What did we learn from the boom and bust?

realitykeeper

Did the Irish people become wiser following the demise of the Celtic tiger? For example, should we have voted for a party that was led by a shifty individual like Bertie Ahern for example? Should we - with the benefit if hindsight, have tried to keep up with the Jones`s? I would like to learn from and reflect on the self effacing truths and snippets of wisdom accumulated by others who regret the decisions they made in the years leading up to the demise of the celtic tiger.

Max Power1

We learned nothing

We are still governed by idiots at our own free will. Volunteering to be raped by tax increases.

Lucena

I'd say on an individual basis, people should learn to save money while things are good. The nation as a whole probably won't learn anything, waiting for the next boom.

foxy06

Ive learned not to keep up with the Jones's. Was very silly for a while during the boom and although I didn't bite with the housing market I was just lucky that I missed it before crash happened. I did end up with masses of debt though that I have only recently cleared. Car packed it in just last week and rather than going and buying a new one I have started walking! Lots of lessons learned and I will never get into debt again (with exception of a very small mortgage)

PyeContinental

Nothing was learned by anyone.

Frank Lee Midere

PyeContinental wrote: »

Nothing was learned by anyone.

except the poster above you.

Jawgap

I think on an individual level people have re-learned that you have to save for certain things (cars, holidays, consumer goods) before you buy them, rather than buy them on credit.

Politically, we've learned nothing. We still elect the same type of person to represent us in the Dail, we still practice the same parochial, parish pump politics and we still hold no one, anywhere in the system accountable for their actions.

Corkbah

realitykeeper wrote: »

Did the Irish people become wiser following the demise of the Celtic tiger? For example, should we have voted for a party that was led by a shifty individual like Bertie Ahern for example? Should we - with the benefit if hindsight, have tried to keep up with the Jones`s? I would like to learn from and reflect on the self effacing truths and snippets of wisdom accumulated by others who regret the decisions they made in the years leading up to the demise of the celtic tiger.

Doesn't matter who you vote for in politics..... the politicians always get in !!
(and to be fair - no matter which political group are in charge they will tell "mistruths" to the electorate to get their vote)

PyeContinental

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

except the poster above you.

Anyone +/- 0.001% of the population so.

donegal_road

learned that €300k @ 4.4% over 30 years = €540k





*didnt borrow this much, its just an example

Jawgap

Most people still never learned what a tracker mortgage is:D

RichardAnd

I learned that there is no "we"...

Morrisseeee

Jawgap wrote: »

I think on an individual level people have re-learned that you have to save for certain things (cars, holidays, consumer goods) before you buy them, rather than buy them on credit.

Politically, we've learned nothing. We still elect the same type of person to represent us in the Dail, we still practice the same parochial, parish pump politics and we still hold no one, anywhere in the system accountable for their actions.

Yes saving for certain things is the ideal scenario. I was talking to a guy the other day who just bought his first house, with his own money, he had saved up for years and was now reaping the benefits. Of course it comes at a certain cost, ie. living at home, no car, single.

But I don't think we've re-learned about borrowing. The way I see it is that the lender had cheap rates and they gave out loans/mortgages like confetti.
That's why I think the lenders should have suffered, they gave out loans/mortgages/credit very unprofessionally/unregulated, so if the borrower can't repay the money, then tough shiit sherlock!
So the obvious Q is, who comes up with the shortfall, the answer shouldn't be the ordinary man/woman/child on the street, it should be the mega rich of the world, ie. the small minority who have the majority of the wealth.

That's what's wrong about our elected Gov, they should stand up for US, not the mega rich of the world. Why should the elderly, the handicapped or the special needs person take a hit as the mega rich get richer.

Jawgap

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Yes saving for certain things is the ideal scenario. I was talking to a guy the other day who just bought his first house, with his own money, he had saved up for years and was now reaping the benefits. Of course it comes at a certain cost, ie. living at home, no car, single.

