Foxhunters Champion Hunters' Chase - Friday

Johner

Love this race. This year it looks like a cracking renewal.

Salsify, Mossey Joe, Chapoturgeon and Tammy's Hill just some of the entries. It's on Friday night at 8.30 Stratford.

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=762410&meetingid=60094&date=2013-06-07&ref=fixtures&refsite=&nav=racecards

Salsify hosed up last year, I like Tammys Hill but if Mossey Joe puts in a clear round he'll be hard to beat. Prices will be interesting.

rossom

If those 4 all line up it will be a superb race and will be a fascinating market. I'm very much of the impression as well that if Mossey jumps clear than he'll be very tough to beat and will be backing him accordingly.

jimjamcos

Super race! Salsify will probably be fav but if the ground is like a road, it might harm his chances.

Francie Barrett

jimjamcos wrote: »

Super race! Salsify will probably be fav but if the ground is like a road, it might harm his chances.

Salsify > Tammys Hill over better ground!

jimjamcos

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Salsify > Tammys Hill over better ground!

Sorry, I got that totally arseways alright. Salsify is much better for good ground according to connections, despite winning on soft at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Francie Barrett

Race trend: 12 of the last 13 winners of this race have won previously over 3m+

Francie Barrett

Race trend: 12 of the last 13 winners of this race have won their previous race.

Francie Barrett

It's hard to see past Salsify. It will love the ground, it will love the distance, the times it has run are extremely quick, it has the form, it's supposed to be 100% (it wasn't at Cheltenham).

If I can get 2/1 I will be all over that price.

Johner

13 declared. Looks an absolute cracker. Small bet on Tammys Hill as I'm guessing hes going to be a nice eacy way price and does have form on good ground.

1 3/1P-1 Chapoturgeon
2 2P21-4 Coombe Hill
3 P12-31 Drom
4 04-531 Keenan´s Future
5 2U11-1 Mossey Joe
6 31-U12 Presentandcorrect
7 3P-111 Rosies Peacock
8 223-12 Rumbury Grey
9 22111- Salsify
10 411-U2 Surenaga
11 11221- Tammys Hill
12 3632-1 Vic Venturi
13 21P2-1 What A Laugh

Forecast prices: 3/1 Salsify, 9/2 Mossey Joe, 5/1 Chapoturgeon, 8/1 Tammys Hill, 10/1 What A Laugh, Rumbury Grey, 14/1 Surenaga, Presentandcorrect, Rosies Peacock, 16/1 Vic Venturi, Coombe Hill, 20/1 Keenan's Future, 50/1 Drom

Slattsy

3/1 seems too good to be true for Salsify :eek:

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

3/1 seems too good to be true for Salsify :eek:

The forecast is usually wrong anyways and it will be probably be a bit shorter but I think 3/1 looks about right in this open contest. Its by far the toughest race in a long time for Salsify. Tammys Hill looked to have his measure earlier in the season(albeit on softer ground and shorter distances). He was lucky at Cheltenham. His last run was very very impressive but you have the likes of Mossey Joe, Chapoturgeon and Tammys Hill in this. It's set up for a cracker! Give me this over a group 1 flat race any day.

rossom

What a super, super race we have in store. If I can get the 9/2 about Mossey it'll be a very big each way bet for me.

premierstone

rossom wrote: »

If those 4 all line up it will be a superb race and will be a fascinating market. I'm very much of the impression as well that if Mossey jumps clear than he'll be very tough to beat and will be backing him accordingly.

rossom wrote: »

What a super, super race we have in store. If I can get the 9/2 about Mossey it'll be a very big each way bet for me.

Would have thought these two statements are contradictory??

If you see the biggest danger to Mossy Joe being a fall, why would you back it each way?

Not having a go btw just curious as to the logic, I would have thought double the win bet with fallers insurance would be the best strategy?

longshotvalue

Chapoturgeon is a much better horse on good ground and i hope to god he is 5/1 .. There is nothing between him and salsify on form, apart from this years festival where the soft ground didnt suit Chap.

rossom

premierstone wrote: »

Would have thought these two statements are contradictory??

If you see the biggest danger to Mossy Joe being a fall, why would you back it each way?

Not having a go btw just curious as to the logic, I would have thought double the win bet with fallers insurance would be the best strategy?

What I meant about him jumping round was that if he gets around unblemished (used to be prone to hit a fence hard on occasion earlier in his career but hasn't done so this season) then I think he'll be incredibly tough to beat. I meant that as opposed to the only way I can see him being beat is if he falls.

The 2nd part is just an approach I take on occasion when the race make up suits. Even though I strongly fancy Mossey Joe to win, I will be utterly shocked if he's out of the first 3 and given that I rate Salsify as a very real danger I'd much rather have a very large each way than a very large single on him if the price allows.

