Ascot Day 3

Slattsy

Right lads,
I think its safe to say a few of us here like Alive Alive Oh

Here's my dilemma:
She's 11/4 with PP right now. Probably wont be any bigger as only 2/1 with Stan James.
Michael Bell is saying he might pull the 2nd fav The Lark(4/1) if the rain doesnt arrive. I dont fancy Just Pretending(wont stay) and that leaves Winsili as the danger, who i dont rate. But is a decent sort obviously, open to improvement.
Should i take the guaranteed 11/4 this eve ??

Johner

Yes!

byronbay2

Just bear in mind that there could be some rain tonight or tomorrow morning, in case that would affect your decision to back AAO.

Overthelast

Gold Cup: Rite of Passage or Simeon??????? Help.

Proven form of ROP +; Weld done it before from layoff +: Age so not getting any better -;

Simeon: Ran well LTO; Positive market/jockey vibes+; if there's a new kid to come onto the block, he looks the part.

I'm leaning towards a large ew on Simeon. Any angles on the race?

TheMilkyPirate

Seems like a bit of a minefield tomorrow.

MoscowFlyer

ALIVE ALIVE OH!!!!!!

GO ON YA GIRL YA!!!!

If she doesn't win I could be DEAD DEAD OH!!!!

Hulk Hands

Id say simenon is likely to be pricewised this eve. Even so, i might wait until tomorrow to back him or anyone else for that matter. I haven't seen a fancied horse all week that wasn't pushed out by a few bookies in the morning. That approach will only work if you have a few accounts though

Ray Mond

ill be having a big bet on Rite of Passage tomorrow.
Got a good word for him last year and he won got the same word this year , last year he won after a big lay off and I really think he can tomorrow too..Weld will have him in perfect nick, and smullen gave him a cracking ride last year.

Overthelast

Ok, settled on the Gold Cup. I've just backed Simeon ew. My only bet tomorrow. Not wildy confident after the update on Rite of Passage above. But I hope I've read this race right.

"Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane"

John Mongo

Alive Alive Oh in a single, then the same horse in a double with Rite of Passage.

Hoping for Ascot to be nice to me tomorrow. Anecdote saved my bacon today after a shocking first day.

Oscars Well.

Just did a double, Mullins' in the bumper at wexford and Alive Alive Oh.

tryfix

Not too impressed with those at the front of the Ascot Gold Cup market, although the likely favourite Estimate with a dosage of 0.27 has got to respected and has to be one of the stoutest bred horses I've ever come across.

High Jinx 11/1 and Vadamar 28/1 will be my two against the field.

madmoose

My bets are

Rite of Passage ew
Alive Alive Oh
Remote

all singles

carpothepunk

Biggest bet of the week on Remote tomorrow. Of course I pick a dreadfully trappy race to "nap" in, but I am snaffling up anyone offering 7/2 still. Been chatting to friends about it for a long time now. The step up in trip is sure to suit, but visually, his performance at Doncaster was stunning, with the second more than franking the form next time out. Up a few shekels for the meeting so far after Duntle and GFT today, so half that is gone on as well. Best of luck.

ste2010

Im not a major flat man but You'd have to think rite of passage will win this tomorrow. This has been his one and only target tomorrow. I reckon the lack of appearance is strategic more than through lack of readiness.

UrbanSea

Good God Simenon is a horrendous price. Colour Vision at the prices stands out, so too does Model Pupil at 50/1 stepped up in trip again.

madmoose

Also think Biographer could out run his big odds tomorrow if he stays, he was staying on lto vs Tiger Cliff and he had his doubt when he placed over 2m4 yesterday, might back him in the place market.

cardwizzard

Wentworth in the Britannia looks like it'll be my bet of the day. Must have a great chance although 4/1 is tight in such a huge race..

Van Der Neer in the 5.00. 8/1 looks a bit of value and i'll do it E/W.


Saayeer in the first. Fancy that to go real close. 10/1 i'll do E/W


Good luck all.

longshotvalue

Gold Cup 3:45

I’m going to back only 1 horse tomorrow as it’s not my type of racing with mostly 2yo and 3yo races. Rites Of Passage is one of my favourite horses and I can’t see past him for this tomorrow. He is the obvious form choice and is surprised to say the least that he isn’t favourite here. The fact that he is in here after a break, isn’t a worry at all given that he has been very lightly raced. Even though Simenon looks best of the rest he has a long way to make up on proven group level form on the flat.7/1 looks a great price and if he can come near his best he will take some beating here.


