Coral eclipse

UrbanSea

Mars looks ludicrously short at 11/2.Al Kazeem is plenty short at 6/4. Like Declaration of War at 4s

Gringo180

Cant have Camelot again but 10/1 is tempting to be honest considering The Fugue only finished half a lenght ahead of him at Ascot and she is 7/2. Couldn't be having DOW he didn't beat much in the Queen Anne but you could make a case for him improving with the step up in trip. Tough race but I think Al Kazeem will have too much for them.

Johner

I'd much rather Al Kazeem at 6/4 than Declaration Of War at 4/1. Has it even been announced the DOW is running?

UrbanSea

It was the manner of his victory that was so convincing. Sure Al Kazeem has beaten Camelot and nearly got beaten by Hanagan last time. Assuming the Fugue will improve from last time she has the best form in the race.


Regarding Mars, if this horse hadn't a big reputation he would be 100/1 and considered a pace maker. Half the price of Camelot is unbelievable

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

It was the manner of his victory that was so convincing. Sure Al Kazeem has beaten Camelot and nearly got beaten by Hanagan last time. Assuming the Fugue will improve from last time she has the best form in the race.


Regarding Mars, if this horse hadn't a big reputation he would be 100/1 and considered a pace maker. Half the price of Camelot is unbelievable

What do you think of the German raider? Take out his last race and he would be much shorter than 8/1. He ran a few cracking races in top company including getting to within 1L of Danedream and 7L of Frankel.

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

It was the manner of his victory that was so convincing. Sure Al Kazeem has beaten Camelot and nearly got beaten by Hanagan last time. Assuming the Fugue will improve from last time she has the best form in the race.

As overrated as Camelot is he's still a decent horse. A good ride by Hanagan nearly beat Al Kazeem but it was a good performance in the end. The Fugue was well beat by AK. His form with Thomas Chippendale & Ektihaam is good as well. I think he's a very solid fav at 6/4 but that's just my opinion.

UrbanSea

Think the form with them is solid group 2 form. Think its the worst renewal in a few years, shame Some Fairy or Farrh arent there, think So You Think would have easily brushed these aside if he was around

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think the form with them is solid group 2 form. Think its the worst renewal in a few years, shame Some Fairy or Farrh arent there, think So You Think would have easily brushed these aside if he was around

I know Aidan confessed to making a few training errors with SYT but have to say I always felt he was another overrated Coolmore purchase. He nearly lost as many races as he won under O'Brien, beating some average horses in some of his wins. Farhh could very easily have beaten him with more luck in the 2012 POW too.

Al Kazeem easily held The Fugue last time out, Camelot's not good enough, DOW was flattered by Animal Kingdom flopping at Royal Ascot LTO and while there's a chance he may improve for upping in trip, O'Brien had been saying he may have to drop him in trip if anything before Royal Ascot. Mars still has it to prove.

All in all I think Al Kazeem is the only top level Grp 1 horse in the field and a whopper bet at 6/4.

UrbanSea

He probably was over hyped, Coolmore were giving the impressions this fella was like Frankel or Sea the Stars. While he never reached that level he was a ten time group 1 winner, I have to laugh at those that don't rate him.

Also think Farrh should have been a clear second but no way was he beating So You Think. On a line through Snow Fairy he is a few pounds ahead of Farrh and Nathaniel.

Think it's a poor year and Al Kazeem may get away with it but he would be absolutely stuffed by Intello or the Motivator filly that won the Diane if he faces them this season

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think the form with them is solid group 2 form. Think its the worst renewal in a few years, shame Some Fairy or Farrh arent there, think So You Think would have easily brushed these aside if he was around

According to the handicapper, Al Kazeem (126 ) and Mukhadram ( 125 ) are already in the same league as Nathaniel, So You Think, Giants Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, Henry the Navigator etc.

I'll be glad to see the handicapper proven right, but I don't think he will be, the POW stakes result doesn't look in that league to me. I'll be on Pastorius who'll be suited by the stiff uphill finish at Sandown as will Al Kazeem who will probably win it handily enough.

And another thing, how is The Fugue so short in the betting?

UrbanSea

Think he is about five pounds wrong. Regarding her price, with Mars as low as 9/2 I think the whole world has gone mad. Thought she looked top class beating Twirl last year and ran really well against a filly I loved in Shareta

faoile@n

FYI Mars is getting 11 pounds from Al Kazeem.

He obviously has it all to prove but 10f is probably his optimum trip and worth a shot imo getting lumps of weight.

Mars dam is a half sister to Invincible Spirit and would be a valuable stallion prospect if he can win a few group 1's. The 10f division looks a shade weak this year in the absence of Farhh and Snow Fairy.

