Your Lions XV for first test against New Zealand 2017

Glass Prison 1214

Ok I know its just off the back of the last Lions tour so what better time to look ahead to the next one. Even though its miles away what 15 would people go for? Right now I'm thinking maybe along these lines;

1. Cian Healy (29)
2. Tom Youngs (30)
3. Samson Lee (24)
4. Iain Henderson (25)
5. Courtney Lawes (28)
6. Sean O'Brien (30)
7. Justin Tipuric (27)
8. Toby Faletau (26)
9. Ben Youngs (27)
10. Johnny Sexton (31)
11. Simon Zebo (27)
12. Ashley Beck (27)
13. Manu Tuilagi (26)
14. George North (25)
15. Stuart Hogg (24)

16. Richardt Strauss 17. Alex Corbisiero 18. Dan Cole 19. Joe Launchbury 20. Sam Warburton 21. Conor Murray 22. Ian Madigan 23. Leigh Halfpenny

I have no doubt that this will be light years away from what the team will actually look like and people will criticize my omission of AW Jones and halfpenny but I'm just thinking Henderson and Hogg will be better in four years time. I like a lot of these players and am expecting players like Henderson, Lee and Hogg to elevate to world class players come New Zealand. In total it works out with 5 Irish, 5 Welsh, 4 English and a single Scott in the starting XV with 3 English, 3 Irishmen(well really two and Straussy) and 2 Welshmen on the bench which is a fairly even split. Whats everyone's team?

Please don't post comments of how its stupid to try predict the team so far out because its only meant for a bit of fun And if anyone is actually close they can quote their posts in 4 years time and talk about how they are such a genius

.ak

Wow, considering how off people were no more than 6 months ago I can only imagine getting this right would be akin to winning the lotto.

Still, if you get it right, I'll buy you a pint.

irishbucsfan

I think we'd probably have to start with guessing the coach!

SebBerkovich

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I think we'd probably have to start with guessing the coach!

Well Kidney isn't up to much right now...

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I think we'd probably have to start with guessing the coach!

Well I hope it's a Kiwi...

bilston

Impossible to pick a team but from an Irish perspective I'd hope players the following will be there or thereabouts.

Healy
Strauss
Henderson
O'Brien
O'Mahony
Ferris
Heaslip (think another tour is do-able)
Leavy
Murray
Sexton
Madigan
Jackson
Marshall
Olding
Henshaw
Zebo
Fitzgerald
Earls
Gilroy
Kearney
Bowe (maybe do-able but he'll be 33 which is old for a winger but Ieuan Evans was about that age in '97)

There are probably others, and hopefully there is some 16 or 17 year old out there that we haven't heard of yet who will come into contention.

WorldRugby99

Given it a go,but as said-impossible to tell,who will come through,who will fade,who will retire,who may be playing in france and not considered etc 4 years a long time in the rugby world..




01Alex Corbisiero(eng)
02Luke Cowan-Dickie(eng)
03Dan Cole(eng)
04Iain Henderson(ire)
05Joe Launchbury(eng)
06Sean O Brien(ire)
07Sam Warburton(wal)
08Billy Vunipola(eng)
09Luke McGrath(ire)
10Rhys Patchell(wal)
11George North(wal)
12stuart Olding(ire)
13Manu Tuilagi(eng)
14eli Walker(wal)
15Leigh Halfpenny(Wal)

subs
16Stuart Hogg(sco)
17Jonathan Sexton(ire)
18Ben Youngs(eng)
19Toby Faletau(wal)
20Courtney Lawes(eng)
21Tom Youngs(eng)
22Cian Healy(ire)
23Samson Lee(wal)

bilston

WorldRugby99 wrote: »

Given it a go,but as said-impossible to tell,who will come through,who will fade,who will retire,who may be playing in france and not considered etc 4 years a long time in the rugby world..




