July 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for July, the 1981-2010 average was 15.2 C.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question ... predict the hours of sunshine at Belmullet on Saturday, 13th of July, range of answers 0.0 to 15.0

As always, enter using the form or on this thread. Same penalties as in previous months, deadline is 0300h Tuesday 2nd of July.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

cherryghost

Such a dope, I've missed the last 2 months due to life commitments

Done

snowstreams

Done.

200motels

Done

Strasser

Done

Bsal

Done.

Jpmarn

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done and in time this month :-)

John mac

Done..

talkabout

Done

dasa29

Done

Keith96

Done

Harps

Done

DOCARCH

Done

jd

Done

Rikand

done

Tae laidir

Done

Speak Now

Done.

homolumo

done

mickger844posts

done

lostinashford

Done

traecy1

Done

delw

Done

Joe Public

Done

okla

Done

nilhg

Just about squeezed in before the deadline

Tae laidir

nilhg wrote: »

Just about squeezed in before the deadline

Deadline not until 3am.
I'm sure there are plenty of Night Owls still to post!

Quickelles

done..late again as usual

dacogawa

Done (late) apologies!

M.T. Cranium

July forecast entries
___________________________


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ BEL-13th
......................................................................................................
==============================================

Jpmarn ______________17.0 _ 31.0 _ 7.8 _ 076 _ 152 _10.5
mickger844posts ______16.9 _ 28.8 _ 6.1 _ 070 _ 129 _ 8.0
lostinashford _________ 16.7 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 089 _ 112 _10.3
nilhg _______________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 5.9 _ 080 _ 112 _ 4.5
M.T. Cranium _________16.2 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 080 _ 130 _10.1
keith96 _____________ 16.1 _ 26.0 _ 6.0 _ 080 _ 130 _10.5
harps _______________16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.8 _ 070 _ 120 _ 9.0
cherryghost __________16.0 _ 25.5 _ 8.0 _ 090 _ 120 _ 5.0
Tae laidir ____________16.0 _ 28.3 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 121 _ 4.4
seafields ____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 050 _ 140 _ 9.0
dacogawa (-15) ______ 16.0 _ 29.2 _ 7.0 _ 090 _ 105 _ 8.2
okla ________________16.0 _ 27.2 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 7.9
Joe Public ___________ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 5.9 _ 079 _ 119 _ 8.5
DOCARCH ___________ 15.9 _ 30.3 _ 5.2 _ 090 _ 108 _ 6.8
jd __________________15.9 _ 28.8 _ 8.9 _ 090 _ 110 _10.4
Rickylovesuall ________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 5.5 _ 080 _ 130 _12.5
kindredspirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.2 _ 6.0 _ 084 _ 126 _ 8.0

Con Sensus __________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 5.9 _ 088 _ 112 _ 8.5

traecy.1 _____________15.8 _ 28.3 _ 6.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 7.5
200motels ___________ 15.7 _ 29.8 _10.2 _ 060 _ 135 _12.6
bsal ________________ 15.7 _ 24.1 _ 6.6 _ 091 _ 095 _ 9.5
waterways (-5) _______ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.1 _ 100 _ 120 _11.0
snowstreams _________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 088 _ 110 _ 8.5
pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 4.8 _ 089 _ 110 _ 7.1
talkabout ____________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 6.8 _ 090 _ 110 _ 7.5
rameire _____________ 15.5 _ 27.6 _ 3.7 _ 090 _ 107 _12.2
strasser _____________ 15.4 _ 25.5 _ 5.1 _ 090 _ 105 _ 9.5
Jerry Seinfeld _________15.4 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 125 _ 9.0
homolumo ___________ 15.2 _ 27.1 _ 5.0 _ 089 _ 114 _11.0
Rocky Bay ___________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _10.0 _ 100 _ 075 _ 5.0
john mac ____________ 14.8 _ 26.5 _ 7.1 _ 095 _ 104 _ 9.0
delw ________________14.3 _ 25.5 _ 8.0 _ 090 _ 097 _ 6.0
quickelles (-5)_________14.2 _ 25.5 _ 7.0 _ 130 _ 090 _ 5.0
dasa29 ______________13.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 120 _10.0
H2UMrsRobinson ______ 12.4 _ 25.3 _ 7.4 _ 088 _ 088 _ 7.0
_______________________________________________________

