Monday 29th July - Galway Day 1

rossom

One for me so far in the shape of 5.40 Galway Habesh 25/1. Will get a write up done later but doubt the price will last long.

UrbanSea

Have been waiting for this horse for a while and I'm having a proper bet at 25s. Needs to settle though

qc3

Pricewise for tomorrow
6.45 Galway Call Me Bubbles 1pt win at 8-1 with Boylesports (7-1 generally)
6.45 Galway Rossvoss 1pt win at 16-1 generally
Prices will go shortly.

UrbanSea

Had my biggest bet in about a year on him. Enough that 365 cut him to 20s straight after

d-gal

Notable graduate for me tomorrow. 86 rated and a 5 pound claimed. Was rated in the 100s last year

Slattsy

8.15
Riverside City.


And Diplomat in the first.

Nice double.

Johner

Diplomat is a ridiculous price in the first.

Shane732

Into 16/1 now.

Shane732

Johner wrote: »

Diplomat is a ridiculous price in the first.

It's a Weld horse.

ste2010

If your looking for a nice veteran with a big price after a break ballyvesey running top weight in a G4 (usually running In G2 and G1 races ) handicap chase at uttoxeter for the in form Peter Bowen yard. The fav is also Peter bowens but personally I think it's the former who will prove the strongest with good exp over course and distance in much better company

Johner

Shane732 wrote: »

It's a Weld horse.

I know, still though even money in a novice hurdle with a good few horses that are improving, I don't see any value in it.

UrbanSea

Think Habesh could have a stone in hand. Will be very disappointed if he doesn't get involved, pulls hard though will need to settle better

Shane732

Johner wrote: »

I know, still though even money in a novice hurdle with a good few horses that are improving, I don't see any value in it.

It's a Weld horse in Galway, with Ruby Walsh on it.

The horse could have 3 legs and it would still be favourite.

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think Habesh could have a stone in hand. Will be very disappointed if he doesn't get involved, pulls hard though will need to settle better

Think thats why they're turning to the hood and I think they may even set him off from the front. Hope rains away as he wouldn't want it too soft.

rossom

5.40 Galway

Habesh 25/1

Although he's got to bounce back from a couple of dismal efforts in a couple of decent 4 year old hurdle races in heavy ground, if the application of a first time hood helps Eugene O'Sullivan's Habesh settle and the application of a tongue tie sees him see out his race better then I think he has an excellent chance of landing this competitive handicap hurdle off a mark of 113. Formerly a decent enough handicapper on the flat for Mick Halford, Habesh joined current connections in May of last year and after a 5 runs on the flat (including a 3rd at Galway) he embarked upon his hurdling career last Autumn. After a promising couple of runs in his first 2 starts over hurdles (including over this C+D), Habesh made it 3rd time lucky when running out a cosy winner of a decent event in heavy ground at Listowel last September. Despite being quite keen throughout the contest, Habesh travelled powerfully throughout the race and after a fine jump at the last he scored by a comfortable enough 1.25L. The form of that race looks strong (runner up Top Man Michael who conceded Habesh yet to reappear; had won a decent Maiden Hurdle comfortably start before). The hurdling debutant Stockons Wing who finished 3rd, and clearly improved appreciably for the experience, has since gone on to win a Grade 2 over hurdles. Moreover, the comprehensively beaten 4th Hurricane Ridge races here on the same terms as Habesh yet is a single figure price and I'd much rather side with Eugene O'Sullivan's gelding. Additionally, O'Sullivan stated that he Habesh would be a much better horse on a sounder surface and he was nearly withdrawn because of the testing conditions which makes the victory even more impressive. Given an opening handicap mark of 126 over hurdles, Habesh took in 2 flat races before running in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival where he ran a much, much better race than his finishing position of 11th suggests.