I can see why the two points seemed contradictory though.

rossom

PP very shrewd in pricing up the race with none of the big 4 bigger than 9/2.

Salsify 6/4, Mossey Joe 7/2, Chapoturgeon 4/1 & Tammys Hill 9/2

I'll hold off on backing Mossey at the moment to see how the market forms.

shy-tall-knight

This is one hell of a renewal, Mossey Joe for me, if Skehan can get him settled and in a rhythm early on he could have that extra little bit of class compared to Salsify.

Slattsy

rossom wrote: »

PP very shrewd in pricing up the race with none of the big 4 bigger than 9/2.

Salsify 6/4, Mossey Joe 7/2, Chapoturgeon 4/1 & Tammys Hill 9/2

I'll hold off on backing Mossey at the moment to see how the market forms.

Thats roughly around the prices i expected on Salsify and Mossey Joe.
I did think the other two would be 2 points bigger though.

Johner

Bet Victor are best price on Mossey Joe, Chapoturgeon and Tammys Hill. At the prices I'll be happy enough just to watch and enjoy it. I don't think Salsify is value at 11/8.

jimjamcos

What would a reverse forecast of Salsify 6/5 and Mossey Joe 4/1 work out as can anyone tell me?

Morgans

Having thought he could do Salsify at Cheltenham, Chapoturgeon is the one I would ignore tomorrow. Scrambled home at Newton Abbot in a far lesser race than this, not convinced to stay, well below average jockey.

Tammys Hill has one too many holes also.

Two horse race. Rejuvenated Mossey Joe could string them out and was impressive at Killarney. Think its between the two. Mossey Joe could set it up and allow Salsify to travel better than normal and come late.

ste2010

2 to note from me for tomorrow.
Paul Nolan has Acapulco gold running in its first chase handicap at Stratford in the second race, given his plotting background would be no surprise if he went close to landing this. 9/2 and shortening with bet victor

Peter Bowen has mighty Clarets in the last race entered again first time into handicaps. This is his wife's horse and hasn't had a win since last June on the flat. His stable is on absolute fire at the moment. 38% strike rate in the past 2 weeks. It would be no surprise whatsoever to see this horse win off a big price. Currently 14-1 and drifting

nevis7

I am up in Downpatrick tomorrow. to those contemplating having a wager on mosey joe, I could suggest don't, you may not want to listen, if you do bet him, make sure it is win only, an each way wager would a real mugs bet. the reason I say this is because I spoke to his owner down at Killarney and he said the horse is bleeding most of the time, he bled ay cork over easter and that is why he fell in against poor horses. he will be taken on from the start around this tight course, and when dominated he may down tools and may not finish.

ste2010

nevis7 wrote: »

I am up in Downpatrick tomorrow. to those contemplating having a wager on mosey joe, I could suggest don't, you may not want to listen, if you do bet him, make sure it is win only, an each way wager would a real mugs bet. the reason I say this is because I spoke to his owner down at Killarney and he said the horse is bleeding most of the time, he bled ay cork over easter and that is why he fell in against poor horses. he will be taken on from the start around this tight course, and when dominated he may down tools and may not finish.

Whatever way you look at it. That's certainly a negative. Cheers for that

rossom

nevis7 wrote: »

I am up in Downpatrick tomorrow. to those contemplating having a wager on mosey joe, I could suggest don't, you may not want to listen, if you do bet him, make sure it is win only, an each way wager would a real mugs bet. the reason I say this is because I spoke to his owner down at Killarney and he said the horse is bleeding most of the time, he bled ay cork over easter and that is why he fell in against poor horses. he will be taken on from the start around this tight course, and when dominated he may down tools and may not finish.

Bit odd. Another forum I post on someone that knows the owner's family (has been posting about him before making his Rules debut) has never mentioned bleeding. Don't really get the bit about him falling against poor horses either. Only time he fell was in a Grade 1 behind Sir Des Champs and his unseat came at the first. Is the owner the same Wayne Clifford that owns Bathwick Tyres?

I also don't really buy him needing an easy lead at all (and I don't think he'll set off from the front tomorrow) and he showed plenty of resolution in a battle 2 starts back having looked beaten before rallying late on to get back up.

Not doubting what you heard Nevis but it seems a little odd and I don't think they'd risk bringing him abroad for the first time if they had any doubts about his well being.

SRFC

Was told he had a hock problem or something and its fixed now what ever that means,owner is supposed to be very confident he'll win tomorrow is what a lad told me but who knows I wont be having a bet either way.

UrbanSea

Johnny Castle continues to drop in the weights and a positive jockey booking tomorrow at Newmarket, 18/1 is a fair each way price

Nocturnal Affair at Haydock 7/1 remember being told the last day at the Curragh he would come on a load for the run and ran well in a really good race.

