Royal Ascot Day 1

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00

Apache for me is a totally overlooked horse here. I was happy enough with his last run when he was way too far back and came with a decent run to get to 5th in the end at Haydock. He looks sure to be helped by the step up in trip and he could well have a touch of class, that if he is on his game here his current price of 40/1 with betvictor could look huge. He was a good 3rd in the Melrose at york of 10lbs higher a couple of years ago and has been looking this year if he is building to a good performance. If that’s the case this race is surly his target. I think his place prospects are really strong.


1 Point EW 40/1 Betvictor

Paully D

Just saw this thread after posting my selections in the other thread. I'm still undecided to be honest, and won't bet on every race, but at the minute I'm looking at:

2:30 - laying Animal Kingdom
3:05 - Sole Power e/w
3:45 - Mars e/w
4:25 - Sir John Hawkins
5:00 - Big Easy e/w
5:35 - Sacha Park e/w

mdwexford

Is there much of a chance of Animal Kingdom being beaten tomorrow?

Im not a big flat person but a quick look at the form doesnt seem to give much of them a chance of finishing in front of him.

Slattsy

mdwexford wrote: »

Is there much of a chance of Animal Kingdom being beaten tomorrow?

Im not a big flat person but a quick look at the form doesnt seem to give much of them a chance of finishing in front of him.

Hard to find anything to beat him.

AK apart, the rest are basically Group 3/Listed level horses.

Johner

Elusive Kate for the forecast. She's a group one filly imo but Animal Kingdom will be too strong for her.

SM746

Just on ATR there from tomorrow morning at 9am Ladbrokes are going:
5/4 Animal Kingdom
3/1 Shea Shea
6/4 Dawn Approach

12.5/1 treble Tony Ennis just said

Luap

Boylesport mobile offer:

5/4 Animal Kingdom

€25 Max Bet only tho.

the groutch

3:05 Kingsgate Native (betting w/o Shea Shea)
4:25 Sir John Hawkins, Dubawi Fun e/w
5:00 Well Sharp & Midnight Oil (dutched)

Johner

I'm going for the Animal Kingdom(evens), Shea Shea(9/4) and Dawn Approach(6/4) treble. €100 returns €1625.

SM746

Johner wrote: »

I'm going for the Animal Kingdom(evens), Shea Shea(9/4) and Dawn Approach(6/4) treble. €100 returns €1625.

Done the same bet a week ago but only got 8/11 on AK and 2/1 on Shea Shea.
Also backed the 4 fold with Educate which came 277/1 ish. Could be a good Tuesday with some luck.

mike65

I happen to have been going through Ascot (all meets) looking at the draw bias - all types of races over sprint distances.

Over the mile (8f) in fields of about 10-14 pick the best high drawn.

Over 7f the bigger the field the greater draw advantage to the high numbers and the very low numbers (don't pick anything down the middle basically), in medium sized fields the lowest 3 boxes are worst otherwise its pretty even.

6f - no draw advantage to speak of.

5f - a very small high draw advantage in fields over about a dozen runners.

I also noticed that the distance races also have bias right up to 2.4m, generally higher numbers. But I'll have a proper look at those races tomorrow morning.

MoscowFlyer

I think Pearl Secret is the unknown quantity since he hasn't run this season.

1. Shea Shea
2. Reckless Abandon
3. Pearl Secret

MoscowFlyer

SM746 wrote: »

Just on ATR there from tomorrow morning at 9am Ladbrokes are going:
5/4 Animal Kingdom
3/1 Shea Shea
6/4 Dawn Approach

12.5/1 treble Tony Ennis just said

I just did the treble and got it at 14.5/1

AK - 1/1
Shea Shea - 9/4
Dawn Approach - 11/8

kksaints

2 30 Declaration of War EW
3 05 No bet. Would expect Shea Shea to win.
3 45 Toronado. Might have a little on George Vancouver each-way.
4 25 Sir John Hawkins
5 00 Tiger Cliff.
5 35 Not sure yet. More than likely no bet.

