July Cup meeting - Newmarket

Johner

For the July Cup itself I think Shea Shea was the best horse in the race the last day against Sole Power but I do think Sole Power is good each way value at 10/1.

Shea Shea heads the market at 4/1.

Shea Shea 4/1
Society Rock 9/2
Lethal Force 9/2
Gale Force Ten 7/1
Reckless Abandon 9/1
Sole Power 10/1
Slade Power 14/1
Hamza 16/1
Shamexpress 16/1
Krypton Factor 16/1
Sovereign Debt 20/1
Havelock 33/1

byronbay2

Sole Power will definitely relish the ground but has an awful record when returning to the track having won last time out. Zero wins from 6 and was only placed (came 3rd) in 1 of those 6 races. Something to consider.

Gringo180

Reckless Abandon has to be a positive stepped back up to 6f.

carpothepunk

It'll take a good horse to beat Sir John Hawkins tomorrow I think. Form is rock, rock solid.

UrbanSea

SOVIET ROCK is a massive price at 12/1 in the handicap. Disappointed at Ascot but has very good form when accounting for this year's Arc winner on handicap debut :cool:

In a typically weak Bahrain Trophy Brian Meehan's looks a big each way price at 12/1, only won a maiden but showed a real good attitude from an easy next time out winner, pedigree screams stamina by Duke of Marmalade with his dam by linamix

tryfix

Wigmore Hall in the 2.40 at Newmarket has an 8lb turnaround in the weights with Universal for a 2 3/4l beating last time out in a messy enough race. He likes the firm ground and should be shorter in price than Universal at the weights, but he isn't so he looks like a bit of value to me.



Edit: Well that worked out well, not!

rossom

2.40 Newmarket

Wild Coco 11/2

Wild Coco unquestionably comes into this contest with the strongest form to date and if coping with the step back in trip then I think Lady Cecil's unexposed and improving 5 year old can beat the boys and land this Group 2 contest. Unraced as a 2 year old, Wild Coco built upon a highly promising 2nd on debut when winning her 2nd and 3rd starts as a 3 year old (including a Listed contest over this C+D) and despite running poorly on her final 2 starts of 2011 she bounced back with 2 impressive victories in her only starts as a 4 year old when winning a Group 3 and Group 2. On the back of virtually a year off the track, Wild Coco won the Group 3 Lillie Langtry Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting in impressive fashion when running out an impressive 2.75L winner and although the runner up Jehannedarc has been disappointing since then that form is extremely strong. The 3rd home Estimate, who again finished 3rd behind Wild Coco on the latters final start, has won both her starts as a 4 year old including the Ascot Gold Cup whilst the 4th home Hawaafez won her next outing comfortably again in Group 3 company. Wild Coco then took the step up to Group 2 company in her stride when winning authoritatively by over a length in the Park Hill stakes over an extended 14f at Doncaster last September on her final racecourse outing. In a race run at a fairly sedate pace, Tom Queally came with a powerful run inside the final couple of furlongs to win convincingly and she was well on top at the finish in another race that has worked out really well. In addition to the again 3rd Estimate's subsequent exploits, the runner up Hazel Lavery won a Group 3 on her only subsequent start whilst the 4th home Gallipot ran out a ready winner of a Listed contest on her next outing. Wild Coco was clearly a very upwardly mobile Mare last year and if continuing in the same vein of form this year she is definitely the one I feel they all have to beat. Since her last start, she has been picked up for a massive 985,000 GNS in September which says an awful lot about her breeding/racecourse potential and the fact that she hasn't had a run for 301 days doesn't concern me at all given she won on her 4 year old debut after a similar outing in impressive fashion. Fillies don't contest this race very often (2 past 2 renewals only runners in last 10 years) but Crystal Capella demolished the boys by 8L two years ago and I'm hopeful for a similar performance today. The transition of Warren Place into the control of Lady Cecil has been seamless since Sir Henry's passing and the yard are in flying form at the moment. The step back in trip isn't ideal and neither is the potential lack of pace but Wild Coco showed a turn of foot when quickening to win off a sedate gallop at Doncaster last year so she should have enough speed for 10f. A thoroughly progressive mare with only 7 starts under her belt, I am sure the best is yet to come from Wild Coco and I think she could take an awful lot of beating in what doesn't look the strongest Group 2 field ever assembled.