2 Point win Rites Of Passage

Slattsy

Place lay Simenon 1.01

Ray Mond

Ray Mond wrote: »

ill be having a big bet on Rite of Passage tomorrow.
Got a good word for him last year and he won got the same word this year , last year he won after a big lay off and I really think he can tomorrow too..Weld will have him in perfect nick, and smullen gave him a cracking ride last year.

Anyone know if its forecast to rain tomoro as I've been told ROP will need the rain to Fuuuk off.
Ill be backing it again tomoro if there's no rain €€€€

Overthelast

Might get showers but doesn't look like anything too much at this stage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Drag the cursor across to judge for yourself. It is only a forecast though..

Overthelast

Actually, ROP I rank as the only danger to my selection Simenon...come on the rain.......

carpothepunk

Sorry for the essay, but I had written it out for a couple other forums I post on. Love to hear from opinions, throwing a few darts at bigger priced horses tomorrow.

3-05 - Alive Alive Oh rightfully heads the market on all known form. Her last two performances have been so impressive, visually, but she has also shown a great attitude. I think tomorrow she stakes her claim to be the best 3yo middle distance filly. Sleeping Beauty, Magical Dream, Harmonic Note and even Lake Louise have all come out and franked that form subsequently, all of whom comprehensively beaten by this high class filly. If the rain does not come, it looks like The Lark may be a NR, so I would snaffle up the price this evening. PP went 11/4.

3-45 - Obviously a wide open betting heat, but for one, I feel Simenon is a silly price. His run at Chester was a tad unlucky, and he loves Ascot, but I feel he appears a lot more unlucky than he actually was in the Chester Cup, and is flattered by his price. He certainly crossed the line strongly, but I have taken a chance and marked him out. I have taken two against the field here. I feel MODEL PUPIL at 80/1 on betfair is massively overpriced. He finished ahead of High Jinx, Times Up and Colour Vision the last day, and given, they may not have been tuned up fully, I cannot understand the difference in price. I feel, stepping up again in trip, there is more improvement to be eked out from this 4YO. He stayed on dourly LTO, and I just feel 80/1 is far too big.

The second against the field I am taking is French Raider TOP TRIP at 20/1 on betfair. On his first start in the UK he was sent off 11/4 favourite, and had been backed solidly all day. He was outpaced, and driven, from about half way in that contest, but he made up ground hand over fist in the closing 2f. He was just denied on that occasion, but went straight into the notebook for me. I feel, again, stepping up in trip will suit him down to the ground,, and the extra distance will cause him no worries.

4-25 - Slightly more simple in my selections. It is hard to get away from Wentworth here, given the amount of running he finished with on his last appearance, having met much trouble in running, but given the field and value on offer, again, I will take two against the field. First is CAPE PERON at 8/1. Maybe the second most stunning handicap winner of the season so far, he won with any amount in hand in a 0-85 contest. Now, obviously this is a big step up in class, but he could be anything, and he is on an upward curve. The second against the field, is the overpriced, in my opinion, MARKET TOWN. I fear I have missed the boat on the best prices here, but the 20/1 readily available is decent. Charles Hills charge holds an entry in the John Smiths cup, so connections clearly feel the step up in trip is no problem. Again, he didnt endure the clearest of runs when behind Haafaguinea LTO, and duly is preferred in the market. Lemaire rides, and I feel a small punt is fair.

5-00 - Finally, REMOTE. My best bet of the week, if someone was to ask me for one. This massively progressive Dansili 3yo was so, so impressive LTO at Doncaster. He has progressed with each start, and with the promise of more to come, is a strong selection for me. He readily dispatched of Baltic Knight that day, pulling 6l clear, and a further 2 lengths back to third. Baltic Knight franked that form, beating the well thought of Quick Wit of the Godolphin team next time out. This race is all about REMOTE for me. He travels, he finds, he quickens. A decent bet for me earlier in the month, but there is still 7/2 available. For those looking for an EW play, I would try one on the Johnston inmate WINDHOEK. Was on a massive upward curve before bombing out at York. I feel you can overlook that race, as I feel Johnstons charges never truly give their running at York, for whatever reason. But this is all about Remote for me.

Always interested to hear others opinions. First time in a long time I have put up some proper selections here. Now watch them all finish out with the washing.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Place lay Simenon 1.01

SFRC to hit that post with some humorous aftertiming if he wins 1.01

SM746

2pt win Alive Alive Oh 11/4.
1pt win Remote 4/1 and String Theory 33/1.
.5pt win on Coulsty 13/2, Sadlers Rock 8/1 and Royal Skies 11/1.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

SFRC to hit that post with some humorous aftertiming if he wins 1.01

The legacy of national hunt posting lives on :-)

mailburner

in order of stake
alive alive oh
simenon
remote
cape peron
coulsty
pethers moon

MoscowFlyer

The form of Alive Alive Oh and Remote seems to good to be true.

