Tour de France - Stage 7, Fri Jul 5, Montpellier - Albi, **Unmasked Spoilers**

dastardly00

Stage 7, Montpellier - Albi, 205.5 km

Given the bumpy profile of the stage, a breakaway would normally have a great chance in reaching the finish line ahead of the peloton, but this will be the last chance until Tuesday for the sprinters to contest for the win, I can't see a breakaway making it. In saying that though, I don't think it will come down to a showdown between all the sprinters like in Stage 5. This is because the riders will face some tough climbs during the middle part of the stage, and I can see some of the pure sprinters struggling, like they did earlier in the week in Corsica.

After an easy first 50km, the road starts going uphill and the peloton will tackle the Cat. 3 climb Col des 13 Vents. It's 6.9 km in length, with an average gradient of 5.6 %, and the max is 8%. All in all that's a pretty tough Cat. 3 climb. Next up is the Cat. 2 climb of Col de la Croix de Mounis.
It's 6.7 km long, with an average gradient of 6.5% but the max is over 10%. When the riders reach the feed zone, they'll know that the hardest part of the stage is over, but the two remaining climbs might still prevent any body who had earlier been dropped from catching back up to the peloton. The route into the finish is fairly straightforward, with only some roundabouts being the main hazard.

I think either Sagan or Cav will win this. Sagan because he'll have no problems with the climbs, and he's come so close to winning a stage on a number of occasions, that I think the elusive victory will arrive sooner rather than later. Cav could win today because he was raging after the end of the previous stage, and when this happens, he's normally able to channel this anger into making himself perform better the next day. I can't see Kittel contesting for the victory, he's been hopeless so far whenever the road kicks uphill. It's a tougher call on whether Greipel will be able to hang on.






Last 6km:


Final kilometre:



Stage betting: M Cavendish 15/8, P Sagan 11/4, A Greipel 4/1, M Kittel 16/1.

Here's a link to the Irish riders' diaries thread.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 12.45pm, and ITV4 from 2pm.
Highlights on Eurosport1 at 6pm, 9pm and 11.30pm, ITV4 at 7pm, and TG4 at 9.20pm.

Live text-ticker will be here.

manafana

The hardest climbs are the first two, and cannondale don't have the power in my view to shed sprinters, depends if other teams have enough interest to help create a very early pace.

Just dont see GC men wanting to work hard to shed sprinters today. Also depends on the strength of the break. SPrinters need to put a weak break out and no strong riders who could push on a big break.

Griepel is looking strong and this finish suits him again

TinyExplosions

Just to warn everyone, I've turned my toxic powers of the jinx on EBH today with a fiver each way as an outside bet

REBELSAFC

TinyExplosions wrote: »

Just to warn everyone, I've turned my toxic powers of the jinx on EBH today with a fiver each way as an outside bet

Right on cue from the BBC

OUCH!
There has been a spill in the peloton and Team Sky's Edvald Boasson Hagen is one of those to get an early taste of tarmac. The Norwegian, who is second overall, is back up riding. Meanwhile, Voigt and his fellow escapee Blel Kadri are making their bid for glory stick - they are more than two minutes clear.

IM0

REBELSAFC wrote: »

Right on cue from the BBC

OUCH!
There has been a spill in the peloton and Team Sky's Edvald Boasson Hagen is one of those to get an early taste of tarmac. The Norwegian, who is second overall, is back up riding. Meanwhile, Voigt and his fellow escapee Blel Kadri are making their bid for glory stick - they are more than two minutes clear.

I actually thought you were taking the piss, but carlton confirmed it!

Darkglasses

Why not bet on Carlton to win something, Tiny?

buffalo

Dammit, I had Kadri in my fantasy team until yesterday.

manafana

HA you do have to laugh. Quintana also down some spilts caused by cannondale on this climb but with 100km + to go over top cannondale will need allies

Wishbone Ash

Phil Ligget is beginning to annoy me.

Any time there is some great camera work or arty shots he refers to 'our' camera crew or 'our' pictures. When the footage breaks up, disappears or a significant incident isn't covered he distances himself from it 'we have no control over these shots' or 'this isn't our feed'.

TinyExplosions

REBELSAFC wrote: »

Right on cue from the BBC

OUCH!
There has been a spill in the peloton and Team Sky's Edvald Boasson Hagen is one of those to get an early taste of tarmac. The Norwegian, who is second overall, is back up riding. Meanwhile, Voigt and his fellow escapee Blel Kadri are making their bid for glory stick - they are more than two minutes clear.