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

Give me this over a group 1 flat race any day.

Funnily enough was saying something similar to one of the lads yesterday!

Slattsy

Two for me today.

Really fancy Salsify to win this evening but is short enough at the prices.
So i'll throw him in a double with Highland Colori in the 3.45 at Newmarket. a 2 times c&d winner and he's be totally laid out for this. 5/1 at the momemt with 365.

Double and a single on HC

/thread :cool:

BQQ

ste2010 wrote: »

2 to note from me for tomorrow.
Paul Nolan has Acapulco gold running in its first chase handicap at Stratford in the second race, given his plotting background would be no surprise if he went close to landing this. 9/2 and shortening with bet victor

Peter Bowen has mighty Clarets in the last race entered again first time into handicaps. This is his wife's horse and hasn't had a win since last June on the flat. His stable is on absolute fire at the moment. 38% strike rate in the past 2 weeks. It would be no surprise whatsoever to see this horse win off a big price. Currently 14-1 and drifting

Mighty clarets 11/2 now :eek:

Well spotted Ste whatever the result.


I think Black Rock Lake has a nice each way chance in the first at Downpatrick.
It's a track where course form is pretty significant and he was beaten less than a length in this race last year off 7lbs higher.

ste2010

BQQ wrote: »

Mighty clarets 11/2 now :eek:

Well spotted Ste whatever the result.


I think Black Rock Lake has a nice each way chance in the first at Downpatrick.
It's a track where course form is pretty significant and he was beaten less than a length in this race last year off 7lbs higher.

Lets hope it wins now ;-)

rockycelt

Slattsy wrote: »

Two for me today.

Really fancy Salsify to win this evening but is short enough at the prices.
So i'll throw him in a double with Highland Colori in the 3.45 at Newmarket. a 2 times c&d winner and he's be totally laid out for this. 5/1 at the momemt with 365.

Double and a single on HC

/thread :cool:

I'm all over Highland Colori today too Slattsy. Lots think he needs a bit of cut, but as you say twice C&D, under similar ground conditions. He's an honest horse too.
Got on at 7.4 this morning.

jimjamcos

Some stuff Slattsy boy!

Handsome Bob

Well done lads!

Backstreet Moyes

Delighted with Highland Colori always backs him. Thought he is usually held up but he won fairly well.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Two for me today.

Really fancy Salsify to win this evening but is short enough at the prices.
So i'll throw him in a double with Highland Colori in the 3.45 at Newmarket. a 2 times c&d winner and he's be totally laid out for this. 5/1 at the momemt with 365.

Double and a single on HC

/thread :cool:

That was lovely.
Mates wedding tomorrow - thats paid for the champers and scotch

rockycelt

Nuts102 wrote: »

Delighted with Highland Colori always backs him. Thought he is usually held up but he won fairly well.

he drifted to about 18.0 IR on BF nuts, so he must have been well covered up in the first half of the race (I didn't see it)

delighted.

bohsman

rockycelt wrote: »

he drifted to about 18.0 IR on BF nuts, so he must have been well covered up in the first half of the race (I didn't see it)

delighted.

Went off ahead of the pack but 3 of them went like lunatics, sat in behind them and won comfortably in the end.

rockycelt

bohsman wrote: »

Went off ahead of the pack but 3 of them went like lunatics, sat in behind them and won comfortably in the end.

Cheers bb, 18.0 sounds like a gift in that case

Johner

Who hacked Slattys account recently? Firing in the winners!! Well done. Have a Coors to celebrate.:p

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

Two for me today.

Really fancy Salsify to win this evening but is short enough at the prices.
So i'll throw him in a double with Highland Colori in the 3.45 at Newmarket. a 2 times c&d winner and he's be totally laid out for this. 5/1 at the momemt with 365.

Double and a single on HC

/thread :cool:

Well done chieftain!

longshotvalue

Stratford 8:30

I had a fair bit of confidence about Chapoturgeon at the festival until the ground came up soft on the day and I see no reason to think any different here. I don’t think that there is a lot between him and the fav on good ground, and I see negatives in the other 2 main contenders. Mossey Joe could well be a bit slow in the finish here, and Tammy’s Hill looks just short of winning this on form as well as the fact that the ground probably won’t see him at his best. Salsify does look the most likely winner but I don’t think he is value compared to the 8.0 available about Chapoturgeon. I may be guilty of following my selection of a cliff here but I can’t go without a bet at that price.


