Tour de France - Stage 16, Tue Jul 16, Vaison-la-Romaine - Gap, **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 16, Vaison-la-Romaine - Gap, 168 km

It's time for the almost-annual descent into Gap (it seems to happen every year nearly).

Expect a very quick stage as it's quiet short and the peloton have had a day off. Lots of riders will be dying to get into the breakaway and after 12km there is a Cat. 3 climb, the Côte de la Montagne (5.7km at 7.6%), which will serve as a perfect platform for the breakaway to form. The next climb is the Cat 2. Col de Macuègne. It starts after 40 km, and with a length of 7.6km and an average gradient of 5.2%, it should be just about difficult enough to throw the pure sprinters out the back of the peloton. If Peter Sagan isn't in the breakaway, the next 100km are flat, so the Cannodale team will have a good opportunity to catch the group up ahead.

The final climb, the Cat. 2 Col de Manse (9.5km at 5.2%) shouldn't trouble any of the big GC boys. The interesting part will be the descent...... it was here in '03 that Joseba Beloki crashed going around a corner and Lance had to go cross-country. Back in '11, Contador, Evans and Sammy Sanchez managed to drop Andy Schleck when this descent was wet.

I can't see any of the GC boys attacking on this stage as there is an ITT tomorrow. In saying that though, they will all lose time to Froome in that, so Garmin, Belkin or Saxo might attack, particularly if it's wet.

As for who might win the stage, there are loads who will fancy their chances. Sagan is favourite as he should be able to manage the climbs and he's a good descender. Sylvain Chavanel, Jan Bakelants, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Michael Albasini, and Lars Bak are good shouts for being in the breakaway. Philippe Gilbert has been super quiet so far, so I really expect him to feature. This would normally be an ideal stage for Tommy V, but he really doesn't seem to have the form. If the breakaway have been caught by the final climb, Valverde might launch an attack and it'll be hard for anyone to catch him.







Final 2km:


Last km:



Stage betting: P Sagan 5/1; S Chavanel 12/1; P Gilbert 16/1; J Hoogerland 18/1.

Here's a link to the Irish riders' diaries thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 12.30pm, ITV4 from 2pm, and TG4 from 1.10pm.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 9.30pm, Eurosport2 at 7pm, ITV4 at 7pm, and TG4 at 10.25pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

Darkglasses

Another breakaway win for Dan?

corny

Darkglasses wrote: »

Another breakaway win for Dan?

Hopefully. The GC riders might take it relatively easy but Movistar, Garmin and the likes probably won't allow a breakaway to get away. Dan or Valverde.

Reginald P. DuM

Good to get back on the bike so to speak, welcome back Dastardly.... (See you for the Vuelta?!)

Tomorrow is def a stage where the chances of a break getting up and away sucessfully are quite likely... As said above there a lot of teams and capable riders who will have either had nothing go their way so far, or will have no realistic chance after today, so from a predicting point of view its very difficult. Take your pick from about 30 riders... GC men take the day off, sprinters have no chance, and others will be waiting for the Alps to chance their arm.. The first Cat 3 climb ideal for an attack, if its small enough certain teams may pull it back with a view to getting their men on the offensive on the Cat 2 that follows. What we can be sure of is whoever wins tomorrow will need balls, the descent to finish is quick and I have heard whisperings of rain..

Dr. Bre

Chavanel for me in this stage

Darkglasses

It's a fascinating parcours. It's a great stage for a breakaway. For me, we'll finally get to see whether or not Voeckler and Cunego are past it. I have sad feeling that they are.

It is important that the likes of Garmin and Europcar do work to make sure all the usual sprinters are dropped before the finish. Although I've high hopes for some breakaway to win, Sagan will certainly be the man to beat (having not won a stage in quite a while, kittel has won 2 and Cav has won 1 in the mean time).

That said, I think this stage will go to a breakaway rider. I used to fancy Chavanel, but not anymore. Head says Albasini or Flecha. Heart says Martin. Most importantly, this'll be a fascinating stage whatever happens.

Reginald P. DuM

I agree Darkglasses, Tommy just don't seem to have it this yr. He did win a stage in the Dauphine earlier in the yr after a solo run, but I felt he could have been caught that day and this is the Tour, you win, you earn it the hard way.. He won't be in my selection, which leaves me with a mere 10 picks to narrow down before I go to bed. :eek:

Darkglasses

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

I agree Darkglasses, Tommy just don't seem to have it this yr. He did win a stage in the Dauphine earlier in the yr after a solo run, but I felt he could have been caught that day and this is the Tour, you win, you earn it the hard way.. He won't be in my selection, which leaves me with a mere 10 picks to narrow down before I go to bed. :eek:

I've only been wrong 70% of the tour so far. You can't lose!

I've been hugely disappointed with Tommy V and Cunego. Too far off the pace to get a stage win for me. Hope I'm wrong though.

If I am right about Cunego though, Lampre need to go home and give themselves a bit of a battering. There's a been a few really bad teams this year. BMC, FDJ, Cofidis, but unless they turn things around then Lampre are really lowest of the low.

