the race this morning but as he's now a non runner you get your stake back.

Mossey Joe was only ever entered in the Galway Plate and when the declarations came out this morning he wasn't in them therefore a losing ante post bet.

Johner

Luap wrote: »

No you'll get it back!

Edit: I'm all over Garswood at 11/4!!

On Garswood myself here.

tryfix

Like the Hannon second string professor in this one.

TheMilkyPirate

Hon producer!!

Johner

Super super ride by Ryan Moore, horse never looked to be going that well.

2K11

Delighted just did Garswood at the last minute on my PP account here

Luap

Luap wrote: »

No you'll get it back!

Edit: I'm all over Garswood at 11/4!!

Booom!!

bmcc10

2K11 wrote: »

Delighted just did Garswood at the last minute on my PP account here

Same