Camelot will be retired and more than likely won't run. This is the sole reason Mars is shorter in the betting.

UrbanSea

Yes but that's a weight for age allowance as opposed to a penalty.

He may be well bred but there are at least half a dozen equally well or better bred horses than him each year at Ballydoyle. At the end of the day he has won a maiden and finished unplaced in two group 1s, one of them being the weakest derby in years. This horse being 5/1 in an Eclipse shows how poor it is

Itziger

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yes but that's a weight for age allowance as opposed to a penalty.

He may be well bred but there are at least half a dozen equally well or better bred horses than him each year at Ballydoyle. At the end of the day he has won a maiden and finished unplaced in two group 1s, one of them being the weakest derby in years. This horse being 5/1 in an Eclipse shows how poor it is

But I thought that was last year!!!

UrbanSea

Ruler of the World got the lowest rating.for a Derby winner this century

Imhof Tank

I fancy Mars big time.

Got no run whatsoever at Epsom.

He finished 6 lengths closer to Dawn Approach at Ascot than he had been in the guineas. Cannot believe 1m is his optimum trip either so in that context the performance was even more promising.

Ballydoyle have a clear line through Camelot on what it will take to beat the fav as well.

UrbanSea

I totally forgot Mars ran at Ascot lol

Oscars Well.

Camelot is out of the Eclipse.

Johner

Don't rate Mars that high at all. He's beginning to become the Liverpool of horse racing with his supporters claiming that next year/race will be his time. :pac:

kfallon

According to Coolmore site Mars and DoW are 'probables', Camelot is on the easy list

TheMilkyPirate

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yes but that's a weight for age allowance as opposed to a penalty.

He may be well bred but there are at least half a dozen equally well or better bred horses than him each year at Ballydoyle. At the end of the day he has won a maiden and finished unplaced in two group 1s, one of them being the weakest derby in years. This horse being 5/1 in an Eclipse shows how poor it is

I don't care what rating he got but I will be genuinely shocked if this years derby turns out to be worse than last years.

Camelots derby was the equivelent of an average Group 3.

UrbanSea

Maybe. This year's was won.by a horse that Camelot would have lapped last season. Main Sequence should have won a Grand Prix de Paris. Astrology could have been top class over 10 but we will never know

Itziger

UrbanSea wrote: »

Maybe. This year's was won.by a horse that Camelot would have lapped last season. Main Sequence should have won a Grand Prix de Paris. Astrology could have been top class over 10 but we will never know

Camelot beat a could and a should. I see.

UrbanSea

Astrology didn't win the Derby because he didn't stay. Look at the manner in which he quickened during if. Ted Durcan cost Main Sequence his group one.

Since your comment added so much, do you think this was a great Derby this year? With its 120 winner and close field

Itziger

UrbanSea wrote: »

Astrology didn't win the Derby because he didn't stay. Look at the manner in which he quickened during if. Ted Durcan cost Main Sequence his group one.

Since your comment added so much, do you think this was a great Derby this year? With its 120 winner and close field

No, I don't think it was great. We still have 4 months of the flat season left though. Not something we can say about the multiple winners from last year's renewal. How many of those horses won any race after the Derby, besides Camelot in the Curragh equivalent? And with all due respect I don't think we can accept 'would've and should've'.

UrbanSea

]I wouldn't expect it to be. I know Camelot's was a poor derby and you made the point I've tried to make, this years could turn out to be even worse, we won't know until the form works out.

Just because Camelot ran in a poor Derby doesn't necessarily make him a poor Derby winner as some suggest

kfallon

Time to merge this thread with the 'Camelot' one? :pac:

Itziger

I think Camelot did everything that was asked of him till the Irish Derby and then he went downhill. Probably never the superstar we thought he was going to be but definitely better than his Leger or Arc run I think.

Gringo180

Should of never ran Camelot in that bog at the Curragh in the Derby bottomed the horse out.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Astrology didn't win the Derby because he didn't stay. Look at the manner in which he quickened during if. Ted Durcan cost Main Sequence his group one.

Since your comment added so much, do you think this was a great Derby this year? With its 120 winner and close field

It's possible Camelot mightn't have been good enough to win this years Derby, he beat an absolutely rubbish field in his own Derby. This year's Derby had much more quality in depth, Ruler Of The World and Libertarian's flops at the Curragh were not down to lack of ability, they were down to the horses not being right. The Epsom form was upheld by Epsom 3rd Galileo Rock finishing second in the Irish equivalent and by Epsom 6th Mars finishing 3rd in the St James Palace stakes, 1l closer to New Approach at Ascot than he could get to Ruler Of The World at Epsom.