2 Points win 8.0 Betfair

Slattsy

Johner wrote: »

Who hacked Slattys account recently? Firing in the winners!! Well done. Have a Coors to celebrate.:p

Wahey!!
I splashed out and got heineken and a spice burger. Dinner of Kings.

rossom

6.50 Leopardstown

Prince Chaparral 20/1

The bang in form Pat Flynn won this race last year and I think he has a great chance of landing it again this year with Prince Chaparral. This very well handicapped 7 year old races here off a mark of 73 which would make him chucked in on some of his old form and this is the first time that he gets to race on a proper quick surface on the flat which he absolutely relishes. Young Ian Queally takes a very valuable 10lb off his back to get him down to an effective mark of 63 and although he's yet to ride a winner under Rules he looks a useful enough rider and well worth his claim which gets Prince Chaparral's racing weight down to 8-1. With this 7 year old having gone well at Leopardstown in the past and his trainer in tremendous form, I think Prince Chaparral looks a very big price and I think a big run looks on the cards tonight.

7.05 Pontefract

Orsippus 11/2

Michael Smith's tremendous dual purpose horse look to have a great chance of scoring in this race given he is only 2lb above the mark he was a very impressive winner over pretty much this C+D last June. Racing here off a mark of 77 tonight, Orsippus struggled in better races than this after scoring at Pontefract a year ago (not disgraced on a number of occasions) but resultantly his mark has fallen 5lb to a mark that he should be very competitive off and the booking of Kieran Fallon, who was on board for that success, looks significant. He's been hurdling this year so far and is clearly as good as ever having won a decent handicap hurdle 2 starts ago and if taking the return to flat racing in his stride then I think he should go very close here.

8.30 Stratford

Mossey Joe 9/2 + 2/1 W/O Salsify

I very strongly fancy Mossey Joe to win this and see current favourite Salsify as the only viable threat so I've decided to have a bet on both the above markets. I think the ATR preview saying Mossey Joe was "a very special talent in his early days" sums him up perfectly and in another life I'm would be a Grade 1 winning chaser. I'll never forget his ridiculously impressive hurdling debut when pitched into a Grade 3 where he sauntered to victory on the bridle despite pulling ridiculously hard for the entire race and it just emphasises how big an engine he truly has. He looked a chaser with a massive future back in 2011 when he couldn't have won any easier on his first 2 starts before sprawling when looking sure to win in a handicap chase at Down Royal giving bucket loads of weight away off a mark of 150 when sprawling at 3 out in June of that year and an extremely heavy fall at the final flight in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival which left him bleeding from his nose knocked him for 6th as he looked set to finish 2nd to Sir Des Champs. He was sent back over hurdles to rebuild his confidence and the same has been done this year switched to hunter chases and he looks back to his best having won his last 3 starts in this sphere with his latest success particularly impressive as it was the first time in his career that he actually properly settled and got into a real racing rhythm and there is no doubt in my mind that this 10 year old is the class act in this field. This very much looks a 4 horse race between the front 4 in the market but I feel that both Mossey Joe and Salsify will have too much for Tammy's Hill and the doubtful stayer Chapoturgeon and I think this looks a straight shoot out between the 2 at the head of the market. Salsify clearly demands a huge amount of respect which is why I am also having a bet on Mossey Joe without that rival and 2/1 looks a very good price in that market. However, I very strongly fancy Mossey Joe to land this and if he does so easily it will not surprise me in the slightest and I hope this is a huge step in the right direction for this very talented 10 year old and I can see him turning up at the Galway Plate if he's successful today.

rossom

Great shout on Highland Colori lads.

Aidan I think Chapoturgeon looks a very doubtful stayer over this trip. If Mossey doesn't win then I hope he does.

Gatame

Can never pass McCoy at the finish.

ste2010

The "honest champ" piss*s on the parade again! Hopefully bowens will get us back on track in the last!

longshotvalue

rossom wrote: »

Great shout on Highland Colori lads.

Aidan I think Chapoturgeon looks a very doubtful stayer over this trip. If Mossey doesn't win then I hope he does.

Probably right, but he stayed on well just behind Salsify 19months ago at the festival over slight shorter on a much tougher course. If Mossey Joe makes this a test then I would think Chap wouldnt have much of a chance, but if its run in the usual hunter chase style, he could finish the race well. I probably recon 8.0 is a bit big for him..

3ndahalfof6

TAMMYS HILL for me @ 11/2 also going to have a few EW on RUMBURY GREY 20/1

Pinesky

Clutching at straws but could beach of falesa defy Ana O Brien here good ew chance in last run

rossom

aidankkk wrote: »

Probably right, but he stayed on well just behind Salsify 19months ago at the festival over slight shorter on a much tougher course. If Mossey Joe makes this a test then I would think Chap wouldnt have much of a chance, but if its run in the usual hunter chase style, he could finish the race well. I probably recon 8.0 is a bit big for him..

I don't think Mossey will set off from the front from the outset but I think he'll jump his way into the lead in the first half of the race if the pace isn't overly quick.