It's a skill, it has to be!

pelevin

Is Chavanel with the main peloton or back with Cavendish?

manafana

pelevin wrote: »

Is Chavanel with the main peloton or back with Cavendish?

peleton you can spot him on red bike, and the nasty calf tatoo

pelevin

manafana wrote: »

peleton you can spot him on red bike, and the nasty calf tatoo

Cheers, a couple of euros to go on him so at 40/1.

pelevin

Sorry just to add - any quick opinion on whether Chavanel punt makes sense?

IM0

manafana wrote: »

peleton you can spot him on red bike, and the nasty calf tatoo

wtf is he at, he needs to get get his ass back to cav :eek: he's a HORSE!!


he's probably only there cause the polish GC guy on the team is.

IM0

pelevin wrote: »

Sorry just to add - any quick opinion on whether Chavanel punt makes sense?

none, hes not there to win, but to slow down the group and support kwiatowski for the GC

manafana

CHav and kwia are bit too good to do donkey work for cavendish OPQS are right to let them play their role.

On the bet, its not for me Chav is a good rider but this finish for the sprinters and chav cant beat the ones who get over climbs like impey, boassen hagen and sagan

MPFG

Maybe Philip Gilbert today ???/

pelevin

IM0 wrote: »

none, hes not there to win, but to slow down the group and support kwiatowski for the GC

Cheers but I don't see how Chavanel can slow down the group, all he realistically can do I'd have thought is not speed it up.

IM0

pelevin wrote: »

Cheers but I don't see how Chavanel can slow down the group, all he realistically can do I'd have thought is not speed it up.

exactly. hes a passenger and looking after kwiatowski if he needs it

pelevin

IM0 wrote: »

exactly. hes a passenger and looking after kwiatowski if he needs it

I think I probably read too much into the downhill extended finish given Chavanel's descending abilities - & the presumed absence of Cavendish and the gang him being given perhaps a bit of a free rein - but it's not really anything like 'that' kind of a downhill really, is it.

Anyone

Few euro on Kristoff E/W done today.

MPFG

Gosh the chase is on....not sure I would want to be in Lotto or OPQS....very hard day

Hard for cannodale too

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

Cheers but I don't see how Chavanel can slow down the group, all he realistically can do I'd have thought is not speed it up.

If he comes to the front he can disrupt the rhythm of the leaders. If he can get into their train then he can let a wheel go or not pull through at the right pace and generally get in peoples way - all impeding the momentum of the peleton. Lots of stuff he can do - maybe take a different line on a descent, or brake a little bit more for a tight corner if needed.

pelevin

mcgratheoin wrote: »

If he comes to the front he can disrupt the rhythm of the leaders. If he can get into their train then he can let a wheel go or not pull through at the right pace and generally get in peoples way - all impeding the momentum of the peleton. Lots of stuff he can do - maybe take a different line on a descent, or brake a little bit more for a tight corner if needed.

I'd have thought that'd be more realistic in the close of a race, and I'm guessing long by that stage it'll be game up for the Cav bunch that he might be trying to help with that kind of riding.

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

I'd have thought that'd be more realistic in the close of a race.

Probably easier to do at this stage of the race though. When they're really on the gas in the final kilometres then it'd be harder for Chavanel to get up there. There were some excellent disruptive tactics on view in the Tour of California this year - can't remember the stage, but it was the one where the big teams formed echelons and dropped a lot of the smaller teams - they still had a few riders in the chase group that were constantly breaking up the rhythm.

TinyExplosions

So, not to tempt fate, but is EBH in the yellow jersey group?

MPFG

Wouldn't it be ironic if Sagan didn't win today

Imagine its a breakaway or soemone else ( Gerrans/Gibert)

MPFG

Looking at Mark Cavandish's face ...looks like there might be more shouting tonight

buffalo

TinyExplosions wrote: »

So, not to tempt fate, but is EBH in the yellow jersey group?

Yes, Kirby keeps favouring him for the sprint because he's had an easy ride.

A_Sober_Paddy

Still find it amazing how the top sprinters can't climb...will sagan contend for the gc this year? This is only my second tour, so still a noob

TinyExplosions

buffalo wrote: »

Yes, Kirby keeps favouring him for the sprint because he's had an easy ride.