01Alex Corbisiero(eng)
02Luke Cowan-Dickie(eng)
03Dan Cole(eng)
04Iain Henderson(ire)
05Joe Launchbury(eng)
06Sean O Brien(ire)
07Sam Warburton(wal)
08Billy Vunipola(eng)
09Luke McGrath(ire)
10Rhys Patchell(wal)
11George North(wal)
12stuart Olding(ire)
13Manu Tuilagi(eng)
14eli Walker(wal)
15Leigh Halfpenny(Wal)

subs
16Stuart Hogg(sco)
17Jonathan Sexton(ire)
18Ben Youngs(eng)
19Toby Faletau(wal)
20Courtney Lawes(eng)
21Tom Youngs(eng)
22Cian Healy(ire)
23Samson Lee(wal)

That young Welsh FB from the JWC Jordan Williams looks an absolute star in the making and Sam Davies their 10 is another to keep an eye. The English O/S Jack Clifford could well be a Lion in the future too.

JagerScout

literally impossible to predict correctly

Robbo

SebBerkovich wrote: »

Well Kidney isn't up to much right now...

Should be a handy 15 minute commute for Eddie O'Sullivan.

Larbre34

This is a bit nonsensical as in 2009 nobody had North, Murray, Zebo, Parling, Farrell etc even on the radar.

Personally, I'm expecting Joe Schmidt to be head coach to a starting test team including 10 Irishmen brave and true, captained by Top 14 medalist Jonny Sexton who will have just helped win Leinster's fifth European Cup a year after his return from Racing Metro!

The interesting issue will be which Irish players that are beginning to make a breakthrough now will be up for selection. Guys on the right track are Tommy O'Donnell, Ian Henderson, Dominic Ryan, Niall Morris, the Killer, Straussy, Gilroy. Any others suggestions

bilston

Four years ago did anyone watch the Irish U20s and say that that Murray lad will be a test Lion in four years time?

That's why Jaeger Scout is right, it's impossible to predict. Good fun though.

jamiedav2011

A lot of people, myself included, tend to go overboard with thinking current young superstars will be brought in, but the likes of Sexton, Bowe, Heaslip, RK, even Best will still be around and possibly pushing.

I'd say it's unlikely a guy like Cowan Dickie or McGrath will be in with a shout at that stage.

Glass Prison 1214

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

A lot of people, myself included, tend to go overboard with thinking current young superstars will be brought in, but the likes of Sexton, Bowe, Heaslip, RK, even Best will still be around and possibly pushing.

I'd say it's unlikely a guy like Cowan Dickie or McGrath will be in with a shout at that stage.

How come? They will both be 24, the same age as Halfpenny, Warburton, Corbisiero and Murray currently and older then the likes of Tuilagi, Tipuric, Faletau, Gray, North, Cuthbert, Zebo and Ben Youngs. I reckon there will be a few lads who haven't even played for their clubs yet that will be in contention in four years.

Buer

8 of the test 23 on Saturday weren't professional rugby players 4 years ago; only 7 of the 23 were even internationally capped when the squad was picked in 2009. Fun to take a pop at it but if anyone could guess more than 12 of the 23 they'll be doing really well!

bilston

Buer wrote: »

8 of the test 23 on Saturday weren't professional rugby players 4 years ago; only 7 of the 23 were even internationally capped when the squad was picked in 2009. Fun to take a pop at it but if anyone could guess more than 12 of the 23 they'll be doing really well!

I suppose the only thing is that while I haven't looked at the respective age profiles of the '09 and '13 squads this squad does have the feel of being pretty young.

Out of the starting XV on Saturday you'd say that at most Adam Jones, Mike Phillips and Tommy Bowe won't be around in 2017 and actually you could argue that even they may still be in contention. In other words there is every chance that there will be far less turnover of players between 2013 and 2017 than there was between 2009 and 2013.

elefant

JagerScout wrote: »

literally impossible to predict correctly

Well, it's not literally impossible

jamiedav2011

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

How come? They will both be 24, the same age as Halfpenny, Warburton, Corbisiero and Murray currently and older then the likes of Tuilagi, Tipuric, Faletau, Gray, North, Cuthbert, Zebo and Ben Youngs. I reckon there will be a few lads who haven't even played for their clubs yet that will be in contention in four years.

Possibly yes, but I was more referring to them specifically rather than their age.

A 24 year old hooker is unlikely, and Cowan Dickie has a long, long way to go to be a Lions test starter in 4 years, particularly with Hartley and Youngs ahead of him for England.

