Tour de France - Stage 21, Sun Jul 21, Versailles - Paris, **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 21, Versailles - Paris - Champs-Elysées, 133.5 km

It's the last day of le Tour and the only thing that's left to be settled is which sprinter will win on the Champs Elyysess. Can anybody stop Cav's drive for five??

To mark the end of the 100th Tour de France, the organisers have designed this stage to be extra special and memorable. The stage starts at 4.45pm (GMT) at the Palace of Versailles, and then heads towards the Chevreuse hills. There are two Cat. 4 climbs for the peloton to tackle: Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse (1km at 6.9%); and Côte de Châteaufort (0.9km at 4.7%). The riders will then enter Paris where Team Sky will lead the peloton onto the Champs-Elysées finishing circuit. For the first time ever, the riders will circle the Arc de Triomphe rather than turning in front of it. The peloton will then complete 10 laps of the circuit.

The race will only properly begin when the peloton reach the circuit, and the tempo will go from leisurely to lightning quick as the sprinters' teams take control. Mark Cavendish has won this stage the last four years in a row and he is the favourite again this year. Although his lead-out hasn't been perfect so far in the race, OPQS do have all 9 riders left. The tactic last year when Cav was with Sky was to have Wiggins at the front in the final kilometre, ensuring nobody else could overtake him and disrupt Cav's lead-out. Cav decided to go early with a few hundred metres left, but no one could catch him. OPQS could employ a similar tactic today by putting Tony Martin on the front before Steegmans takes over.

Marcel Kittel has won a very impressive hat-trick of stages this year. Although Argos-Shimano have lost one of their key lead-out men, Tom Veelers, Kittel has the ability to win without having a perfect leadout, as he has shown with his three victories. Kittel is definitely Cav's closest rival.

Andre Greipel on the other hand appears to need a good lead-out in order to win. Marcel Sieberg abandoned a few days ago so that's a big dent in Greipel's chances of winning. I can't see Lotto being able to control the peloton in the last kilometre, so for that reason I don't think the big German will win.

The Green Jersey winner Peter Sagan has won one stage, finished 2nd four times, 3rd twice, and 4th once in this year's race. That's damn impressive, and very consistent. He mightn't be as fast as Cav, Kittel and Greipel but he won't finish too far behind them either. His tactic will probably be to stick behind Cav's wheel, so it'll depend then if he can manage to overtake him. I'm not so sure he can do it.

Notable mention to Alexander Kristoff from Katusha. He's been very consistent in the Tour, finishing 2nd once, 4th once, and 6th three times. He's had a great season, winning Stage 5 of Tour de Suisse, finishing 2nd in the Norwegian National Champ., 2nd overall in the 3 Days of De Panne, 4th in the Tour de Flanders, 5th in Schelderprijs, 8th in Milan-San Remo, and 9th in Paris Roubaix. If he was with a team that was more focused towards sprinting, who knows how many races he could win. However, I think he'll probably finish in 5th place today.

I'm predicting Sagan to win while pulling a wheelie across the finish line :pac:
Cav to win 5-in-a-row.





Last kilometre:


Stage betting: M Cavendish 5/6; M Kittel 7/2; A Greipel 6/1; P Sagan 7/1.

Here's a link to the Irish riders' diaries thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport2 from 5.15pm, ITV4 from 4.30pm, and TG4 from 7.15pm.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 11.30pm, ITV4 at 11pm, and TG4 at 11pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

Hermy

Thanks for the daily stage threads Dastardly!:)

bcmf

Hermy wrote: »

Thanks for the daily stage threads Dastardly!:)

+1
Thanks

Darkglasses

Yeap big thank you for all the preview threads Dastardly!

I would love Sagan to win this but he just hasn't seemed well over the last few days. Marcel to win for me.

Eamonnator

Thanks for the daily stage thread.
Well done.
E.

Reginald P. DuM

I also wanna add my appreciation for the dastardly, bit of effort involved we understand but hope we have all helped to add to your daily threads and improve each others Tour.... Only 1 thread locked out of 21 to my knowledge, not bad considering subject matter and the way in which it has been so convincingly won.

Been quite a Tour, thouroughly enjoyed the lot of it. Even though Corsica seems like a long time ago now. Hoping for a fitting spectacle for the final day, Cav or Kittel without doubt, reverse forecast probably the option, if I must commit I'll be a little controversial and go with ze German...

dastardly00

Thanks very much

Mint Sauce

They have been great. I also learnt what Hors Course meant, something that was not featured on the Le Tour website stage maps.

pelevin

Yeah cheers for these threads. Well done.

letape

Mint Sauce wrote: »

They have been great. I also learnt what Hors Course meant, something that was not featured on the Le Tour website stage maps.

