Tour de France - Stage 18, Thu Jul 18, Gap - l'Alpe d'Huez, **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 18, Gap - l'Alpe d'Huez, 172.5 km

It's the stage we've all been waiting for!!



The Queen stage of the 100th Tour de France starts with the Cat. 2 climb of Col de Manse (6.6 km at 6.2%). Expect attacks straight away and a massive breakaway trying to form. The sprinters will probably get shed out the back and form the grupetto immediately. 30km further down the road is the climb of Rampe du Motty. It's only 2.4km long and is categorised as a Cat. 3, but it averages 8%. After the feed zone, the riders tackle the Cat. 2 climb Col d’Ornon (5.1km at 6.7%). After the descent, the real action then begins

With 61km remaining, the riders tackle the legendary 21 hairpins of the hors categorie Alpe d’Huez (12.3 @ 8.4%). When they reach the summit, there is a short plateau of about 5km before they then climb the Cat. 2 Col de Sarenne (3km at 7.8%). There's been a lot of discussion already about the descent from the Col de Sarenne. It's tight, technical and the road surface isn't too great. The weather forecast is for rain, and Chris Froome has already called for the stage to be shortened. Let's hope this doesn't happen

If the riders make it down from the Col de Sarenne, they have to ascend Alpe d’Huez again. It's never been done before, and it's a great way to mark the 100th Tour. Technically this time it's 13.8km at 8.1%. It's super steep all the way up until the last few kilometres, which are a bit flatter.

If ever a rider would want to win a stage in the TdF, then it's this one. Firstly, Pierre Rolland and Mikel Nieve should attack early on in order to catch up on Froome and Quintana in the race for the KOM jersey. Rolland and Nieve are two riders who have the potential to stay out ahead of the bunch for a long time. Rolland's team mate Tommy Voecklar has been having a rubbish tour so far, but he'll probably launch an attack at some stage. He probably won't have the legs, but I'm sure we'll see his tongue sticking out at some stage :P Another rider worth mentioning is Cadel Evans. He deliberately did a super slow TT in Stage 17, so there is a good chance he will attack today. Andy Schleck has had an awful season, but his form is improving and winning on Alpe d'Huez would make all his troubles disappear. This could be a perfect kind of stage for Dan Martin, but any attacks from him will probably result in some of the other teams reeling him back in because he's 10th overall.

There are endless possibilities about what could happen GC-wise. Ok so Froome pretty much has the tour wrapped up, but Saxo-Tinkoff and Movistar won't go down without a fight. If they have any chance of putting Froome into some difficulty then they need to attack on the first ascent of Alpe d'Huez. I think if Froome is still comfortable at the bottom of the second ascent, then he won't lose any time. Contador has Kreuziger, Rogers and Nico, while Quintana has Valverde and Rui Costa .... there's definitely enough strength there to trouble Sky, but as I said, they need to do it early on. If it is all tight with a few kilometres to go, then someone like Purito could out-sprint everyone to the finish line and take the stage win.

Finally, look out for all our fellow country-men and women on corner no. 10 of Alpe d'Huez!!





First ascent of l'Alpe d'Huez:


Second ascent of l'Alpe d'Huez:


Km / To Go | Climb | Length | Grade | Cat
13 / 160 | Col de Manse | 6.6km | 6.2% | 2
45 / 128 | Rampe du Motty | 2.4km | 8% | 3
95 / 78 | Col d'Ornon | 5.1km | 6.7% | 2
122.5 / 51 | Alpe d'Huez 1 | 12.3km | 8.4% | HC
131.5 / 42 | Col de Sarenne | 3km | 7.8% | 2
158.5 / 14 | Alpe d'Huez 2 | 13.8km | 8.1%| HC

Stage betting: C Froome 2/1; N Quintana 10/3; J Rodriguez 8/1; A Contador 8/1.