Similarly for Luke McGrath, he's huge competition for Leinster, never mind Ireland, never mind Lions.

It definitely can happen, as we've seen with Murray for eg, but so hard to predict. That's half the fun of it though I suppose.

funtime93

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Possibly yes, but I was more referring to them specifically rather than their age.

A 24 year old hooker is unlikely, and Cowan Dickie has a long, long way to go to be a Lions test starter in 4 years, particularly with Hartley and Youngs ahead of him for England.

Similarly for Luke McGrath, he's huge competition for Leinster, never mind Ireland, never mind Lions.

It definitely can happen, as we've seen with Murray for eg, but so hard to predict. That's half the fun of it though I suppose.

Actually McGrath should be 1st choice at Leinster within 2 years and there would only be Murray ahead of him for Ireland (way over-rated) so he'd defo be thereabouts alright.

Cowan-Dickie has only just been converted from prop to hooker so that would be a long shot but look at Youngs so who knows.

O'Brien,Sexton,Zebo,Kearney,Henderson,Healy,Ferris(if fit),Fitzgerald would be dead certs IMO with maybe Olding,McGrath,Leavy,Tommy O'Donnell,O'Mahony,Madigan,Dom Ryan,Gilroy,Hanrahan as possibles.

WorldRugby99

I dont think anyone is saying-here look this is the lions side 4 years down the line-but just a typical type team that it may look like-with some from this tour still around and that there will be some newcomers. I dont think these days you will get many simon shaw types touring in the future-its becoming increasingly a younger mans game-look at the amount of pros calling it a day each season,many at relatively younger ages.The pace,the physicality-it takes it toll.That is why i dont think its stupid to suggest there will be a fair few players who are now in the 16-20 age group who will be tourists 4 years down the line.knowing who will be the ones from that age group who make it is impossible to tell but still fun to guess who will be the stars in the future.
many were predicting their lions teams only 6 months ago and getting them wrong-best a cert at hooker,ferris at 6,gray at lock etc-so 4 years out is pure guesswork!

jamiedav2011

funtime93 wrote: »

Actually McGrath should be 1st choice at Leinster within 2 years and there would only be Murray ahead of him for Ireland (way over-rated) so he'd defo be thereabouts alright.

Cowan-Dickie has only just been converted from prop to hooker so that would be a long shot but look at Youngs so who knows.

O'Brien,Sexton,Zebo,Kearney,Henderson,Healy,Ferris(if fit),Fitzgerald would be dead certs IMO with maybe Olding,McGrath,Leavy,Tommy O'Donnell,O'Mahony,Madigan,Dom Ryan,Gilroy,Hanrahan as possibles.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, it's possible though.

Would that be the way oer-rated Conor Murray who's just starred in a Lions final test now?

thomond2006

elefant wrote: »

Well, it's not literally impossible

Swiwi.

.ak wrote: »

Wow, considering how off people were no more than 6 months ago I can only imagine getting this right would be akin to winning the lotto.

Still, if you get it right, I'll buy you a pint.

If you guess the AB XV, I'll buy you a year's worth of pints...not if you're danthefan though. That's cheating Warren.

funtime93

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure about that, it's possible though.

Would that be the way oer-rated Conor Murray who's just starred in a Lions final test now?

Hardly starred.He was clearly 3rd choice throughout the tour and his game is too error-strewn for my liking.His box kicking is pathetic and he doesnt threaten around the fringes.His pass is better than McGrath alright but McGrath should improve that in time.

irishbucsfan

Wow if Murray's box kicking is pathetic I'd love to see a pro 9 who is good at it!

Swiwi.

funtime93 wrote: »

Hardly starred.He was clearly 3rd choice throughout the tour and his game is too error-strewn for my liking.His box kicking is pathetic and he doesnt threaten around the fringes.His pass is better than McGrath alright but McGrath should improve that in time.

