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Iran - a complete change?

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    #32
    Jonny7
    Registered Users Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    Whatever is said publically, Putin does not trust Khamanei. Some countries are sanctioning Iran separately, including Japan, India and South Korea.

    The Iranians themselves do not trust Khamanei.

    As long as he keeps playing the nationalistic card to deflect attention from domestic issues - the longer it keeps going

    Rouhani is a stepping stone for both sides.


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    #33
    cyberhog
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    Jonny7 wrote: »

    Rouhani is a stepping stone...

    That is a significant climb down from your original prediction.
    Jonny7 wrote: »
    Looks like Iran is in for a big change..


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    #34
    BuilderPlumber
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭BuilderPlumber


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    Whatever is said publically, Putin does not trust Khamanei. Some countries are sanctioning Iran separately, including Japan, India and South Korea.

    The Iranians themselves do not trust Khamanei.

    As long as he keeps playing the nationalistic card to deflect attention from domestic issues - the longer it keeps going

    Rouhani is a stepping stone for both sides.

    Khamenei - whether one loves or hates him - is a very clever guy and the key to his success is his ability to pit rivals against each other and not allowing any one group to dominate.

    Under Khatami, the reformists were getting too strong so Khamenei then backed the Ahmadinejad camp. Sensing the threat now coming from non-clerical politicians and the military in politics, Khamenei once more turns to the reformists sensing a need to give more freedoms to the people, improve the economy and keep the clergy in power.

    NO ONE can trust Khamenei as Khamenei works for whatever situation is of benefit for himself. Very quickly, it will be Ahmadinejad who will be blamed for all the hardline, incompetent, confused policies that have threatened to collapse Iran's economy and system. Khamenei will no doubt 'punish' those he sees as recklessly destroying Iran to placate the people. Rouhani though will be reminded who is boss if he went against Khamenei though but like Khatami, I believe Rouhani knows his limits (whereas Ahmadinejad didn't and that lead to his 2011-2013 poor relationship with Khamenei).


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    #35
    Jonny7
    Registered Users Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    BuilderPlumber wrote: »
    Khamenei - whether one loves or hates him

    I live with an Iranian, they really hate the guy


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    #36
    BuilderPlumber
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭BuilderPlumber


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    I live with an Iranian, they really hate the guy

    I know Iranian people too and yes none of them have any time for Khamenei. Most Iranians I know are not overly religious and they abhor Khamenei's use and abuse of it to manipulate power and give himself a godlike status. Even religious Iranians do not like him and point to the fact that he was not an Ayatollah up until around 1988 when he was 'made one out of the blue' so as he could take over because the regime fell out with the original man designated to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini: Ayatollah Montazeri.

    But Khamenei is not a fool, that's for sure. He has ruled as president from 1981 to 1989 and as what is to all intents and purposes Shah since 1989 (where he is Ayatollah Khomeini and Mohammed Reza Pahlavi all rolled into one). He uses repression, moderation, bribes, threats, religion, bigotry, hardline truculence, compromise, nationalism, an image of being the champion of the poor, rewards, money and other things as he sees fit to stay in power.

    He also is a man who cannot ever afford to be out of power, as he has too many enemies within and outside of his own country. Even if Rouhani and the Iranian people's demand for real change means that Khamenei will remain as a figurehead of a moderate, largely diluted so-called 'Islamic regime', that would be better for him than being out of office!


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