Again under today's 5lb claimer Paddy Kennedy, Habesh was keen for much of the contest (pulled particularly hard early on) as he sat prominently for much of the contest and after jumping the 2nd last flight he was still travelling very well in the lead. However, he was overtaken by eventual winner Flaxen Flare entering the home straight and despite looking like he should play a massive role in the finish Habesh found absolutely nothing when asked and stayed on the one pace to finish a well beaten 11th. You have to suspect that being keen for at least half the contest meant Habesh had nothing to give off the bridle but he travelled with a lot of menace that day and he should find things an awful lot easier off a 13lb lower mark in a contest that is infinitely easier. The two subsequent outings of Habesh have been really bad efforts and he'll have to be forgiven both of those but they were much more competitive than this contest and at 25/1 I have no issue putting a line through them which has seen him fall to his current mark of 113 as he arrives her on the back of a 63 day break. Judged on the form of hurdle success and run in the Fred Winter, I definitely think Habesh is on a mark that underestimates his ability and I am definitely buoyed to the see the application of a hood and tongue tie. For a horse that is often very keen, the application of a hood could settle him down significantly which will help him no end and if the first time tongue tie signifies he has a small problem with his breathing then I think it could see him finish off his races much better. Although a winner on heavy ground, I hope the rain stays away as he seems to be a better horse on a sound surface (flat winner on good to firm) and the current yielding ground should pose no issues to him. I hope instructions are for Paddy Kennedy to sit Habesh near the front and I would have absolutely no problem to see him out in front from the get go either. In addition to his 6lb weight for age allowance, his young 5lb claiming rider takes some more valuable weight off his back and Habesh has a lovely racing weight of 10-5 to carry. If his two new aids work the oracle and the rain stays away, I think a huge run is on the cards for Habesh and hopefully he can land this for what I think would be the trainers first winner at the Festival.

7.15 Galway

Quinine 8/1

For all you have to respect Dermot Weld's handicap debutant Peace Accord, the 'King Of Ballybrit' hasn't saddled the winner of this in the past 10 running and you've got to take on his underpriced runner in my opinion. The one I like in this contest is Arthur Moore's Quinine who looked a very unlucky loser on his last start in a much better contest than this and given that he is up only 2lb to 68 for that effort and completely unexposed over 7f I think he looks primed for a big run in this. Successful on his 4th 2 year old start over 5f at Down Royal in a race that has worked out well, Quinine has been in good form in handicaps this year. After a decent run on seasonal reappearance, Quinine ran a fine race when beaten a little over a length over 5f off a mark of 66 at Navan back in May when getting going too late in a contest that is strong form before probably slightly disappointing when 6th at the same venue over slightly shy of 6f (race has worked out well) but he ran an absolute blinder when an unlucky 3rd at Fairyhouse LTO in a race that is much stronger than this. Stepped up to 7f in what was effectively a 0-90 contest where Quinine was the lowest rated by 11lb at Fairyhouse earlier this month, Quinine ran out an unlucky 3rd when flying from an impossible position to be beaten just a length. In a first time hood that is retained today, Quinine was held up in last by Ben Curtis and as he was starting to make a forward move he was hampered and had to be switched with a little over 2f to go. From then he flew home and made up a ton of ground but he had to settle for a 1L beaten 3rd as the first two home, who were prominent throughout, were too far in front. Nevertheless, it was an absolutely blinding run and the form of that race has worked out well. The runner up Bronte scored comfortably off a 1lb higher mark on his only subsequent start whilst the 4th home Toccata Blue has won again subsequently as well. A 2lb rise seems very fair and there seems like there will be a lot more to come from Arthur Moore's charge. Although he could have been better drawn in stall 9, it shouldn't make too much of a difference as he'll likely be held up and I'll be hoping the rain stays away. Looking at the opposition, there looks like there should be a good bit of pace which will help this hold up horse and the stiff finish at Galway also looks sure to suit. Shane Foley, who was on board for his sole success to date, takes the ride for the first time this year and this represents both his and Arthur Moore's only engagements today. Dropped back significantly in class, if Quinine gets the run of the race I think he'll run a very big race and hopefully he can add to his maiden win today with a success in this competitive looking contest.