You have me there - what does "Horse Course" mean?

Beasty

letape wrote: »

You have me there - what does "Horse Course" mean?

It's a French delicacy that you have before the cake...

another 10h 32m and we can forget about the spoiler rules for a while ...:D

dastardly00

This year's winner of the super-combativity award is Christophe Riblon of AG2R La Mondiale.

dastardly00

Does anybody know if Pierre Rolland will be wearing the polka-dot jersey today? Quintana is in 1st place but I presume he'll be wearing the white jersey. Froome is 2nd, but he'll obviously be wearing the yellow jersey. If it was a normal stage I know Rolland would be wearing it. But I wonder if it's different for the last stage? Rolland would look a bit silly if he has to wear it given all the photos taken during the final stage on the way to Paris.

manafana

I think polka dot is ahead of the white jersey, so quintana will wear that, talansky may wear the white but not sure on last day.

manafana

my verdict


The climbs are nothing major and the riders will pass the Jacques Anquetil monument on the top of Côte de Châteaufort. Their will be 10 laps Paris. For the 100 Years Anniversary, the route takes the riders around Arc de Triomphe instead of turning just before as we have seen in the past. The lead out trains will of course have big say in who takes the win, the breakaway as always is hugely unlikely with them setting the pace.

Kittel is a much better price than Cavendish so a very close rival to him he already has 3 stage wins and Degenkolb does provide a great final lead out protection for the German.


Steegmans was last man to win before Cavendish in Paris.

pelevin

If to pick a winner I'd make the predictable guess of Cavendish, but given in the proper head to heads where all sprinters have been there at the finish Kittel has 2 wins to Cav & Greipel's 1, then the odds it'd seem fair to say don't reflect how things currently stand.

dastardly00

manafana wrote: »

I think polka dot is ahead of the white jersey, so quintana will wear that, talansky may wear the white but not sure on last day.

Yeah I think you're right. So Talansky will look like the silly one!

SHOVELLER

While acknowledging there has to be a celebration to mark the 100th tour I still cant get my head around a night time finish.

I've been on the Champs Elysee 3 times to see the last ceremonial stage and it is a glorious day.

Anyway any news on the meet and greet of all the living tour cyclists yesterday?

manafana

SHOVELLER wrote: »

While acknowledging there has to be a celebration to mark the 100th tour I still cant get my head around a night time finish.

I've been on the Champs Elysee 3 times to see the last ceremonial stage and it is a glorious day.

Anyway any news on the meet and greet of all the living tour cyclists yesterday?

PAris by night is beautiful worth a go i thought.

Beasty

manafana wrote: »

I think polka dot is ahead of the white jersey, so quintana will wear that, talansky may wear the white but not sure on last day.

I thought we had determined elsewhere (early on in the Tour) that as the young rider is a GC it's ahead of the Green and Polka Dot jerseys in terms of prioritisation

dastardly00

On the TdF website it's saying that Talansky will wear the white jersey.

manafana

Beasty wrote: »

I thought we had determined elsewhere (early on in the Tour) that as the young rider is a GC it's ahead of the Green and Polka Dot jerseys in terms of prioritisation

I dont think i was part of that debate, jersesy are ranked yellow, green, polka dot, white in that order.

dastardly00

A few tweets today from the two Irish lads...

Dan Martin ‏@DanMartin86

Happy and excited to be on the bus/plane to paris. Also kind of nervous. The champs elysse not as easy as it looks on TV #madeit #goosebumps

Very proud of @nicholasroche when was the last time an irishman on final podium in paris? 3 weeks of selfless teamwork. Enjoy! #unsunghero

Nicholas Roche ‏@nicholasroche

Thanks @DanMartin86 ! Just hope no panda runs after me! ;-) hope u get back in shape soon and kick ass in the next race!! #familybuisiness

I would like to thanks all of you who have supported @DanMartin86 and myself over the last 3 weeks ,if it was at home or on the side of road

Reginald P. DuM

The Sagan Man has dyed his facial hair green for today's stage.... Cos he can..

Mint Sauce

letape wrote: »

You have me there - what does "Horse Course" mean?

Its 'Hors Course'. Its an alternative or more direct route between the start and finish. Drivers using the Hors Course might only follow the stage route for a bit at the start and the finish, or the whole final climb if a mountain finish.

Its French for something, not exactly sure. Take a look at all the route maps in Dastardlys OPs and you will see it displayed in orange.