But I don't think we've re-learned about borrowing. The way I see it is that the lender had cheap rates and they gave out loans/mortgages like confetti.
That's why I think the lenders should have suffered, they gave out loans/mortgages/credit very unprofessionally/unregulated, so if the borrower can't repay the money, then tough shiit sherlock!
So the obvious Q is, who comes up with the shortfall, the answer shouldn't be the ordinary man/woman/child on the street, it should be the mega rich of the world, ie. the small minority who have the majority of the wealth.

That's what's wrong about our elected Gov, they should stand up for US, not the mega rich of the world. Why should the elderly, the handicapped or the special needs person take a hit as the mega rich get richer.

I returned to Ireland in the middle of the boom so perhaps wasn't as 'indoctrinated' on the whole lifestyle credit funding thing that seemed to be going on - the lenders were negligent in their lending, no doubt about that and I was shocked (shocked, I say:)) at some of the things the banks were suggesting I do to bump up my borrowing capacity, especially in relation to a mortgage.

Saying that it takes two to tango - so while the banks were lending negligently, a lot of people (and by no means everyone) were borrowing recklessly, and I don't have a lot of sympathy for them.

You're right that the government should stand up for us, and not just to the banks and international financial institutions, but also, to be honest, to the strategic defaulters and the other freeloaders in our society- protect the weak and vulnerable - especially the elderly, the handicapped or the special needs person (and their carers) to the maximum, but the government should also have the balls to relentlessly pursue those trying to pass themselves of 'special cases.'

A lot of people see themselves as special cases because they took a punt (anyone for a holiday home in Bulgaria or a buy-to-let in Leitrim) and it didn't work out, now they want the rest of us to underwrite them - I wonder if the punt had worked would they be as interested in contributing a little bit extra?

Morrisseeee

Jawgap wrote: »

Saying that it takes two to tango - so while the banks were lending negligently, a lot of people (and by no means everyone) were borrowing recklessly, and I don't have a lot of sympathy for them.

Also alot of people did suffer & are still suffering because of these two tango-ers! ie. the people who tried to get on the property ladder as the other two tangoed.
If you did manage to get a property & a big mortgage then you are suffering again now as the fallout from their reckless tango has been lumped on your dancefloor/shoulders !!

MissyFit

I learned that the it's true what they say - the rich get richer and the poor get poorer . And that Irish people have no shame , having stood by and allowed the Catholic Church to physically abuse our children , we are now allowing the Government to financially abuse our children's futures . Fighting Irish my a**

Jawgap

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Also alot of people did suffer & are still suffering because of these two tango-ers! ie. the people who tried to get on the property ladder as the other two tangoed.
If you did manage to get a property & a big mortgage then you are suffering again now as the fallout from their reckless tango has been lumped on your dancefloor/shoulders !!

Yes, but people were not forced to get mortgages, or change their car every year or have two holidays or send their kids to private schools or a whole host of other things.

The amount of work involved in getting a mortgage is not inconsequential so people had to make conscious decisions about what information they provided, what they were going to fudge (or downright lie about) and what they were going to keep back.

Also, while the banks should have been much more discriminating, you don't have to be a genius to work out whether you could afford your mortgage in the event of one or other of you losing your job, having your hours cut, becoming ill, having an extra kid etc - "what if" is a simple enough question.

Plus you're not compelled to go on the property ladder, it's a choice, as is taking on a big mortgage - if you could service it properly you wouldn't regard it as a 'big' mortgage.

I've nothing but sympathy for people who borrowed sensibly and have just been unlucky, as for anyone else, not so much.

COYW

MissyFit wrote: »

I learned that the it's true what they say - the rich get richer and the poor get poorer . And that Irish people have no shame , having stood by and allowed the Catholic Church to physically abuse our children , we are now allowing the Government to financially abuse our children's futures . Fighting Irish my a**

I learned that socialism sucks as I always suspected. I also learned that you are looked up as an idiot if you are a responsible, hard working, law abiding person who pays their taxes. Far more protection is given to those who chose to take the welfare path as career.

