August 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for August, the 1981-2010 average was 15.3 C.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for August at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for August at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question ... For the five IMT stations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Cork (we use Shannon for temps but going with Cork in this question), which one will record the highest August rainfall total? And what will that be in mm? (the form will help you answer, but FYI the August normal rainfalls for the five locations are 97.8 mm Claremorris, 86.1 mm Mullingar, 72.3 mm Casement, 71.9 mm Oak Park and 96.8 mm for Cork.

The entry form can be accessed by clicking here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

You can also enter directly on this thread if you prefer.

The deadline for entries without penalty is at 0300h Friday 2 August, after which penalties apply at 5% per half day.

Good luck, and if my organizing of this month's forecasts proves a bit tardy that's due to my projected holidays that may start before I get much chance to work on tables etc. We'll see how that works out.

omicron

Done. Just realised I forgot to enter July.

200motels

Done

Bsal

Done.

Eamonn121

:-)

M.T. Cranium

omicron wrote: »

Done. Just realised I forgot to enter July.

Check the scores, you might have moved up twenty spots.

M.T. Cranium

Eamonn121 wrote: »

:-)

?? don't see an entry in August form, did you post one in some other place?

dasa29

Done

omicron

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Check the scores, you might have moved up twenty spots.

If I could use my summer forecast for July as the monthly one I think I would move up 20 spots!

Jpmarn

Done. It is hard to believe that I'm in pole position to win the July contest. It is worth listening to some of the long term forecasts going around. It really is a guessing game especially the bonus question.

snowstreams

Done. Claremorris is going to be a popular choice for the bonus id say. Maybe Cork too.

Strasser

Done

Rikand

done

Harps

Done

Tae laidir

Done

talkabout

Done

Speak Now

Done.

mickger844posts

done

nilhg

done

lostinashford

Done and thanks

delw

done

homolumo

done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

Joe Public

Done - a few minutes late

dacogawa

Done

I don't think we're late Joe Public, it says 0300h Friday 2 August

rameire

just lobbed mine in there.
yeah 5% discount on my score.

John mac

done (on time ) 6:30 the other morning

traecy1

Done. After the deadline though

DOCARCH

A bit late....but done....from Spain so pleading clemency. :-)

Tae laidir

League Tables after 2 days:
26.4 Cork Airport
19.7 Claremorris
17.8 Oak Park
16.5 Mullingar
12.5 Casement

Rikand

Come on Cork!

which won't be the first time I'll be shouting that this weekend

Joe Public

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Come on Cork!

which won't be the first time I'll be shouting that this weekend

A cork race on the floods maybe a better chance

M.T. Cranium

August forecast content entries
______________________________________

FORECASTER _________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ IMT rain max

keith96 _______________ 17.5 _ 31.0 _ 8.5 _ 090 _ 130 _ 200 _ Cla
H2UMrsRobinson _______ 17.2 _ 26.2 _ 9.2 _ 095 _ 120 _ 378 _ Cor
dasa29 _______________ 17.0 _ 28.0 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 100 _ 110 _ Mul
dacogawa ____________ 16.9 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 092 _ 130 _ 155 _ Cor
rameire ____ (-5) ______ 16.9 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 099 _ 095 _ 101 _ Cor
Jpmarn _______________ 16.8 _ 30.1 _ 6.8 _ 055 _ 170 _ 081 _ Cla
mickger844posts _______ 16.8 _ 28.1 _ 7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 100 _ Cor
talkabout _____________ 16.8 _ 27.8 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 095 _ 115 _ Mul
M.T. Cranium __________ 16.8 _ 27.8 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 105 _ 124 _ Cla
Pauldry _______________ 16.4 _ 27.2 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 121 _ 128 _ Cla
seafields ______________ 16.4 _ 26.4 _ 7.0 _ 130 _ 075 _ 080 _ Cas
jd ____________________ 16.3 _ 28.9 _ 5.1 _ 110 _ 115 _ 104 _ Cla
lostinashford ___________ 16.3 _ 27.9 _ 4.1 _ 106 _ 103 _ 156 _ Cor
rickylovesuall __________ 16.2 _ 28.5 _ 4.6 _ 100 _ 120 _ 180 _ Cor
John mac _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 5.6 _ 110 _ 100 _ 101 _ Mul
200motels ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _11.0 _ 075 _ 121 _ 072 _ Cor
snowstreams __________ 16.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.5 _ 088 _ 115 _ 087 _ Cla