I have them in singles and doubles.

Godspeed people, Godspeed.

the groutch

Aaim To Prosper looks overpriced in the GC, last seen on the flat winning a Cesarwich off 107, and has won over 3 miles over hurdles since, so no problems with staying out the trip.

not sure what people see in Remote, I'd be backing Chopin in that race, he met all kinds of trouble in running in the deerby and still only get beat by 4L.

jimjamcos

Like many on here, backed Alive Alive Oh @ 11/4 with PP yesterday.


In the Gold Cup I'm going to take a chance on Saddlers Rock if the ground is similar to today's, on the better side of good. He's a risky betting proposition having only won 4 times from 15 career runs but he's had proper excuses IMO. He had good form going into last years Gold Cup and ran a cracker in it despite running too freely in the early stages and on ground that was too soft. He then followed up by winning the Cup race at Goodwood on good ground. After that he was very disappointing, running with soft in the description 3 times and on proper good ground just the once. He was flogged a bit on ground he didn't like by the time Champions Day came around and was never going to handle the soft like the likes of Rite Of Passage did that day.

While he got his ground in his 2 Meydan runs this year, the first race was over a trip much too short while his jockey's saddle slipped in the other. Significantly, Oxx has given his a good break between those runs and tomorrow which I think will do his chances no harm.

A bit like another favourite of mine, Sole Power before this season, I think Saddlers Rock has been a luckless horse up until now. I've no doubt he's good enough to win tomorrow's Gold Cup if things fall right for him. He's not a huge price for what he's actually achieved but I think bookies know he's a got the talent if things click for him. I'll be watching the weather like a hawk tomorrow and if ground remains good-firm I'll be eating up some of the 8/1 about Saddlers Rock!

longshotvalue

Gold Cup



I’m going against my previous statement and going to back another horse in the same race. If there is a surprise here I think the most likely of the higher prices horses may well be Top Trip. His first run in the UK in the Yorkshire Cup reads well, and he looked sure there to be well suited to a further step up in trip. He is relatively unexposed and with some pretty standard improvement here he could well get competitive here. He has some very decent middle distance form in France last year and looks a decent price at 20/1.


1 Point win 20/1 Coral & Stan James

rockycelt

2.30 Wind Fire 16/1 (Bet365 BOG)

She won her Maidan in a time of 1m 0.8s. Granted, a few of tomorrows runners have better times (best being Coulsty @ 58.5s). However, her race was over 5f 6y, which will add a bit on considering she was eased down. ALso, Spencer didn't touch her that day. He shook her up alright, but didn't lay the stick on her. But biggest of all, she was in a Fillies race, and done her time carrying 9st, tomorrow she gets the 3lb Fillies allowance.
The value horse in the race @ 16/1

Slattsy

rockycelt wrote: »

2.30 Wind Fire 16/1 (Bet365 BOG)

She won her Maidan in a time of 1m 0.8s. Granted, a few of tomorrows runners have better times (best being Coulsty @ 58.5s). However, her race was over 5f 6y, which will add a bit on considering she was eased down. ALso, Spencer didn't touch her that day. He shook her up alright, but didn't lay the stick on her. But biggest of all, she was in a Fillies race, and done her time carrying 9st, tomorrow she gets the 3lb Fillies allowance.
The value horse in the race @ 16/1

Good spot. Was looking at her too. Spencer could be riding a 10/1 shot in the race in Green Door but goes for Wind Fire instead here, quite interesting.

carpothepunk

I just watched her maiden there. Very nice spot. I hadn't had a bet in the race, will have a few shekels at 18s on betfair. Cheers.

Dubron

jimjamcos wrote: »

Like many on here, backed Alive Alive Oh @ 11/4 with PP yesterday.


In the Gold Cup I'm going to take a chance on Saddlers Rock if the ground is similar to today's, on the better side of good. He's a risky betting proposition having only won 4 times from 15 career runs but he's had proper excuses IMO. He had good form going into last years Gold Cup and ran a cracker in it despite running too freely in the early stages and on ground that was too soft. He then followed up by winning the Cup race at Goodwood on good ground. After that he was very disappointing, running with soft in the description 3 times and on proper good ground just the once. He was flogged a bit on ground he didn't like by the time Champions Day came around and was never going to handle the soft like the likes of Rite Of Passage did that day.

