July 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for July, the 1981-2010 average was 15.2 C.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question ... predict the hours of sunshine at Belmullet on Saturday, 13th of July, range of answers 0.0 to 15.0

As always, enter using the form or on this thread. Same penalties as in previous months, deadline is 0300h Tuesday 2nd of July.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

cherryghost

Such a dope, I've missed the last 2 months due to life commitments

Done

snowstreams

Done.

200motels

Done

Strasser

Done

Bsal

Done.

Jpmarn

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done and in time this month :-)

John mac

Done..

talkabout

Done

dasa29

Done

Keith96

Done

Harps

Done

DOCARCH

Done

jd

Done

Rikand

done

Tae laidir

Done

Speak Now

Done.

homolumo

done

mickger844posts

done

lostinashford

Done

traecy1

Done

delw

Done

Joe Public

Done

okla

Done

nilhg

Just about squeezed in before the deadline

Tae laidir

nilhg wrote: »

Just about squeezed in before the deadline

Deadline not until 3am.
I'm sure there are plenty of Night Owls still to post!

Quickelles

done..late again as usual

dacogawa

Done (late) apologies!

M.T. Cranium

July forecast entries
___________________________


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ BEL-13th
......................................................................................................
==============================================

Jpmarn ______________17.0 _ 31.0 _ 7.8 _ 076 _ 152 _10.5
mickger844posts ______16.9 _ 28.8 _ 6.1 _ 070 _ 129 _ 8.0
lostinashford _________ 16.7 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 089 _ 112 _10.3
nilhg _______________ 16.2 _ 30.1 _ 5.9 _ 080 _ 112 _ 4.5
M.T. Cranium _________16.2 _ 29.5 _ 4.5 _ 080 _ 130 _10.1
keith96 _____________ 16.1 _ 26.0 _ 6.0 _ 080 _ 130 _10.5
harps _______________16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.8 _ 070 _ 120 _ 9.0
cherryghost __________16.0 _ 25.5 _ 8.0 _ 090 _ 120 _ 5.0
Tae laidir ____________16.0 _ 28.3 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 121 _ 4.4
seafields ____________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 050 _ 140 _ 9.0
dacogawa (-15) ______ 16.0 _ 29.2 _ 7.0 _ 090 _ 105 _ 8.2
okla ________________16.0 _ 27.2 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 7.9
Joe Public ___________ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 5.9 _ 079 _ 119 _ 8.5
DOCARCH ___________ 15.9 _ 30.3 _ 5.2 _ 090 _ 108 _ 6.8
jd __________________15.9 _ 28.8 _ 8.9 _ 090 _ 110 _10.4
Rickylovesuall ________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 5.5 _ 080 _ 130 _12.5
kindredspirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.2 _ 6.0 _ 084 _ 126 _ 8.0

Con Sensus __________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 5.9 _ 088 _ 112 _ 8.5

traecy.1 _____________15.8 _ 28.3 _ 6.5 _ 085 _ 110 _ 7.5
200motels ___________ 15.7 _ 29.8 _10.2 _ 060 _ 135 _12.6
bsal ________________ 15.7 _ 24.1 _ 6.6 _ 091 _ 095 _ 9.5
waterways (-5) _______ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.1 _ 100 _ 120 _11.0
snowstreams _________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 088 _ 110 _ 8.5
pauldry ______________15.5 _ 26.1 _ 4.8 _ 089 _ 110 _ 7.1
talkabout ____________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 6.8 _ 090 _ 110 _ 7.5
rameire _____________ 15.5 _ 27.6 _ 3.7 _ 090 _ 107 _12.2
strasser _____________ 15.4 _ 25.5 _ 5.1 _ 090 _ 105 _ 9.5
Jerry Seinfeld _________15.4 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 125 _ 9.0
homolumo ___________ 15.2 _ 27.1 _ 5.0 _ 089 _ 114 _11.0
Rocky Bay ___________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _10.0 _ 100 _ 075 _ 5.0
john mac ____________ 14.8 _ 26.5 _ 7.1 _ 095 _ 104 _ 9.0
delw ________________14.3 _ 25.5 _ 8.0 _ 090 _ 097 _ 6.0
quickelles (-5)_________14.2 _ 25.5 _ 7.0 _ 130 _ 090 _ 5.0
dasa29 ______________13.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 120 _10.0
H2UMrsRobinson ______ 12.4 _ 25.3 _ 7.4 _ 088 _ 088 _ 7.0
_______________________________________________________

34 forecasts, Con Sensus (that thorn in our sides) is the mean of 17th and 18th ranked of each category. A rather warm, sunny and dry month is the general theme with a few outliers and some going quite towards the 2006 benchmark.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was already at 16.5 after Tuesday and probably near 17.0 after today. Taking models at face value it could rise as high as 17.4 by the weekend then drop gradually back to the high 16s before possibly rising again so those near the top of our forecast table appear to be in good shape.

The MAX is at least 29.5 (9th, Mountdillon) if that wasn't broken today.

The MIN may not have happened yet so whatever it is may not matter.

Rainfall has been on the order of 20-30 per cent so far and sunshine which started out rather low for a few days has rapidly increased to about 120% or more.