SRFC

Dare to Achieve has absolutely no chance in the first race at Newmarket,shocking price wont come close to winning serious laying material.

rossom

SRFC wrote: »

Dare to Achieve has absolutely no chance in the first race at Newmarket,shocking price wont come close to winning serious laying material.

Hasn't done an awful lot wrong to be fair. Beaten (albeit well) by subsequent Royal Ascot scorer Remote when over 4L clear of 3rd and won a crap maiden easily LTO. Not a race I'd ever get involved with but it doesn't look a very strong contest and he deserves his place at the head of the market.

rossom

7.20 Epsom

Uppercut 11/2

The shrewd Stuart Kittow's money always interests me and given that he won this contest last year I think Uppercut has an excellent chance of landing this contest in a first time visor. A winner at Glorious Goodwood last year off a 2lb lower mark, Uppercut's form has been a bit topsy turvy since then but he ran an absolute blinder off his current mark of 82 at Ascot when staying on late to finish beaten a little over a length in a better race than this that has worked out well. The winner Rockalong was beaten a head in a Class 2 handicap off a 4lb higher mark whilst the 2nd and 3rd have scored subsequently. Additionally, there is some strong form of those in behind and it was a very good effort. Uppercut's last run can be forgiven as he was badly hampered inside the final couple of furlongs and although getting pushed along at the time Hanagan had yet to go for the whip and given that Uppercut is a horse who needs quite a bit of time to get going he still could have reached the frame. Looking at today's race, it doesn't look like the toughest race around and represents the easiest opportunity Uppercut has faced in a while. In addition to being ideally berthed in stall 1, there seems quite a bit of pace in the race which should be ideal for Uppercut and I expect him to sit in behind the pace on the rail. Although untested at Epsom, he has won at a similarly sharp and undulating track in Goodwood and I think he should have no issue handling the track. With last years winning trainer Stuart Kittow in blinding form at present with his last 2 runners winning, I think Uppercut has an excellent chance of landing this contest in a first time visor with Kittow having a super 29% strike rate at the track.

Overthelast

Was looking for an angle in that Grp 2 at Newmarket and you've summed it up nicely Rossom. The only problem with Wild Coco is the term "mare". Fillies & mares send a shiver down my spine from a betting perspective but the rest of the field look ordinary. Was drawn initially to Calvaryman but digging into his form, his best performances have been at Meydan and that doesn't fill me with confidence.

One who caught my eye was maputo in the big handicap now that he steps back up to his proven trip. The race he won at hq 2 runs back has worked out ok, with the runner up scoring nto (albeit a class4) and gosdens feel like dancing running a blinder in a class 1 at the royal meeting.

Is Educate running in the John Smiths
this w/e? Saw him amongst the entries.

Overthelast

Just spotted feels like dancing runs in the first. Might provide a pointer to maputo's chances later.

SRFC

rossom wrote: »

Hasn't done an awful lot wrong to be fair. Beaten (albeit well) by subsequent Royal Ascot scorer Remote when over 4L clear of 3rd and won a crap maiden easily LTO. Not a race I'd ever get involved with but it doesn't look a very strong contest and he deserves his place at the head of the market.

Dont like him looks awful slow,dont like the trainer either just cant see it winning against these,Heard Space ship is well fancied to win the 3.15,


Any views on Sir John Hawkins?

superfurry1

Intermath in the second race could be interesting.;)

rossom

Yeah Educate runs in the John Smiths Cup. I took 16s earlier in the week but not for too much as I wasn't sure he was running because of a comment Terry Norman made a while ago. I've had a very large bet on today at 12s when I found out he was definitely running.

carpothepunk

Taking on Oriel later certainly. Taking on the fav here, also, which is probably a bad idea. Feel Like Dancing I think will relish the straight July course. Hopefully he hasnt sweated up before.

carpothepunk

Dashing Star a tad big here? Interesting form lines, discounting the last run.

carpothepunk

Lay, winner landed. yurt. Might **** off now.

Gringo180

Had Havana Beat there

carpothepunk

Was the sob story in the race, I think. Had him and the winner in my placepot anyway. They went absolutely no gallop.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Had Havana Beat there

same as meself Liam Keniry is so bad last time i'll back one of his mounts showed up there against proper jockeys,anyone backing that dare to achieve into favourite wants their head examined.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

same as meself Liam Keniry is so bad last time i'll back one of his mounts showed up there against proper jockeys,anyone backing that dare to achieve into favourite wants their head examined.

