Outright accumulator 2013/2014

stingerro

I had decided to make a proper outright accumulator for the first team in my live. Following last season winning example (which was posted in our forum by brother of the winner - http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/06/02/punter-scores-e100k-from-e150-accumulator-after-fc-basle-win-the-swiss-league/) I am ready to invest 150... not pounds, but polish zlotych (30 pounds) for accum for a new season.

I am open to all opinions, especially from lower UK leagues. Marathonbet has an excellent offer in this market and limits are decent as well.

So far I am ready to back:
1) Spain. Primera Division. Winner. 2013/14: Barcelona
Price: 1.727
2) France. Ligue 1. Winner. 2013/14: Paris Saint-Germain
Price: 1.333
3) Italy. Serie A. Winner. 2013/14: Juventus
Price: 1.727

I don't like odds for Bayern around 1.10, as Borussia is still a force. And I don't see a point of backing Celtic with odds around 1.01. And English Premier League winner is too big of a question mark to be put in such accumulator.

I also like QPR to win Championship, as I believe - especially with Redknapp in charge - they will be a clear winner in similar way to Newcastle won their promotion back a few years ago. Odds look great at 2.50.

Turkish contacts are telling me Galatasaray will win it for sure, but there is no odds for that on Marathonbet.

And last thing (for now) - if we want to include Russian Premier League in our accumulator, we have to complete it until July 14th, as also deadline for Austrian Bundesliga is July 20th.

Good luck and hoping for some quality input here.

IncognitoMan

If your going for the championship id only do a to get promoted bet on a team. Its too unpredictable for my liking.

Barca, PSG and juve are definitely in mine as well

EDIT: Its between arsenal and spurs for 4th again imo so which would be better bet Arsenal W/O the big 3 at 8/11 or spurs 3/1?

Im leaning towards arsenal if they sign they players they are being linked with. Higuain could be a great buy for them

stingerro

IncognitoMan wrote: »

If your going for the championship id only do a to get promoted bet on a team. Its too unpredictable for my liking.

You're right and after double checking everything 2.50 for QPR is to be promoted, 6.0 is to win a Championship. The former is a no brainer for me.

IncognitoMan

Went about on a bit of a mad one.

Man utd community shield (90 min)
Bayern munich
PSG
Barca
Juve
Arsenal without top 3
Bolton to be promoted
Spain world cup

About 310/1 :cool:

I should say I haven't placed it just looking at prices

PunterAssist

stingerro wrote: »

So far I am ready to back:
1) Spain. Primera Division. Winner. 2013/14: Barcelona
Price: 1.727
2) France. Ligue 1. Winner. 2013/14: Paris Saint-Germain
Price: 1.333
3) Italy. Serie A. Winner. 2013/14: Juventus
Price: 1.727

I don't like odds for Bayern around 1.10, as Borussia is still a force.

1) Odds are correct in my opinion so why bet?
2) PSG win & Ibra top scorer is 2.8 which is much better value
3)Can be had at 1.83 - decent enough bet now that they have the extra firepower up front.

Bayern are available at 1.2, slight value especially if Lewandowski leaves Dortmund. 2 horse race.

PunterAssist

stingerro wrote: »

You're right and after double checking everything 2.50 for QPR is to be promoted, 6.0 is to win a Championship. The former is a no brainer for me.

You might want to wait to see who stays at QPR, a lot of crap players on wages too high for Championship revenue. 2.5 is not value. The Championship is a very tough league.

IncognitoMan

Think Id prefer Bolton for the promotion for the reasons punter pointed out.

QPR are a circus, Similar to Blackburn last year. Bolton have had a season there and only just missed out on promotion last season and really seemed to be in great form towards the end of the season.

Does anyone follow Bolton can they give us an opinion on if they are likely to improve from last year?

Just on the point about PSG/Zaltan double, Falcao worries me a bit too much for that bet. I hate to lose this accumulator because falcao got one more goal than Ibra

stingerro

Falcao worries me, but Ranieri doesn't. Or the fact that it's rare to see teams with huge money injection winning big in 1st year.

And I disagree pretty much with the rest as well. Also dont' see how Bayern at 1.2 is value and Barcelona or Juventus at their odds arent, as IMO Borussia is much bigger threat to Bayern that any team to Barca and Juve from their respective leagues.

kerosene

I think Ipswich are worth looking at 6/1 to get promoted. Mick McCarthy has an excellent record in the championship. Villa are 2/1 to finish in top half, I think Lambert will get much more from his squad this year. Im 50/50 about doing liverpool to finish in the top four this year with no euro distractions.

SheldonC17

As the Premier League winner is so difficult to call I suggest betting on "Top 10" market. Teams such as West Ham at 2/1 appeal to me.

bradlente

Juve are the only outright I really like right now.Hoping to match them up with 2 or 3 more at least but I'm not too keen on the big leagues.

