Ascot Day 4

Overthelast

Camanology ew main bet for me tomorrow. Murtagh gave him a good word earlier in the week.

Few others I'm looking at for a L15 Joyeuse, Pavlosh, Two for Two & Leading Light.

rossom

I think 7/2 looks a great price for Joyeuse in the opener. Looked very classy when winning on debut and will definitely have learned bundles as she was green.

carmanard

Four horses that Rossom should avoid in order to keep the run of tipping form going: Wedding Ring in the opener, Siyenica in the coronation, sheikhzayedroad in the 4.25 and Ralston Road in the queens vase. Mainly because they're sticking out to me as e/w value, which most likely means they won't even finish in the same parish as the winners

Slattsy

Serious bet on Sandiva at 11/4 in the first. Possibly my only bet of the day.

The form of her win in Naas recently received a huge boost when the third horse home that day Fig Roll ran a huge race here on Wednesday behind the impressive Rizeena in the Group 2 Queen Mary to be beaten 3 lengths. Sandiva easily beat Fig Roll over 6 lengths at Naas and doesnt need to improve to win this.

Im dee-****ing-lighted Joyeuse takes her chance here as she's priced up as being related to Frankel and is making the price on Sandiva decent for me. Although she won well enough in a poxy Lingfield maiden, the beaten horses have all let that form down since and this is a different ball game for her

As long as the ground stays good to firm Sandiva carries max confidence from me.

(Taking on Rossom here)
Oooooooooooooh

luckyeye

From 28/May:

nevis7 wrote: »

to save you from doing in a packet tonight. a long time friend bill from east cork owns this mare and has her leased out to jimmy's syndicate. the mare was covered by winged love ten days ago and has missed a fair bit of training as a result. in the circumstances don't be surprised to see her finish out with the washing tonight. the plan of action is that her last run will be in a black type mares hurdle at the maze in I think 6 weeks, when she will be at the end of the timeframe when she is allowed to run in foal, and in theory the pregnancy hormones give her an advantage at that advanced stage, after that run she is retired and sent back to cork.

I know not Ascot but didn't want to start a new tread for one horse...

Twin Plan out tomorrow in the first (17:30) at Down Royal - no prices up yet.

CheltenhamJ

Pavlosk supplemented by Stoute for the Coronation - take the hint !!

rossom

Slattsy wrote: »

Serious bet on Sandiva at 11/4 in the first. Possibly my only bet of the day.

The form of her win in Naas recently received a huge boost when the third horse home that day Fig Roll ran a huge race here on Wednesday behind the impressive Rizeena in the Group 2 Queen Mary to be beaten 3 lengths. Sandiva easily beat Fig Roll over 6 lengths at Naas and doesnt need to improve to win this.

Im dee-****ing-lighted Joyeuse takes her chance here as she's priced up as being related to Frankel and is making the price on Sandiva decent for me. Although she won well enough in a poxy Lingfield maiden, the beaten horses have all let that form down since and this is a different ball game for her

As long as the ground stays good to firm Sandiva carries max confidence from me.

(Taking on Rossom here)
Oooooooooooooh

Its all about form vs potential with our 2.

billy2012

rossom wrote: »

I think 7/2 looks a great price for Joyeuse in the opener. Looked very classy when winning on debut and will definitely have learned bundles as she was green.

Have to agree.

She looked the business once she was told to go win the race. Once she has improved from that race which she should have then I think she has a great chance.

She also got me out of a hole when winning last time and have been waiting for her to run again.

I loved Frankel.

I loved Cecil.

I just can't not bet on this horse.

jimjamcos

Anyone wanna guess what weather/ground will be like tomorrow? Have backed Big Break and would go in again if I thought there'd be some rain.

3ndahalfof6

if all are running,

2:30 MIDNITE ANGEL 12/1

3:05 HAVANA BEAT 16/1

3:45 PURR ALONG 25/1

4:25 GENZY 16/1

5:00 FEEL LIKE DANCING 25/1 and NARU 40/1

5:35 JOE PACKET 20/1

so this means no favs will win tomorrow, EW singles and super accum, so I can buy the yacht.

Inspector Coptoor

Overthelast wrote: »

Camanology ew main bet for me tomorrow. Murtagh gave him a good word earlier in the week.

Few others I'm looking at for an L15 Joyeuse, Pavlosh, Two for Two & Leading Light.