34 forecasts, Con Sensus (that thorn in our sides) is the mean of 17th and 18th ranked of each category. A rather warm, sunny and dry month is the general theme with a few outliers and some going quite towards the 2006 benchmark.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was already at 16.5 after Tuesday and probably near 17.0 after today. Taking models at face value it could rise as high as 17.4 by the weekend then drop gradually back to the high 16s before possibly rising again so those near the top of our forecast table appear to be in good shape.

The MAX is at least 29.5 (9th, Mountdillon) if that wasn't broken today.

The MIN may not have happened yet so whatever it is may not matter.

Rainfall has been on the order of 20-30 per cent so far and sunshine which started out rather low for a few days has rapidly increased to about 120% or more.

waterways

Saw the 29.5°C at Mt Dillon too. Congrats M.T.!

rameire

just as a reference for the bonus question,
Belmullet had 12.4 hours of sun yesterday 9th.

Quickelles

This good weather is really ruining my score.

MT - could I withdraw (to avoid embarrassment) ?

Rikand

rameire wrote: »

just as a reference for the bonus question,
Belmullet had 12.4 hours of sun yesterday 9th.

Going to be a write off on Saturday. The only bit of cloud coming for the rest of the month is coming on Saturday and it's hitting the north west aswell

M.T. Cranium

The lowest temperature I found (and this may not be it) so far is 7.9 C recorded on the 6th at Moorepark. Even today (meaning Thursday actually I guess it's Friday now) it would be tough to predict how much sunshine might occur on Saturday in Belmullet, would currently expect 6-8 hours rather than whatever I guessed back in June.

Con Sensus, by the way, could get pushed down quite a long way this month, the way the guesses line up even the mercy rule won't help the bottom half of the field and of course Con Sensus is at the top of the bottom half of the field as always. If it warmed up more and reached 17.5 and the extreme min did not change, then Con Sensus would have 7 points for the first three categories and whatever could be gleaned from the rest, which could be around 15/35. The problem is that quite a few of us need to take a hit on some part of our forecast to push Con Sensus off the cliff so we'll all go together I guess, with one or two exceptions).

I don't feel that safe with the 29.5 although the mercy rule pretty much guarantees some points there no matter how high the next warm spell drives the mercury up.

pauldry

I'm in line for a total of 15 points this month but love droughts so don't care, your right mt as always, 29.5 won't last

Your forecasts were spot on and met eireann don't believe in long range forecasts all boardies do

rameire

1.2
Im thinking I put the decimal point in the wrong place for my entry.
I can't believe it was only 1.2 sunshine hours.

Tae laidir

rameire wrote: »

1.2
Im thinking I put the decimal point in the wrong place for my entry.
I can't believe it was only 1.2 sunshine hours.

Sometimes, us Eastcoasters forget the diference in weather over such a short distance on the West Coast.
I will never forget my summer holidays in Achill, though it was almost 40 years ago!

M.T. Cranium

Well, rather ironic that I managed to pick the one really cloudy day in this warm spell for the bonus question, and the max of 10 points will go to Tae laidir (4.4h), nilhg (4.5h) and both Rocky Bay and Quickelles at 5.0 hours. Will score in groups of four then three down to the end of the table on this one.

Meanwhile, the max at Oak Park on the 12th remains shrouded in mystery which means that we'll have to wait to see if it broke the 29.5 reading in place, there was an hourly of 30 reported so it likely did. I would estimate that the IMT is now around 17.4 although some missing data prevents an exact calculation. The next week will maintain it at that level or even raise it slightly. Precip is now down around 20% from those showers on the 2nd -3rd, and sunshine must be pushing up well above 150%.

If these trends continue, Jpmarn will have a score well into the 80s and I will have less work than usual scoring the table because usually I have to move all the forecasts around in the scoring, this time they may just line up the way they are now with a bit of juggling to do. Would say that seafields and 200motels came closest to anticipating the extreme nature of the drought if these numbers hold.