England could go any which way,In Spain I think Real might be a bit refreshed and could give Barce a good run for their money and with France PSG are just too small.I'd be fuming if the 1.33 bet in the accum didn't come in.

Dortmund seem real value to me.They'll miss Gotze but they've made some good signing's and Klopp is such a quality manager.I think they can close at least some of the gap Bayern put ahead of them last season.

martineatworld

IncognitoMan wrote: »

Think Id prefer Bolton for the promotion for the reasons punter pointed out.

QPR are a circus, Similar to Blackburn last year. Bolton have had a season there and only just missed out on promotion last season and really seemed to be in great form towards the end of the season.

Does anyone follow Bolton can they give us an opinion on if they are likely to improve from last year?

Just on the point about PSG/Zaltan double, Falcao worries me a bit too much for that bet. I hate to lose this accumulator because falcao got one more goal than Ibra

Same here, wouldn't touch QPR given the uncertainty around what players will be there and whether they'll be bothered.

Bolton really picked up under Dougie last year, great run towards the end of the season.

They've lost Marcos Alonso, Jay Spearing, Craig Dawson, Sam Ricketts and Kevin Davies this year, 4 solid players from last year and then Kevin Davies wasn't played for the second half of the season. Dawson in particular was only on a 3 month loan but made a huge contribution.

But this year they'll have Medo Kamara (joined in January) who's a smilar DM sytle play to Spearing but with an eye for a pass, Stuart Holden is finally showing signs of returning to his best after being out for most of last season, David wheater returning from injury and Alex Baptiste should shore up the defence: there never was a regular starting centre back pairing. The Jermaine Beckford transfer should come through, which should hopefully try and sort out Bolton's biggest problem: A 20+ goals a season striker. Sordell and Ngog just haven't been consistent enough.

The Bolton midfield looks very solid, and possibly the best in the championship. If Beckford can grab the goals and Baptiste can help shore things up at the back then I'd be very optmisitic of their chances of a top 2 finish, nevermind the playoffs.

FatRat

Norwich have just completed the signing of Leroy Fer. So that's Van Wolfswinkel, Nathan Redmond, Fer and Olsson that Norwich have signed worth noting. These lads mean business this year. In fact I think with those 4 signings alone they have dramatically increased their ability and with more transfers to come (apparently), they should finish in the top 10.

Norwich top 10 finish @5/1

Real Madrid @ 5/4
Outright Betting
La Liga 2013-2014

Galatasaray @ 5/6
Outright Betting
Turkish Super League 2013-14

Porto @ evens
Outright Betting
Portuguese Super Liga 2013-14

Ajax @ 5/4
Outright Betting
Dutch Eredivisie 2013-2014

PSG @ 4/11
Outright Betting
Ligue 1 2013-14

Juventus @ 4/5
Outright Betting
Serie A 2013-14

Celtic @ 1/66
Outright Betting
Scottish Premier League Outright 2013-14

Bayern Munich @ 1/5
Outright Betting
Bundesliga 2013-2014

Man City @ 23/10
Outright Betting
Premier League Outright Betting 2013-2014

€10 to win €1,831.61

Nuts102

Looking at this but not betting anything until some transfers are sorted out.

€5 returns €490.
Juventus
Bayern
Barca
PSG
Man United
RVP top goalscorer
Reading to be promoted

Starscream25

some nice accumulators here lads, im thinking of putting down a big one, im thinking barcelona, juventus and psg for sure, they all won by big margins last year.
The english premier league is very uncertin this year, jose could pull it out of the bag, city Will be in with a run and although i think united will pip it this year (especially is they get fabregas) it will be tight but too close for comfort.
dortmund will be out for revenge so i think it will be tight in germany too so going to avoid that one. i couldnt be arsed with celtic. in portugal the benifica porto battle is only going to be 50/50 so ill avoid that one too
my other interests are ajax, anderlecht and galatasary.

my only qualm about these teams is that all of them are the current champions in there own leagues, what are the chances of them all winning again, slim to none i think.maybe 4 or 5 will pull it off, so what say you????
Barcelona?
Juventus?
PSG?
Galatasary?
Anderlecht?
Ajax?

Fowler87

FatRat wrote: »

Norwich have just completed the signing of Leroy Fer. So that's Van Wolfswinkel, Nathan Redmond, Fer and Olsson that Norwich have signed worth noting. These lads mean business this year. In fact I think with those 4 signings alone they have dramatically increased their ability and with more transfers to come (apparently), they should finish in the top 10.

Norwich top 10 finish @5/1

Have also got on this but @ 9/2. I'd say price will drop even further with the signing of Hooper from Celtic

Nuts102

Anybody think Negredo at 20/1 could be decent value for top scorer.

Dio On The Doubles

I'm trying to piece together an accumulator involving outright league and also markets like top goal scorer etc. Betfair and powers don't' seem to allow these combined. Anyone know of a bookie that does?. The reason i want to do this is that in some leagues (Premier and La Liga in particular) I am not sure who will win.