The Irish Derby was a strange race. As for Main Sequence missing out on a Group one, just look at the rubbish that finished close up in that race.

jimjamcos

Heard that Camelot will be retired. Who know's if he will or not, but lad who told me works for Betfair and is usually on the money with the info he gets.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

It's possible Camelot mightn't have been good enough to win this years Derby, he beat an absolutely rubbish field in his own Derby. This year's Derby had much more quality in depth, Ruler Of The World and Libertarian's flops at the Curragh were not down to lack of ability, they were down to the horses not being right. The Epsom form was upheld by Epsom 3rd Galileo Rock finishing second in the Irish equivalent and by Epsom 6th Mars finishing 3rd in the St James Palace stakes, 1l closer to New Approach at Ascot than he could get to Ruler Of The World at Epsom.

The Irish Derby was a strange race. As for Main Sequence missing out on a Group one, just look at the rubbish that finished close up in that race.

New Approach hasnt run in almost 5 years.

Mars is effectively a maiden winner. If you could even call him that it was more of a trot in the AW where he had to run around a few trees. He doesnt have the pace for a mile at gp1 level. Nor the does he stay 1m4 at gp1 level IMO.
I expressed my doubts about ruler of the worlds form after the derby and im on the road to being proved right.

Gringo180

To be fair to Mars he was running on in the last 200 yards in The Derby so I reckon he stays the 12f quite well. Cant have him at that price tho as he only finished a neck ahead of Chopin and he was beaten well last time out at Ascot.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

New Approach hasnt run in almost 5 years.

Mars is effectively a maiden winner. If you could even call him that it was more of a trot in the AW where he had to run around a few trees. He doesnt have the pace for a mile at gp1 level. Nor the does he stay 1m4 at gp1 level IMO.
I expressed my doubts about ruler of the worlds form after the derby and im on the road to being proved right.

My bad, I keep making that same mistake:)


I'm not a huge fan of Mars, but credit where credit is due. He clearly stays 12f as his running on performance at Epsom shows, and he's also sharp enough for 8f as his third in a good quality St James palace stakes demonstrates. The horse to my eyes is a natural 10f horse, with the ability to place at the top level at 8f to 12f, but probably without the ability to win in a championship type race. I certainly wouldn't write him off as not being good or genuine at this stage. He's seemingly a progressive horse, as his 6l turnaround with Dawn Approach at Ascot from Newmarket would appear to indicate. He improved by 6lbs from the Guineas to the Derby and by another 3lbs since Epsom to post a 117 OR at Ascot. That's fairly rapid progress over a short period of time. He'd need to find another few pound to place in the Eclipse, but it would be no great surprise if he did finish 3rd in that race.

As for Ruler Of The World, on his Epsom form, he would have finished a close second in the Irish equivalent and so is not a really top horse on the form book. He didn't run to form at the Curragh and it's better to assess him on the performances of the horses who ran at Epsom and who have run since.

The 1st two at Epsom flopped so badly next time that their subsequent run was irrelevant to their Epsom performance.

The third and tenth finished 2nd and 3rd in the Gp 1 Irish Derby behind a horse who had been beaten by the Epsom 2nd on his last run.

The fourth flopped in second place at Ascot but not spectacularly in a GP 2 giving weight away.

The fifth hasn't run since.

The sixth and twelfth went on to finish 3rd and 1st in the Gp 1 St James Palace stakes.

The 7th ran a slightly below par race giving weight way at Ascot in a Gp 3.

The 8th won a Gp3 at the Curragh

The 9th hasn't run since.

The 11th Ocean Applause beaten by 50lb at Epsom ran to 72 in a handicap, which would coincide with a 120s rating for the Epsom winner.

Both the Epsom and Curragh races were strange races pacewise, too slow at Epsom and so fast at the Curragh that the horses finished strung out. Ruler Of The World looks finished as a top prospect for whatever reason I don't know, but his Epsom win wasn't from a poor field.

UrbanSea

Couldn't agree with you tryfix. Even if some of those horses go on and win some group 1s think it was a poor Derby, they'll probably all end up running against each other and don't think there are any genuine potential top class middle distance horses outside of the two French winners

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Couldn't agree with you tryfix. Even if some of those horses go on and win some group 1s think it was a poor Derby, they'll probably all end up running against each other and don't think there are any genuine potential top class middle distance horses outside of the two French winners

You may well be right. Compared to Camelot's field they're potentially not too bad, but we will find out on Saturday via Mars performance against the older horses what standard this year's 3yo classic crop are up to.