Con Sensus ____________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 5.1 _ 100 _ 103 _ 118 _ Cla,Cor

Bsal __________________ 16.0 _ 24.8 _ 5.1 _ 112 _ 095 _ 122 _ Oak
Joe Public _____________ 15.9 _ 27.9 _ 5.9 _ 089 _ 109 _ 129 _ Cor
Jerry Seinfeld __________ 15.8 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 095 _ 150 _ Cor
kindredspirit ___________ 15.7 _ 26.5 _ 4.8 _ 085 _ 115 _ 080 _ Cor
nilhg _________________ 15.4 _ 27.1 _ 5.9 _ 105 _ 095 _ 105 _ Cla
DOCARCH ___ (-10) _____15.3 _ 28.2 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 115 _ 138 _ Mul
Strasser ______________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ Cor
omicron _______________15.3 _ 25.0 _ 5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ Cla
homolumo _____________ 15.2 _ 27.1 _ 3.0 _ 091 _ 103 _ 291 _ Cla
singers ________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 6.2 _ 140 _ 090 _ 120 _ Cor
Tae laidir ______________ 15.2 _ 23.8 _ 4.4 _ 132 _ 104 _ 135 _ Cor
Harps _________________15.1 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 100 _ 120 _ Cor
traecy.1 _____ (-10) ____15.1 _ 25.3 _ 7.3 _ 120 _ 095 _ 125 _ Cla
cherryghost __ (-10) ____ 14.9 _ 25.5 _10.0 _ 105 _ 095 _ 100 _ Mul
blackbird99 ____________ 14.8 _ 26.0 _ 3.5 _ 091 _ 105 _ 087 _ Cla
okla _________ (-20) ___ 14.5 _ 26.2 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 085 _ 105 _ Cla
delw _________________ 14.3 _ 27.0 _12.0 _ 110 _ 099 _ 190 _ Cor
_______________________________________________________________

The consensus view of August is slightly warmer than average, near normal in rain and sunshine, with the heaviest rainfalls of about 120 mm in either Cork or Claremorris.

Tae laidir

49.9 Oak Park (29.5 yesterday!) Bsal alone.
33.9 Cork Airport
25.1 Casement
21.5 Claremorris
18.5 Mullingar

Calremorris forecast to do some catchup in the next few days.

Tae laidir

League Tables to today
74.3 Oar Park. Bsal ye boy ye
53.7 Casement
43.0 Cork
42.9 Claremorris
34.4 The Joe Show

Rikand

those random thunderstorms are boosting Carlow and Dublin. Might be the first time in history that the east coast gets more rain than the south or west

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was on 16.0(4) after 15 days. Looked to me as though rainfall is running about 20% above on average with some stations as high as 200% others below normal by 30% or so. Did not check any sunshine data but suspect it is well below average around 70% perhaps? Have seen a max of 24.8 at Oak Park, no min likely to qualify yet. That max doesn't look very safe either.

Tae laidir

League Tables to today:
77.5 Oak Park
63.5 Claremorris
54.6 Casement
49.5 Cork Airport
41.0 Mullingar

Not over yet - The Fat Lady is Rehearsing!

M.T. Cranium

Better be fat on the left side then.

M.T. Cranium

16.1 for the IMT as of today, rainfall seems to be converging on the 90-100 per cent finishing zone as not much more rain seems likely now, and sunshine could improve with a late burst and reach the same figures perhaps?

The lowest MIN that I can find is 7.7 at Mountdillon on the 7th (sevens are wild there), but Met.ie keep surprising me with new faces at the table in their MS reports, so in any case with some clear nights in the outlook period some rural spot could drop lower than that although 5-6 seems about the lower limit from this pattern. I would not be surprised to see a 26 or 27 near the end of the month, there again 28 seems to be about the highest the pattern could support.

There could be some fairly good scoring looking at the table. The bonus is probably all but settled now but I haven't looked at the details.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There could be some fairly good scoring

By Con :mad:

M.T. Cranium

Just checking the table of entries against the spreadsheet in the entry form and I did note two errors in my transcribing, mixing up PRC and SUN numbers for dasa29 and being 0.1 off on the max for Seafields. This table corrects those errors. I was mostly wanting to doublecheck that I had the right values and stations for the bonus. Then I noted that the rules never specified that the amount of rain is worth 8 pts and the correct location nets 2, but I will amend that to say, if only one person gets the location right (i.e., Bsal for Oak Park) then that will be worth 4, if two people are right it's 3 and if a crowd then 2. That will apply in future similar questions (which we plan to have, you can look at September already though I have not announced it yet).

So here's the slightly amended and tidied up table of entries with the necessary corrections. Think it's all good now.

August forecast content entries
______________________________________

FORECASTER _________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ IMT rain max

keith96 _______________17.5 _ 31.0 _ 8.5 _ 090 _ 130 _ 200 _ Cla
H2UMrsRobinson _______ 17.2 _ 26.2 _ 9.2 _ 095 _ 120 _ 378 _ Cor
dasa29 _______________ 17.0 _ 28.0 _ 5.0 _ 100 _ 120 _ 110 _ Mul
dacogawa _____________16.9 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 092 _ 130 _ 155 _ Cor
rameire ____ (-5) ______ 16.9 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 099 _ 095 _ 101 _ Cor
Jpmarn _______________ 16.8 _ 30.1 _ 6.8 _ 055 _ 170 _ 081 _ Cla
mickger844posts _______ 16.8 _ 28.1 _ 7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 100 _ Cor
talkabout _____________ 16.8 _ 27.8 _ 5.9 _ 110 _ 095 _ 115 _ Mul
M.T. Cranium __________ 16.8 _ 27.8 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 105 _ 124 _ Cla
Pauldry _______________ 16.4 _ 27.2 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 121 _ 128 _ Cla
seafields ______________ 16.4 _ 26.5 _ 7.0 _ 130 _ 075 _ 080 _ Cas
jd ____________________16.3 _ 28.9 _ 5.1 _ 110 _ 115 _ 104 _ Cla
lostinashford ___________ 16.3 _ 27.9 _ 4.1 _ 106 _ 103 _ 156 _ Cor
rickylovesuall __________ 16.2 _ 28.5 _ 4.6 _ 100 _ 120 _ 180 _ Cor
John mac _____________ 16.1 _ 26.1 _ 5.6 _ 110 _ 100 _ 101 _ Mul
200motels ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _11.0 _ 075 _ 121 _ 072 _ Cor
snowstreams __________ 16.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.5 _ 088 _ 115 _ 087 _ Cla

Con Sensus ____________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 5.1 _ 100 _ 103 _ 118 _ Cla,Cor

Bsal __________________16.0 _ 24.8 _ 5.1 _ 112 _ 095 _ 122 _ Oak
Joe Public _____________ 15.9 _ 27.9 _ 5.9 _ 089 _ 109 _ 129 _ Cor
Jerry Seinfeld __________ 15.8 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 095 _ 150 _ Cor
kindredspirit ___________ 15.7 _ 26.5 _ 4.8 _ 085 _ 115 _ 080 _ Cor
nilhg _________________ 15.4 _ 27.1 _ 5.9 _ 105 _ 095 _ 105 _ Cla
DOCARCH ___ (-10) _____15.3 _ 28.2 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 115 _ 138 _ Mul
Strasser ______________ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ Cor
omicron _______________15.3 _ 25.0 _ 5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ Cla
homolumo _____________15.2 _ 27.1 _ 3.0 _ 091 _ 103 _ 291 _ Cla
singers ________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 6.2 _ 140 _ 090 _ 120 _ Cor
Tae laidir ______________15.2 _ 23.8 _ 4.4 _ 132 _ 104 _ 135 _ Cor
Harps _________________15.1 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 100 _ 120 _ Cor
traecy.1 _____ (-10) _____15.1 _ 25.3 _ 7.3 _ 120 _ 095 _ 125 _ Cla
cherryghost __ (-10) _____14.9 _ 25.5 _10.0 _ 105 _ 095 _ 100 _ Mul
blackbird99 ____________ 14.8 _ 26.0 _ 3.5 _ 091 _ 105 _ 087 _ Cla
okla _________ (-20) ___ 14.5 _ 26.2 _ 3.9 _ 120 _ 085 _ 105 _ Cla
delw _________________ 14.3 _ 27.0 _12.0 _ 110 _ 099 _ 190 _ Cor
_______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Tae laidir wrote: »

By Con :mad:

Finding the same in the U.S. forum contest that I score, Consensus his American cousin is beating all but six of about forty there in the annual and this month may move up past most of them. Oddly I have him covered for August, I seem to know where the heat is going to be on that side of the pond anyway. This month in Ireland, I would say that all I would need is a heavy thunderstorm over Claremorris to lay down a sheet of hail that would then affect morning lows and clear the air for non-stop sunshine. And I need that tomorrow to get to 16.8 or whatever. Some others have more realistic shots at beating Con, but not many. A torrential downpour at Mullingar would leave John mac quite happy (assuming he doesn't live there).

Hey, but we can all take pride in being 1/34 of Con Sensus. That's about 3%. (wow)

Tae laidir

And I need an ice sheet to break off Greenland, head swiftly south-eastwards, and become stationery off the Kerry coast, causing temperatures to plummet, and downpours in Cork, especially at the airport.
Oh, and in the next week!

pauldry

Rain bonus is going to be very tight. Its a really interesting one for the weather nerd like me.

Liked the last rain one too that was done where all the numbers for the day were totalled to make the wettest day.

Anyway all I need is a late burst of heat on a foggy morning with a thunderstorm in Claremorris (60mm please!) after Mayo bate the nordies!;)

M.T. Cranium

New MIN to report is 6.3 on 24th at Mountdillon.

Tae laidir

League Tables to yesterday.

85.2 Oak Park
70.3 Claremorris
62.8 Casement
51.1 Cork Airport
49.4 Mullingar

MT forecasting Drizzle, Showers and possible brief Thunderstorms, so I fear the Fat Lady will not be performing this month.
Congrats Bsal?

M.T. Cranium

There's a slight chance of Claremorris catching up at the very end, I think the pattern might give them more rain than Oak Park but 15 mm more? Rather doubtful, maybe a one in five chance. The other three are done, I think.

The IMT has slumped to 15.8 C in this cooler spell of cloudier days. May recover to end around 15.9 or 16.0. Not so sure about anything warmer than what we have already seen (24.8 I think). It's a slim chance anyway. The air is warm enough but too stable to permit enough sunshine.

September thread is open for business.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

New MIN to report is 6.3 on 24th at Mountdillon.

Happy to report 5.9 at Oak Park on 31st

Tae laidir

Final Table:

85.6 Oak Park - Congrats Bsal
72.3 Claremorris
63.3 Casement
51.8 Mullingar
51.6 Cork Airport

pauldry

moorepark in Cork got a min of 5.4c