As a country, I truly believe that we have learned nothing and things will go back to the way they were during the boom given half the chance. The banks will lend at the same levels and once the credit is available the same old bodies will happily take all the credit they can get and act like big shots again. The same bodies will be off playing the 'victim' and 'austerity' card when it all collapses again.

I feel sorry for the few who genuinely got stung after borrowing but I believe most took advantage of the credit flow to show off. Eg: Buying 2nd homes in foreign countries that they never viewed, buying new his and her cars every year.

thebman

Realistically, we got confirmation today that FF and FG are up to their necks in dodgy behaviour and if they weren't actually running the show still would probably be illegal organisations to be members of at this point.

Both have been caught having funny conversations and caught with members getting loans it cash from dodgy sources, being perfectly happy to screw over the rest of the country for their own personal gain.

Really hope, both these political parties die a horrible death!!

Damien360

thebman wrote: »

Realistically, we got confirmation today that FF and FG are up to their necks in dodgy behaviour and if they weren't actually running the show still would probably be illegal organisations to be members of at this point.

Both have been caught having funny conversations and caught with members getting loans it cash from dodgy sources, being perfectly happy to screw over the rest of the country for their own personal gain.

Really hope, both these political parties die a horrible death!!

The names might die but the members will form a new party and everyone will believe the bull about how different they are......and they will still get elected.

Same fools different name

Damien360

Jawgap wrote: »

I've nothing but sympathy for people who borrowed sensibly and have just been unlucky, as for anyone else, not so much.

My thoughts exactly. If you are up the creek without a paddle on a holiday home pension/investment then I have no sympathy whatsoever. My taxes are covering your ass through the billions we gave the banks.

Twoandahalfmen

We learned that Sinn Fein should be in power.

Lucena

COYW wrote: »

I learned that socialism sucks as I always suspected. I also learned that you are looked up as an idiot if you are a responsible, hard working, law abiding person who pays their taxes. Far more protection is given to those who chose to take the welfare path as career.

Socialism? In Ireland? Since when?

As for people leeching off the welfare state, that definitely exists. But I'd rather that happened than having people living under bridges. I've personally benefited from the dole from time to time, but I've now been working full-time for five years. Without the dole to get me through the rough patches, where would I be now? Most people will need a helping hand at some stage in their 40-year working life.

Every system will be abused to some extent, that isn't a reason to scrap it. Careful monitoring to limit the abuse is required.

COYW

Lucena wrote: »

Socialism? In Ireland? Since when?

When has it not been socialist?

DarkDusk

We actually didn't have a proper "bust". The bust was avoided by increasing the debt exponentially. This is reflected in the US, where massive amounts of money to the tune of trillions has been printed to increase debt and prevent the bust that was experienced in the 1930's.

We are in yet another credit bubble. This time the debtors are COUNTRIES, not property developers, which is why bonds (sold to increase funds and at the same time debt) are at 300 year highs in the UK, over 230 year highs in the US. The business cycle of booms and busts occur naturally, the actions of central banks across the world since 2008 was not natural and created an artificial recovery. We have probably seen the top in bonds, they are dropping right now and interest rates rising with them, along with inflation. Look at how oil prices have reacted since the pullback in bonds, there is a long way to go I'm afraid.

Of course people haven't woken up to this yet... :rolleyes:

Jawgap

Twoandahalfmen wrote: »

We learned that Sinn Fein should be in power.

God, no!

DarkDusk wrote: »

We actually didn't have a proper "bust". The bust was avoided by increasing the debt exponentially. This is reflected in the US, where massive amounts of money to the tune of trillions has been printed to increase debt and prevent the bust that was experienced in the 1930's.

We are in yet another credit bubble. This time the debtors are COUNTRIES, not property developers, which is why bonds (sold to increase funds and at the same time debt) are at 300 year highs in the UK, over 230 year highs in the US. The business cycle of booms and busts occur naturally, the actions of central banks across the world since 2008 was not natural and created an artificial recovery. We have probably seen the top in bonds, they are dropping right now and interest rates rising with them, along with inflation. Look at how oil prices have reacted since the pullback in bonds, there is a long way to go I'm afraid.

Of course people haven't woken up to this yet... :rolleyes:

When you say that "bonds (sold to increase funds and at the same time debt) are at 300 year highs in the UK, over 230 year highs in the US" - I presume you mean the volume of bonds or their total face value? That's to be expected - both economies are substantially bigger than they were 200 years ago.

Also the face value of the bonds may be at an historic high, but in the UK's case their national debt as a proportion of GDP has been much higher in the past - as high as 250% of GDP during the Napoleonic Wars.

Finally, if bond yields are dropping doesn't that indicate increasing market confidence that the governments in question will pay on them?

I'm not sure how bonds and oil prices are causally linked - plus oil futures are up, despite the US increasing it's production, which suggests someone thinks demand is increasing and will increase.

sarumite

Twoandahalfmen wrote: »

We learned that Sinn Fein should be in power.

Ah c'mon. We may have had a massive housing bubble burst and the worst economic crash in our history.....but nothing bad enough happened that wpuld merit putting SF in power.

OldNotWIse

foxy06 wrote: »

Ive learned not to keep up with the Jones's. Was very silly for a while during the boom and although I didn't bite with the housing market I was just lucky that I missed it before crash happened. I did end up with masses of debt though that I have only recently cleared. Car packed it in just last week and rather than going and buying a new one I have started walking! Lots of lessons learned and I will never get into debt again (with exception of a very small mortgage)

Me too. Got myself riddled with debt! Clear it and save is my goal now

Sleepy

There'll always be idiots who'll think it was nothing more than a blip in the ocean and carry on regardless (and we need to make sure we don't elect any of them!) but I'd be very surprised if savings rates don't stay high for the next 20/30 years.

One of the most obvious lessons that can be learned from this recession is the value of an education. Those who are in most trouble are the ones who left school to go work on sites/retail at 15/16. They've got three choices: a life of eternal emmigration, following the booms of the English speaking world providing unskilled labour, go back to education and start their careers 10 - 15 years behind their peers or eek out an existence on the dole. Hopefully they'll see the benefit in getting their own kids to stay in school after suffering so much from a lack of education themselves.

leonidas83

Lucena wrote: »

Socialism? In Ireland? Since when?

As for people leeching off the welfare state, that definitely exists. But I'd rather that happened than having people living under bridges. I've personally benefited from the dole from time to time, but I've now been working full-time for five years. Without the dole to get me through the rough patches, where would I be now? Most people will need a helping hand at some stage in their 40-year working life.

Every system will be abused to some extent, that isn't a reason to scrap it. Careful monitoring to limit the abuse is required.

In fairness, I dont think he was talking about the likes of yourself when he made that post. I for one would be very much in favour of a system that takes into account the length of time someone has been working & the amount of tax they have paid over the course of their lives.

The problem we have in this country is the people who make a career out of it & that has to change.

Dannyboy83

What did I learn?
Many things.

Two examples:

A)
I learned that I prefer the bust to the boom.
Life has been better during the bust.

During the boom, inflation and rent increases were outstripping most people's wages. A jar of coffee cost E9. The roads were clogged with people.
If you were born any time after the early 80s, you were too late.

I don't want a boom to return. Some slow and steady growth - German style - would be nice. But no more booms.


I learned there are talkers and doers.
There are a nawful lot of unemployed people who are just plain ol' talkers.

We are 5 years into this crisis and a lot of people could be nearly finished their second degree by now, could be fully retrained and back in work, even if not in this country, they could be back to work somewhere.
But they won't help themselves.

They like the fat women in your office who start a diet every Monday morning and are eating chocolate by lunch. Jam Tomorrow.