UrbanSea

The thing is i don't think the older crop is up to too much either maybe bar Farhh. Would like to see some of the Derby horses take on St Nic over a mild and a half, if he ran to form it would give a really good indication

UrbanFret

Mars is a similar type to oratorio so don't be at all surprised if he manages to win the eclipse.

Danny2580

I backed Declaration of War at Ascot on the basis that he was one of three horses in the field who was probably (at the time wasn't proven G1) Group 1 standard, so poor was the Queen Anne. With Animal Kingdom not running to form, and Elusive Kate likely not to have been 100% fit judging by Gosden's training patterns and the pre-race exchange market, he beat a couple of Group 2 horses in Aljamaaheer and Gregorian. He has displayed a tendency to hang under pressure on numerous occasions (Dundalk, and Ascot as he came through horses) and I don't think he'll get away with it in a stronger field as this is. In addition, USA bred horses (as in, with a U.S.A. suffix on the breeding) statistically outperform their market position at Royal Ascot, supposedly because the ground tends to be quick and the surface is sand based. Ascot's straight mile looked an ideal test for him and I'm really not sure Sandown's tight turning "switchback" track will suit as well.

I think bookmakers have this pretty much right, Al Kazeem's Royal Ascot effort was probably more meritorious than that of Mukhadram, whose sectionals suggested he might have gotten an easy lead (although it's hard to tell by times alone). A no bet race for me but if I had to have a punt, Mars seems to be gaining in experience with every race and he broke through the RPR120+ barrier required to get competitive in Group 1 company last time out and he might still be improving. He is declared in a hood which is an unknown, but Ryan Moore rides Sandown really well (45/228 an impressive 20% strike rate over the last five years from all his course rides) and who can forget his masterclass on Notnowcato in '07. He'd be the one for me and if it isn't Pricewise, you might get a bit better than the current 11/2 on the morning of the race, as a guaranteed price too.

Slattsy

DOW 5/2 joint fav with PP with AK. Serious punt on him it seems.
If AK was trained in Ballydoyle he's be a 4/5 shot today.

Hulk Hands

It's been said before, but surely Mars is about as bad an 11/2 shot as you'll ever see? That 5/2 Al Kazeem looks more than fair

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

It's been said before, but surely Mars is about as bad an 11/2 shot as you'll ever see? That 5/2 Al Kazeem looks more than fair

Being beaten 3l (unlucky in running) by Dawn Approach makes him what, a 10/1 shot?

Slattsy

His price is right.

Hulk Hands

Slattsy wrote: »

Being beaten 3l (unlucky in running) by Dawn Approach makes him what, a 10/1 shot?

Over a mile and it's still to be seen how good that form is (everyone just presumes DA is a machine, yet nothing has come out of the Guineas at all). This is over 10, and he looked poor in the Derby when having to go further. We have Al Kazeem who has taken the division by storm and is only half his price

It's even a joke that he's anywhere near the price of The Fugue, who ran a great comeback trial at Ascot. I'd have it closer to 10/1 in a 100% book alright. I think you'll be seeing something not far away from that on Betfair before the off, probably 9.0 or so

Hulk Hands

Slattsy wrote: »

His price is right.

If his price is right then why on earth are you backing him? Surely the only time you only back when you think the price is wrong (too big)

Slattsy

But if no one rates Camelot(chances are he hasnt been at his best this year anyway) then is the AK form suspect?
Is just beating Mukhadram lto great form? Look at Mukhadrams form prior to Ascot....

Tricky race.

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If his price is right then why on earth are you backing him? Surely the only time you only back when you think the price is wrong (too big)

Because i believe its about right, quite simple really.

Hulk Hands

Slattsy wrote: »

Because i believe its about right, quite simple really.

You think that 11/2 is the right price? So presumably if a bookie hired you for the day and asked you to price the race, you'd have Mars at 11/2 and be happy to lay that? Yet as a punter your happy to back it? I don't understand

If you think 11/2 is correct then there's no positive margin for you. Maybe you're happy with that, and just like to bet. Fair enough if so

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You think that 11/2 is the right price? So presumably if a bookie hired you for the day and asked you to price the race, you'd have Mars at 11/2 and be happy to lay that? Yet as a punter your happy to back it? I don't understand

If you think 11/2 is correct then there's no positive margin for you. Maybe you're happy with that, and just like to bet. Fair enough if so

I believe current price is about right yes, give or take half a point here or there. I can see it drifting and i have not taken the 11/2 at the moment because of this. If i fall asleep and wake up a minute before the off and he's 4/1 or 7/2 then i wont back it

I dont believe he should be a 10/1 shot, no way.

I dont give a **** about margins when its only a point or so either side of a price :cool:

Johner

Where are the Al Kazeem doubters now

Slattsy

Here