Here's a link to the Irish riders' diaries thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 10.45am, ITV4 from 1pm, and TG4 from 11.15am.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 9.30pm, ITV4 at 7pm, and TG4 at 10pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

Darkglasses

Have been looking forward to this for a very, very long time.

For some reason I don't see Froomey winning this. Not saying he'll lose time to anyone important, but I think we'll see an extraordinary amount of attacks.

Honestly I don't want any rain at all. Not just because I don't want the course altered, but because I want a purer test of who's the best on this insane stage.

MrMischief

Really hope we're not all left disappointed with this epic stage!!! Have been looking forward to it since the route was leaked in the press. GC contenders have noting to lose so surely Saxo/Movistar & Garmin (with Mollema in the wheels grrr) will attack SKY on the first ascent.

Nieve & Rolland going for KOM
Quintana and hard to spell Polish guy going for young riders

EPIC and glad I have the day booked off

Thunderstorms are forecast and its pouring rain up there at the moment so looks like we'll have a greasy surface regardless.

Fingers crossed for an exciting an eventful race

Squidgy Black

Hope Dan makes a decent stab at it and goes for a stage win. It'd be great to at least see him in a break.

retalivity

andy schleck to win by at least 30 minutes

ford2600

I'll chance a bet on Dan for Fridays stage rather than tomorrow

Darkglasses

retalivity wrote: »

andy schleck to win by at least 30 minutes

Haha Cunego and Cavendish will be 2nd and 3rd if that happens.

TheBlaaMan

You'd have to reckon that Froome is loosing the mental battle a bit, and - surprisingly - has criticised Contador attach on the descent into Gap and he now has said a few times that the descent on the Sarenne should be cancelled if it rains. Either he's loosing it, or its a very astute duble bluff at mind-games to lull the others into thinking he bricking it a bit.....

Regardless, the loose and narrow descent off the Sarenne is surely the place for fireworks tomorrow, though if the weather is bad, expect major disruption in TV coverage. Even if its fine, I cannot see how the motos will be able operate there so I suspect it will be helicopter pics only in any case.

I really hope its epic (in a way the Ventoux failed to be...) and not a damp squib because of the weather !

drogdub

Found this vid on youtube. Rough looking descent. Defo fireworks if they push it

fishfoodie

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

You'd have to reckon that Froome is loosing the mental battle a bit, and - surprisingly - has criticised Contador attach on the descent into Gap and he now has said a few times that the descent on the Sarenne should be cancelled if it rains. Either he's loosing it, or its a very astute duble bluff at mind-games to lull the others into thinking he bricking it a bit.....

He's showing us all he has the balls of a Budgie !

And yet still I have to deal with the Phil & Paul telling me what a great descender he is :rolleyes: :rolleyes: it's like watching a grannie going down icy steps when he's setting his own pace, it's why he needs Porte to show him the line, & then he gets narky when he's tracking someone else who he doesn't know.

Russman

Looking forward to another awesome display of marginal gains-ness today. Hopefully a sub 38 min up the Alpe, pulling a Sagan-like wheelie for the last km while at the same time mobile phone in one hand sending a txt. Camera zooms in and its to Wiggo, saying "now who's the f--king man ? I told you I was always the better rider, since late 2011 anyway, mwahahaha !!"

Cue cheesy inspirational music as the camera pans down the mountain at riders struggling up through the hairpins.

De Bhál

As mentioned in the opening post, coverage kicks off on Eurosport at 10.45 this morning.

Just in case you missed it.

Jawgap

For the day that's in it - an old article......

Motorcycle takes on bike on Tour de France's famous Alpe d'Huez

(ignore the story to the side about Armstrong or don't if you want a laugh!)

Chips Lovell

If the other teams have learned anything from this race, it's that they need to attack Sky early and often, as with the stage into Bagneres. As Robert Millar puts it:

Heading into the three big mountain stages if no one gets their tactics sorted then Sky will be doing what they have always done, controlling to the final climb and then putting Richie Porte on the front until it's time for Froome to finish it off. It's not exactly rocket science in terms of strategy but other than isolated moments the other teams have let that happen all too often. It wouldn't be so bad if they had no choice but with Sky being weaker than before the other teams have made some strange decisions.