Reginald P. DuM

BMC have been the real surprise for me, negatively speaking. Cadel doing ok in fairness to him, a battler despite advancing yrs. Every Grand Tour he's been in he has made top 10, a testament to his never say die attitude. Cadel aside, there's been nothing. TJ according to Sean Kelly affected by the heat?? What?!! A young fella like him, seems odd. Gilbert, wearing the rainbow jersey hasn't shown up either. Certainly hasnt honoured the jersey anyway. Though this stage could be one for him he did go well on Ventoux so maybe the legs are coming. I have my doubts however. like Lampre lot of soul searching to be done..

IM0

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Chavanel for me in this stage

was thinkming the same but then again he was in the break yesterday for 220k going flat out no doubt for bastile day, doubt he will win tomorrow, that must have knocked the edge off his win possibilities

full_irish

new to the smartphone era and gonna be on a bus with wifi for 3 hours during the race. wheres the place to keep up to date. an app i should use?

unichall

full_irish wrote: »

new to the smartphone era and gonna be on a bus with wifi for 3 hours during the race. wheres the place to keep up to date. an app i should use?

Cyclingnews tour tracker app is the best app I find, gives text updates and graphics too I.e profile and real time location of break and peloton on the profile etc

Darkglasses

full_irish wrote: »

new to the smartphone era and gonna be on a bus with wifi for 3 hours during the race. wheres the place to keep up to date. an app i should use?

I'll be watching tomorrow, and will post all the important/funny things here in this thread!

full_irish

unichall wrote: »

Cyclingnews tour tracker app is the best app I find, gives text updates and graphics too I.e profile and real time location of break and peloton on the profile etc

is the filmon app any good?

dastardly00

full_irish wrote: »

new to the smartphone era and gonna be on a bus with wifi for 3 hours during the race. wheres the place to keep up to date. an app i should use?

The cyclingnews mobile site is pretty good as well.

retalivity

any breakaway to be pulled back before the last climb & purito to hare up ahead of everyone and stay away

Reginald P. DuM

The World Champ was up and about early making his thoughts be known on Twitter.

PHILIPPE GILBERT ‏@PhilippeGilbert Contador have always his best day the day after the second rest day. So remake of 2011? Nice stage for offensive

niceonetom

I saw Contador quoted as saying that to him there's no difference between 2nd and 10th (or words to that effect), so I'm hoping that that between Saxo, Belkin, Garmin riding aggressively and teams like Lampré and Euskaltel who have nothing to show for themselves thus far we'll see some hand grenades go off today.

Kwiatowski.

dastardly00

Thibaut Pinot has abandoned with a sore throat.

gordongekko

dastardly00 wrote: »

Thibaut Pinot has abandoned with a sore throat.

and he said he is afraid of decending. That's not good if your a pro cyclist.

Reginald P. DuM

Apparently the rain has arrived to the Tour. Makes the final descent treacherous...

kenmc

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Apparently the rain has arrived to the Tour. Makes the final descent treacherous...Adds a bit of uncertainty to the equation rather than Skys "painting by numbers" approach

Should make for more interesting watching so.

Lucena

Nothing to do with cycling, but Vaison-la-Romaine was badly affected by an extreme flood in 1992.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9o3tvuN5pQ

Hard to imagine when you see how low the water level normally is compared to the height of the bridge.

RobFowl

Roche in the break !!!


Mikkel Condé v2.0 ‏@mrconde 5m

20 riders in front already. Sagan, Degenkolb, Rui Costa, Roche, Boom, De Gendt, Navardauskas, Voigt, Velits, Mori, Dumoulin among them. #Tdf

Brian?

Roche away in the break. Saxo are planning something today it seems. Contador to go long??

wonderfullife

Brian? wrote: »

Roche away in the break. Saxo are planning something today it seems. Contador to go long??

When you look at the make-up of the break, i'd be more leaning towards them sending him up there with a view to a stage win.

I can't see Contador planning anything today.....never know though!

Brian?

wonderfullife wrote: »

When you look at the make-up of the break, i'd be more leaning towards them sending him up there with a view to a stage win.

I can't see Contador planning anything today.....never know though!

I don't think Saxo have the stage win in mind, they'd be much more likely to have Roche save energy for the alps than send him out to win a stage. Today's stage is similar to the one Contador broke away on during the Vuelta. You never know, it could be just crazy enough to work.

GetWithIt

Brian? wrote: »

I don't think Saxo have the stage win in mind, they'd be much more likely to have Roche save energy for the alps than send him out to win a stage. Today's stage is similar to the one Contador broke away on during the Vuelta. You never know, it could be just crazy enough to work.

So the strategy for Sky would be to let the group get 10/15 mins to completely nullify that threat you'd imagine. Send Roche so far up the road that he'd be of no benefit.

RobFowl

Peloton Watch ‏@PelotonWatch 2m #TDF Dan Martin has bridged to the lead

Zzippy

Valverde and Dan Martin in the break now. Hesjedal and Navardauskas with Dan...