He won't win thanks to my bet, but at least he's in there -hasn't been mentioned once on ITV

Anyone

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Still find it amazing how the top sprinters can't climb...will sagan contend for the gc this year? This is only my second tour, so still a noob

Dont think he will be involved for GC, I recon the mountains will kill any chance of that. I think he'll take the points jersey though(green).

A_Sober_Paddy

Anyone wrote: »

Dont think he will be involved for GC, I recon the mountains will kill any chance of that. I think he'll take the points jersey though(green).

yeah his miles ahead in the points race...if he win's today the green is his

godtabh

I was expecting a bunny hop or wheelie or something.

That was some sprint to catch up and win

godtabh

Did Saxo let some one contest the sprint?

Is that a positive for Nico of an opportunity arises?

Darkglasses

Sagan wins by a country mile.

Bennati sprinted for Saxo, came third.

Sagan, Degenkolb, Bennati

TinyExplosions

Told ya, I jinxed EBH! -who to turn my attentions to tomorrow...

D3PO

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Still find it amazing how the top sprinters can't climb...

They surely can climb they would smack the arses of (most) A1's up a mountain, its just they cant climb as fast as the lighter pro lads.

MPFG

I love Sagan....the things he says - like when asked yesterday who his main rival i the Tour he said "Unluck"

and how he laughs even when he does some trick or silly prank....He reminds me of Ernie from Sesame Street

MPFG

TinyExplosions wrote: »

Told ya, I jinxed EBH! -who to turn my attentions to tomorrow...

Froome ??

A_Sober_Paddy

D3PO wrote: »

They surely can climb they would smack the arses of (most) A1's up a mountain, its just they cant climb as fast as the lighter pro lads.

I didn't say they wouldn't...I just find the gap between the top riders and the sprinters very hard to understand

D3PO

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I didn't say they wouldn't...I just find the gap between the top riders and the sprinters very hard to understand

in percentage terms the gaps aren't that big. They aren't going to contend for the GC so why would you waste energy on the climbs ? They do enough to make the time limit and save their legs for the flat stages.


Its fair to say the sprinters never do more than they need to in the high mountains so don't look at the time gaps and read it as the literal gap in climbing ability.

IM0

D3PO wrote: »

in percentage terms the gaps aren't that big. They aren't going to contend for the GC so why would you waste energy on the climbs ? They do enough to make the time limit and save their legs for the flat stages.


Its fair to say the sprinters never do more than they need to in the high mountains so don't look at the time gaps and read it as the literal gap in climbing ability.

thats it. its all about horses for corses noob

Diarmuid

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I didn't say they wouldn't...I just find the gap between the top riders and the sprinters very hard to understand

It's analogous to wondering why Tyson Gay can't podium in the 10,000m

TinyExplosions

MPFG wrote: »

Froome ??

He's my main hope in Velogames, so I can't pick him... maybe Rolland...

Wishbone Ash

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I didn't say they wouldn't...I just find the gap between the top riders and the sprinters very hard to understand

It the same in most sports.

For example, in cricket, many of the world's best batsmen are crap bowlers and most of the top bowlers are mediocre batsmen. They are selected for their expertise at particular tasks. In saying that, many sports have "all rounders". Cycling is no different.

MPFG

TinyExplosions wrote: »

He's my main hope in Velogames, so I can't pick him... maybe Rolland...

Well Porte then

A_Sober_Paddy

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

It the same in most sports.

For example, in cricket, many of the world's best batsmen are crap bowlers and most of the top bowlers are mediocre batsmen. They are selected for their expertise at particular tasks. In saying that, many sports have "all rounders". Cycling is no different.

Not a massive cricket fan, and fairly new to cycling, I never understood cycling as team sport until last year so I just got to get a handle on a few things still

Brian?

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I didn't say they wouldn't...I just find the gap between the top riders and the sprinters very hard to understand

It's not actually that huge a gap. In the Tour the sprinters make zero effort to keep up, they form a bus/grupetto and spin home at their own pace. On the more mental stages they even point blank ignore the cut off time because they know the organisers won't kick out 20-30% of the riders for being over the limit.

If Sagan lost a pile of weight while keeping most of his power he could be a real contender in the mould of Kelly or Jalabert.

Brian?

TinyExplosions wrote: »

He's my main hope in Velogames, so I can't pick him... maybe Rolland...

Leave Rolland alone, he's in my team and I'm doing muck.

I think he has very little chance of winning tomorrow though. It's going to be Contador or Froome. Sky will not be able to control it tomorrow, fingers crossed.