Yeah, Campanology for me in this one too, heard it tipped up and a friend texted me about it too.

Got it at 22s on Betfair earlier, currently 18s

mailburner

sandiva my main bet also
the class act in the first

a few quid on albasharah and disclamer also

rossom

The Joyeuse/Sandiva RFC looks like it could be a very likely scenario.

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

Serious bet on Sandiva

(Taking on Rossom here)
Oooooooooooooh

Road to ruin. See Ascot Day 3

SM746

Just the one bet tomorrow for me so far.
2pt Win Forgotten Voice, 14/1
Johnny Murtagh / Nicky Henderson combination.
Will look more closely at the other cards once more to see if I fancy anything else.

SM746

Just the one bet tomorrow for me so far.
2pt Win Forgotten Voice, 14/1
Johnny Murtagh / Nicky Henderson combination.
Will look more closely at the other cards once more to see if I fancy anything else.

MoscowFlyer

Princess Noor @ 25/1

This will be my selection in the opener. Was impressed with her debut at Kempton a few weeks back. Showed a nice turn of foot and if she can transfer that onto the turf I like her to run a big race. Not to mention that Roger Varion is in great form and he really liked her that day as well. Def think this one is overpriced.

tryfix

Fascinating race the Albany, worth having a nibble at Mars full sister Wonderfully @ 9/1 for the Ryan Moore/A O'Brien team

UrbanSea

Wouldn't say its extremely likely at all, wide open field of unexposed fillies. Kiyoushi would be my idea of an each way bet

Pinesky

Ascot currently on the edge of heavy downpours looks like they wont escape.
Might be worth waiting to see if any going change.

Letyourselfgo

Sandiva for me as well but going against rossom has proved expensive this week, in particular when I went with king olav.

tryfix

Hey Urban, fancy Fantastic Moon to bounce back?

Gringo180

If the rain comes tomorrow I would be all over Snow Queen I think she is screaming out for a bit of ease in the ground but if it stays good/firm ill side with Pavlosk.

madmoose

Big breaks reappearance in the irish guineas when 4th from a bad draw was eyecatching. Currently 6/1.

Letyourselfgo

I'm hoping that even with a bit of rain the ground will go no worse than good.
On that note has anyone got any thoughts regarding Purr Along in the 3:45, should not having a prep run be an issue?

jimjamcos

Struggling to split Joyeuse and Sandiva tbh but visually the former's debut was extremely impressive (settled well and won with minimal effort) and the fact that Cecil was aiming her towards the Albany straight after that race spoke volumes about how highly they rate her. Also, if in doubt, follow Rossom!

My main bet tomorrow is Big Break in the Coronation. I just think this filly is a proper, proper horse. She was thoroughly impressive in her runs late last season (having an albeit-backwards Magician behind her on one occasion) and as everyone knows Weld has struggled to get her ready this season. I've heard from a few places that they expected her to win at the Curragh and while she never really looked like winning the Irish 1000, she was badly drawn and had a bit of a bumping match as a result. She travelled through the race well and maybe the lack of a run just caught her out at the finish. She was still less than 2l behind the winner Just The Judge and with that filly drawn 17 tomorrow I think a more match-fit Big Break can get a better early position and reverse the form. Other fancied rivals are also worse drawn: Sky Lantern (16) and Pavlosk (12).

Obviously a bit of rain would be nice to see for Big Break but if Weld's happy to run her, I see her going very close. 6/1 with BetVictor (stake back in free bet if Hughes and Sky Lantern finish in frame)


Third and final bet will be Jamesie in the 5.35 Buckingham Palace. An annoying horse to follow as often makes things difficult for himself (2 runs back at Ascot being an example, when he was slow into stride before finishing an eye-catching 7th). Was 2nd in this race last year to Eton Forever so willing to give him one last chance on the basis that the ground should suit and he has some course form. Small each-way at 18-1 with BetVictor

longshotvalue

5:35 Ascot

Jamesie is one that has been knocking on the door in these types of races for the last year or so, and ran an eye-catching race at Ascot last time out when not getting much of a run and finishing well in 7th. I kind of expected him to be one of the favourite’s here and if it does rain tomorrow he certainly won’t be inconvenienced by that. 22/1 with Betfair looks maybe 5-6 points to big.