Kav0777

GetWithIt wrote: »

So the strategy for Sky would be to let the group get 10/15 mins to completely nullify that threat you'd imagine. Send Roche so far up the road that he'd be of no benefit.

Dan Martin & Valverde in the lead group per cycling news .... it won't go out to 10 -15 mins so..

Reginald P. DuM

3 Saxo guys up there now... Must be Oleg Tinkov's tweets inspriring them...

dhayes73

Has Dan Martin dropped back into the Peleton again.

Darkglasses

Kloden, Roche, Navarro, Velits, Gauthier, Astarloza, Jeanneson, Riblon, Trofimov, Didier, Gilbert, Tom Dumoulin, Gallopin, Hansen, Mori, Albasini, Quinziato, Voeckler, Coppel, De Gendt, Navardauskas, Marino, Hoogerland, Kadri, and Meyer are in the break.

Don't think Dan Martin is there anymore.

Waitsian

dhayes73 wrote: »

Has Dan Martin dropped back into the Peleton again.

No, don't think so, just saw him leading the break, I think...

Reginald P. DuM

Roche takes time to wave to Irish fans and throws them a bottle... Nice.

Darkglasses

The Dan Martin identity crisis returns

Waitsian

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/livematch/570470.html

Yeah Dan is back in the peloton.

donfers

mod9maple wrote: »

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/livematch/570470.html

Yeah Dan is back in the peloton.

nico probably asked him to drop back

pity as dan could have rode into yellow - sky would have let that happen knowing they would get back the time on the tt

probably belkin threatening to chase down the group coz dan was in it led us to missing out on one of the greatest days in irish cycling history with a nico stage win and dan into yellow

ah well we'll have to settle for the nico stage win

kenmc

donfers wrote: »

nico probably asked him to drop back

pity as dan could have rode into yellow - sky would have let that happen knowing they would get back the time on the tt

probably belkin threatening to chase down the group coz dan was in it led us to missing out on one of the greatest days in irish cycling history with a nico stage win and dan into yellow

ah well we'll have to settle for the nico stage win

you really think that
a) sky would let martin get yellow and
b) sagan would let nico beat him in a sprint finish
just to cheer up the lads in ireland? oookaayyyyy.

full_irish

Sagan is back in the peleton, no?

Mr Freeze

full_irish wrote: »

Sagan is back in the peleton, no?

According to the TDF site, he is in the peleton.

Darkglasses

full_irish wrote: »

Sagan is back in the peleton, no?

Yes he definitely is.

manafana

saxo say roche is in the break to win the stage hard rivals to beat thou and hes done more work than most in it.

Dont see any of my picks in break, however my velogames nul points are in their asterloza and vockeler.

full_irish

Darkglasses wrote: »

Yes he definitely is.

Ah so kenmc was talking out his rear end... sagan is good but it'd be some sprint from thepeleton to pip nico cus this break is gonna stay away i feel.

oh and actually darkglasses, where's the humorous updates i was promised?? :-P

corny

Nico not doing a tap in the group.

Darkglasses

full_irish wrote: »

Ah so kenmc was talking out his rear end... sagan is good but it'd be some sprint from thepeleton to pip nico cus this break is gonna stay away i feel.

oh abduction darkglasses, where's the humorous updates i was promised?? :-P

Haha there's not been very much action yet to be honest!

BQQ

If he can hang onto Velits and Rui Costa up the last climb, I'd fancy him.

Big if though.


Only 4 teams without a man in the break.

1. Sky will be happy just to watch the GC guys.
2. Cannondale/Sagan don't seem bothered about the sprint today such is his cushion in the green jersey race now.
3. Belkin will save their legs to protect Mollema's GC position, similar to Sky.
4. Astana only team with a real incentive to chase, but won't do it alone.

Definitely looks like the break will stay away. C'mon Nico this is your shot.

kenmc

Darkglasses wrote: »

Yes he definitely is.

erm nevermind then, as ye were

wonderfullife

Brian? wrote: »

I don't think Saxo have the stage win in mind, they'd be much more likely to have Roche save energy for the alps than send him out to win a stage. Today's stage is similar to the one Contador broke away on during the Vuelta. You never know, it could be just crazy enough to work.

I think we can safely assume now with the gap at over 7' 20" that they have him up there for the Stage win.

I think Nico can live with Gilbert easily on the final climb, if his legs are good obviously.

dastardly00

BQQ wrote: »

If he can hang onto Velits and Rui Costa up the last climb, I'd fancy him.

Big if though.


Only 4 teams without a man in the break.

1. Sky will be happy just to watch the GC guys.
2. Cannondale/Sagan don't seem bothered about the sprint today such is his cushion in the green jersey race now.
3. Belkin will save their legs to protect Mollema's GC position, similar to Sky.
4. Astana only team with a real incentive to chase, but won't do it alone.

Definitely looks like the break will stay away. C'mon Nico this is your shot.

Astana have lost 3 of their team so they don't have the manpower to do anything.