Overthelast

There was a lot of rain last night in Galway & there was another heavy burst in the last 5 min. I'd say the ground will be soft up there today,

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Had my biggest bet in about a year on him. Enough that 365 cut him to 20s straight after

Best of luck urban

Have to have a few euro on that though best now is 14s
That'll do fine

Colonel Sanders

Best of luck with Hanesh lads, the bird has flown price wise for me to get involved though.

Urban flagged it up here a while back, hopefully the FBI don't do him for punting in America!

ThinkAboutIt

Found a good preview here http://gamblerfalls.com/galway-festival-day-1/

ben.schlomo

Its funny when people write up Galway previews year after year and take no account of the Weld factor or just Galway c+d. Regular form goes out the window and its proven year after year.

Hulk Hands

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Its funny when people write up Galway previews year after year and take no account of the Weld factor or just Galway c+d. Regular form goes out the window and its proven year after year.

That preview above takes every account of the Weld factor and how it can be overfactored (or under) into the price. Good read

ben.schlomo

Hulk Hands wrote: »

That preview above takes every account of the Weld factor and how it can be overfactored (or under) into the price. Good read

Ya i should have said previews in general, less so on that particular one, tipping in Galway is nothing more than a lotto really.

mountai

Dont understand Call Me Bubbles being fav in 18.45. Domination beat him well in the Curragh . Dominations best form has been on good to firm , but has won on Soft and Yielding to Soft. EW @ 12s for me.

realdanbreen

UrbanSea wrote: »

Had my biggest bet in about a year on him. Enough that 365 cut him to 20s straight after

Wow! Your 1 bet was enough for bet365 to cut the odds to 20's ?
How much did you bet?:eek:

hawkeyethenoo

a poor poor weeks racing quality wise. a good week craic wise but racing it really is terrible stuff.

Hulk Hands

realdanbreen wrote: »

Wow! Your 1 bet was enough for bet365 to cut the odds to 20's ?
How much did you bet?:eek:

If he's marked up then it could take less than a fiver at 25/1. It's not the amount bet usually, its the customer. Bookies don't mind taking a grand from a mug, but a smart customer isnt backing it for no reason, no matter what the stake. Granted on very early price racing at big odds, any sort of bet could change odds, the limits are so low at that stage

Shane732

Nothing like starting the festival off with an odds on Weld horse. Christ punters could be out on their feet after today!

Harry Angstrom

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Its funny when people write up Galway previews year after year and take no account of the Weld factor or just Galway c+d. Regular form goes out the window and its proven year after year.

Even the Sunday papers are getting in on the act now, with their multi paged pull-out previews. Cheltenham I can understand completely, but I can't wait to read the in-depth preview of the 2 mile maiden hurdles and the upside down amateur handicaps. Riveting stuff

Howjoe1

going yielding already. what does that do for Habesh's chances before I back it.

UrbanSea

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

a poor poor weeks racing quality wise. a good week craic wise but racing it really is terrible stuff.

In America so can't bet, a friend back home opened a 365 account to do it for me. He doesn't even bet but put 50 each way on for himself too, they'll probably limit him straight away if the horse wins

Edit WHEN he wins

Gringo180

Howjoe1 wrote: »

going yielding already. what does that do for Habesh's chances before I back it.

He's won on heavy ground before so I wouldn't be too worried about the ground.

carpothepunk

Thanks for Habesh Urban. Got the 25s when the market opened thanks to your post the other day. Didnt get a whole lot on, mind. Had a decent cut at 20s.

tonic wine

I'm on too!!! 16's with vc will do for me.
Also went for USA 8/1 in the same race.

Getting excited now, sun is out, not much dark clouds in the sky.
Not the best of racing on show, but the atmosphere will be great.