1 Point win 23 Betfair

I’m also going with a couple of min bets at big prices here. Anderigo has been running well this year and although a lot of his form in at York I don’t think he is a 50/1 shot so I’ll be having a min bet at 50 on Betfair. In Addition I’ve been thinking for a while now that Es Que Love might just pop up in one of these at some stage and he gave an eye-catching run earlier this week in the hunt cup when 3rd of the bigger group on the near side. He is also available at 50 onn Betfair and should be better suited by this 7 furlong trip.


½ Point win each Anderigo & Es Que Love both 50 on betfair

Paully D

My biggest bet of the festival on Leading Light tomorrow in the 17:00. I'm on at 9/4.

shy-tall-knight

Surprised nobody has mentioned Viztoria in the Coronation. Bit of rain will also be a big plus for her. Only negative is that she was pulled from the Irish Guineas after coughing but at least she has had that one run into her this season. Looks the value at 11/1.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Hey Urban, fancy Fantastic Moon to bounce back?

I had been really looking forward to seeing him over this trip but he ran so poorly at Sandown i just couldn't fancy him. Fancy Battle of Marengo to get done and think it'll be Hillstar who does it

dirkmeister

What's the story with Battle of Marengo can anyone tell me?

By the amount of times he's been mentioned here it looks like nobody is going to go near him.

I would have thought he would have way too much for these horses.

Gringo180

dirkmeister wrote: »

What's the story with Battle of Marengo can anyone tell me?

By the amount of times he's been mentioned here it looks like nobody is going to go near him.

I would have thought he would have way too much for these horses.

Your correct he should do and I think he is a better horse than his showing in the Derby where I thought he got a poor ride. He should be winning this race with a bit in hand but I will be backing each way in this race for a bit of value, I think T'hair could run very well.

jimjamcos

dirkmeister wrote: »

What's the story with Battle of Marengo can anyone tell me?

By the amount of times he's been mentioned here it looks like nobody is going to go near him.

I would have thought he would have way too much for these horses.

He'll probably win but as odds-on shots go, I wouldn't consider him a safe way to buy money. Think he's one-paced and while it's hard to see who'll beat him, I've a feeling he wont do it as easily as his odds suggest he should.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I had been really looking forward to seeing him over this trip but he ran so poorly at Sandown i just couldn't fancy him. Fancy Battle of Marengo to get done and think it'll be Hillstar who does it

BOM should be well clear of these, but too short in price. I know Ascot is a burial ground for horses who've run well in the Derby and flopped here, but they were often soft types without a lot of real solid group form in the bag. Whereas, BOM has proven himself capable of winning two GP3s, a Gp2 and a listed race. The 3lb he has to give away is a worry. I'd be happy enough to have a small bet on Fantastic Moon in case BOM flops, that Sandown Classic Trial was a strange but good race and Fantastic Moon has been well minded since. Hillstar has an awful lot to find.

Overthelast

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Surprised nobody has mentioned Viztoria in the Coronation. Bit of rain will also be a big plus for her. Only negative is that she was pulled from the Irish Guineas after coughing but at least she has had that one run into her this season. Looks the value at 11/1.

Fell in love with her when she won at the curragh early last season. Disappointed when they went for black type win in France so I cast her aside after. Just the judge is a worthy fav with her profile but I am not betting in that race.

Overthelast

To nail it, I dont think vitzoria will be placed on the form so far.

rockycelt

Big break main bet if the day for me tomorrow.
6/1 is smashing each way price on her.

Highland Colori is a horse I utterly adore. As genuine as the come. Pleased Buick still riding with Probert out. I feel it's a big ask of him though having gone up 7lb for goog win LTO.
Can't not back him though, owes me nothing.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

BOM should be well clear of these, but too short in price. I know Ascot is a burial ground for horses who've run well in the Derby and flopped here, but they were often soft types without a lot of real solid group form in the bag. Whereas, BOM has proven himself capable of winning two GP3s, a Gp2 and a listed race. The 3lb he has to give away is a worry. I'd be happy enough to have a small bet on Fantastic Moon in case BOM flops, that Sandown Classic Trial was a strange but good race and Fantastic Moon has been well minded since. Hillstar has an awful lot to find.