SM746

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

I just did the treble and got it at 14.5/1

AK - 1/1
Shea Shea - 9/4
Dawn Approach - 11/8

Yeah his calculations were of I realised that the minute I had typed it. No idea why he said that to be honest

jimjamcos

Have been backing Animal Kingdom and Shea Shea antepost over the last month or so only a couple of small bets for me tomorrow. Both of them in 2 trebles, one with Magician (if running) and one with Dawn Approach.

Can't see anything getting near AK (might look for a winning distance bet) but will have a saver on Elusive Kate with PP's money-back offer.

Will be backing Sole Power ew too. Ultra consistent, if not always winning, he was given a poor ride LTO IMO and with Murtagh back on him he's sure to run his race.

Brinks

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

I just did the treble and got it at 14.5/1

AK - 1/1
Shea Shea - 9/4
Dawn Approach - 11/8

PP doing better odds.
AK - 1/1
SS - 5/2
DA - 6-4

Colonel Sanders

Gamble on the apparent Coolmore 2nd string in the Coventry. Needs to step up from just a maiden win & Stubbs is miles clear of him on actual form but the money is talking as we speak

MoscowFlyer

I refuse to use PP. Principle thing

MoscowFlyer

How many people are gonna bet that treble?

If it comes in the bookies will be reeling. Just all too good to be true.

Brinks

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

I refuse to use PP. Principle thing

Money is money but I'm sure you have your reasons. Best of luck tomorrow.

Brinks

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

How many people are gonna bet that treble?

If it comes in the bookies will be reeling. Just all too good to be true.

I backed a oner on it as well but I always doubt 3 favorites in a row. Worth a go. Midnight Soprano in Cork yesterday is paying for it. Hate giving the money back to bookies but fingers crossed.

longshotvalue

15:05 Ascot

This race for me can be narrowed down a fair bit, to proven Group 1 Performers. I think the Fav is too short here, even though he may be the most likely winner a lot has to go right for him in this big field sprint, which makes his odds of 2/1 look far too short. I think Kingsgate Native should well show up best of the first 3 from the Temple Stakes again, as he didn’t have the best position and seemed to win despite being on the wrong site. Sole Power is well capable of winning this if everything goes right and in general I think that can happen for him at a better ratio than the 9/1 currently available. He didn’t get the best of rides last time having being played far too early. I just can’t have any of the others at prices near these 2, not that they won’t improve but they haven’t done it yet. Usually something will surprise here and get into a place and it’s hard to pin down one of the outsiders that can but I’m getting a gut feeling the Prohibit might just improve here at the scene of his best race and be competitive. I’m afraid it’s the scatter gun approach for me here, with small bets on the 3 above.


½ Point win on Betfair all 3
Sole Power 10.5
Kingsgate Native 16
Prohibit 70

Colonel Sanders

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

I refuse to use PP

They refuse to let me use them.......

longshotvalue

3:45 Ascot

George Vancover hasn’t been great this season but I think he may outrun his odds here tomorrow. Apart from the top 2 in the market a lot of the rest of the field have as many questions to answer as he does this year. Bet365 are standout on the Place only Market at 18/1 and I think that could well be value here, he looks more of a 12/1 shot to place to me.


1 Point Place Bet365 18/1

MoscowFlyer

Just had a quick glance at the 4.25 and Im gonna have an E/W bet on PARBOLD. Fahey's yard is in great nick and while the form of the race he won on debut doesn't really look that good I still think there is value here. Def think it will be an improver, the fourth horse that day has won a Class 2 race but the others in and around haven't done much so it's patchy form at best.

Anyway, pretty open race if you ask me but opting for PARBOLD @ 14/1 in most places.

Goldcupfav

Think Sleeper King in the last race tomorrow is a decent each way bet at 14/1 with Boyles paying 4 places.

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

They refuse to let me use them.......

Here here..

Goldcupfav

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Just had a quick glance at the 4.25 and Im gonna have an E/W bet on PARBOLD. Fahey's yard is in great nick and while the form of the race he won on debut doesn't really look that good I still think there is value here. Def think it will be an improver, the fourth horse that day has won a Class 2 race but the others in and around haven't done much so it's patchy form at best.

Anyway, pretty open race if you ask me but opting for PARBOLD @ 14/1 in most places.

Really like Stubbs for that race but will be backing Parbold in the w/o the fav market. Think its 11/1 now with Powers but i'll wait till morning see if theres better price around. Maiden he won he was still very green and pulled like a train at the start of the race. Fully agree Parbold is worth a punt tomorrow.

rockycelt

Thoughts on riverboat springs in the Coventry lads?
Race of two halves for him at Ascot, with such a strong finish.
If he gets his act together early tomorrow he's in the mix surely?

Well Sharp for me in the long one. Well impressed with him n the 2 miler at York. Won going away.

luckyeye

Luap wrote: »

Boylesport mobile offer:

5/4 Animal Kingdom

€25 Max Bet only tho.

Coral going 2/1 - max bet €25 - From 8am tomorrow morning :eek::eek::eek:

What the hell is going on? Have him backed all the way from 11/4 down to evens but getting kinda worried now...

carpothepunk

If the 3 win, me and many others, I am sure, are away to Ascot to watch the rest haha. And maybe lump the remainder on Al Kazeem

bellybuster12

Less than 12 hours to go, love this week! Gl all.

Just to get the pulses racing.......


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6Sid0fqd_4

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

They refuse to let me use them.......

So that's betvictor and pp...you need to start posting your selections more if they've made a business decision not to deal with you !

Backstreet Moyes

luckyeye wrote: »

Coral going 2/1 - max bet €25 - From 8am tomorrow morning :eek::eek::eek:

What the hell is going on? Have him backed all the way from 11/4 down to evens but getting kinda worried now...

Got €29 on seems to good to be true.

Colonel Sanders

Coral 7/4 Dawn Approach & 5/4 Animal Kingdom. Both a bit shorter on Betfair

Colonel Sanders

ste2010 wrote: »

So that's betvictor and pp...you need to start posting your selections more if they've made a business decision not to deal with you !

Trust me the sum of money betvictor shut me over is a pathetic joke.

Oscars Well.

Gone for an Animal Kingdom, Dawn Approach and Al Khazeem treble. Here's hoping!

carmanard

One of the dubious benefits of being off sick for the week is that I'll get to see all of Royal Ascot for the first time in about 15 years. Normally working when it's on & sneaking bits & pieces of it here & there, so this will be a change... Got to watch the preview show on ATR yesterday too which had a few useful titbits of info there, so hopefully I'm well equipped for a few succesful punts this week

carmanard

For today, I think the big treble (AK, SS & DA) is under threat, two out of three should come in but I just can't see all 3 doing it. I have had a tenner on it anyway just in case, but it's speculative rather than with supreme confidence...

carmanard

In terms of the rest of today's racing, I'm throwing each way money at Shamexpress in the Kings Stand and Homeric in the 2 mile 4 race having seen the replays yesterday of their last runs I was sufficiently impressed with them. Also backing e/w on Wahaab in the Coventry and Fountain of Youth in the Windsor Castle, both out of cracking race mares (Indian Ink & Attraction respectively) and look very decent animals themselves. Might cover the Animal Kingdom & Dawn Approach races with a forecast or e/w selection before the off, but have no strong fancy against them as it stands...

Slattsy

My thoughts on the big 3 today:
Shea Shea wont win today. I think he's very beatable. And Reckless Abandon is the one to do it. His first run this year was mighty and he'll come on a bundle for it.

Animal Kingdom will win, purely because he faces hugely inferior horses. On another day with proper Group 1 horses i'd certainly be taking him on, but he could easily romp this. Terrible race.