I'm holding off till nearer the season to place it but fancy

Benfica in Portugal. Porto sold the starts so bedding in year for them?.

PSG in France (don't think Monaco will fire to top in first year) - also what do ye reckon on Cavanni, Ibra, Falcao top scorer chances?.

The Norwich in top ten bet mentioned further up thread appeals a lot. I don't think I will be able to put it in an accum but will probably take it single.

Bale to get in top 4 goal scorers (given he stays) appealed to me trading around 4 on betfair a while back. The arrival of Paulinho could take him out of the hole position and into a flatter formation though which might affect this.

What are the thoughts on Barca/Madrid now that Barca have Newell's manager in place and Madrid Ancelotti?.

Cheers

Warper

Just seen this on the PP website if anyone is interested. Havnt checked the cumulative odds but obv. dodgy one is Chelsea

Chelsea to win the Premier League PSG to win the French Ligue 1, Juventus to win Serie A, and Barcelona to win the Spanish La Liga. All 2013-14. 14-1

Gavin "shels"

The pull out was in the Racing Post today, completely forgot to post earlier.

Fitzcal

I think there might be a bit of value in Ross county to win the spl without Celtic @10/1
They have recruited well and are normally very hard to beat up in Dingwall
Motherwell finished second last season but have lost most of their best players
Aberdeen are too inconsistent for 9/4 to be of value
Dundee utd have lost johnny Russell and daly do I can't see where their goals will come from
Hibs have lost Leigh Griffiths who was pretty much their only scoring danger

Gavin "shels"

After reading through the Racing Posts pull out and BBC team by teams reviews I've come up with an ambitious season outright bet (done one last season which started unreal but died late on). Keeps me interested in English football and stops me from betting on the Leagues tbh.

Man City - Premier League Champions
Watford - To Be Promoted
Brentford - To Be Promoted
Chesterfield - To Be Promoted
Ajax - Dutch Champions
Galatasaray - Turkish Champions
Anderlecht - Belgian Champions

1117/1 with Paddy Power

Fowler87

Do you reckon the RP football previews are still in the shops Gav, or was it just a special for yesterdays paper? wouldn't mind gettin a copy

PunterAssist

Gavin shels wrote: »

After reading through the Racing Posts pull out and BBC team by teams reviews I've come up with an ambitious season outright bet (done one last season which started unreal but died late on). Keeps me interested in English football and stops me from betting on the Leagues tbh.

Man City - Premier League Champions
Watford - To Be Promoted
Brentford - To Be Promoted
Chesterfield - To Be Promoted
Ajax - Dutch Champions
Galatasaray - Turkish Champions
Anderlecht - Belgian Champions

1117/1 with Paddy Power

Watford had a lot of loanees last season, most of the good ones are gone.

PunterAssist

I really like that Norwich Top 10 finish bet @ 5/1 which is still available with Boyles.

Edit:

I was looking in to this bet a bit more:

In the top 10 almost certainly will be:

1. Chelsea
2. Man City
3. Man Utd
4. Arsenal
5. Liverpool
6. Tottenham
7. Everton


That leaves 3 places.


The likely contenders are:

Newcastle
Southampton
West Brom
Swansea
Villa
Sunderland
Stoke
Norwich
Fulham

Of those contenders I would rate Swansea, Newcastle and West Brom better than Norwich.

I would rate Fulham, Villa, Stoke, Southampton, Sunderland on an equal footing with Norwich.

In my opinion Norwich are equal to or worse than 8 teams who will be fighting for 3 places so 5/1 does not appeal to me. If you are going for a season long accum you can only put in one bet from the premier league - there are better ones to be had.

PunterAssist

Atletico Madrid (without big 2) currently best priced at 2.63

Bertser

PunterAssist wrote: »

Watford had a lot of loanees last season, most of the good ones are gone.

The majority of them are back, they've also signed Lewis McGugan, if he hits form he's a very good player in my opinion.

Trimm Trabb

Swansea to finish in top 10 @ 2/1
Swansea to finish above WBA @ 10/11
Norwich to finish above Stoke and 3 promoted sides @5/2 (small stake on Norwich top 10 @9/2)
Soldado over 14 league goals @ 5/6
Bony over 12 league goals @ Evens

Longer odds:

Swansea (without the top 6) 10/1 (with EW paying 1/4 odds if they finish in top 9)
Chelsea, Barca, Juve, PSG acca at 14/1
Darren Bent: Top English Goalscorer 20/1
Coutinho most assists 16/1

Yankee:
Chelsea to win League Cup 13/2
Napoli to win Coppa Italia 6/1
Wigan to be promoted 11/4
Norwich to finish above Stoke and 3 promoted sides @5/2

PunterAssist

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Bony over 12 league goals @ Evens

Nice spot. Should be in the region of 1/2.

PunterAssist

cazorla to outscore kagawa 1.57

soldado to outscore negredo 1.83

pp