I know he has a lot to find but think he should have won last time but didn't settle this step up should suit. Poor enough year for Danehill Dancer can hopefully change tomorrow, looking forward to seeing Sea Siren too

rossom

Already mentioned it on another thread but I highly recommend taking the 25/1 available about Maarek for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes with Skybet NRNB for the weekend. Rain is forecast and if it comes up soft he is going to have an enormous chance in what looks a very weak race given that its a Grade 1 and he won't run unless there is some juice in the ground. Although disappointing when a comprehensively beaten 2nd at the weekend, this doesn't concern me in the slightest as he finished 2nd behind Katla (a horse who he is much better than) 6 days before his Group 2 success last year - the same number of days since his recent outing come Saturday. He'll go off a single figure on the day if it comes up soft/heavy and if it does I think he has got an absolutely massive chance of winning.

rossom

Write ups later.

3.45 Ascot Pavlosk 8/1
5.35 Ascot Jack's Revenge 20/1
8.05 Newmarket Ducal 14/1

longshotvalue

rossom wrote: »

Already mentioned it on another thread but I highly recommend taking the 25/1 available about Maarek for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes with Skybet NRNB for the weekend. Rain is forecast and if it comes up soft he is going to have an enormous chance in what looks a very weak race given that its a Grade 1 and he won't run unless there is some juice in the ground. Although disappointing when a comprehensively beaten 2nd at the weekend, this doesn't concern me in the slightest as he finished 2nd behind Katla (a horse who he is much better than) 6 days before his Group 2 success last year - the same number of days since his recent outing come Saturday. He'll go off a single figure on the day if it comes up soft/heavy and if it does I think he has got an absolutely massive chance of winning.

I have to agree big time.. Minute it rains his chance is going up significantly..

Slattsy

Ground still good to firm, but they watered yesterday evening to take the sting out of the ground.

Big Break must be a doubt now.

Ray Mond

Wat do You's think of sky lanterns chances.? Always liked that horse but Hughes and Hannon haven't won much this week

Letyourselfgo

Ascot
2:30 - Sandiva - win 11/4
3:05 - Thair - e/w 14/1
3:45 - Pavlosk 7/1, Purr Along 33/1 both e/w

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground still good to firm, but they watered yesterday evening to take the sting out of the ground.

Big Break must be a doubt now.

I'm not so sure Weld has a proper excuse (unlike with ROP yesterday) to pull Big Break today, regardless of it remaining GF. He was saying that she wanted fast ground after her final run last season and the Irish 1000 was run on GF. She only has a couple of lengths to make up on the favourite from that run with the 4mm of water insuring that ground is safe. Maybe Prince Khalid won't mind him pulling her as he's another runner in race but it was clear for Gosdens post-race comments regarding his query to pull Remote yesterday that the when Abdullah turns up for his big day out, he wants them running.

Also, BB seems very popular in the market as a clear 2nd fav now. There was very little money for ROP yesterday from what I seen.

Slattsy

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'm not so sure Weld has a proper excuse (unlike with ROP yesterday) to pull Big Break today, regardless of it remaining GF. He was saying that she wanted fast ground after her final run last season and the Irish 1000 was run on GF. She only has a couple of lengths to make up on the favourite from that run with the 4mm of water insuring that ground is safe. Maybe Prince Khalid won't mind him pulling her as he's another runner in race but it was clear for Gosdens post-race comments regarding his query to pull Remote yesterday that the when Abdullah turns up for his big day out, he wants them running.

Also, BB seems very popular in the market as a clear 2nd fav now. There was very little money for ROP yesterday from what I seen.

You could be right, Weld is sometimes too cautious with his horses.

kpcsully

Any thoughts on Just the Judge at 3.45. He won his last race at curragh easily but it was a shorter race.

slaneylad

Ray Mond wrote: »

Wat do You's think of sky lanterns chances.? Always liked that horse but Hughes and Hannon haven't won much this week

Sky Lantern is probably Hannon's best horse in the yard, so it would probably be his best chance of a winner unless he has something extremely well in one of the handicaps.
Although I'm backing Big Break e/w hoping that she will improve for her first run.

MoscowFlyer

Just the Judge and Sky Lantern will have to sprout wings to win from their respective draws.

kpnuts

Joyeuse enhanced to 5/1 @ Boylesports

Mocha Joe

kpnuts wrote: »

Joyeuse enhanced to 5/1 @ Boylesports

Drifting everywhere it seems.