Millar also highlights how well Rodriguez is going. He's the guy who's really come into form in the past few days and I reckon is now a real danger man.

Brian?

Any idea what time they'll start the first ascent of the Alpe?

Morrisseeee

Brian? wrote: »

Any idea what time they'll start the first ascent of the Alpe?

Froome should be there about.................now :pac:

Note: This Tour needs a Nibali ! especially today.......

Leroy42

Have a feeling that this will be a non event. No main contentors (if even Contador can be counted as such anymore) will not try anything on the 1st climb and even if they did Sky will simply let them go and claw them back during the descent etc.

No doubt Contador will try something but Froome is simply too strong. The stage itself might well be exciting, but from a TdF overall point of view I can't see how this stage does not suit Froome more than everyone else since he is the best climber.

Funnily enough, yesterday Schleck did a really good TT, and with being way off the lead, if he goes for it then I reckon Sky will let him go.

If main contenders are together going onto the final climb ten Froome for the stage.

carlop

What time is this expected to finish up at? I have to go to the bank at some point this afternoon but don't want to miss the end of the stage.

manafana

Still not heard if their doing the climb twice, looked at the downhill last night didnt look great but I have seen something like it in the giro before.

Betting wise I picked out contador as value since we all know he will be gunning for it, hoping fugslang can continue to go well

ThisRegard

Quintana has the youth, balls and inexperience to go mad today I think (hope).

Itziger

@Mr Mischief, you say GC contenders have nothing to lose. But Saxo have two on the podium and the leader has kicked their asses in all the big stages so far. The chances of their catching him are slim. The chances of losing a podium slot are high. I fear they'll go conservative and try to protect their positions from Movi and Rodriguez.

We'll find out soon enough anyway.

Colonialboy

Weather looks perfect to add some spice to the stage . I hope they dont shorten it.

Cloudy and hot from the start with some rains. From 14/15 h frequent violent storms to the finish with heavy rain, hail possible, wind gusts, fog at 2,000 m then 1,500 m around Alpe d'Huez.
Temperature 24° departure, then 20° wet, but 11/12° on the Alpe d'Huez with fog.

The riders are coming off a relatively easy few days, relative for the TDF, rest day > 168km 4hr > 1hr ITT ... and now this.

I think Dan should hold his attack until very very late, until the Col DeSareene or even later, unless of course the bigguns attack early, in which case game on. Let a team mate into any earlier breaks.
Theres still so many battles being fought,GC, Top 10, top3, team, young rider, even just to have a French in the top 20, or a french stage winner, he should let some of them play out before he makes his move.

Froome is rattled, as are Sky . I have to admire Contador for making some attempt to attack, even if its just makes for good TV.

Unfortunatley the coverage in France Im stuck with Vierenques smarmy grin. now off for my croissant,coffee and L'Equipe

Leroy42

Colonialboy wrote: »

Froome is rattled, as are Sky .

Have to disagree on this, don't think Sky are rattled at all. Things are a bit more complicated than last year but they have the race exactly where they want it and it seems that in Porte they have a super domestique with which to keep Froome safe until he does the business.

Contador is rattled, hence the mistakes he is making. Apparently Froome is not good on descents, so Bertie goes and crashes on a descent. Then he loses out onthe TT stage as he didn't bother to change bikes, while Froome changes his bike before the top of the hill meaning he even got a push over the top.

These are the marginal gains that Sky go on about

RobFowl

Put 40 on Froome at 2/1 and 20 on Schleck at 20/1
Makes it a bit more interesting....

Give me more

stopped lurking and decided to register today just because I'm so excited for this stage.