Quickelles

And that's about the only thing I'll have fluked in this month's contest!

Tae laidir

:eek: Looks like our Annual Leader Dasa29 is going to have a stinker.
I hope Harps or I can do enough, else I fear you-know-who will be in the lead!

M.T. Cranium

Unless the end of the month screws up the rainfall, you (Tae laidir) are more or less guaranteed ten or fifteen points more than Con Sensus, harps is running closer because of a lower min forecast (but if he gets that to go, he's in that position).

Therefore I am afraid you are correct, Con may edge ahead of everyone despite a really low score. I'm saying this without looking up the exact numbers, some people are going to beat Con by 40-50 points at least but they are probably more than that amount behind.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now confirmed to be 17.6 C after 14 days, and the max remains 29.5 as Oak Park tied that on 12th.

Harps

Danno's station in Durrow had a max of 30.1C, not a synop station but it should be mentioned in the Monthly Bulletin

M.T. Cranium

I'm not sure if Harps is aware, but Met-E publish a "Monthly Summary" right after the month ends, and a more detailed "Monthly Bulletin" months later.

Some or all of you likely knew this, but every day there are reports from about twenty stations around Ireland and these form the basis for our contest.

I rarely look at the later published Summaries and I don't even know offhand what stations are reviewed in addition to these primary stations. Maybe I should find out. But to score the contest, I have to go with what's available right after the month ends.

Here again, I don't know if Harps meant much by his comment and I'm not looking at it as a complaint or anything like that. From my point of view, the more stations consulted, the better -- but of course many of us predict our numbers on the basis of what we know about the system used, if I thought Danno's station would be in the mix (and other inland sites) I would have added a degree to my prediction probably and bet some others would too.

Meanwhile anyone higher than the current 29.5 has another shot at it this weekend into early next week. The IMT has probably edged down to about 17.4 as of today (it was 17.5 through Monday), rainfall must be less than 20% and sunshine above all our predictions at 170%.

Harps

Think you took the comment the wrong way, certainly didn't mean it as a complaint or anything like that!

Think I'm getting the Bulletin and Summary mixed up, I rarely read the brief summaries at the end of the month so wasn't aware that only the synop stations are included. The Durrow station is a climatological station so it'll probably be mentioned once the Bulletin is published

As we were then, 29.5C max!

M.T. Cranium

Sorry, I didn't take it badly at all, I was a bit distracted as I posted because it was on the way to the forecast post that I make each morning, and I just couldn't find the words that matched what I was meaning to say, which were more or less what you just said about the Bulletin and Summary.

I think there's a point to be made for one or two additional daily reporting Met-E stations in the inland southeast and perhaps somewhere closer to Waterford too. However, I guess budgetary constraints prevent that. Ironically, my budget of zero did not constrain me from making a fairly accurate long-range forecast, perhaps the answer is to cut budgets to zero in all cases.

Quickelles

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ironically, my budget of zero did not constrain me from making a fairly accurate long-range forecast, perhaps the answer is to cut budgets to zero in all cases.

MT. They'll be sticking pins into rag dolls with your image in ME!

M.T. Cranium

I wouldn't expect such boorish Canadian behaviour in a civilized country like yours.

How did you know about the voodoo dolls, I thought that was a state secret?

Danno

Harps wrote: »

Think you took the comment the wrong way, certainly didn't mean it as a complaint or anything like that!

Think I'm getting the Bulletin and Summary mixed up, I rarely read the brief summaries at the end of the month so wasn't aware that only the synop stations are included. The Durrow station is a climatological station so it'll probably be mentioned once the Bulletin is published

As we were then, 29.5C max!

Now and again climatological stations will get a brief reference in the Monthly Summary which is produced on the first Monday (Tuesday where BH happens) of the following month.

I am unaware of nearby stations (Fethard-in-Tipperary, Athy, Littleton, Derrygreenagh, Lullymore and Edenderry) beating 30.1c as of today, however they might indeed have recorded higher and may not come out of the woodwork until near Christmas when the Monthly Bulletin is produced.

Stations: http://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/climap.asp