Beasty

manafana wrote: »

I dont think i was part of that debate, jersesy are ranked yellow, green, polka dot, white in that order.

T'was Tiny who suggested white takes precedence

Lapin

Full credit to the Tour de France organisers for holding the final stage in the evening in order to ensure it didn't clash with the Connacht Final.

TinyExplosions

Beasty wrote: »

T'was Tiny who suggested white takes precedence

And I think I was incorrect, and that the White jersey is 'lowest' ranked, so it's Yellow, Green, Polka Dot, White (in that order) -though Quintana will confirm that for us this evening if he's in polka dot!

Eamonnator

Froome is on a yellow bike.
Quintana is in dots.

bazermc

Jaysus the lads on itv4 have their monkey suits on!

Mint Sauce

Has Sagan dyed his goatie green?

DominoDub

A crap for UPC not having Eurosport 2 HD ..so no final stage in HD

Eamonnator

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Has Sagan dyed his goatie green?

No

Darkglasses

J-Rod had a cigar at the start reportedly, class.

goose06

Eamonnator wrote: »

No

Yes he has

Darkglasses

goose06 wrote: »

Yes he has

Yeap he sure has!

The tax man

DominoDub wrote: »

A crap for UPC not having Eurosport 2 HD ..so no final stage in HD

TG4 HD:pac:
Surprised myself that Eurosport bumped today's stage off the main channel.

Reginald P. DuM

Rolland lost the mountain points he won yesterday when he nearly ran Anton off the road... That maybe old news I only read it now..

Eamonnator

goose06 wrote: »

Yes he has

Apology. Must adjust colour on TV

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

bit of a bogey

dastardly00 wrote: »

Stage 21, Versailles - Paris - Champs-Elysées, 133.5 km

The riders will then enter Paris where Team Sky will lead the peloton onto the Champs-Elysées finishing circuit.

Is this customary that the peloton stays together with the yellow jersey on the last stage? If it was close coming into today, would we see attacks or is that frowned upon?

Squidgy Black

OPQS up the front already

Ciaran

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Is this customary that the peloton stays together with the yellow jersey on the last stage? If it was close coming into today, would we see attacks or is that frowned upon?

It's next to impossible to stay away on this stage. The Champs Elysees is dead flat and all the sprinters' teams will to everything to chase down any break.

dastardly00

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Is this customary that the peloton stays together with the yellow jersey on the last stage? If it was close coming into today, would we see attacks or is that frowned upon?

Yep. The etiquette is that there are no attacks on the yellow jersey during the final stage into Paris.

When the peloton does reach the Champs-Élysées, things get serious, and there is a big fight for the stage win. But never for the yellow jersey.

bit of a bogey

dastardly00 wrote: »

Yep. The etiquette is that there are no attacks on the yellow jersey during the final stage into Paris.

When the peloton does reach the Champs-Élysées, things get serious, and there is a big fight for the stage win. But never for the yellow jersey.

A bit dull isn't it? I understand it would be incredibly difficult to get away but if there was only seconds in it, you'd be itching to try everything. Would be interesting that situation ever arose....

Squidgy Black

I wonder what would happen if for some reason the yellow jersey went down, if there was only a minute or so between the top 2? Would the peloton stop and wait?

gordongekko

bit of a bogey wrote: »

A bit dull isn't it? I understand it would be incredibly difficult to get away but if there was only seconds in it, you'd be itching to try everything. Would be interesting that situation ever arose....

there was a time trial on the last stage one year and lemond won the time trial to also win the tour by a few seconds

retalivity

it would be great if a group broke away with enough time to get around the first circuit & lap the peloton.
they could then just sit with them a lap ahead and have their own sprint at the end, while everyone else has to go around one last time

IM0

retalivity wrote: »

it would be great if a group broke away with enough time to get around the first circuit & lap the peloton.
they could then just sit with them a lap ahead and have their own sprint at the end, while everyone else has to go around one last time

funnily enough loads of the peleton have this dream the night before

Lapin

Just an observation on the Eurosport commentators comments about the Giro not finishing in Rome every year.

The Champs Elysses is cordened off for Bastille Day anyway which falls a few days before the Tour arrives in town.

So its not as much hassle to host the closing stage as it would be in Rome or elsewhere.

gordongekko

Lapin wrote: »

Just an observation on the Eurosport commentators comments about the Giro not finishing in Rome every year.

The Champs Elysses is cordened off for Bastille Day anyway which falls a few days before the Tour arrives in town.

So its not as much hassle to host the closing stage as it would be in Rome or elsewhere.

ah...that was a full week ago