While he got his ground in his 2 Meydan runs this year, the first race was over a trip much too short while his jockey's saddle slipped in the other. Significantly, Oxx has given his a good break between those runs and tomorrow which I think will do his chances no harm.

A bit like another favourite of mine, Sole Power before this season, I think Saddlers Rock has been a luckless horse up until now. I've no doubt he's good enough to win tomorrow's Gold Cup if things fall right for him. He's not a huge price for what he's actually achieved but I think bookies know he's a got the talent if things click for him. I'll be watching the weather like a hawk tomorrow and if ground remains good-firm I'll be eating up some of the 8/1 about Saddlers Rock!

Thanks for writing all that up as it saves me from having to do it! Backed Alive Alive Oh, feel the same Sole Power and Saddlers Rock and will be backing the latter each way tomorrow. Only wish is that Johnny Murtagh was on board, McDonagh a fine pilot but Murtagh is peerless at Ascot.

Don't get the Remote price at all. 3/1 is very short! Would have Van Der Neer and Chopin ahead of him. Can't wait to see Van Der Neer over 10f but the one I've gone for is Shikarpour at 6/1. If there's enough rain to change the ground I'll be going in again too.

carpothepunk

I don't think Jamie would have had the choice to ride Green Door, however.

jimjamcos

Dubron wrote: »

Thanks for writing all that up as it saves me from having to do it! Backed Alive Alive Oh, feel the same Sole Power and Saddlers Rock and will be backing the latter each way tomorrow. Only wish is that Johnny Murtagh was on board, McDonagh a fine pilot but Murtagh is peerless at Ascot.

Don't get the Remote price at all. 3/1 is very short! Would have Van Der Neer and Chopin ahead of him. Can't wait to see Van Der Neer over 10f but the one I've gone for is Shikarpour at 6/1. If there's enough rain to change the ground I'll be going in again too.

Agree about Murtagh...would be a huge plus if he was on him but Oxx is nothing if not loyal to his jockeys.

Slattsy

Looks a poor renewal of the Gold Cup to me.

The one i really like here is High Jinx at around 12/1 and i think he's worth a decent each way bet.

This lad is a bit of a monkey and should have more wins to his name as he certainly has plenty of ability, but as i said he doesnt make things easy for his rider as he doesnt always seem to give his all at times and races quite lazily/awkwardly, but High Jinx's ability is there for all to see once he puts his best foot forward as finishing ahead of the likes of Colour Vision, Simenon and Saddlers Rock a few times last year proves, and probably should have beaten Times Up at Donny too.

Im hoping Fanshawe has got to the bottom of him by now, he's a very patient trainer and knows what it takes to win big races, and there's a chance HJ will be more mature this year. I think Fanshawe used his seasonal debut this year as a pipe opener as he clearly wasnt fit, at one point it looked as if he'd finish tailed off before getting a second wind and running on really well to grab 4th. The extra distance will suit and as long as the ground doesnt firm up(chance it may) i think he'll win this.

rockycelt

Slattsy wrote: »

Good spot. Was looking at her too. Spencer could be riding a 10/1 shot in the race in Green Door but goes for Wind Fire instead here, quite interesting.

carpothepunk wrote: »

I just watched her maiden there. Very nice spot. I hadn't had a bet in the race, will have a few shekels at 18s on betfair. Cheers.

glad you agree lads.
forgot to add, 2nd and 3rd both won NTO.

slaneylad

I think Market Town in the 4 25 is a great each way bet @ 16-1 powers are going first 6 1/4 of the odds. There is a few quid around for him already. he was very green the last day and he drifted in the market before the race. He still managed to finish second. I think he may have actually hit the front to early.

ShaneU

Coach House 5/2 at 2.05, money back if second on PP.

And Alive Alive Oh too.

Hulk Hands

7/2 alive alive oh with coral . Good things come to those who wait

Slattsy

As expected The Lark is now a non runner.

Is the ground good to firm?

John Mongo

Slattsy wrote: »

As expected The Lark is now a non runner.

Is the ground good to firm?

Yeah, according to the RP it's good to firm.

Slattsy

Cheers.

Might need to rethink my Gold Cup selection.

droidman123

Shebebi in the britannia e-w 16-1,powers paying first 6 home!!!!

the groutch

droidman123 wrote: »

powers paying first 6 home!!!!

just be aware that the price to pay for 6 places is worse prices, outside the first two in the betting PP aren't best or even joint best price on any other horse, and in some cases the worst price.

Overthelast

Come on the rain...

Slattsy

Feck off rain !!

Ray Mond

Is it raining?