My my, we do have high expectations of our 9s there, funtime. I'm guessing you're not from the more southern parts of the republic. When jamiedav is finding Murray not too bad, you know he's actually been playing decent enough. He'll definitely be one of the first names on Schmidt's teamsheet come November Internationals.

matthew8

It's this stupid idea that a box kick is only ever an up and under and it's never used to clear the ball downfield. It's absurd, especially considering the most obvious advantage of box-kicking is that you're essentially getting an extra 10 metres of territory. Conor Murray has one hell of a boot on the box kick and can clear it miles downfield, just like Pienaar and Genia. It's a great asset, being able to kick the ball from your own 22 to the other off a ruck.

bilston

funtime93 wrote: »

Hardly starred.He was clearly 3rd choice throughout the tour and his game is too error-strewn for my liking.His box kicking is pathetic and he doesnt threaten around the fringes.His pass is better than McGrath alright but McGrath should improve that in time.

Minus the bit about McGrath this post is all wrong.

Murray's box kicking was superb in the Lions series.

Murray doesn't threaten around the fringes? Are you serious?

He has his faults, but these aren't them.

Hype710

Must write this guess down and see if I get any right...

J Williams, North, Tuilagi, Olding, Zebo, Farrell, McGrath, Healy, Youngs, Cole, Launchbury, Jones, O'Brien, Kvesic, Faletau.
Owens, Corbisiero, Lee, Henderson, Tipuric, Murray, Sexton, Davies.

Hagz

Corbisiero,Youngs,Moore,Launchbury,Henderson,Leavy,Tipuric,Faletau,McGrath,Ford,Walker,Beck,Tuilagi,North,Dardis

Klunk_NZ

Gatland to coach.

Glass Prison 1214

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

Gatland to coach.

Schmidt to coach.

irishbucsfan

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

Gatland to coach.

Fine with me. Just no Howley.

I think Gatland and O'Shea would work great together

irishbucsfan

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

Schmidt to coach.

Yeah, New Zealand!

jacothelad

Rhodri Jones, young Scarlets prop looks ready to be a super star.. I've seen a bit of this guy and he is a wrecking machine in the making. I'd say that by 2017, if he develops as he could, he'll be there. Sometimes you see a player and you know he has that certain something that is recognisable as top quality straight away. Jones has it. Olding has it. Henderson also. Zebo, marshall and Gilroy fall into that bracket in varying degrees.

desertcircus

I don't think I know enough about still-developing players to make any particularly confident calls about who will or won't make it, but Irish players I'd think are a likely bet for four years are Healy, Strauss, Henderson, O'Brien, Murray, Madigan, Sexton and Zebo. Possibles would be Kilcoyne, Cronin, Ryan (both Donnacha and Dippy), Jackson, Bowe and Heaslip - age being the big question for the last two, and potentially for Donnacha Ryan as well. In terms of wild punts, I suspect you could do worse than throw a couple of quid on Harrison Brewer getting into the squad.

twinytwo

bilston wrote: »

Impossible to pick a team but from an Irish perspective I'd hope players the following will be there or thereabouts.

Healy
Strauss
Henderson
O'Brien
O'Mahony
Ferris
Heaslip (think another tour is do-able)
Leavy
Murray
Sexton
Madigan
Jackson
Marshall
Olding
Henshaw
Zebo
Fitzgerald
Earls
Gilroy
Kearney
Bowe (maybe do-able but he'll be 33 which is old for a winger but Ieuan Evans was about that age in '97)

There are probably others, and hopefully there is some 16 or 17 year old out there that we haven't heard of yet who will come into contention.

Id love to see it, i doubt he will make another 4 months not to mind 4 years... that ankle just wont last.

Thekidneybean

Would be great to see Fitzgerald but injuries getting the better of him hope he's back soon!!!!!

jm08

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

Schmidt to coach.

I'd say Vern Cotter and Schmidt might be a favoured coaching ticket by the Scottish & Irish fans at least. I can't see Gatland getting the Scottish RU vote the next time (and I'd imagine BODgate hasn't gone down well in Lansdowne Rd either).

corny

jm08 wrote: »

I can't see Gatland getting the Scottish RU vote the next time (and I'd imagine BODgate hasn't gone down well in Lansdowne Rd either).