Dawm Approach - v Magician could be the race of the meeting. DA needs to bounce back from his Derby flop, but there's no way in hell Bolger or Godolphin would let him run if they didnt think he would win today. Racing reasons aside, for stud value they wouldnt run him if he wasnt 100% so he is my idea of the winner for this reason. Leitor Mor to set a blistering pace with DA to follow him through and kick on early. Magician is a huge danger though, very impresive lto and will travel better than most, he'll certainly put it up to DA alright and as we seen from the Irish 2000, a quick pace will suit him down to the ground. It will be close. On a line through Van Der Neer there's nothing between them, but did VDN run his race at the Curragh....hard to say. There could be some serious value if Magician goes 3/1 close to the off as i can see DA being backed, i'll switch my bet if i can get 3/1!!

GL

Nulty

Hugh Taylor has the right view

11/2 about Reckless Abandon is the most convincing bet of the day. OR117 to Shea Sheas OR120 with Reckless at 11/2 and Shea Shea at 5/2?

Obvious bet. Reckless is unexposed, the rest are clearly not as good as Shea Shea but Reckless is at least as good as the rest and unexposed and potentially better than Shea Shea

Overthelast

Of the 3 Grp 1 favs, I reckon Animal Kingdom will be beaten. Bookies are happy to get him in the bag, pushing out his price & its the PP special today. Another special to note is with BV, there's some offer printed in the RP today that if Richard Hughes place, they give you a free bet or something to the value of a losing stake :eek: Now I may have read that wrong but it would put a ? over his rides today. I'd love to see Dawn Approach get beaten, just to cheer up JB & put a wry smile back on his face but he'll probabaly waltz away with the race. Shea Shea looks like a bull & will be hard to knock over but if there's one proven Grp 1 performer, its Reckless Abandon. I've done a small win only L31 just for an interest in today's races, with my strongest fancy for Day 1 being Tiger Cliff but I just don't want to crack the wallet on day 1 if it goes pear shaped.

Good luck today.

My day 1 Selections
2.30 Elusive Kate
3.05 Reckless Abandon
4.25 Sir John Hawkins
5.00 Tiger Cliff
5.35 Ben Hall

Gatame

Anyone fancy Sovereign Debt @ 20/1?

kiers47

Anyone know what this set back was Joseph mentioned on his phone interview there on ATR in relation to magician?

Slattsy

kiers47 wrote: »

Anyone know what this set back was Joseph mentioned on his phone interview there on ATR in relation to magician?

Bruised foot, he only missed one piece of work though according to Aidan.

rockycelt

Nulty wrote: »

Hugh Taylor has the right view

11/2 about Reckless Abandon is the most convincing bet of the day. OR117 to Shea Sheas OR120 with Reckless at 11/2 and Shea Shea at 5/2?

Obvious bet. Reckless is unexposed, the rest are clearly not as good as Shea Shea but Reckless is at least as good as the rest and unexposed and potentially better than Shea Shea

Nulty, my eyes keep getting drawn to Reckless Abandon.
Was first run of the season last time out, and didn't get the run of the race. Won two Group 1s as a 2yo. He was only 4lb lighter against the 4yo's in the Temple Stakes, and still ran them to within 1/2l. Had he been drawn better in that one, he could have won.
Should come on for that run, and he gets the full 6lb allowance today against the older horses, he looks the pick of the UK & Irish

11/2 with Bet365 paying 4 places.
each way bet to nothing

7/2 in the w/o fav market

I don't think he'll beat Shea Shea, but he's probably the pick of the rest. Swiss Spirit is one who was also unlucky in the Temple Stakes, so is a danger for the 7/2 bet.

madmoose

Ive done

Animal Kindom 2/1

Dawn Approach 13/8

Reckless Abandon 11/2 ew 5 places

singles

rockycelt

where you getting 5 places on Reckless Abandon madmoose?

Slattsy

Dawn Approach at 13/8 could be worth a serious punt.