Just going to ignore what Froome does (bar miraculously getting dropped at least) and enjoy watching the fight for #2 play out some more

Daithi BC

I like the warning sign at the start of the Col de Sarenne: "Speed limited to 20km/h".

on_the_nickel

Stuck a fiver on Cuddles at 30/1. He coasted yesterday's TT, can descend and I reckon he's looking for one last great day at the tour.

Morrisseeee

The battle to win the stage today is probably going to be the best, ie. assuming the main contenders don't have a say. I reckon Rolland has this one earmarked and is a good e/w bet.
As for the main contenders I agree with what someone has already pointed out, J Rod could spring a surprise today!

-K2-

Webcam from the Alpe. Looks like the clouds are rolling in:

http://alpedhuez.livecam360.net/bergers

thebourke

are they going up the full ascent of alpe d'heuz twice
according to the website the first ascent is 12.3km
and the second ascent is 13.8km

pelevin

RobFowl wrote: »

Put 40 on Froome at 2/1 and 20 on Schleck at 20/1
Makes it a bit more interesting....

Modding must pay well.

Reginald P. DuM

Anyone got a timeline for the stage?

n-dawg

thebourke wrote: »

are they going up the full ascent of alpe d'heuz twice
according to the website the first ascent is 12.3km
and the second ascent is 13.8km

If you know the area, They are not going up the classic alpe finish the first time. They will turn right just after Huez and come out at the big roundabout in the les bergers quarter. Then from there head past the big supermarket and "airport".

happytramp

Come on Quintana!! Beat Froome and restore some of my faith in this race...... And for God's sake don't attack too early.

thebourke

live feed on
live.cyclingnews.com

probably start around 11.30am

GT_TDI_150

Froome is petrified of the descent after AdH1, every chance he gets he keeps saying it should be dropped from the race...

Or he's talking contador into go mad on the descent

Ormus

Itziger wrote: »

@Mr Mischief, you say GC contenders have nothing to lose. But Saxo have two on the podium and the leader has kicked their asses in all the big stages so far. The chances of their catching him are slim. The chances of losing a podium slot are high. I fear they'll go conservative and try to protect their positions from Movi and Rodriguez.

We'll find out soon enough anyway.

I agree with this. Not sure the main GC challengers have the belief that they can overtake Froome, so they may be too conservative to really have a go at him for fear of blowing up and losing their podium place.

Hope I'm wrong.

TinyExplosions

Stage has started, they're in the neutral zone still. Eurosport has it.

A_Sober_Paddy

Am I the only hoping the heavens open on the main course...bucketing pain on the ascent and descent

Give me more

Event director saying they have absolutely no plans to cancel the second climb!

Sinbad_NI

thebourke wrote: »

live feed on
live.cyclingnews.com

probably start around 11.30am

Is that just text based or audio?

Really looking for audio commentary to pass the afternoon as 5livesport are covering the cricket today.

manafana

pelevin wrote: »

Modding must pay well.

too well he didnt even bother shopping around for the bigger prices on both riders saw 3/1 and 50/1+

dastardly00

Saxo-Tinkoff already attacking

Darkglasses

Peloton in bits already

dastardly00

Sinbad_NI wrote: »

Is that just text based or audio?

Really looking for audio commentary to pass the afternoon as 5livesport are covering the cricket today.

I'm not aware of any audio commentary available. Eurosport used to have one, but I don't think they have it this year.

Darkglasses

Froome is going to find himself on his own in the next few minutes if it stays like this...

sbs2010

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Am I the only hoping the heavens open on the main course...bucketing pain on the ascent and descent

No!

I want to see the rain cause havoc. Only chance of seeing any kind of shake up at the top end of GC. Don't like Contactor much but like Froome less.

Darkglasses

DM a long way back

Sinbad_NI

dastardly00 wrote: »

I'm not aware of any audio commentary available. Eurosport used to have one, but I don't think they have it this year.

Itv4 it is then.

Reginald P. DuM

Have Porte and Dan blown already??

happytramp

Darkglasses wrote: »

DM a long way back

Either in poor form. Or saving himself for a stage win tomorrow.