One Englishman in the final test 15 and completely ignored the England captain; hardly endeared himself to the RFU either.

andrewdcs

matthew8 wrote: »

It's this stupid idea that a box kick is only ever an up and under and it's never used to clear the ball downfield. It's absurd, especially considering the most obvious advantage of box-kicking is that you're essentially getting an extra 10 metres of territory. Conor Murray has one hell of a boot on the box kick and can clear it miles downfield, just like Pienaar and Genia. It's a great asset, being able to kick the ball from your own 22 to the other off a ruck.

I'm a massive hater of box kicking generally, you see it way too often in the past couple of seasons as backines are pushed right up and flat when they have the ball deep in their 22. Unless the kick is perfectly weighted for the chase, or flies over the full backs head (which would be a huge positional mistake for whoevers at fullback) they invariably concede possession and territory.


Murrays though, the latter part of the season, I can remember only one that wasnt inch perfect. Thats hard.

andrewdcs

There will probably be about 10 who toured this year, so anyone 27 or under is putting themselves in the frame.

Likes of Hogg, Farrell could be starters.

As the man said: Where all the hookers at?
Really didnt have much certainty in the lineout to anywhere past 4.... which limits attack quite a bit. How can the home nations not produce ONE total pro hooker for their main technical skill.

irishbucsfan

andrewdcs wrote: »

I'm a massive hater of box kicking generally, you see it way too often in the past couple of seasons as backines are pushed right up and flat when they have the ball deep in their 22. Unless the kick is perfectly weighted for the chase, or flies over the full backs head (which would be a huge positional mistake for whoevers at fullback) they invariably concede possession and territory.


Murrays though, the latter part of the season, I can remember only one that wasnt inch perfect. Thats hard.

If they concede possession AND territory then it must be an awful kick.

However the vast majority of them that I've seen in the past couple of seasons haven't been doing that!

andrewdcs

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If they concede possession AND territory then it must be an awful kick.

However the vast majority of them that I've seen in the past couple of seasons haven't been doing that!

maybe not first phase, but I'd rather my team had possession in their 22 than the opposition had it 15 meters away.

Against teams like NZ / Australia or anyone with strike runners, the box kick is less than a 50/50 my book. You don't have enough control to avoid it going into the fullbacks guts. Kicking from 10, you lose 10m+ / second of two on the chase but can position the ball (and your defensive line )to drop where you want it more often.
Almost frowned upon but against many teams, conceding a lineout around half way isn't as dangerous as giving their backs ball in the field with 5 yards space.

Anyway, I think come 2017 the rules will have changed even more so to make the game faster and to keep ball in play / speed up restarts.

bilston

desertcircus wrote: »

I suspect you could do worse than throw a couple of quid on Harrison Brewer getting into the squad.

I'm not having a go at you desertcircus as I like to hype young players too, it's just your post made me think of this but the way this kid gets hyped on here...no doubt not helped by Hook's ramblings last year...I'm now expecting him to be better than O'Driscoll!

.ak

Brewer really has struggled to step up. Out of the current crop it's more likely that Dardis will make the step up to international level. You just can't bet on these things.

Tox56

.ak wrote: »

Brewer really has struggled to step up. Out of the current crop it's more likely that Dardis will make the step up to international level. You just can't bet on these things.

I wouldn't say Brewer struggled at all, he was a standout for the Ireland U18s this year. I had previously doubted his move to 12 but he looked very promising there. You're right on Dardis though, Bernard Jackman watched the U18 tournament and although he had good things to say about a lot of the players he said Dardis was 'special'. Isn't Kearney under the high ball so he needs work on that, but he is an outstanding talent

.ak

I'm only really saw Brewer at schools level so I'm basing my judgement on that. Didn't catch any of the Ireland games.

Tox56

.ak wrote: »

I'm only really saw Brewer at schools level so I'm basing my judgement on that. Didn't catch any of the Ireland games.

Fair enough he didn't have much opportunity this year, but in one of the Terenure tries this year he gave a beautiful delayed pass to Dardis (who took a great angle himself) off the top of a lineout, that was a fairly classy try for a schools level match. You can see the potential those 2 have in that move alone.

JagerScout

Brewer also played the whole season with a hip injury which he had to get two surgeries to fix recently.

Webbs

Sam Davies could be in with shout for the No10 slot