Other bets for the day:
6:45 Notable graduat 6/1 Cry for the moon 12/1
7:45 Irish Bulletin 7/2
8:15 Wicklow Brave 3/1

Shane732

UrbanSea wrote: »

In America so can't bet, a friend back home opened a 365 account to do it for me. He doesn't even bet but put 50 each way on for himself too, they'll probably limit him straight away if the horse wins

Edit WHEN he wins

You can still access the paddy power app from America, or at least I could.

Slattsy

So who's actually at the races today?
Pass on any whispers ;-)

Zzippy

Overthelast wrote: »

There was a lot of rain last night in Galway & there was another heavy burst in the last 5 min. I'd say the ground will be soft up there today,

I live beside the course. There wasn't that much rain, one or two heavy showers. Good drying wind today. Shouldn't affect the going to the extent of making it soft...

carpothepunk

I am there today. Sun splitting the stones here in Renmore.

2K11

It's absolutely beautiful in Galway at the minute, getting warmer but that may change as the evening goes on

UrbanSea

That's what i like to hear. The better ground the better for Habesh.

The more i think of him the more i fancy it. Ran in the Fred Winter (what looks a really strong renewal) off a stone higher and would have been involved at the finish if he hadn't pulled so hard. That's the main worry that he does it again but hope the hood handles that

realdanbreen

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If he's marked up then it could take less than a fiver at 25/1. It's not the amount bet usually, its the customer. Bookies don't mind taking a grand from a mug, but a smart customer isnt backing it for no reason, no matter what the stake. Granted on very early price racing at big odds, any sort of bet could change odds, the limits are so low at that stage

Really! I'd be very surprised if anyone posting everyday on an internet site would be marked up as a serious punter to be watched. I'd be even more surprised if their one solitary bet caused a multinational betting chain to revise down the odds.:cool:

UrbanSea

If you don't think one bet would change the price you don't know much about liquidity. A poor Irish handicap hurdle, big bets will stand out like a sore thumb. Its not a group 1 race, a bet of 50k wouldnt move a price, a race like this with poor liquidity the night before, a price could easily be changed by someone placing a 100 quid bet

chipsdave

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

a poor poor weeks racing quality wise. a good week craic wise but racing it really is terrible stuff.

The most Over-rated Race Meeting EVER ,,period.

superfurry1

O'hare has three runners at Uttoxeter tonight mentioned Strandfield bay last time over three miles travelled well for at least 2miles runs over 2m tonight still available at 30s betfair. 12-1 paddypower. Could be nice bit of value.

sting60

If the ground is ok then Rock On Coco is worth a decent bet 12/1.As I pointed out before Diplomat is Welds horse for the Hurdle providing he gets 10 lbs tonight.He has been laid out for the hurdle for a very long time and im told he is a machine.I think if a bookie is offering a distance bet then that is the bet on him tonight.

tonic wine

sting60 wrote: »

If the ground is ok then Rock On Coco is worth a decent bet 12/1.As I pointed out before Diplomat is Welds horse for the Hurdle providing he gets 10 lbs tonight.He has been laid out for the hurdle for a very long time and im told he is a machine.I think if a bookie is offering a distance bet then that is the bet on him tonight.

Would be the first 4 year old to win the Galway hurdle.

mailburner

diplomat beats the english challenger sky khan for anyone who
isnt watching

1st 5 Diplomat (USA) 9/10 f
2nd 10 Sky Khan 10/1
3rd 8 Honourable Emperor (IRE) 22/1
dist: 1L 6L

no change in price for the hurdle after that....still 25s (pp)

Shane732

1-0 to the punters.

kiers47

Admiral Hawke for me is so over priced in the next its not even funny. Took some 20/1. Only bet of the day so far.

Harry Angstrom

Jaysus, is there any chance that Dermot Weld will ever give a straight answer when he's asked about his best chances of a winner? :rolleyes:

razorhead

Weld's in the bumper is held in high regard

Gringo180

HOLY JAYSUS PULLED UP :eek: