King George & QE Diamond Stakes

Gringo180

There has been some cracking races in this over the years from Montjeu winning on the bridle to Galileo beating Fantastic Light in an epic battle, so looking forward to this race on Saturday. If Cirrus Des Aigles turns up at his best theres not a horse to touch him in the field, 5-2 is an absolute steal and is probably the bet of the year in my opinion.

Harry Angstrom

Great to see Cirrus Des Aigles being a confirmed runner. If he runs up to his form against Frankel in last year's Champion Stakes he'll take all the beating. Only worry would be that he might be more effective over 10 furlongs.

Gringo180

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Great to see Cirrus Des Aigles being a confirmed runner. If he runs up to his form against Frankel in last year's Champion Stakes he'll take all the beating. Only worry would be that he might be more effective over 10 furlongs.

Good to firm ground maybe not ideal either but I still don't think the field is in the same class as him. I wouldn't be worrying about his reappearance either when he was 5th to Novellist as the horse usually comes on a shed load with a run under his belt.

faoile@n

Gringo180 wrote: »

Good to firm ground maybe not ideal either but I still don't think the field is in the same class as him. I wouldn't be worrying about his reappearance either when he was 5th to Novellist as the horse usually comes on a shed load with a run under his belt.

St Nicholas Abbey should have beat him in Meydan last season only for Joseph leaving his run too late and allowing Peslier get first run.

Over 10f Cirrus would destroy SNA but I don't think there will be that much between them on fast ground over 12f.

Cirrus would certainly be favourite in my book mind.

Gringo180

faoile@n wrote: »

St Nicholas Abbey should have beat him in Meydan last season only for Joseph leaving his run too late and allowing Peslier get first run.

Over 10f Cirrus would destroy SNA but I don't think there will be that much between them on fast ground over 12f.

Cirrus would certainly be favourite in my book mind.

Trainer has been on record as saying Cirrus has really improved since then and is much much stronger, although you could probably say the same for St. Nic.

UrbanSea

Cirrus is about 5lbs better over ten. Should still be competitive in this. That said i know he improves for his seasonal debut but he was awful that day and i am very cautious making excuses for s horse when the one who beat him reopposes. What price is Novelist?

UrbanSea

Hillstar being supplemented at 75k

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Cirrus is about 5lbs better over ten. Should still be competitive in this. That said i know he improves for his seasonal debut but he was awful that day and i am very cautious making excuses for s horse when the one who beat him reopposes. What price is Novelist?

It was a very disappointing reappearance run. Novelist is 6/1. Interesing to see how Hillstar gets on, I think he could turn out to be the best of the 3 year olds this year.

UrbanSea

I have been screaming about that horse from the rooftops since his debut and he can only get better . Forget about him being beat in the two handicaps he had excuses, could be good

Slattsy

St Nic for me here.
The best 12f horse around.

Gringo180

Lads CDA got to within a 2 lengths of Frankel, if he repeats that form there is nobody that can touch him (not only in this field but in training). This horse is a machine, if he wasn't a gelding and was kept in training till he was 7 he would have 2 Arcs under his belt. Forget his reappearance he will improve about 10 lengths for that on Sat, I think he is just as good over 12f as he is at 10f myself!!

Johner

Gringo180 wrote: »

Lads CDA got to within a 2 lengths of Frankel, if he repeats that form there is nobody that can touch him (not only in this field but in training). This horse is a machine, if he wasn't a gelding and was kept in training till he was 7 he would have 2 Arcs under his belt. Forget his reappearance he will improve about 10 lengths for that on Sat, I think he is just as good over 12f as he is at 10f myself!!

He's a much better horse on soft ground though. Has he ever run/won on ground this firm? A fantasic horse no doubt but I'd be a bit cautious.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

He's a much better horse on soft ground though. Has he ever run/won on ground this firm? A fantasic horse no doubt but I'd be a bit cautious.

That would be my only concern as I have already said, but he has won on good ground a few times most notably beating St Nic in Dubai Sheema Classic and another beating So You Think in the Prince of Wales iirc. He ran well enough on very firm ground in the Hong Kong Cup, finishing 5th was outpaced a bit but absolutely flew home in the last 100 yards that was over 10f so the extra 2 on firm ground should be no problem imo.

UrbanSea

Gringo he would in his ****e have two Arcs he has never put up a performance over 12 that would suggest he'd win an Arc do you think he would have beaten Danedream that day when she broke Peintre Celebre's record time

tryfix

The key to this race is pace, St Nick would be suited by a slow pace as he's been outstayed in the last two runnings, albeit by some really top class horses. Ektihaam will set the pace and kick on with 3 furlongs to go unless something like Trading Leather goes on with him early on. Ektihaam has the ability to go very close to winning this, but he's a slightly suspect stayer who may be done on the line. Last year I'd have been all over CDA, he's been laid out for this race and is actually very stoutly bred and the 12f should suit him, but he's 7 years old and the firm ground is a worry.

At this stage I think Trading Leather will be the best served by the likely fast pace if CDA runs below par. Will have to have a small bet on Ektihaam as well, my favourite horse this year.

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Gringo he would in his ****e have two Arcs he has never put up a performance over 12 that would suggest he'd win an Arc do you think he would have beaten Danedream that day when she broke Peintre Celebre's record time

Well 1 anyways, 2 was a bit over the top I must admit

UrbanSea

Still wouldn't be sure off the top of my head he won a Sheema that he wouldn't have and a grand prix de Saint Cloud over 12 think he could get found out

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Still wouldn't be sure off the top of my head he won a Sheema that he wouldn't have and a grand prix de Saint Cloud over 12 think he could get found out

In what way do you reckon he will be found out, are you talking stamina wise? He has won over 13f on very soft ground so stamina should not be an issue.

Bit off topic but just looking at CDA sire, out of the rest of his crop the highest rated is 81 :eek:

Hulk Hands

Slattsy wrote: »

St Nic for me here.
The best 12f horse around.

You're going for an O'Brien horse in the big Group 1?? No way :eek:

UrbanSea

Found out as being inferior over twelve as opposed to ten in what looks a better race than i thought a few weeks ago.

Haha i looked that up before, his siblings have probably done nothing from better stallions

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You're going for an O'Brien horse in the big Group 1?? No way :eek:

Hardcore loyalist!

akelly02

Universal for me, really progressive and wont be easily passed in the straight. big enough price to go each way.

byronbay2

SNA out of the King George and will not run again.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8836602/st-nicholas-abbey-career-over

CDA is now best-priced 13/8

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/king-george-vi-and-queen-elizabeth-stakes/winner

byronbay2

Paddy Power is offering money back if second to CDA in the King George. Good offer.

Ladbrokes is offering money back as a free bet (up to €25) for all losing horses if CDA wins. Prefer money back rather than free bet but still, decent offer.

Personally, I really fancy CDA and think that 7/4 in this field is great value. The going is perfect Good ground at Ascot at the moment and I would have no worries about the horse on this ground - obviously it could get a lot quicker between now and 15.50 tomorrow with high temps and no rain. However, there are heavy thunderstorms due in the area tomorrow afternoon and if one was to strike between 13.00 and 15.30 tomorrow, it would REALLY be in his favour.

Johner

Matt Chapman ‏@MCYeeehaaa 9m

Watch your King George bets - heavy rain expected in @AscotInsider tomorrow. Could be all change come the off! Yeeehaaa! #groundalert

Slattsy

What else in the race will love the ground?

CDA is no good thing over 1 1/2 on soft ground lads. Those extra 2f will be hard work. A thorough stayer is whats needed to win this on soft ground.

Will Trading Leather even run on soft ground ?
Cant say Ektihaam wants it either. Hillstar seemed to relish the good to firm as Ascot, but not sure the form amounts to much.
By default, its Novellist

Gringo180

CDA = free money lads, not a hope anything beating this beast tomorrow.

byronbay2

Slattsy wrote: »

CDA is no good thing over 1 1/2 on soft ground lads. Those extra 2f will be hard work. A thorough stayer is whats needed to win this on soft ground.

Good point but horses tend to stay a bit further as they get older and CDA is quite stoutly bred. In fairness, all his best form is over 10f but he loves soft ground and I would consider any rain a big bonus rather than detrimental to his chance.

As a by-the-way, do you think any other horse in the race would be capable of this form .....

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/15-10-2011/ascot/result/451779/qipco-champion-stakes-british-champions-middle-distance-group-1


What an incredible performance, albeit almost 2 years ago now.

UrbanSea

No but its not all that comparable when its a different trip. Still think Hillstar will improve with each race

Slattsy

byronbay2 wrote: »

Good point but horses tend to stay a bit further as they get older and CDA is quite stoutly bred. In fairness, all his best form is over 10f but he loves soft ground and I would consider any rain a big bonus rather than detrimental to his chance.

As a by-the-way, do you think any other horse in the race would be capable of this form .....

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/15-10-2011/ascot/result/451779/qipco-champion-stakes-british-champions-middle-distance-group-1


What an incredible performance, albeit almost 2 years ago now.

Flattered (to an extent)
If it was over 10f i'd strongly fancy him. Maybe his class will get him home, but those extra 2f on soft ground are not ideal.

I'll probably leave the race alone tbh.

tryfix

This race is getting more messed up by the day. CDA by a mile on all known form and ground preferences, even the trip is in his favour, never seen him going backwards at the end of a race, but he's a 7yo and the oldies have a habit of flopping when there's an open goal in front of them.

Don't really like Novellist at the price and his form is very similar to Very Nice Name who's 4 times his price, like Universal but he's surely not a King George winner. Red Cadeaux is just not good enough. Hillstar is plenty short, but could be anything, although finding at least 14lbs is asking a bit too much at the price he is. Trading Leather suited by the trip, but soft ground is a big no no for him.

Which leaves Ektihaam, has the class on his Ascot form, he's a sporting bet at a nice price against the monster CDA.

byronbay2

Didn't have my smartphone with me at the time (to let Boards know) but Paddy Power are (were?) offering CDA @ 2/1 for the King George as one of their "While Stocks Last" offers at lunchtime. Went in at 13.30 and the offer was already available and it was still on offer when I left at 13.50. Great price imo, for anyone who fancies the horse.

UrbanSea

Think it would be a disappointing Kong George if Ektihaam was the winner tryfix

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think it would be a disappointing Kong George if Ektihaam was the winner tryfix

Not for me.:)

Serious horse this fella.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=577002&r_date=2013-05-11&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think it would be a disappointing Kong George if Ektihaam was the winner tryfix

Same can be said for most of them i reckon, bar CDA.
Not sure the 3yr olds are up to much.

Gringo180

Hillstars price is absolutely appalling, he wouldn't of beat Battle of Marengo last time only for getting 3lbs from him and we all Know BOM is slow as a boat and in my opinion got a poor ride that day.

UrbanSea

Gringo180 wrote: »

Hillstars price is absolutely appalling, he wouldn't of beat Battle of Marengo last time only for getting 3lbs from him and we all Know BOM is slow as a boat and in my opinion got a poor ride that day.

Hillstar's first attempt at 12 furlongs, he has been screaming for it. He improved massively to beat BOM who is to say he can't improve again he is so lightly races

UrbanSea

Gringo180 wrote: »

Hillstars price is absolutely appalling, he wouldn't of beat Battle of Marengo last time only for getting 3lbs from him and we all Know BOM is slow as a boat and in my opinion got a poor ride that day.

Also Joseph gave him a really good ride he nearly slipped the field. Best horse won that day he was going away at the finish level weights or not. If that was Hanagan on a 20/1 shot people would say what a good ride it was he nearly stole it, yet an odds on favourite is beaten on merit and its a poor ride

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Also Joseph gave him a really good ride he nearly slipped the field. Best horse won that day he was going away at the finish level weights or not. If that was Hanagan on a 20/1 shot people would say what a good ride it was he nearly stole it, yet an odds on favourite is beaten on merit and its a poor ride

S.
P.
O.
T.

O.
N.

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Also Joseph gave him a really good ride he nearly slipped the field. Best horse won that day he was going away at the finish level weights or not. If that was Hanagan on a 20/1 shot people would say what a good ride it was he nearly stole it, yet an odds on favourite is beaten on merit and its a poor ride

Just my opinion mate, he went for home 3f out on BOM and was absolutely threading water half a furlong from home, Hillstar looked liked he was flying but it was really the fact that BOM was stopping. Sure even on that form your looking for Hillstar to improve more than a stone and thats just to get competitive with CDA.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Also Joseph gave him a really good ride he nearly slipped the field. Best horse won that day he was going away at the finish level weights or not. If that was Hanagan on a 20/1 shot people would say what a good ride it was he nearly stole it, yet an odds on favourite is beaten on merit and its a poor ride

BOM flopped based on the other animals in behind, not because of the ride, but because he's gone, he's just gone backwards for whatever reason. He didn't need to slip the field, on his previous form he just had to wait his time and go on with a few furlongs to run, that's what worked for him in the past. Bad tactics didn't help, whether they were juniors tactics or not is another question.


The best thing Hillstar has going for him is his trainer who's in top form and the fact that he's an improving horse. They could have sent Telescope, but Hillstar sure ain't no Workforce either.

UrbanSea

I hope he isn't or else he'll be trailing in last, maybe he'll do a Harbinger :cool:

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I hope he isn't or else he'll be trailing in last, maybe he'll do a Harbinger :cool:

Oh yeah , except when he beat St Nick into 3rd when finishing 2nd behind Nathaniel .

Harry Angstrom

tryfix wrote: »

Not for me.:)

Serious horse this fella.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=577002&r_date=2013-05-11&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

The fact that Paul Hanagan is going to York to ride Mukhadram in the Group 2 isn't much of a vote of confidence in Ektihaam. If Hanagan thought he had any chance, he'd be at Ascot.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

Red Cadeaux is just not good enough.

How can you say that?

Red Cadeaux has won a group one race over this distance in the last year in a time of 2min 28sec.

The last time Cirrus won over 12f on good ground was at Meydan, a full 3 seconds slower than Red Cadeaux.

I am not saying Red Cadeaux should be a favourite, what I will say is that Cirrus at 6/4 and Red Cadeaux at 33/1 makes no sense whatsoever.

tryfix

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

The fact that Paul Hanagan is going to York to ride Mukhadram in the Group 2 isn't much of a vote of confidence in Ektihaam. If Hanagan thought he had any chance, he'd be at Ascot.

Jocked off after his slip up the last day, innit.:D

UrbanSea

Francie Barrett wrote: »

How can you say that?

Red Cadeaux has won a group one race over this distance in the last year in a time of 2min 28sec.

The last time Cirrus won over 12f on good ground was at Meydan, a full 3 seconds slower than Red Cadeaux.

I am not saying Red Cadeaux should be a favourite, what I will say is that Cirrus at 6/4 and Red Cadeaux at 33/1 makes no sense whatsoever.

Should never place too much emphasis on times. He is well below a top gr.1 performer but could easily be placed but beaten about seven lengths

tryfix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

How can you say that?

Red Cadeaux has won a group one race over this distance in the last year in a time of 2min 28sec.

The last time Cirrus won over 12f on good ground was at Meydan, a full 3 seconds slower than Red Cadeaux.

I am not saying Red Cadeaux should be a favourite, what I will say is that Cirrus at 6/4 and Red Cadeaux at 33/1 makes no sense whatsoever.

No need to go into the details, but different courses, different racing conditions make cross course comparisons pointless. A decent old big race servant is Red Cadeaux, but his last 3 runs were defeats by 15l @12/1, 6 1/2l @ 6.8/1, 3 1/4l @16/1 to horses rated inferior to Cirrus Des Aigles the highest rated horse in the world.


CDA mightn't run to form tomorrow, but his price is a correct reflection of his chance, Red Cadeaux on form could be lower in price but he's not expected to improve enough at his age to win this, unlike the younger horses who may just do that, and that's why they're priced lower than him.

Francie Barrett

UrbanSea wrote: »

Should never place too much emphasis on times. He is well below a top gr.1 performer but could easily be placed but beaten about seven lengths

I know that, but there is just so much going against Cirrus, there are previous injury concerns, there are concerns over the trip, there are of course the concerns over his times, and finally, there's the great big whopper of a concern that a 7 year old has never won this in living memory.

For me, Trading Leather and Novellist are the two to pick from. Even Very Nice Name is a horse I feel like I can't discount (even though I don't think it will be fit enough tomorrow).

UrbanSea

I think people are being very dismissive in CDA's last run. Traditionally he needs a run and should come on but a lot is being taken on faith even with him clear on ratings, Novellist's victory could prove to be no fluke. A lot is being taken on trust

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think people are being very dismissive in CDA's last run. Traditionally he needs a run and should come on but a lot is being taken on faith even with him clear on ratings, Novellist's victory could prove to be no fluke. A lot is being taken on trust

The problem with Novellist is that he beat Dunaden 1 1/4l on his last start, well whoop de doo, join the list that have beaten Dunaden by even more, including Red Cadeaux who beat him by 1 1/2l.

He'll have to improve half a stone to be an average enough KG winner, whereas CDA had an average KG winner in Nathaniel well held when a staying on 2nd behind Frankel, with Pastorius, Novellist's 2l conqueror beaten 6l that day by CDA.

If the real CDA turns up, it's a one horse race, with only the unexposed horses in with any shout of threatening him.