Shocking ride he had a chance to switch to the rail about 2f out but decided to stay in the pocket :rolleyes:

Gringo180

Like the look of Danadana in the big race today, will love the fast ground and I think he will improve for the step up in trip too, 9/2 is massive for him.

Johner

That was a cracking race to watch!

carpothepunk

Twas.

Fanning to make all here, catch a few in behind napping. If he gets an easy lead, I think he wins. Only spanner would be one of Godolphins taking him on.

Still in the placepot with two unplaced favs, too.

carpothepunk

Slow run and tactical. Suits me so far anyway.

carpothepunk

Stop that Joe

carpothepunk

And the ppot still lit. Keep her lit lads. Green to Gold tonight for all the marbles.

UrbanSea

Came out after the race that Soviet Rock.is allergic to winning

SRFC

Serious performance from Maputo there another Johnson special tailed off then bolts up breaking records by 6 lengths rancid rancid stable.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Serious performance from Maputo there another Johnson special tailed off then bolts up breaking records by 6 lengths rancid rancid stable.

Ridiculous isn't it couldn't bring myself to back any of his horses mug of a trainer.

UrbanSea

Racing can be a joke, Prescott the worst i think

carpothepunk

Big dirty aftertiming bastard, but I have gone through the card so far bar my biggest fancy of the day haha.

carpothepunk

carpothepunk wrote: »

And the ppot still lit. Keep her lit lads. Green to Gold tonight for all the marbles.

ALLLLL THE MARBLESSSS

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

Just spotted feels like dancing runs in the first. Might provide a pointer to maputo's chances later.

Cha-Ching

the groutch

worth backing Ring Them Bells in the 3:55 Dundalk if there's any money for him.

TheMilkyPirate

Not gambling today but if I was I'd be all over body and soul. My horse to follow for the year

Johner

Peach again by Lee. Cracking jockey.

Johner

Poor turnout for the fillies race here.

Backstreet Moyes

I really do hate the flat. I thought my depression couldn't get any worse it's soul destroying.

klairondavis

I had no bet but it will be a joke if that result stands. Buick made no attempt to straighten his filly.

Backstreet Moyes

I need a get out of jail card. What do people think of Moviesta. Thought it was very good form behind Body and Soul but that wasn't exactly franked.

rossom

klairondavis wrote: »

I had no bet but it will be a joke if that result stands. Buick made no attempt to straighten his filly.

I'd be of the complete opposite opinion (no money on the race). No contact between the horses (Buick hit her in the face) and there was a neck in it. Hughes had 2f to go by and Sky Lantern definitely didn't look like going by.

klairondavis

rossom wrote: »

I'd be of the complete opposite opinion (no money on the race). No contact between the horses (Buick hit her in the face) and there was a neck in it. Hughes had 2f to go by and Sky Lantern definitely didn't look like going by.

The way I saw it Buick's filly was hanging into the whip, at no stage did he put it down, grab hold of the the reins with both hands and attempt to straighten her up.

The French stewards have it right IMO.

Francie Barrett

the groutch wrote: »

worth backing Ring Them Bells in the 3:55 Dundalk if there's any money for him.

Looking at this myself - what's your reasoning, the pilot?

UrbanSea

klairondavis wrote: »

The way I saw it Buick's filly was hanging into the whip, at no stage did he put it down, grab hold of the the reins with both hands and attempt to straighten her up.

The French stewards have it right IMO.

The French are too strict. Dar Re Mi being thrown out of the Vermeille was a joke

UrbanSea

That winner in the last for Godolphin is beautifully bred by Street Cry out of a daughter of Urban Sea won on debut could be good

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

The French are too strict. Dar Re Mi being thrown out of the Vermeille was a joke

You'll neeeever let them forget that :pac:

UrbanSea

NEVER.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

That winner in the last for Godolphin is beautifully bred by Street Cry out of a daughter of Urban Sea won on debut could be good

That's a very interesting pedigree, Urban Dance DI ( 2.08 ) is a half brother to the very stoutly bred ( DI 0.58 ) 2012 Arc third Masterstroke.

Urban Dance is the most speedily bred progeny out of Melikah yet, Street Cry providing a similar injection of speed to Melikah's offspring as Cape Cross provided to her own Dam to produce her half brother Sea The Stars.

UrbanSea

How do you get the dosage index again